3. Disasters and Climate Change Scenario
Rate of increase of human Rate of Increase of Property
loss(1961‐1960 BS) loss(1961‐2060 BS)
7000
1200 1036
6000
1000
Human loss in %
Property loss in %
800 5000
600 4000
410 2639 Rate of
400 3000
162 Increase of
200 21 2000 Property
0 0 16
0 1000 loss, 223
loss, 223
‐200 0 ‐46 0
‐80
‐1000
Axis Title
Heavy precipitations
(rain or snow)
snow)
Storm (winds)
(winds)
River basin flooding
Hot & cold spells
Dust storms
Droughts Hail&Lightning
Flash floods
Avalanches
Mud & landslides

4. Humanitarian Impacts due to Hydro‐climatic Disasters
(
(Extreme Weather Impacts)
p )
Human Loss 10 Year Death & Property loss Loss (Property loss)
Death Property Linear Linear (Death)
y = 346.98x - 789.87
R2 = 0 6693 P
0.6693 Property Loss
t L
y = 75434x - 230976
4500 800000
R2 = 0.6064
4000 700000
P r o p e r t y lo s s in t h o u s a n d
3500 600000
3000 500000
2500
400000
D e a th
2000
i
Rs
300000
1500
200000
1000
500 100000
0 0
1961-70
1971-80
1981-90
1991-00
2001-10
2011-20
2021-30
2031-40
2041-50
2051-60
-500 -100000
-1000 -200000
Year
Y
Source : Paudel, D. 2006

5. Climate Change Scenario
(adopted from NDR,2009)
( d df NDR 2009)
• Nepal is the most vulnerable country to climate‐related
disasters due to increase in intensity and frequency of
disasters due to increase in intensity and frequency of
weather hazards(abrupt climate change)‐IPCC, 2007;
• Warming trends(1971‐94)‐ranging from 0.06 to 0.12 deg
cel; The hottest 5% of days and nights (1970‐1999);
• GCM projection: increase in temp over Nepal of 0.5‐2 deg
cel by 2030 and rising to 3 0‐6 3 deg by 2090;
by 2030 and rising to 3.0‐6.3 deg by 2090;
• The hottest days to be increased up to 55% by 2060s and
70% by 2090s;
• The hottest nights to be increased up to 77% by 2060s and
93% by 2090s;
• Precipitation changes in the monsoon: ‐14 to +40% by
h h b
2030s and increasing ‐52 to 135% by 2090s;

6. Climate Change
• IPCC defined "climate change" as: "a change of climate which is
attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to
natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods".
k|ToIf jf ck|ToIf ?kn] dfgljo lqmofsnfksf] sf/0fn]
k[YjLsf jfo'd08nsf
kYjLsf] jfod08nsf tTjx?df cfPsf] kl/jt{gn] jiff}{ b]lv
cfPsf kl/jtgn jiff blv
/lxcfPsf] k|fs[lts xfjfkfgLdf ePsf] kl/jt{gnfO{ g}
Cli t Change elgG5 .
Climate Ch
• IPCC refers to any significant change in climatic elements (temp,
pptn or wind) long term for an extended period( decades or longer)
pptn or wind) long‐term for an extended period( decades or longer)
• Climate change refers to any significant change in measures of
climate (such as temperature, precipitation, or wind) lasting for an
extended period (decades or longer).
extended period (decades or longer)

7. The Linkage: Climate Change and Climate
Disasters
Anthropogenic (Global Warming)
Climate Change( Abrupt Climate Change)
Rise in LST and SST
Variation in Precipitation Ice Melting and SLR
Flood Drought Cyclone and Storm Surge
Impacts on Livelihoods Assets (Loss of Property + Injury+ Death)
Disasters

8. Linkages between CC and Disasters
Linkages between CC and Disasters
Disaster Or Risk = Hazard* X Vulnerability
/(Capacity)
Hazard* : ( Extreme weather events) as a Result of CC
* ( )
CC affects disaster risk by two ways: 1.through the likely increase in
weather and climate hazards;
weather and climate hazards;
2. Increase in vulnerability of communities to natural hazards
through Ecosystem Degradation‐reduction in water and food
availability and changes to livelihoods;
il bilit d h t li lih d

9. Climate Change leads weathers
• Climate Variability: Unequal distribution of normal weather
system(amount, timing and intensity) with time and space
• The intensity and frequency of rainfall varies with Space and Time
The intensity and frequency of rainfall varies with Space and Time
For example: annual ppt in Mahabharat region(2500‐3000mm) and
cloudburst causes heavy rain suddenly like 500mm/day‐such cloudbursts‐
may occur at intervals of about 8‐10 years(NDR,2009)
• Extreme Rainfall Events
• More heat waves
More heat waves
• Increased drought
• Increased frequency of high ppt in particular regions
• Increases in the number & intensity of strong cyclone
• Higher temp and melting glaciers

10. Extreme Rainfall Events(>300 mm per day)‐
( p y)
Source: Paudel Deepak, 2001)
Period AD Frequency(extre
me rainfall)
me rainfall)
1950‐1970 4
1971‐1980 19
1981‐1990 33
1991‐2000 20 (beyond 1997 adopted from
NDR,2009)

11. CCA and DRR
CCA: The adjustment DRR: Action taken to reduce
CCA: The adjustment DRR: Action taken to reduce
in natural or human the risk of disasters and the
adverse impacts of natural
adverse impacts of natural
systems in response to hazards through systematic
i
actual or expected efforts to analyze and
climatic stimuli or their manage the causes of
disasters, including through
effects, which
, avoidance of hazards and
id fh d d
moderated harm or improved preparedness for
exploits beneficial
exploits beneficial adverse events(UNISDR,
adverse events(UNISDR
opportunities (IPCC) 2004)

