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2008

       WORLD RETAIL
       BANKING REPORT
Contents




	 5	       Pricing	Index

27	        Organic	Growth	in	Domestic	Markets

53	        Appendix:	Methodology	

58	        About	Us




© 2008 Capgemini. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or copied in any form
or by any means without written permission from Capgemini.
Preface




For the fifth consecutive year, Capgemini, ING, and the European Financial Management & Marketing
Association (EFMA) have cooperated to develop this latest annual examination of the global retail banking
market. As in previous years, it provides overviews and insights into the global retail banking industry’s
dynamics. This year’s edition adds two new countries, Singapore and Denmark, raising the number of countries
to 26 and increasing the banks studied from 180 to 194.

We continue to investigate the worldwide pricing of day-to-day banking products and services, and this year’s
edition continues to highlight the evolution of bank prices for these products and services around the world.
Our website, www.wrbr08.com, provides dashboards that offer more detail on each country’s national banking
industry. A sample dashboard is included later in this publication.

As in earlier editions, our 2008 report adds a spotlight section that focuses on a current retail banking issue.
This year’s spotlight highlights the problems banks face as they search for ways to maximise their retail banks’
growth in a changing market, and how some top performers are making strategic choices that ensure their
retail operations will sustain the bank’s market performance in the years ahead. Based on case studies, in-depth
interviews with banking executives in each market around the world, and quantitative analysis, the spotlight
section concentrates on the operational levers and client value propositions that can help retail banks grow in the
high-income domestic markets in which they operate today.

All of us welcome the opportunity to offer this 2008 edition of the World Retail Banking Report to the financial
services community. We hope it will stimulate debate and provide bankers with information they can use
effectively as they negotiate the difficult strategic terrain of today’s retail banking landscape.




Bertrand	Lavayssière             Patrick	Desmarès                        Felix	Potvliege
Managing	Director	               Secretary	General                       Head	Strategy	&	Business	
Global	Financial	Services        European Financial Management           Development	of	Retail	Banking
Capgemini                        & Marketing Association                 ING Group
2008 World Retail Banking Report
PRICING	INDEx           5




PRICING INDEx
                                                                 Key
                                                                 Findings


ß This	year	the	average	annual	price	of	core	banking	services	across	the	26	studied	countries	
 was	€70	for	the	local	active	user,	with	price	levels	ranging	from	€52	in	Asia-Pacific	to	€79	in	
 North	America.	
ß The	average	price	fell	slightly	(1%)	from	last	year.
ß We	have	confirmed	again	that	as	a	nation’s	economy	matures,	the	proportion	of	its	GDP		
 per	capita	allocated	to	banking	services	declines.
ß From	2006	to	2008,	in	their	struggle	to	compete,	banks	used	price	to	influence	
 customer	behaviour:	
 – Banks	cut	the	price	of	sales	influencers	(e.g.	current	accounts,	cards)	by	0.8%	a	year	to	
   promote	sales.
 – Behaviour	influencers	of	two	kinds—lower	cost	products	(e.g.	online	banking	or	
   withdrawals	at	ATMs),	whose	prices	banks	cut	by	0.2%	a	year	to	encourage	their	use;	
   and	higher	cost	products	(e.g.	cheques	or	withdrawals	at	desk),	whose	prices	banks	
   raised	by	0.9%	a	year	to	discourage	their	use.	
 – Unseen	services	(e.g.	exceptions	handling),	for	which	prices	remained	unchanged.
ß North	America’s	price	rose	the	most—averaging	5.7%—resulting	primarily	from	higher	
 prices	for	payments	and	cash	utilisation;	its	price	had	declined	during	the	three	previous	
 years	due	to	fierce	competition	on	account	management	fees.	
ß Asia-Pacific’s	price	fell	by	11.1%	this	year,	essentially	because	of	intensified	competition	in	
 Australia	and	India,	particularly	in	payments	and	account	management.
ß European	prices	remained	stable,	with	only	a	0.8%	price	increase	across	both	the	eurozone	
 and	non-eurozone	countries	studied.	
ß With	the	advent	of	SEPA,	prices	of	pan-European	payments	have	stabilised	in	the	eurozone,	
 and	(excluding	Ireland)	even	decreased	faster	in	Europe	eurozone	than	in	the	rest	of	the	world.
ß Price	discrepancies	between	banks	dropped	significantly	at	both	the	country	and	region	
 levels;	this	was	particularly	striking	in	North	America,	although	pricing	differences	in	the	
 eurozone	remained	the	smallest.
2008 World Retail Banking Report




METHODOLOGY                                                  We collected most of the data for this 2008 edition
For this 2008 edition, we expanded the geographic            of the World Retail Banking Report during the last
scope of the pricing index and spotlight to 26               three months of 2007. We continued to focus on four
countries, adding Denmark and Singapore, and the             categories of banking products and services: account
number of participating banks rose from 180 to 194           management, cash utilisation, exceptions handling,
(see Figure 1.1). Once again, we compared retail             and payments. Figure 1.2 shows the components of
banking in four regions: Europe eurozone, Europe             each category.
non-eurozone, North America, and Asia-Pacific.




