SocialCom 2011 Presentation

1. AN AGENT-BASED
MODEL OF EPIDEMIC
SPREAD USING HUMAN
MOBILITY AND SOCIAL
NETWORKS
E. Frias-Martinez, G. Williamson, V. Frias-Martinez
Telefonica Research, Madrid, Spain
efm@tid.es

2. Epidemic Disease Models
 Compartmental Models (SEIR)
Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered
Contact Transition Recovery
Rate Rate Rate
 Agent Based Models
 Capure complexity of social interaction
 Limitation with the information available to generate the
agents

3. Digital Footprints
For the first time in human history, we have
access to large-scale human behavioral data
at varying levels of spatial and temporal
granularities

4. Ce ll Phone N e t w ork
Cell Phone networks are built using Base Transceiver Stations (BTS)
Each BTS will be characterized by a feature vector that describes t
calling behavior area.

5. 2233445566|3E884DB|15/02/2011|23:02:35|...
2233445567|3E884DC|16/02/2011|23:02:35|...
2233445568|3E884DD|17/02/2011|23:02:35|...
2233445569|3E884E5|18/02/2011|23:02:35|...
URBAN 1-4km²

7. ABM for Virus Spreading using CDR
Mobility Model
Social Network
Model
Disease Model

8. M3 S3 D3
M2 S2 D2
M1 S1 D1
Social Network
Mobility Model Disease Model
Model
t₀ t₁ t₂ t₃ … t₉ (1 hour)
Identify geographical location (BTS)
Identify peers in same BTS
If peer in SN then evolve disease model with p_i
Else evolve disease model with p_j

9. Closed Reopen
Preflu 27th April 6th May
Alert Shutdown
17th April 1st May
Measure the impact that government alerts had on the population
Flu is very good candidate to be modelled by SEIR

10.  Call Detail Records from 1st Jan. till 31st.May 2009
 Compute mobility and social models
 Baseline scenario
 Intervention scenario
 Simulation April 17th to May 16th
 “Evolve” disease and evaluate impact in
 Agent’s mobility
 Disease transmission
 Spatio-temporal evolution

11. Agent Generation
 Call Detail Records from 1st Jan. till 31st.May 2009
 Granularity of 1 hour
 20% of slots filled /0.25 calls per hour
 Agents active during the different time periods
 Final number of agents: 25,000
 Reproduction number / Latent period / infectious
period obtained from the literature.

12. April 27th May 1st May 6th
Mobility reduced between
10% and 30%
Alert Closed Shutdown Reopen
Intervention

13. Baseline (“preflu” behavior all weeks)
Intervention (alert,closed,shutdown)
Epidemic peak postponed 40
hours
Reduced number of infected
in peak agents by 10%

14. March 8thMay 14th
April 29th
May 3rd

15. Future

16. Enriched Agents (Gender, Age, Vaccinations)
Methodology for studying spatio-temporal
evolution.