12. Adaptation and DRR
Adaptation thro gh DRR HFA and Cost
through DRR‐HFA and Cost‐
Effectiveness : Preparing risk assessments(HFA
5); Protecting Ecosystems(HFA4), Improving
5) Protecting Ecosystems(HFA4) Improving
agricultural practices(HFA 4); Managing water
resources(HFA4); Building settlements in safe
resources(HFA4) Building settlements in safe
zones; Developing early warning
systems(HFA2); Improving insurance coverage
systems(HFA2); Improving insurance coverage
and Developing social safety nets(HFA4)

13. Existing DRR
Disaster
Response
Impact
Operation
Post Disaster
Recovery short and long
Long terms
Preparedness
Pre Disaster
Mitigation Development
A Basic DMC,
Prevention

14. Adaptation to Climate Disaster Risk
Disaster
Response
Impact
Operation and Emergency Recovery
Development
EWS (Long terms recovery)
Preparedness Based on Scientific Climate certainities sector-wiise
PES
(Prevention & Mitigation)

15. Linking & diff CCA and DRR
Divergence
Di Convergence
C
DRR CCA
Relevant to all hazards Relevant to climate-
related h
l t d hazards
d
Origin and culture in Origin and culture in CCA specialists : being
humanitarian assistance scientific theory involved from all sectors
including DRR sector
Most concerned with the Most concerned with Existing climate variability
present risks the future is an entry point for CCA
Traditional/indigenous …. may be insufficient Examples where
knowledge at community level for resilience against integration of scientific
is basis for resilience types and scales of knowledge and traditional
risk yet to be
y knowledge for DRR
g
experienced. provides learning
opportunities
Traditional focus on Traditional focus on Climatic disaster is the
vulnerability reduction physical exposure product of climatic
extremes/variability(physic
al exposure) and
vulnerability

16. Linking & diff CCA and DRR (based on Tearfund,2008)
Divergence Convergence
DRR CCA
Practical application at local Theoretical application Climate change
level at local level adaptation gaining
experience through
practical; local application
Full range of established and
g Limited range of tools
g None, except increasing
, p g
developing tools1 under development recognition that more
adaptation tools are
needed
Funding stream ad hoc and Funding streams DRR community engaging
insufficient sizeable and climate change adaptation
increasing
i i funding
f di mechanisms
h i

17. Why are existing adopted measures unable
to withstand CDs?
ih d ?
• the design is made without adequate consideration of climate change. The
measures are taken as mal‐adaptation in DRR
measures are taken as mal adaptation in DRR
• It is not considered future risk to CC .
• the best practices of DRR are considered adaptive measures to reduce
p , p g y
climatic impacts. However, due to rapid change in climatic variability and
its uncertainty, the natural and human systems are facing challenges to
adapt climatic disasters.
Hence, it requires re‐shaping, re‐designing of development practices
Hence it requires re shaping re designing of development practices
including social and economic practices to respond effectively to newly
environmental changes especially climatic extremes.
• For this, HFA guideline and sustainable development strategy is to some
extent appropriate to address CC by incorporating scientific program for
i dd b i i i ifi f
CC monitoring.

18. DRR in CCRM Process
DRR in CCRM Process
• UNFCCC emphasizes capacities for coping with
U CCC e p as es capac t es o cop g t
extreme weather events through Bali Action
Plan’s(BAP)‐CoP13
• CoP 13 highlights Risk Management and Risk
Reduction Strategies‐risk sharing and transfer
mechanism;
h i
• BAP focuses on DRR through vulnerability
assessments, capacity buildings, and response
assessments capacity buildings and response
strategies and integration of actions into sectoral
national planning;
p g;

19. Contd…
With consultation of ISDR system and UNFCCC
parties, UNISDR has identified the three areas of
action:
1. Develop national coordination mechanisms to
link DRR and Adaptation‐National Platform for
DRR and the national climate change team;
2. Conduct a baseline assessment on the status of
DRR and Adaptation efforts‐HFA implementation;
3. Prepare Adaptation Plans drawing on the Hyogo
Framework‐NAPA Documentation

20. Contd..
• DRR sector is one of the major thematic
DRR sector is one of the major thematic
component in NAPA
• Agriculture and Food Security
Agriculture and Food Security
• Forest and Bio‐diversity
• Water and Energy
Water and Energy
• Climate Induced Disasters
• P bli H lth
Public Health; and
d
• Human Settlements and Infrastructures

21. Institutional tools for DRR and CCA)
Silent Features of Proposed DM Act‐200(2063)
Silent Features of Proposed DM Act‐200(2063)
•Provision for National Council for Disaster
Management(NCDM) to be chaired by HR Prime Minister
P lt t N ti l Di t M t A th it
•Proposal to set up National Disaster Management Authority
(NDMA) under the NCDM, to act as the focal point for disaster
management functions in Nepal from formulation of
appropriate strategies and plans to implementation and
appropriate strategies and plans to implementation and
supervision of disaster management activities
•Emphasizes on development of micro and macro hazard and
vulnerability maps for disaster prone areas to inform decision
vulnerability maps for disaster prone areas to inform decision
makers to address disaster risk reduction effectively

22. (NSDRM‐2009)
Guided by Priority Actions of HFA(2005‐2015) and is based on TDRM
( )
approach;
NSDRM have highlighted sectoral strategy(nine sectors):
Agriculture and food security ;
Agriculture and food security ;
Health and Nutrition;
Education;
Shelter, infrastructures and physical planning;
, p y p g;
Livelihoods and Protection;
Water and Sanitation;
Forest and Soil Conservation;
Information, Communication, Coordination and Management, and Logistic;
Tracing, Rescue, Damage Assessment and Needs Analysis

23. • Institutional Framework
• National Council for Disaster Management (NCDM)
• National Disaster Management Authority(NDMA) and
Committees as a Secreteriate of NCDM
• Regional Disaster Management Committee;
• Di t i t Di t M
District Disaster Management Committee and Sub
tC itt dS b
committees
• Local Disaster Management Committee
Local Disaster Management Committee
• Community Based Organizations;
• Disaster Management Authority at Local Level
g y

