1. A
Licence?
A
Licence!
A
short
story
about
movies
and
games,
data
and
research,
and
the
reason
why
you
should
spend
some
;me
on
improving
your
data
research
capabili;es
if
you
want
to
be
successful
in
the
games
industry.
RIT
-­‐
Rochester
10.9.2012
Jörg
Müller-­‐Lietzkow

2. Movies
and
Games.
A
difficult
rela;onsship

3. We
all
know
Captain
Jack
Sparrow
...
And
(his)
poor
Games
• A
few
ques;ons
in
the
first
place:
– Have
you
ever
played
a
„perfect“
licensed
game?
– Do
you
think
licensed
games
are
a
good
thing?
– Are
you
willing
to
pay
for
a
licence?
– Is
the
connec;on
between
licence
and
movie
content
important
for
you?
• What
does
that
mean
from
an
industry
perspec;ve?

4. Pirates
of
the
Caribbean
h[p://www.the-­‐numbers.com/movies/series/PiratesOfTheCaribbean.php

5. The
easy
way?
Platform) Yearly)(change)) Total)
3DS$ 6,435,214$ (,51%)$ 19,438,733$
PS3$ 5,565,017$ (,61%)$ 65,954,175$
X360$ 4,265,747$ (,69%)$ 67,938,578$
Wii$ 2,806,053$ (,76%)$ 96,420,626$
PSV$ 2,243,127$ (+366%)$ 2,691,443$
PSP$ 2,071,631$ (,72%)$ 74,902,884$
DS$ 1,654,026$ (,81%)$ 151,936,056$
Total) 25,040,815) (;64%)) ))
!
h[p://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/2012/Global/;
1.9.12

6. A
licence
to
kill
...
What
is
the
real
money
value?

7. Why
does
it
ma[er?
Sources(for(Revenue( 1980( 2000( 2010(
Cinema' 75' 34' 30'
Home'Entertainment'(DVD,'BR'etc.)' 5' 40' 20'
TV' 18' 20' 20'
PayAperAView' 2' 4' 20'
Internet,'Mobile,'Merchandising' 0' 2' 10'
'
(Wendling
2012:
87)
• Recouping
a
franchise
is
ge_ng
more
complex.
• In
a
transforming
games
industry
the
meaning
of
licences
is
unpredictable
(e.g.
Star
Trek
(Gameforge);
Ba[lestar
Galac;ce
(Bigpoint)).

8. Licences
could
be
magical
• Licences
tend
to
be
a
„save
bet“
in
the
movie
business.
If
a
first
movie
does
well
200
mio.
US-­‐$
produc;on
costs
will
be
no
problem
for
the
successor.
• The
value
of
a
licence
from
a
successful
movie
series
rises
over
the
;me
but
it
also
can
decline
if
you
create
one
bad
product
(hit
driven
business).
• The
real
magic
is
the
leverage
effect
of
a
licence.

9. Terminate
imagina;on
100
Mio.
US-­‐$
will
do
it!
Top
Filmstudios
Revenues
in
US-­‐cinemas
2009
2.000,00
1.800,00
1.836
1.600,00
1.400,00
1.413
1.339
1.200,00
1.000,00
1.067
943
800,00
600,00
400,00
200,00
0,00
Warner
Bros.
Paramount
Sony
Pictures
Buena
Vista
20th
Century
Pictures
Fox

10. Worldwide
Cinema
Revenues
in
Billion
US-­‐$
MPAA
2012,
Theatrical
Market
Sta;s;cs
2011:
4

11. Save
Bet
–
Some
proof
h[p://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-­‐grossing_films,
31.8.12

12. Change...
And
Rise
• Some;mes
even
licences
do
need
a
„new
start“
(reboot
them!).
• Change
is
a
chance
as
well
as
a
big
risk.
The
blockbuster
business
is
like
playing
with
fire.
• Movie
Licences
will
remain
as
a
stable
cultural
artefact
–
games
mostly
not.

13. Batman
Franchise
h[p://www.the-­‐numbers.com/movies/series/Batman.php

14. Reboot
me
please!
• Nearly
every
successful
blockbuster
franchise
elder
than
10
years
got
a
reboot
during
the
last
decade
(Batman,
Bond,
Spiderman
etc.).
• Reboo;ng
means
more
then
remaking.
Reboo;ng
means
a
chance
to
enhance
the
franchise.

