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Global
                                                    Nuclear
                                                     Power




Goldman Sachs                                       Edward Kee
Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference      +1 (202) 370 7713
19 May 2009                                 edk@edwardkee.com
Disclaimer


    These slides that follow do not provide a complete record of this
    presentation and discussion.
    The views expressed in this presentation are mine; these views may
    not be the same as those held by my clients or my colleagues.




2   Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                       Edward Kee LLC
Global nuclear update

•   Important events in the last year
•   Global nuclear development
•   Global vendor race
•   US projects and likely timing




3   Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference   Edward Kee LLC
Important events in the last year


Nuclear renaissance – overtaken by events?

• High capital cost estimates pervasive
    – Conservative, so less chance of cost overruns
    – But, nuclear economics now not so good
• Economic depression/recession
    –   Difficult to finance large capital projects
    –   Electricity demand lower, need for new capacity lower/later
    –   Natural gas cheaper, may return to electricity generation
    –   Power plant commodity prices down, may lower capital cost
• Climate change
    – Emphasis on renewable energy
    – Nuclear not in stimulus bill or energy bills
    – Carbon benefits for nuclear still unclear



4   Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                                 Edward Kee LLC
Important events in the last year


Strong nuclear support in March 09 surveys


    “Do you favor the use of nuclear to                               “Should your country start using or
      produce electricity in the US?”                                increase the use of nuclear power?”


                                                            India                67%                  29%       4%

                                                           China                62%                29%       9%
                                         27%
              41%                                        S. Africa              55%              33%        12%

                                                             USA                57%             24%      19%
                                    32%
                                                           World          29%           40%            31%

                                                                     0%                                      100%
     Strongly favor           Favor        Don't favor           Yes       Yes, if concerns addressed          No



5      Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                                                     Edward Kee LLC
Important events in the last year

Energy
density

to produce
1 GWh of
electricity




                                Uranium (5% enriched)                 Coal
    Fuel                                        3 kg              400,000 kg
                                           (300 cubic cm)     (265 cubic meters)
    Waste                        3 kg (w/o reprocessing)     1,090,000 kg of CO2 +
                                .1 kg (with reprocessing)   NOx, SOx, particulates,
                                                             arsenic, mercury, etc


6    Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                                       Edward Kee LLC
Important events in the last year


Nuclear energy = renewable?

• Exelon Energy -
  Emission-Free
  Energy
  Certificate
  (EFEC)
• RWE -
  ProCLimate 2011
  in Germany
• Atoomstroom.nl
  nuclear energy
  retailer in
  Netherlands


7   Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                        Edward Kee LLC
Important events in the last year


Yucca Mountain
• $13.5 billion spent on the project
• NRC license application in 2008
• John McCain: “Close it down,
  stop charging for it, and return
  the $22 billion collected to date.”




    Opinion
    March 13, 2009
    There Is No Such Thing as Nuclear Waste
    By WILLIAM TUCKER
    'White House Buries Yucca,quot; read the headlines last week after Secretary of Energy Steven
    Chu said the proposed storage of nuclear waste in a Nevada mountain is quot;no longer an
    option.quot;


8      Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                                       Edward Kee LLC
Important events in the last year


Rise of the i-nuke




    • Toshiba 4S (Super Safe, Small and Simple; 10 MWe)
    • Hyperion (25 MWe)
    • NuScale (40 MWe)
    • Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (200 MWe)



9   Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                        Edward Kee LLC
Global nuclear development


Global nuclear construction starts (MWe)
                                        2000 - 2008           2009 - 2018



     Gen III




     Gen II




                               AP1000            EPR   ABWR   VVER      CPR1000


10   Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                                   Edward Kee LLC
Operating (11 units, 8,587 MWe)                                       Global nuclear development
     Under Const. (17 units, 15,700 MWe)
     Planned (58 units, 58,500 MWe)                Hongyanhe (WaFangDian) 2 x CPR-1000, 2 x CPR-1000

                                                   Shidaowan 1 x HTR-PM (200 MW PBMR) , 4 x CPR1000
                                                   Rushan / Hongshiding 6 x CPR1000
                                                   HaiYang 6 x AP1000
 Beijing                                           Tianwan 2 x AES 91 VVER , 2 x AES 91 VVER

                                                   Lianyungang 6 x CPR1000
                                                   Wuhu / Bamaoshan 4 x CPR1000
        China