24. Conclusions and Recommendation: Policy Options
1. Enhance Scientific certainities
1 Enhance Scientific certainities
• Develop scientific programes for CC monitoring‐ well‐
equipped stations and longterm monitoring, networling
equipped stations and longterm monitoring networling
and cooperation
• Promote and apply regional climate model rather than
Promote and apply regional climate model rather than
Global climate model‐inoder to identify hot spots of CC;
2. Promote Mitigation Measures
g
Land use management for carbon sinks and reduced
emissions
Payment for ecosystem services(PES)
p g
Development of alternative technologies

25. 3. Adaptations measures
DRR and EWS
DRR and EWS
Support and promote community‐led adaptations
Pay more attention to sectors particularly water,
Pay more attention to sectors particularly water
agriculture, health, HM disaster risks into NAPA
p
Develeope IWRM
4. Public Awarness
Information to local community;
Enagement of the media and academia;
A fruitful facilitation of international policy diologe
and cooperation

26. 4/23/2010
Activities
Inception Workshop
DP-
DP-Net Consultation Induction Workshop
Literature Review
Workshop Transect Exercise (Gandak, Karnali and
Koshi))
Regional Workshop
Synthesis Workshop
Climate Change and Disaster
Wider Reference group consultation
workshop
Consultation with the group members
Climatic Condition
Introduction Regions Ecological zones Climate
Country Background
High Himal Mountain Tundra-type & Arctic
High Mountains Alpine/Sub-alpine
Middle mountain Hill Cool temperate
monsoon/Warm
temperate monsoon
Siwalik Hills Terai Hot monsoon &
Subtropical
Terai Hot monsoon & Tropical
600
Disaster Scenario
500 496.5
Rainfall (mm)
423.2
400 Climate Induced Disasters
300 295
263.5 Floods/flash floods/Glacial lake outburst
200 flood/Avalanche
140.6
100 21.9
21 9 26 34.5
60.4 67.5 11.5 17
Landslides
0 Forest fire/wild fire
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Months
Hailstorm/Windstrorm/Thunderbolt
Drought
Outbreak of certain diseases
Average of 30 years data (1976-2005), Monthly Rainfall (166 stations)
Practical Action, 2009
1

27. 4/23/2010
District vulnerability from
Floods/flash floods Floods
Impact is all over the country
Sarlahi
Among 75 districts, 49 are prone to floods Rautahat
Udayapur
Rupandehi
High impact in Terai Chitwan Tanahu
Saptari Kailali
Associated with rise in river bed level, bank cutting, Dhanusa Kanchanpur
siltation and deposition of silt on the fertile land
ilt ti dd iti f ilt th f til l d Mahottari Syangja
Sunsari Dailekh
Higher loss of lives and properties Sindhuli Lalitpur
Makwanpur Dang
More impact on Agriculture production, Parsa Bara
Infrastructure, Destruction of country transportation Siraha Banke
Morang Sindhupalchok
network Jhapa Kavrepalanchok
Nawalparasi Kathmandu
Bardiya Kaski
Glacial lake outburst floods Landslides/debris flow
By breaking the natural moraine dams Higher loss of lives (211 lives per annum)
Impact on the down stream community High Impact on mountain and hill region
GLOF potential lakes Major Highway linking the roads are
Tsho Rolpa, Imja, Thulagi, Lumding, Lower vulnerable
Barun and West Chamjang
District vulnerability from Thunderstorm/windstorm/hailstorm
Landslides Thunderstorm- Claims lives
Makwanpur Sankhuwasabha
Nuwakot
Windstorm- Claims lives and public
Dhading
Syangja Gulmi properties
Kavrepalanchok Palpa
Sindhupalchok Myagdi Hailstorm- Destruction of crops specially in
Lamjung
Baglung
Kaski Parbat
the mountainous district
Dolakha Solukhumbu
Khotang Sindhuli
Taplejung Dailekh
Darchula
Drought
Okhaldhunga
Ramechhap Gorkha
Tanahu
Affects a large number of populations
Arghakhanchi
Bhojpur Jajarkot
Doti
Out of 75 district 40 district are food deficit
Panchthar
2

28. 4/23/2010
Heat and Cold Wave Disaster wise estimated losses (2001-2008)
(2001-
NRsx106
Lives killer
Year Floods and Fires Wind, Hail and Thunderstorm Earthquake
Now cold wave is getting severe Landslides
Forest fire 2001 919.4 239.25 128.32 1.99
2002 251.09 246.25 38.69 3.82
2003 4169.51 94.74 11.91 0
Increasing tendency of forest fire 2004 234.78 734.96 20.17 0
Last year it claimed 43 lives and caused a loss of 2005 219.29 121.03 0.77 0
about Rs 134,415,000 2006 131.56 247.75 2.65 0
2007 1831.54 228.76 24.15 0.07
Outbreak of Certain Diseases 2008 1538.04 803.22 149.17 0
Impacts of Climate Change Pattern of temperature increase
(1977-
(1977-1994)
Climate change will be expected to alter both
rainfall and snowfall patterns.
The temperature will increase and cause a
warming over the entire country.
The rate of temperature increase is greater in
higher altitudes and in the winter.
(Shrestha et al 1999)
General Circulation Models (GCM) projections indicate an increase
Districts with high increasing and decreasing trends of annual in temperature over Nepal of 0.5-2.0 °C, with a multi-model mean
temperature of 1.4 °C, by the 2030s, rising to 3.0-6.3 °C, with a multi-model
mean of 4.7 °C, by the 2090s. There is very little differentiation in
Annual Temperature High increasing trend High decreasing trend
projected multi-model mean temperature changes in different
regions (East, Central, West) of Nepal.
Maximum Dhankuta, Dadeldhura and Sankhuwasabha, Sunsari, GCM outputs suggest that extremely hot days (the hottest 5% of
Okhaldhunga Nawalparasi, Banke, Bardiya
days in the period 1970-1999) are projected to increase by up to
55% by the 2060s and 70% by the 2090s GCM outputs suggest that
Minimum Lamjung, southern parts of Nuwakot, Doti, Sankhuwasabha and northern extremely hot nights (the hottest 5% of nights in the period 1970-
Chitwan and Dhanusa parts of Nuwakot
1999) are projected to increase by up to 77% by the 2060s and 93%
by the 2090.
Mean Dhankuta and Lamjung Sankhuwasabha, Doti and northern
parts of Nuwakot
GCMs project a wide range of precipitation changes, especially in
the monsoon: -14 to +40% by the 2030s increasing -52 to 135% by
the 2090s
3