15. Even
huge
franchises
can
fail!
„Why
People
Were
Excited:
Terminator
3
was
a
big
old
let-­‐down,
but
this
new
take
on
the
franchise
looked
set
to
return
things
to
an
even
keel.
Even
though
McG
was
at
the
helm,
the
director
was
saying
saying
all
the
right
things
about
retaining
James
Cameron's
mythology,
while
in
ChrisBan
Bale,
the
film
had
a
heavyweight
lead
in
place.
The
stage
was
set
for
something
special.
Why
They
Ended
Up
Disappointed:
"I
feel
like
we
did
a
lot
right
with
Terminator
and
I
feel
like
we
did
a
lot
wrong,"
said
McG
with
the
benefit
of
hindsight.
In
fairness
to
him,
plenty
of
the
acBon
hits
the
spot,
but
it
never
really
feels
like
a
Terminator
movie,
not
least
because
the
characters
are
given
very
liHle
room
to
breathe
between
the
sound
and
fury
of
man
vs.
machine
combat.“
h[p://www.totalfilm.com/features/50-­‐most-­‐disappoin;ng-­‐movies-­‐of-­‐all-­‐;me/terminator-­‐salva;on-­‐2009
24.8.2012

16. Games
and
Movies
–
The
way
it
works!

17. Games
Market
Segementa;on
2012
(based
on
player
types)
High
Investment
(Money/Time)
New
emerging
markets
Core
Core
Console
PCGames
Games
Online
Browser
Gambling
Games
Skill
based
Old
Markets
MMOG/
Self
Games
MMORPG
Sub-­‐ Improve-­‐
ment
scrip@on
Exer-­‐games
Social
Core
Standard
Network
Casual
Games
Mobile
Games
Adgames
Low
Invest

18. Independence
creates
IP

19. Industry
Transforma;on
can
also
kill
a
high-­‐class
IP!

20. The
Lego
Trick
• Most
of
the
Lego-­‐
franchise
Franchises
work
very
well.
• The
core
market
differs
from
the
movie
core
market.
• Lego
is
accepted
by
parents.
• Humor
cracks
the
ice.

21. Another
„Save
Bet“?
• EA
(Movies):
– Ba[le
for
Middle-­‐Earth
I
&
II
– LotR:
The
Two
Towers
– LotR:
Return
of
the
King
– The
Third
Age
– LotR
Tac;cs
– Conquest
• Vivendi/Sierra
(Literature):
– The
Hobbit
– The
fellowship
of
the
Ring
– War
of
the
Ring
• Warner
Bros./Turbine
– Lord
of
the
Rings
Online
(+
Add
Ons)
– Aragorns
Quest
– War
in
the
North
– Guardians
of
Middle
Earth
– Lego
LotR

22. Data
–
No,
not
Mr.
Data
How
can
you
gather
the
data!
• DOs
– Use
publicly
available
data
bases
like
The
Numbers,
Boxofficemojo,
insidekino,
IMDB
etc.
– Cross-­‐evaluate
doe
to
special
interest
press
and
scien;fic
journals.
– Use
math
at
a
certain
point
but
do
not
underes;mate
bounded
ra;onality
– Factor
analysis
is
helpful
but
not
primarily.
– Develop
a
research
documentary
reprt.
• DON´Ts
– Google
is
not
your
only
friend.
– Wikipedia
is
helpful
but
not
accurate
enough.
– Don´t
hack
into
secured
data
bases.
– Don´t
believe
in
VGChartz,
dig
deeper!

23. Just
a
few
Conlclusions
• Not
every
licence
is
worth
a
game.
• Licences
are
linked
between
movies,
games
and
other
media
–
failing
one
could
affect
the
other.
• The
real
value
of
a
licence
is
owen
much
less
then
expected.
• Use
references
to
evaluate
an
IP/Franchise.
Beyond
that
comes
the
math.
• Try
to
work
on
a
licence
game.

24. Thank
You
for
your
a[en;on
and
enjoy
your
Coffee
Break!
Prof.
Dr.
Jörg
Müller-­‐Lietzkow
Universität
Paderborn
Fakultät
für
Kulturwissenschawen
Ins;tut
für
Medienwissenschawen,
Medienorganisa;on
und
Mediensysteme
Warburgerstr.
100,
Gebäude
E,
Raum
E2.324
33098
Paderborn
Germany
Telefon:
+495251/60
32
74
Handy:
+49178/5448978
Mail:
jml@mail.upb.de
Web:
h[p://www.morgsys.de
Skype:
joergmueller45