                                                   Qinshan I II III 1 x 279 MW PWR, 2 x CNP-600, 2 x CANDU-6
                                                   Qinshan IV 2 x CNP-600
                                                   Fangjiashan / Qinshan V 2 x CPR1000

                                                   Sanmen 1 x AP1000 , 1 x AP1000
                                                   Xianning 4 x CPR1000

                                                   Ningde 2 x CPR1000, 4 x CPR1000

                                                   Fuqing 2 x CPR1000, 4 x CPR1000

                                                   Daya Bay 2 x 944 MW PWR
                                                   LingAo 2 x CPR1000, 2 x CPR1000

                                                   Taishan 2 x EPR
                                                   YangJiang 2 x CPR1000, 4 x CPR1000
                                                   Bailong 6 x CPR1000
                                                   Changjiang / Hainan Island 2 x CNP-600
11     Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                                                 Edward Kee LLC
Operating (31 units, 21,983 MWe)                                                     Global nuclear development
     Under Const. (9 units, 6,755 MWe)
                                                                         Bilibino 4 x 11 MWe LWGR
     Planned (11 units, 13,200 MWe)
                                                   Baltic/Kaliningrad 2 x 1200 MWe VVER

                                                      Kola 4 x 411 MWe VVER

                                                                Leningrad 4 x 925 MWe RBMK, 1 x 1200 MWe, VVER MWe VVER
                                                                                                          3 x 1200

                                                                Severodvinsk 2 x 40 MWe KLT PWR

                                                                Tver 1x 1200 MWe VVER

                                                                Kalinin 3 x 950 MWe,VVER MWe VVER
                                                                                    1 x 950

                                                                Smolensk 3 x 925 MWe RBMK

                                                                Nishhegorod 1x 1200 MWe VVER

                                                                Kursk 4 x 925 MWe,RBMK MWe RBMK
                                                                                   1 x 925


      Moscow                                          Novovoronezh 2 x 385 MWe, 1 x 950 MWe ,VVER
                                                                                              1 x 1200 MWe , 1 x 1200 MWe VVER
                                                                                                           VVER

                                                                Balakovo 4 x 950 MWe VVER MWe VVER
                                                                                     , 1 x 950

                                                        Rostov/Volgodonsk 1 x 950 MWe VVER MWe , 2 x 1200 MWe VVER
                                                                                      , 1 x 950 VVER

                                                                Beloyarsk 1 x BN600 , 1 x BN800

                                                                      Sversk/Tomsk 1 x1200 MWe VVER




              Russia
12     Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                                                            Edward Kee LLC
Operating (17 units, 3,779 MWe)                                                  Global nuclear development
     Under Const. (6 units, 2,910 MWe)
     Planned (10 units, 11,360 MWe)




                                                   Narora 2 x 202 MWe PHWR




                                                   Rajasthan 1 x 90, 1 x 187, 2 x 202 MWe PHWR MWe ,PHWR MWe PHWR
                                                                                          , 2 x 202  2 x 640

                                                   Kakrapar 2 x 202 MWe , 2 x 640 MWe PHWR
                                                                        PHWR


                                                   Tarapur 2 x 150 MWe BWR, 2 x 490 MWe PHWR

                                                   Jaitapur 2 x 1600 MWe PWR

                                                   Kaiga 3 x 202 MWe PHWR MWe PHWR , 2 x 1600 MWe PWR
                                                                     , 1 x 202

                                                   Madras/Kalpakkam 2 x 202 MWe PHWR , 1 x 470 MWe FBR


                                                   Kudankulam 2 x 917 MWe ,VVER
                                                                            2 x 1200 MWe VVER




India
13     Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                                                         Edward Kee LLC
Global nuclear development


MENA and SA and Turkey

•    Iran - Bushehr VVER in testing now
•    UAE - moving very fast
•    Turkey - Russian nuclear IPP/BOO deal (maybe 4 units)
•    Jordan and Egypt - looking to take next steps
•    Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, GCC - interested
•    South Africa - on hold




14   Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                  Edward Kee LLC
Global nuclear development


Europe

•    UK - EdF acquires BE; nuclear site auctions
•    Sweden - overturns nuclear phase out
•    Germany - rethinking of nuclear phase-out
•    France - may build more new units
•    Italy - now looking at nuclear
•    Finland - windfall profits tax, another new unit
•    Eastern Europe/Baltic - projects moving ahead