29. 4/23/2010
Extreme weather events such as droughts, storms, Extreme 24 hours rainfall (mm)
floods/inundation, and avalanches are expected to increase
along with river side erosion. distribution
Glacial melt in Himalaya will increase flooding and avalanches
(Dig Tsho GLOF event of 1985). This will be followed by
decreased river flows and water supplies, as the glacier recede.
The receding of the glacier will result changes in regional water
resources and these are projected to have negative impacts on
hydropower generation, irrigation, and drinking water supply,
which exacerbates the already constrained access to water down
streams.
High intensity rainfall will trigger the landslides events on the
hill and mountains regions. (Matatirtha landslide event of 2002)
High intensity rainfall in the hill regions consequently causes
floods in Terai (Flood events of 1993)
Practical Action 2009
Due to decrease in gradient flow of river while entering Terai Factors Related to vulnerability
plain from the steep hill region, Terai will be highly impacted
with rise in river bed level, which consequently causes
inundation and results in destruction of agriculture land. (Koshi Poverty and Economic hardship
Inundation of 2008)
Washing away big area of cultivated land along with the houses
including livestock and inhabitants and damage to settlements Insufficient knowledge on disaster management/Low
and disruption of other infrastructures in particular transport and literacy rates
trade due to flooding is an additional potential impact of climate
change.
Influence on the agriculture, forestry, bio-diversity and outbreak
I fl th i lt f t bi di it d tb k Poor quality physical infrastructure; prevalence of non-
non
of the certain water and vector borne diseases are also the other engineered construction
potential impacts of the climate change.
Temperature rise can accelerate drying of biomasses, which will
increase the incidences of forest fires across the nation. (Last Inadequate forecasting facilities
year forest fire, this year forest fire)
Decrease rainfall, snowfall and increase of temperature will Unplanned settlement; development of settlements and
increase the incidence of drought. public services in hazardous areas and marginal lands
Deforestation/More dependency on natural
resources Acts
Inadequate awareness and concentration of Natural Calamity Relief Act 1982
knowledge only in academic centers Though amended twice (1989, 1992) still mostly focused
on the rescue and relief
Rapid
R id population growth, Population
l ti th P l ti
migration/displacement with the deterioration of Local Self-Governance Act 1999
livelihood opportunities The duties and responsibilities of each of the local bodies
(VDC, DDC and municipalities) are not clearly stated
in disaster management
Land degradation caused by human activities
including build settlements, cultivation of steep
slopes, fuel wood collection
4

30. 4/23/2010
Some Undertaken Local
Coping/Adaptation Option
National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management
(NSDRM) based on HFA principle Conduction of awareness raising
programme
The focus of disaster management in Nepal is changing
Provision of irrigation system to cope with
from reactive (relief and response) to proactive
(preparedness) risk reduction, as can be seen in the changing rainfall
NSDRM Mapping of flood hazards
Afforestation
The Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA) is the national Priority given for the preparedness
agency responsible for coordination of various aspects
of disaster management, including preparedness,
programme
response, recovery and mitigation of disasters. Construction of embankments, check dams
and spurs to limit the negative impacts of
flooding and river site cutting
Rain Water Harvesting and Soil Moisture Suggested Adaptation options
Conservation
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation options with HFA
Improvement of Degraded Land principle
Mitigation of River Bank Cutting Developing and implementing land use/zoning policies
Maintaining up to date hazard and vulnerability maps
Slope Stabilization and Management Training and capacity building for disaster and water resource
Construction of house with higher plinth level management
Working with the community to increase p
g y public awareness and
Initiation of programme like food for work for post develop early warning systems and evacuation plans
disaster phase Afforestation and reforestation programs (for reduction of
flooding/landslide risk)
Initiation of the community fund in some places Proactive and inclusive efforts to prioritize the need of the
poor women
Forecasting and disaster preparedness for GLOF, flooding and
drought events
Livelihood diversification
Identified Adaptation Option
Cross-cutting issues such as Gender and Social inclusion,
Climate Impacts Adaptation options
Human Rights and Protection, need to be considered in the Change
policy level Increase Floods 1. Enhance the capacity of all the water-induced disaster related institutions
in
Coordination between all the stakeholders to lessen the gap intense 2. Strengthen early warning system and forecasting
between the grass-root level public and policy makers rainfall
3. Promotion of reforestation/afforestation programme
Proper training towards the adopting proper agriculture
4. Implementation of structural measures
practices, watershed management, agro-forestry, soil
5. Conservation of Churia/Siwalik regions
conservation, wetland management and fire prevention
techniques, as well as supporting sustainable use of natural 6.
6 Strengthen the capacity and coordination of CBOs NGOs INGOs local
CBOs, NGOs, INGOs,
authorities, professional societies for disaster management networking
resources and biodiversity conservation
Revision and proper implementation of the existing national 7. Hazard/vulnerability mapping and zoning
and international act and policy. 8. Discouraging and restricting settlements in high risks-areas
Implementation of hydro-meteorological information system 9. Establishment and management of emergency supply ware house
Enhancement of indigenous knowledge and technology 10. Making preparations for emergency response, relief and rehabilitation measures
11. Activation of inundation committee
12. Clearing water logging
13. Resettlement of vulnerable community
14. Implementation of the building codes
5

