2. Mobile Megatrends 2009 (excerpts)
Andreas Constantinou, Ph.D.
Research Director, VisionMobile

3. Business intelligence
selected VisionMobile analyst reports
Five Defining
The New Age of MDM Case
On-Device
Traits of Open
Handset Study: Motorola
Portals:
Source
Customisation: (Ovum)
Beyond WAP
(Informa)
2006-2011
(ARCchart)
(ARCchart)
GPLv2 vs GPLv3
Firmware OTA:
Mobile
High-Capacity
White Paper
From Hype to
Operating
SIMs
Market Reality
Systems: The
(Informa)
(ARCchart)
New Generation
Mobile Software Open Source in
Activating the Mobile
Management Mobile:
Idle Screen: Megatrends
Report 2007-2012
Uncharted 2008
(Informa)
Territory
(Informa)

4. Market-how maps
distilling market noise into market sense
Mobile Industry Atlas The 100 million club
:a visual map of who's who in the : the watchlist of software companies
mobile handset industry, showcasing whose products have been embedded
400+ leading companies across 30 on more than 100 million cellular
market sectors. handsets

5. The Eight Centers of Gravity

6. From horizontal to vertical structure
From the vertically integrated devices 20 years ago, to the horizontal enabler era of ODMs and
OSes, and again to a vertical integration of hardware + software + services with Nokia, Google et al
start
based on the Double Helix by Charles Fine

7. Centers of Gravity
Eight Centres of Gravity: consolidation of
power
Google, LiMo, Nokia, Qualcomm, Apple, Microsoft, Adobe, Intel are building vertically
integrated solutions and related ecosystems, in effect: Centres of Gravity
Google, LiMo, Nokia, Qualcomm, Apple, Microsoft, Adobe, Intel
are building vertically integrated solutions and related ecosystems
in effect: Centres of Gravity
ecosystem players
vertical solution

8. Consolidation of power
Starting from software or hardware, and building upwards
the value wars are moving up the stack!

9. Consolidation of power

10. Outlook
- RIM aggressively moving into forming a centre of gravity
- LiMo’s future is uncertain: A la carte approach of software standardisation
is not viable
- Will Adobe capitalise on its impressive addressable market (40% of
handsets sold) or will it suffer from same setbacks as Sun’s Java?
- Can Sony Ericsson elevate Capuchin from a toolkit to a platform?
- Will Nokia divorce its Internet and manufacturing personae?
-Plus: networks are now moving into horizontal structure; see the MVNO
growth in Europe and the NaaS phenomenon
(see visionmobile.com/megatrends)

11. Open is the New Closed

12. Open is the New Closed
- Open source is moving from early adoption to maturity across all
handset OEMs
- Multiple major mobile open source efforts: Android, Symbian/S60, LiMo,
Qt, WebKit, Java ME, MIDP3, AOL OMP, Qt, GTK, Eclipse IDE,..
Key benefits:
- Shares cost and risk of developing software building blocks
- Speeds up innovation via third party contributions
Key risks:
- Lack of education and established best practices in mobile OSS

13. Licenses vs Governance models
license type
Proprietary
community
license
dual license
(commercial +
paid-for
copyleft)
Funambol Rhomobile OKL4 phoneME
strong copyleft
(GPL)
hobbyists
Linux
kernel
weak copyleft
GTK+ (LGPL, MPL,
platform
Foundation Foundation EPL, ..)
Participating developers
Qt
GTK+
non-copyleft
(APL, others)
Android
OMP Moto
MIDP3
permissive
(BSD, MIT, ..)
WebKit
opinion moderator members only single
leaders based company
governance model

14. Licenses vs Governance models
which licenses and governance models are commonly used?
license type
Proprietary
community
license
dual license
(commercial +
paid-for
copyleft)
Funambol Rhomobile OKL4 phoneME
strong copyleft
(GPL)
hobbyists
Linux
kernel
similar license, weak copyleft
GTK+ (LGPL, MPL,
varied governance platform
Foundation Foundation EPL, ..)
Participating developers
Qt
GTK+
non-copyleft
(APL, others)
Android
OMP Moto
MIDP3
permissive
(BSD, MIT, ..)
WebKit
opinion moderator members only single
leaders based company
governance model

15. Licenses vs Governance models
While:
- Licenses are standardised, converged and well understood
4 licenses used most often in mobile projects (LGPL, EPL, APL, BSD)
- Governance models are proprietary, diverging and poorly understood
And while:
- Licenses are about source control
source code access, modification, contribution and distribution
- Governance is about product control
product modification, forking, roadmap, IPR, membership fees..

16. How open is an OSS project?
Some questions to ask:
- Is the source code publically available or to members only?
Are code check-ins publically accessible ?
Are the minutes from meetings publically availably?
Are there any fees or contractual commitments (NDAs, etc) required for members?
Who has access to check-in code? (and what is the process/medium for check-ins)
- Who has the authority to release code and binaries (how is the release schedule
determined)?
Who is entitled to branch source code ?
How is the roadmap formed ? What is the process and who has voting rights ?
Are IP rights (patents, copyrights, etc) of contributions maintained or automatically
transferred?
- Do contributors have to transfer patents contained in the contributions ?
- Are there any safe harbour provisions for contributors to the source code ?

17. Open is the New Closed
Governance models allow OSS use while maintaining control
LiMo Foundation: open by inheritance
Open because its members’ handsets are built on top of the Linux kernel
Zero community contributions in two years since foundation (hired community manager in 4Q08).
Only 40% of R1 code is OSS, rest is proprietary
Symbian Foundation: open source capitalism
Open to compete with Android, marginalise Windows Mobile and make UIQ/MOAP irrelevant
Open so as to reduce barriers to innovation, while lowering costs and risk of software development
Nokia will have most influence over roadmap due to gravity of contributions: open source capitalism
Android: open as a Trojan horse
Members can access code, but Google controls commits and product management
Commercial agreements allow Google to bundle apps and services on Android handsets

18. Thank you!
contact:
andreas@visionmobile.com
@andreascon
For more trends:
Mobile Megatrends 2009
visionmobile.com/megatrends
Mobile Open Source: workshop
covering economics, licensing, governance models,
communities, operating systems, standards, case studies and
strategies.
visionmobile.com/workshops