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Assessment of China ’ s Energy-Saving and Emission-Reduction Accomplishments and Opportunities  During the 11th Five Year Plan Findings and Recommendations Presentation for  ChinaFAQs: The Network for Climate and Energy Information Meeting World Resources Institute, Washington , DC December 2, 2009 Mark D. Levine and Lynn Price China Energy Group Energy Analysis Department Environmental Energy Technologies Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Context: Historical Trends in Energy Intensity in China Source: National Bureau of Statistics,  China Statistical Abstract , various years. Average Annual  Decline  of 5% per year Average Annual  Increase   of 2% per year
Context: China Adopted an Energy Intensity Reduction Target During the 11 th  Five-Year Plan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Context:  Recent Trends in Energy Intensity in China Source: National Bureau of Statistics,  China Statistical Abstract , various years. 1980-2002: Average Annual Decline of 5% per year 2002-2005: Average Annual Increase of 2% per year 2005-2006: 1.79% decrease 2006-2007: 4.04% decrease 2007-2008: 4.59% decrease
Frozen Baseline Development  and Energy Savings Assessment Energy use values are reported by NBS (NBS, 2007; NBS 2008). Energy intensity reduction values are from NDRC (NDRC, 2009a; NDRC, 2009b). GDP values were then derived using these two values. This method was chosen because the energy values and energy intensity reduction values were the most clearly reported values; GDP values have undergone a series of revisions and may continue to be revised.
11th FYP Energy-Saving Targets and Savings to Date, 2006-2008, Based on Frozen 2005 Efficiency Baseline  Note: Individual program savings do not add up to the Total Primary Energy Savings value because of overlap between the Ten Key Projects and the Buildings Energy Efficiency and Top-1000 Programs. See report for details regarding how the total primary energy savings was calculated.
Caveats and Difficulties ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Findings:  Overall 20% Energy Intensity Goal ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Findings:  Energy-Saving Programs  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Findings:  Energy-Saving Programs - Ten Key Projects ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Findings:  Energy-Saving Programs - Buildings Breakdown of Building Sector Primary Energy-Saving Target in the 11th FYP (Mtce)  Source Cai, et al., 2009, Wu Y., 2009
F indings:  Energy-Saving Programs - Buildings LBNL Estimated 20 05-2008 Building Sector Primary Energy-Saving from the Programs and Policies implemented in 11 FYP (Mtce)
Findings:  Energy-Saving Programs - Buildings ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Findings:  Energy-Saving Programs - Buildings ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Findings:  Energy-Saving Programs - Top-1000  Program ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Findings:  Energy-Saving Programs - Top-1000  Program ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Findings:  Energy-Saving Programs   - Structural Adjustment ,[object Object],Source: NBS, various years. ,[object Object],[object Object],Share of Industrial Sector Energy Use in Total Energy Use, 2000-2007
Findings:  Energy-Saving Programs   - Small Plant Closures  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Findings:  Energy-Saving Programs   - Small Plant Closures  Small Plants Closure and Phase-Out of Outdated Capacity Results To Date, 2006-2008 Source: State Council, 2007a; Feng Fei et al., n.d.; *NDRC, 2009a and 2009b. Note: n/a = not available
Findings:  Energy-Saving Programs   - Small Plant Closures  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Findings:  Energy-Saving Programs - Appliance Standards and Energy-Efficiency Labels ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recommendations :  Overall ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recommendations :  20% Target ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recommendations :  Monitoring, Reporting, Verification ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recommendations :  Program Design  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recommendations :  Buildings Energy Efficiency ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recommendations :  Industrial Energy Efficiency ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recommendations :  Structural Optimization ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recommendations :  Appliance Standards and Energy-Efficiency Labels ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Acknowledgments ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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China's Energy-Saving Programs Assessment and Recommendations

  • 1. Assessment of China ’ s Energy-Saving and Emission-Reduction Accomplishments and Opportunities During the 11th Five Year Plan Findings and Recommendations Presentation for ChinaFAQs: The Network for Climate and Energy Information Meeting World Resources Institute, Washington , DC December 2, 2009 Mark D. Levine and Lynn Price China Energy Group Energy Analysis Department Environmental Energy Technologies Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
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  • 3. Context: Historical Trends in Energy Intensity in China Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Abstract , various years. Average Annual Decline of 5% per year Average Annual Increase of 2% per year
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  • 5. Context: Recent Trends in Energy Intensity in China Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Abstract , various years. 1980-2002: Average Annual Decline of 5% per year 2002-2005: Average Annual Increase of 2% per year 2005-2006: 1.79% decrease 2006-2007: 4.04% decrease 2007-2008: 4.59% decrease
  • 6. Frozen Baseline Development and Energy Savings Assessment Energy use values are reported by NBS (NBS, 2007; NBS 2008). Energy intensity reduction values are from NDRC (NDRC, 2009a; NDRC, 2009b). GDP values were then derived using these two values. This method was chosen because the energy values and energy intensity reduction values were the most clearly reported values; GDP values have undergone a series of revisions and may continue to be revised.
  • 7. 11th FYP Energy-Saving Targets and Savings to Date, 2006-2008, Based on Frozen 2005 Efficiency Baseline Note: Individual program savings do not add up to the Total Primary Energy Savings value because of overlap between the Ten Key Projects and the Buildings Energy Efficiency and Top-1000 Programs. See report for details regarding how the total primary energy savings was calculated.
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  • 12. Findings: Energy-Saving Programs - Buildings Breakdown of Building Sector Primary Energy-Saving Target in the 11th FYP (Mtce) Source Cai, et al., 2009, Wu Y., 2009
  • 13. F indings: Energy-Saving Programs - Buildings LBNL Estimated 20 05-2008 Building Sector Primary Energy-Saving from the Programs and Policies implemented in 11 FYP (Mtce)
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  • 20. Findings: Energy-Saving Programs - Small Plant Closures Small Plants Closure and Phase-Out of Outdated Capacity Results To Date, 2006-2008 Source: State Council, 2007a; Feng Fei et al., n.d.; *NDRC, 2009a and 2009b. Note: n/a = not available
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