31. 4/23/2010
No rainfall/Increase of temperature Drought 1. Identification of Potential drought prone area
Landslides 1. Hazard mapping and Risk zoning
2. Forecasting
2. Awareness raising
3. Discouraging and restricting people living in high risk areas 3. Livelihood diversification
4. Distribution of drought resistant crops species
4. Resettlement of the vulnerable community
5. Promotion of afforestation /reforestation programme and bioengineering 5. Provision of food aid
technique Forest Fire 1. Awareness raising
2. Conservation/promotion of afforestation reforestation
6. Implementation of structural measures programme
3. Forest fire control
7. Inventory on landslides
Increase of Temperature GLOF/Avalanche 1.
1 GLOF/Avalanche mitigation
8. Implementation and promotion of water harvesting system and conservation
f
ponds 2.Awareness Raising
3. Early warning system and forecasting
9. Improvement of the degraded land
Heat wave 1. Awareness raising
10. Promotion of slope stabilization and proper agriculture practice
2. Reforestation/Afforestation
Outbreak of the 1. Awareness raising Other climatic factors Cold wave 1. Awareness raising
epidemics
2. Provision of the warm clothes
2. Provision of the food/clean drinking water
Hailstorm/ 1. Provision of Insurance
Windstorm and
3. Promotion of Community level waste management Thunderbolt 2. Community based fund
3. Livelihood diversification
4. Provision of emergency health care
4. Weather forecasting
Thank you very much
6

32. DRR and CCA perspectives
“The most widespread risk to settlements
from climate change is flooding and
landslides driven by projected increase in
Climate change and disasters rainfall intensity and in coastal areas, sea
level rise” IPCC, AR 4
Differing expressions
Multiple h
M lti l hazard environment
d i t
Need of integration
Conversing understanding and synergy
Dinanath Bhandari
DPNet 15 April 2010 DPNet 15 April 2010
Climate change and disasters (risk) One word: (two) expressions
Climate Change [will] further worsen weather induced • Mitigation – reduction of effect and impact of a
hazards - disasters (strength of storm, heat stress, erratic hazard<>reduction of source of hazard i.e. GHG
pattern of rainfall, drought etc), will increase number and • Vulnerability - considers initial vulnerability><considers
frequency of small scale hazards and risks 'increased' vulnerability on top of 'usual' disaster context i.e
net impacts of climate change (O'Brien et al, 2004).
Disaster can make climate change impacts more profound • Impacts - long-term effects (generally negative) of disaster
g
to livelihoods and assets...< -> positive and negative
Climate change will act alone and combined with other situation/consequence on ................ due to climate
factors. change.
• Exposure - closeness or nearness to hazard [or] scale of
Will there be new hazard due to climate change
interaction with hazard element [>due to climate change -
completely unknown today? = may be. exposure of a system] - avoiding exposure is
difficult/impossible
Practitioners suffer of 'uncertainty' and broadness lying in the
information on climate change
DPNet 15 April 2010 DPNet 15 April 2010
Multiple hazards with and without CC
Mean Daily Temperature Trend (Rampur)
Annual Precipitation Trend (Rampur)
25.5
3000
25
cipitation (mm)
2500 24.5
perature (oC)
24
2000
23.5
Mean Daily Temp
Annual Prec
1500 23
22.5
1000
22
Annual precipitation has increased by 426 mm in 30 years (1976-2005) [14.2 mm/yr] 21.5
500 Mean daily temperature has increased by 1.30C in 30years (1976-2005) [0.0430C/year]
21
0 20.5
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year Year
Source: Narayani Basin Office, DHM Source: Narayani Basin Office, DHM
DPNet 15 April 2010 DPNet 15 April 2010
1

33. Community complaints (before 30 years and now) Hazards and impacts
Causes Primary Impacts on
• Increase in water shortage for crops Erratic Rainfall
consequences livelihood assets
• Thicker long lasting fog in winter Large Catchments, Flood
land, house,
shed, road...
• Hotter summer, unexpected hot days Improper land use
• More intense rainfall, more frequent floods
Crop, livestock,
Poor access /high Drought forests, water…
demand of water
• Longer g p between two successive rains
g gaps
Food & habitat shortage Mobility, health,
Close to park/ for wildlife security…
open boarder
• Difficult to follow usual crop calendar
Wildlife intrusion in
• New weeds/invasive species, insects and diseases Species the community
[on crops] migration
Invasive weeds, diseases,
new insect pests, plant Conflicts
• Increased wildlife intrusion growth, flowering time
Climate change (temperature, storms, precipitation)
DPNet 15 April 2010 DPNet 15 April 2010
Contextual issues Need for integration
• Single hazard can affect differently
• Managing large watersheds and understanding climate
• Different hazards affect individually
change impacts in them - needs local to regional efforts and collectively
• Identifying climate change its impacts in particular • Different hazards impact at different
locality times of the year
• Segregating the 'CC value' on hazard • Different people (and their assets) are
vulnerable to different disasters
• Development priority (integration of all sectors and differently and uniformly
stakeholders
stakeholders’ interests) - integration generates synergy
• Policy and practice • In above picture what should we
– Negligence to slow onset /creeping hazards recommend to do [CCA or DRR]?
• Prevailing poverty – development activities are – crop resilient to inundation??
prerequisite to DRR and adaptation to climate change; – crop early maturing before flood come??
development will not be sustainable if underlying risk • In below picture what we should
factors are not reduced and community have adaptive recommend to do (DRR or CCA?!)
capacity to 'residual' environment.
DPNet 15 April 2010 DPNet 15 April 2010
DRR & CCA: Conversing understanding Integration for synergy
• Decreasing hazard, reducing exposure [and • Some people [may] prefer separate CCA and development to
sensitivity] account for 'additionality' issue. They are different but have
to go together.
• Hazard as more or less temporary event; • Both CC and DRR have broad scopes; integrating each other
multiple hazard environment is existing. can produce synergy:
• Residual vulnerability (on top of usual hazards) – CC as one of the contributing factors to hazards
– Additional requirements (bridge span, spill ways, landscape
• Building adaptive capacity (to the changed capacity, more specific weather information etc)
p y, p )
environment) as climate change is more or less – Small hazards are 'not neglected' (they claim more assets, some
longer phenomena of them may rise because of CC)
• Impacts of climate change can exacerbate – DRR as one of the objective on CCA
• While one is getting major focus (as main sector of work)
hazards and disasters>=< disaster can make issues of the other need to be mainstreamed
climate change impacts more profound – • In mainstream development, both need mainstreamed
feedback actions
DPNet 15 April 2010 DPNet 15 April 2010
2