15   Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                  Edward Kee LLC
Vendor market share


 Vendor market share - US Gen III
AP1000                                                 12                            2

 ABWR                        4                              &


     EPR            2              1

 APWR               2

ESBWR               2                                  ?
            0                2                     4   6          8   10      12          14           16

       In operation                          Under construction       Development          Planned


Source: EDK analysis, April 2009


16     Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                                           Edward Kee LLC
Vendor market share


 Vendor share – non-US Gen III
     VVER         2                       7                             14                   4

     ABWR              4             2                9                              &

  AP1000          2         2             4

      EPR         2         2        2

APR-1400          2         2

     APWR         2
              0                       5              10            15           20           25               30

       In operation                           Under construction             Development          Planned


Source: EDK analysis; April 2009


17     Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                                                  Edward Kee LLC
Other potential topics


Nuclear vendor business model
                       Total                                              Chinese   Rosatom
                                                      AECL
     Government role



                                                                  KHNP


                                                              AREVA




                                                        Toshiba

                                                  Hitachi
                                                             Mitsubishi




                                Westinghouse
                       None
                               Low                                                     High
                                                     Vertical integration
18    Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                                               Edward Kee LLC
US Nuclear industry activity


The first wave of nuclear in the US
 Prepare and support COL

     Order long-lead items
                                                                                         Commercial
                  COL review                                                              operation
                        Site preparation                                           Start-up
                                                                                    testing
                EPC and other contracts                                     Fuel load

                       Arrange financing                                ITAAC

                                                                Construction




     2008                  2010                   2012   2014       2016          2018            2020


19    Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                                            Edward Kee LLC
US Nuclear industry activity


 What will the second wave look like?
           US COL & DC filings                             Second wave
                                                         construction starts
                    US First wave
                    construction begins
                                                            US first wave
                    First COL approvals                      plants begin
                                                                operation



      2008                   2010                      2015                       2020
                                OL-3                    First UAE
 China,                         EPR                     unit COD
Finland                         COD                        Ontario
 & EdF                              Flamanville            COD
building                            EPR COD
  Ontario                              First Chinese                        Many uncertainties about
  vendor                               AP1000 COD                           new nuclear resolved –
  selection                                                                 much lower risk for 2nd
      UAE vendor                                                            wave investors
      selection




 20    Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                                             Edward Kee LLC
US Nuclear industry activity

Nuclear-related developments


•    DOE Loan Guarantees
•    Litigation cases
•    No nuclear in stimulus bill
•    NRC process
•    State regulatory actions




21   Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                   Edward Kee LLC
FERC repeals laws of physics and economics

• 22 April 2009 (Earth Day) – FERC Chairman Jon Wellinghoff
  decides that baseload power is no longer needed.
• “People talk about, 'Oh, we need baseload.' It's like people saying
  we need more computing power, we need mainframes. We don't
  need mainframes, we have distributed computing.”
• “I think baseload capacity is going to become an anachronism,”
  he said. “Baseload capacity really used to only mean in an
  economic dispatch, which you dispatch first, what would be the
  cheapest thing to do. Well, ultimately wind's going to be the
  cheapest thing to do, so you'll dispatch that first.”




22   Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                Edward Kee LLC
Edward Kee
                                                    +1 (202) 370 7713
                                                 edk@edwardkee.com




23   Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference                Edward Kee LLC

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2009 05 19 EDK Goldman Sachs Pwr and Utility Conf Final