34. How? a case for brainstorming Living with 'uncertainty'
• Drinking water source started drying off
• Adopting 'no regret' options
• There is perennial water source at hill slope which seepages
down into debris during stream flow at the intake of irrigation – Minimize underlying risks
channel between November and May. Thus no irrigation. – Natural hazards are physical processes that can be
• There was scarcity of water for domestic use (Nov-May) - directly affected by social processes.
from separate source in the same catchment.
• In 2008, community connected water at hill slope to irrigation
– Healthy ecosystems often provide natural defences;
intake through a pipe - irrigation facility increased or drought degraded decrease community resilience.
stress decreased? (where there was not 'disaster' situation) – Environmental degradation is a hazard in itself.
• In 2009, drinking water at source further decreased (leading (UNEP/ISDR)
to more stressful situation); community connected 'water for
irrigation' to drinking water supply system. – Immediate and long-term actions
– banned grazing and browsing in the 'catchment'; conservation • Development plans incorporate DRR/CCA
measures initiated • Linkage between sectoral plans, local to national
• Is it DRR or CCA?. If CCA, coping or adaptation? plans.
• What happens if the 'drought' worsens?
DPNet 15 April 2010 DPNet 15 April 2010
Thank You
DPNet 15 April 2010
3

35. Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation
and Disaster Risk Reduction
By
Maksha R Maharjan Ph.D.
R. Maharjan, Ph D
Natural Resource and Climate Change Advisor
15 April 2010

36. Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Adaptation
DRR – “A conceptual framework considered to minimize
vulnerabilities and disaster risks through a society, to avoid
g y,
(prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse
impacts or hazards, within the broader context of sustainable
development.”
p
Climate Adaptation – “Adjustment in natural or human systems in
response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects which
effects,
moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.” – IPCC, 2007
Who are the Impact Groups?: Poor and vulnerable people (Women
are especially vulnerable to climate change, in part because of
unequal p
q power relations between men and women.) )

37. Pressure and Release (PAR) model: the progression of vulnerability
(V1 X V2 X V3 = V)
Root Dynamic
y Unsafe
Disaster
Di t Hazards
Cause (V1) Pressures (V2) Conditions (V3)
Physical Env:
Lack of: •Dangerous
•Local Inst. location Earthquake
•Training
T i i •Unprotected
•Skills buildings and Highwinds
Limited • Local infrastructure
Investments Local Economy y
Access to: g
Flooding
•Local M k t
L l Markets •Livelihoods
•Power •Press freedom
•Structure at risk Volcanic
•Ethical std. •Low income Risk =
•Resources in public life eruption
Macro-forces
M f
levels Hazard X
Social relations Vulnerability
Ideologies: •Rapid Pop. •Special groups Landslides
•Political Change at risk
systems
y •Rapid •lack of local R=HXV Drought
g
urbanization
b i ti inst.
•Economic
•Arms Public actions
systems expenditure Source: Wisner, B, et al 2004
Virus and
and inst. pests
•Debt repayment •Lack of disaster At risk; Natural hazards, people’s
vulnerability and disasters
schedules
sched les preparedness
•Deforestation •Prevalence of Fire
•Decline in soil endemic
productivity diseases

38. Internationally Accepted list of Hazards
(Source: CRED Crunch, 2008)
1. g
Biological
• Epidemic: Viral Infectious Diseases, Bacterial Infectious Diseases,
Parasitic Infectious Diseases, Fungal Infectious Diseases
• Insect Infection: Grasshopper, Locust
2. Geophysical
• Earthquake: Earthquake, Tsunami
• Volcano Eruption
p
• Mass Movement Dry: Rock fall, Landslide, Avalanche
3. Climatological
• Extreme temperature: Hot wave, cold wave, Extreme winter condition
p , ,
• Drought
• Wildfire: Forest Fire, Bush fire, Grassland fire, Urban fire
4. Hydrological
• Flood: General flood, Flash flood, Strom surge/coastal flood
• Mass Movement Wet: Rockfall, Landslide, Avalanche, Subsidence
5.
5 Meteorological
• Strom: tropical cyclone, Ex-tropical cyclone, Local storm

39. Classes of Adaptation
• M bilit - most common responses to climate change
Mobility t t li t h
• Storage pools - reduces risks across time
• Diversificaton pools - – it can occur in relation to
productive or nonproductive assets, consumption
strategies, and employment opportunities
g , p y pp
• Communal pooling – mobilization and use of
resources that are held collectively during times of
scarcity
it
• Market Exchange – weather-related insurance
schemes designed for agricultural or pastoralist
population

40. Guiding Questions to Mainstream Climate Change
Adaptation into DRR
• Wh mainstreaming?
Why i t i ?
• What are the most important climate-related or non-climate
related hazards the country face?
• Are there particular parts of the country that are vulnerable?
• How are hazards likely to change overtime as a result of
climate change?
• Is the government is monitoring and analyzing disaster risk
information?
• If so, is this information being disseminated? How? To whom?
, g
• Is the government engaged in planning and implementation of
disaster risk management? If so, which government agencies
are actively involved?
y
• Is climate change integrated into planning for disaster risk
management?
• Are functional warning systems in p
g y place at the national level?
• Does the government have capacity to respond to disasters?
• Which other institutions are engaged disaster risk management
at national level?