  • 1. Global Nuclear Power Goldman Sachs Edward Kee Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference +1 (202) 370 7713 19 May 2009 edk@edwardkee.com
  • 2. Disclaimer These slides that follow do not provide a complete record of this presentation and discussion. The views expressed in this presentation are mine; these views may not be the same as those held by my clients or my colleagues. 2 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 3. Global nuclear update • Important events in the last year • Global nuclear development • Global vendor race • US projects and likely timing 3 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 4. Important events in the last year Nuclear renaissance – overtaken by events? • High capital cost estimates pervasive – Conservative, so less chance of cost overruns – But, nuclear economics now not so good • Economic depression/recession – Difficult to finance large capital projects – Electricity demand lower, need for new capacity lower/later – Natural gas cheaper, may return to electricity generation – Power plant commodity prices down, may lower capital cost • Climate change – Emphasis on renewable energy – Nuclear not in stimulus bill or energy bills – Carbon benefits for nuclear still unclear 4 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 5. Important events in the last year Strong nuclear support in March 09 surveys “Do you favor the use of nuclear to “Should your country start using or produce electricity in the US?” increase the use of nuclear power?” India 67% 29% 4% China 62% 29% 9% 27% 41% S. Africa 55% 33% 12% USA 57% 24% 19% 32% World 29% 40% 31% 0% 100% Strongly favor Favor Don't favor Yes Yes, if concerns addressed No 5 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 6. Important events in the last year Energy density to produce 1 GWh of electricity Uranium (5% enriched) Coal Fuel 3 kg 400,000 kg (300 cubic cm) (265 cubic meters) Waste 3 kg (w/o reprocessing) 1,090,000 kg of CO2 + .1 kg (with reprocessing) NOx, SOx, particulates, arsenic, mercury, etc 6 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 7. Important events in the last year Nuclear energy = renewable? • Exelon Energy - Emission-Free Energy Certificate (EFEC) • RWE - ProCLimate 2011 in Germany • Atoomstroom.nl nuclear energy retailer in Netherlands 7 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 8. Important events in the last year Yucca Mountain • $13.5 billion spent on the project • NRC license application in 2008 • John McCain: “Close it down, stop charging for it, and return the $22 billion collected to date.” Opinion March 13, 2009 There Is No Such Thing as Nuclear Waste By WILLIAM TUCKER 'White House Buries Yucca,quot; read the headlines last week after Secretary of Energy Steven Chu said the proposed storage of nuclear waste in a Nevada mountain is quot;no longer an option.quot; 8 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 9. Important events in the last year Rise of the i-nuke • Toshiba 4S (Super Safe, Small and Simple; 10 MWe) • Hyperion (25 MWe) • NuScale (40 MWe) • Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (200 MWe) 9 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 10. Global nuclear development Global nuclear construction starts (MWe) 2000 - 2008 2009 - 2018 Gen III Gen II AP1000 EPR ABWR VVER CPR1000 10 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 11. Operating (11 units, 8,587 MWe) Global nuclear development Under Const. (17 units, 15,700 MWe) Planned (58 units, 58,500 MWe) Hongyanhe (WaFangDian) 2 x CPR-1000, 2 x CPR-1000 Shidaowan 1 x HTR-PM (200 MW PBMR) , 4 x CPR1000 Rushan / Hongshiding 6 x CPR1000 HaiYang 6 x AP1000 Beijing Tianwan 2 x AES 91 VVER , 2 x AES 91 VVER Lianyungang 6 x CPR1000 Wuhu / Bamaoshan 4 x CPR1000 China Qinshan I II III 1 x 279 MW PWR, 2 x CNP-600, 2 x CANDU-6 Qinshan IV 2 x CNP-600 Fangjiashan / Qinshan V 2 x CPR1000 Sanmen 1 x AP1000 , 1 x AP1000 Xianning 4 x CPR1000 Ningde 2 x CPR1000, 4 x CPR1000 Fuqing 2 x CPR1000, 4 x CPR1000 Daya Bay 2 x 944 MW PWR LingAo 2 x CPR1000, 2 x CPR1000 Taishan 2 x EPR YangJiang 2 x CPR1000, 4 x CPR1000 Bailong 6 x CPR1000 Changjiang / Hainan Island 2 x CNP-600 11 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 12. Operating (31 units, 21,983 MWe) Global nuclear development Under Const. (9 units, 6,755 MWe) Bilibino 4 x 11 MWe LWGR Planned (11 units, 13,200 MWe) Baltic/Kaliningrad 2 x 1200 MWe VVER Kola 4 x 411 MWe VVER Leningrad 4 x 925 MWe RBMK, 1 x 1200 MWe, VVER MWe VVER 3 x 1200 Severodvinsk 2 x 40 MWe KLT PWR Tver 1x 1200 MWe VVER Kalinin 3 x 