41. Thank You

42. Needs of Strengthening
Capacity of Government
Institutions
Ngamindra Dahal
Workshop on Mainstreaming Climate Change
Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management
p g
by
DPNET and NDMF
April 15 2010, Kathmandu
A il 15, 2010 K th d

43. Needs of Strengthening Capacity
of Govt I tit ti
f G t Institutions
ADB funded TA is On progress in MOE supporting
to mainstream CC and Env Magmt by:
• Studying and recommending an agreed-upon
structure and funding source for a more developed
MoE
• Integrating climate change curriculum into NASC
training and the training units of thematic ministries.
• Training and awareness raising at district levels on
how to strategically use development funds for CC
adaptation.

44. Importance of general CC
training to understand
The difference between climate change and general
Th diff b t li t h d l
environmental issues
Cultivate cross-cutting thinking, strategies and inter-
ministerial cooperation f addressing i
i i i l i for dd i impacts of f
climate change, i.e. health impacts are related to
agricultural impacts; we must understand the direct
and i di t impacts
d indirect i t
Role of central and local government in helping
communities adapt to climate change
Role and potential of development funds and their
strategic use in helping communities adapt to climate
change impacts, which will protect their livelihoods,
g p p
social infrastructure, and health.

45. Importance of Training government
officials on CB VA
ffi i l
Specific and unique CC challenges in each districts.
Local
L l governments, i d i their l l vulnerability
in doing h i local l bili
assessments, should be able to report:
◦ Historical summary of local disasters—the year,
y y ,
number of dead/injured/missing, cost of damages
◦ Prevailing disaster management approach—is there
one,
one is there dedicated staff and funds mandate of
funds,
the office specifically for disaster preparedness,
mitigation, response operations and recovery
◦ T d in disaster and profile of vulnerability
Trends d d fl f l bl
communities
◦ Efforts to address issues so far
◦ Good practices nationally and internationally

46. Issues to address
How to address these challenges through
g g
strategic development fund?
How to involve communities in the budget
process to ensure development funds are
being strategically allocated to address the
specific and unique climate change impacts
?
How to monitor effectiveness of
development funds in helping communities
adapt to climate change impacts ?

47. Climate Change
&
Disaster Risk Reduction
Disaster Risk Reduction
A Call from HFA 2005‐2016
A Call from HFA 2005‐
Shyam Jnavaly@actionaid.org
April 15, 2010
April 15 2010

48. Climate Change
Climate Change
“directly or indirectly to human activity
d ect y o d ect y to u a act ty
that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and which is in addition to
natural climate variability observed over
l li i bili b d
comparable time periods”
…. a change in the state of the climate th t
change in the state of the climate that
h i th t t f th li t
can be identified ... by changes in the
mean and / or the variability of its
mean and / or the variability of its
properties, and that persists for an
extended period, typically decades or
longer ….

49. Climate Change Adaptation
Climate Change Adaptation
The adjustment in natural or human systems
in response to actual or expected climatic
stimuli or their effects which moderates harm
effects,
or exploits beneficial opportunities.
The broader concept of adaptation also applies to non‐
climatic factors such as soil erosion or surface subsidence.
Adaptation can occur in autonomous fashion, for example
Ad t ti i t f hi f l
through market changes, or as a result of intentional
adaptation policies and plans. Many disaster risk reduction
measures can directly contribute to better adaptation

50. Disaster Risk Reduction
Disaster Risk Reduction
“action taken to reduce the risk of
action taken to reduce the risk of
disasters and the adverse impacts of
natural hazards, through systematic
natural hazards through systematic
efforts to analyze and manage the causes
of disasters, including through avoidance
of disasters incl ding thro gh a oidance
of hazards
hazards, reduced social and economic
vulnerability to hazards, and improved
l bili h d di d
preparedness for adverse events”.

51. Disaster Risk Reduction
Disaster Risk Reduction
The concept and practice of reducing disaster risks
through systematic efforts to analyze and manage
the causal factors of disasters, including through
reduced exposure to hazards, lessened vulnerability
of people and property, wise management of land
and th environment, and i
d the i t d improved preparedness
d d
for adverse events.
The substantial reduction of disaster losses, in lives and the social,
The substantial reduction of disaster losses in lives and the social
economic and environmental assets of communities and countries.
“disaster reduction” is sometimes used, the term “disaster risk
reduction provides a better recognition of the ongoing nature of
reduction” provides a better recognition of the ongoing nature of
disaster risks and the ongoing potential to reduce these risks

52. Climate change and disaster risk reduction
Climate change and disaster risk reduction
Climate change and disaster risk reduction
are closely linked.
More extreme weather events in future are
More extreme weather events in future are
likely to increase the number and scale of
likely to increase the number and scale of
disasters, while at the same time,
disasters, while at the same time,
the existing methods and tools of disaster
the existing methods and tools of disaster
risk reduction provide powerful capacities
f
for adaptation to climate change.
d t ti t li t h

53. HFA
The Hyogo Framework for Action
provides the foundation for the
implementation of disaster risk
reduction. Agreed at the World
Conference on Disaster Reduction in
January 2005 i K b J
J 2005, in Kobe, Japan, with
ith
the support of 168 Governments.

54. Adaptation through disaster risk reduction and
the role of the Hyogo Framework
th l f th H F k
• “the substantial reduction of losses, in lives
the substantial reduction of losses, in lives
and in the social, economic and environmental
assets of communities and countries”.
• “promote the integration of risk reduction
promote the integration of risk reduction
associated with existing climate variability and
future climate change into strategies for the
reduction of disaster risk and adaptation to
climate change...”

55. 1: Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national
and local priority with a strong institutional basis for
and local priority with a strong institutional basis for
implementation.
This need is critical to both adaptation and risk reduction:
encouraging a core ministry with a broad mandate including
finance, economics or planning, to be responsible for
mainstreaming climate change adaptation policies and activities;
organizing a national hi h l l policy di l
ii ti l high‐level li dialogue t prepare a
to
national adaptation strategy that links with disaster risk reduction
strategies;
formalizing collaboration and th coordination of climate‐related
f li i ll b ti d the di ti f li t l t d
risk reduction activities through a multi‐sector mechanism such as a
national platform for disaster risk reduction; and
developing mechanisms to actively engage women communities
women,
and local governments in the assessment of vulnerability and
impacts and the formulation of local adaptation activities

56. 2: Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and
enhance early warning.
h l i
Important steps under this priority include:
Developing and disseminating high quality information about
climate hazards and their likely future changes;
Conducting assessments of vulnerability and specially vulnerable
Conducting assessments of vulnerability and specially vulnerable
groups;
Preparing briefings for policymakers and sector leaders;
Reviewing the effectiveness of early warning systems;
implementing procedures to ensure warnings reach vulnerable
g p;
groups; and
Undertaking public information programmes to help people
understand the risks they face and how to respond to warnings.

57. 3: Use knowledge, innovation and education to build
a culture of safety and resilience at all levels.
lt f f t d ili t ll l l
This principle applies equally to adaptation and disaster risk
reduction. Specific steps should include
d ti S ifi t h ld i l d
Collating and disseminating good practices;
Undertaking public information programmes on local and personal
actions that contribute to safety and resilience;
actions that contribute to safety and resilience;
Publicizing community successes;
Training the media on climate related issues;
Developing education curricula on climate adaptation and risk
D l i d ti i l li t d t ti d ik
reduction;
Supporting research programmes on resilience; and
Improving mechanisms for knowledge transfer from science to
Improving mechanisms for knowledge transfer from science to
application for risk management in climate‐sensitive sectors.

58. 4: Reduce the underlying risk factors
y g f
• This covers the many environmental and societal factors that create or
exacerbate the risks from natural hazards. Measures can include:
exacerbate the risks from natural hazards Measures can include
• Incorporating climate risk‐related considerations in development
planning processes and macro‐economic projections;
• q g yp g,
Requiring the use of climate risk‐related information in city planning,
land‐use planning, water management, and environmental and natural
resource management;
• Strengthening and maintaining protective works such as coastal wave
barriers, river levees, flood ways and flood ponds;
barriers river levees flood ways and flood ponds;
• Requiring routine assessment and reporting of climate risks in
infrastructure projects, building designs, and other engineering practices;
• Developing risk transfer mechanisms and social safety nets;
• Supporting programmes for diversification of livelihoods; and
• Instituting adaptation activities in plans for recovery from specific
disasters.

59. 5: Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective
response at all levels.
t ll l l
Resilience building and early warning systems contribute to
Resilience building and early warning systems contribute to
this priority. Other specific actions can include :
Revising preparedness plans and contingency plans to
account for the projected changes in existing hazards and
new hazards not experienced before;
Building evacuation mechanisms and shelter facilities; and
Building evacuation mechanisms and shelter facilities; and
Developing specific preparedness plans for areas where
settlements and livelihoods are under threat of permanent
change.

60. How to integrated DRR & CCA
How to integrated DRR & CCA
1. Map the institutions, policies and mechanisms already in place for
reducing disaster risk and dealing with climate change adaptation.
2. Take stock of the available information on hazards, exposure,
vulnerabilities and risk assessments.
3. Convene multi‐stakeholder discussions to review information and
identify opportunities to harmonies policy and address capacity gaps
4. Initiate capacity development activities to build or strengthen coherent
p y p g
approaches to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction
5. Design joint project initiatives that address both climate change
adaptation and disaster risk reduction.
p
6. Conduct adaptation planning with a multi‐sectoral, development‐based
approach and centralized oversight responsibility

61. Key Messages 1
Key Messages 1
Measures to reduce vulnerability and disaster
Measures to reduce vulnerability and disaster
risk are proven and are already being applied
to adaptation:
to adaptation:
Tools, capacities and supporting mechanisms
for disaster risk reduction have been tested
for disaster risk reduction have been tested
around the world and are available for wider
use in climate change adaptation.
use in climate change adaptation

62. Key Messages 2
Key Messages 2
Disaster risk reduction offers a triple win:
Disaster risk reduction offers a triple win:
Implementing disaster risk reduction policies
and programmes can limit the impacts of
and programmes can limit the impacts of
climate‐related hazards,
directly support adaptation to climate change,
directly support adaptation to climate change
and
help alleviate poverty.
h l ll i

63. Key Messages 3
Key Messages 3
Reducing disaster risk requires and provides
Reducing disaster risk requires ‐ and provides
opportunities for ‐ political leadership:
Political commitment at the highest level is
Political commitment at the highest level is
essential to drive action across all sectors and
to build institutional linkages between
to build institutional linkages between
climate change adaptation and disaster risk
reduction fields.
reduction fields

64. Key Messages 4
Key Messages 4
Multi stakeholder participation is a key to
Multi‐stakeholder participation is a key to
durable results: Disasters and climate change
affect all of society, and therefore disaster risk
affect all of society and therefore disaster risk
reduction and adaptation solutions must
involve all sectors and civil society, including
involve all sectors and civil society including
the private sector, and community
engagement.
engagement

65. Thank you
Thank you
for your attention !!
for your attention !!