950 MWe,VVER MWe VVER 1 x 950 Smolensk 3 x 925 MWe RBMK Nishhegorod 1x 1200 MWe VVER Kursk 4 x 925 MWe,RBMK MWe RBMK 1 x 925 Moscow Novovoronezh 2 x 385 MWe, 1 x 950 MWe ,VVER 1 x 1200 MWe , 1 x 1200 MWe VVER VVER Balakovo 4 x 950 MWe VVER MWe VVER , 1 x 950 Rostov/Volgodonsk 1 x 950 MWe VVER MWe , 2 x 1200 MWe VVER , 1 x 950 VVER Beloyarsk 1 x BN600 , 1 x BN800 Sversk/Tomsk 1 x1200 MWe VVER Russia 12 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 13. Operating (17 units, 3,779 MWe) Global nuclear development Under Const. (6 units, 2,910 MWe) Planned (10 units, 11,360 MWe) Narora 2 x 202 MWe PHWR Rajasthan 1 x 90, 1 x 187, 2 x 202 MWe PHWR MWe ,PHWR MWe PHWR , 2 x 202 2 x 640 Kakrapar 2 x 202 MWe , 2 x 640 MWe PHWR PHWR Tarapur 2 x 150 MWe BWR, 2 x 490 MWe PHWR Jaitapur 2 x 1600 MWe PWR Kaiga 3 x 202 MWe PHWR MWe PHWR , 2 x 1600 MWe PWR , 1 x 202 Madras/Kalpakkam 2 x 202 MWe PHWR , 1 x 470 MWe FBR Kudankulam 2 x 917 MWe ,VVER 2 x 1200 MWe VVER India 13 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 14. Global nuclear development MENA and SA and Turkey • Iran - Bushehr VVER in testing now • UAE - moving very fast • Turkey - Russian nuclear IPP/BOO deal (maybe 4 units) • Jordan and Egypt - looking to take next steps • Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, GCC - interested • South Africa - on hold 14 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 15. Global nuclear development Europe • UK - EdF acquires BE; nuclear site auctions • Sweden - overturns nuclear phase out • Germany - rethinking of nuclear phase-out • France - may build more new units • Italy - now looking at nuclear • Finland - windfall profits tax, another new unit • Eastern Europe/Baltic - projects moving ahead 15 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 16. Vendor market share Vendor market share - US Gen III AP1000 12 2 ABWR 4 & EPR 2 1 APWR 2 ESBWR 2 ? 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 In operation Under construction Development Planned Source: EDK analysis, April 2009 16 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 17. Vendor market share Vendor share – non-US Gen III VVER 2 7 14 4 ABWR 4 2 9 & AP1000 2 2 4 EPR 2 2 2 APR-1400 2 2 APWR 2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 In operation Under construction Development Planned Source: EDK analysis; April 2009 17 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 18. Other potential topics Nuclear vendor business model Total Chinese Rosatom AECL Government role KHNP AREVA Toshiba Hitachi Mitsubishi Westinghouse None Low High Vertical integration 18 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 19. US Nuclear industry activity The first wave of nuclear in the US Prepare and support COL Order long-lead items Commercial COL review operation Site preparation Start-up testing EPC and other contracts Fuel load Arrange financing ITAAC Construction 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 19 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 20. US Nuclear industry activity What will the second wave look like? US COL & DC filings Second wave construction starts US First wave construction begins US first wave First COL approvals plants begin operation 2008 2010 2015 2020 OL-3 First UAE China, EPR unit COD Finland COD Ontario & EdF Flamanville COD building EPR COD Ontario First Chinese Many uncertainties about vendor AP1000 COD new nuclear resolved – selection much lower risk for 2nd UAE vendor wave investors selection 20 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 21. US Nuclear industry activity Nuclear-related developments • DOE Loan Guarantees • Litigation cases • No nuclear in stimulus bill • NRC process • State regulatory actions 21 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 22. FERC repeals laws of physics and economics • 22 April 2009 (Earth Day) – FERC Chairman Jon Wellinghoff decides that baseload power is no longer needed. • “People talk about, 'Oh, we need baseload.' It's like people saying we need more computing power, we need mainframes. We don't need mainframes, we have distributed computing.” • “I think baseload capacity is going to become an anachronism,” he said. “Baseload capacity really used to only mean in an economic dispatch, which you dispatch first, what would be the cheapest thing to do. Well, ultimately wind's going to be the cheapest thing to do, so you'll dispatch that first.” 22 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC
  • 23. Edward Kee +1 (202) 370 7713 edk@edwardkee.com 23 Ninth Annual Power and Utility Conference Edward Kee LLC