Figure 1.1
                                                       New Countries       Countries in           Number
Banks Surveyed                 Region
                                                       in 2008 WRBR        2007 WRBR              of Banks

                                                                           Austria                   6

                                                                           Belgium                   4

                                                                           France                   10

                                                                           Germany                   7

                               Europe	Eurozone                             Ireland                   5

                                                                           Italy                     6

                                                                           Netherlands               6

                                                                           Portugal                  6

                                                                           Spain                    18

                                                                           Croatia                   7

                                                                           Czech	Republic            5

                                                       Denmark                                       4

                                                                           Norway                    6

                                                                           Romania                   9
                               Europe	Non-eurozone
                                                                           Poland                    11

                                                                           Slovakia                  6

                                                                           Sweden                    6

                                                                           Switzerland               6

                                                                           UK                        5

                                                                           Canada                    6
                               North	America
                                                                           US                        9

                                                                           Australia                 5

                                                                           China                     9

                               Asia-Pacific                                India                     9

                                                                           Japan                    20

                                                       Singapore                                     3

                               TOTAL countries/banks                                              26/194
PRICING	INDEx            7




To compare prices from the consumer’s point of                     To compare prices around the world, we also
view, a local expert defined a basket of products and              developed a global profile. It is not governed by local
services reflecting the typical consumer’s banking                 product usage, which obviously varies by country,
behaviour in each country. We call these local                     but by a standard basket of products for all countries.
profiles, which we divided into three frequency-of-                While it is not as precise as the local profile, it is the
use categories: less active, active, and very active users         only practical way we can effectively compare global
(also shown in Figure 1.2). The price index built on               banking prices.
these local profiles measures what consumers in a
particular country, at these frequency-of-use levels,              When comparing prices over more than one year, we
pay annually for their day-to-day banking services.                consistently use prices based on profiles as updated
                                                                   for this latest edition.



Figure 1.2     Scope of Products and Services in the Global and Local Pricing Indexes




                                                                           Core Day-to-Day
             Two Profiles                   Three Usage Patterns                              Nineteen Products  Services
                                                                            Banking Needs




                                                                                              Current	account
                                                                           Account
             Products’	frequencies		                                                          On-line	banking
                                        Less     Represent	20%	of	         Management
             of	use	are	estimated		                                                           Call	centre
                                        Active   users	with	the	lowest	
             for	each	country		
                                        Users    frequencies	of	use
             to	reflect	local	
 Local       consumption	patterns
 Profile
             Measures	cost		
                                                                                              Deposit	at	desk
             of	basic	banking		
                                                                                              Deposit	at	ATM
             needs	for	domestic	
                                                                                              Withdrawal	at	desk
             customers                                                     Cash Utilisation
                                                                                              Withdrawal	at	bank’s	ATM
                                                                                              Withdrawal	at	other	banks’		
                                                                                              ATM	networks
                                        Active   Account	for	60%		
                                        Users    of	the	population


                                                                                              Debit	card	stop	payment
                                                                           Exceptions         Cheque	stop	payment
                                                                           Handling           Document	search
                                                                                              Banker’s	draft
             Identical	frequency		
             of	use	for	all	countries
 Global
 Profile     Allows	the	comparison	
                                                                                              Cheque
             of	price	levels	based		             Represent	20%		
                                        Very                                                  Debit	card
             on	a	single	profile                 of	users	with	the	
                                        Active                                                Credit	card
                                                 highest	frequencies	
                                        Users                                                 Internal	wire	transfer
                                                 of	use                    Payments
                                                                                              External	wire	transfer
                                                                                              Standing	order		
                                                                                              (fixed	amount	transfer)
                                                                                              Direct	debit

Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
8         2008 World Retail Banking Report




NEW COUNTRIES IN OUR 2008 REPORT                        GENERAL PRICING ANALYSES

Denmark                                                 Local Profile
Danish banks have a long-standing tradition of          Local active users pay an average of €70 a year for
partnering, which facilitated a large consolidation     their day-to-day banking needs. As Figure 1.3
move that started in the 1990s and continues. Four      illustrates, price levels varied from one region to
banks now dominate Danish retail banking, and two       another, ranging from a low of €52 in Asia-Pacific to
of them, Danske Bank and Nordea Bank Denmark,           €79 in North America. The average price less active
control over 50% of the market.                         users of bank products and services paid was €35,
                                                        compared to the very active users’ much higher €122
Deploying new technologies, notably for credit          (about 3.5 times more).
transfers, is an established industry strength in
Denmark. Danish banks recently successfully             Again, these are averages, and the situation varies by
developed packages with free standard products          region. In Europe eurozone, for instance, the prices
and services for Internet users, and as a result,       most banks charge the three groups do not vary
Danish Internet prices are among the lowest in          widely—very active users pay only twice as much
Europe eurozone. Its fee structure is similar to        as less active users. In contrast, Asia-Pacific banks
other Nordic countries—heavily dependent on             charge very active users as much as five times the
payments (79%) and, less so, on cash utilisation        price they charge less active users.
(19%), with almost free account management.
                                                        Global Profile
Pricing between Danish banks varies significantly,      To develop a price benchmark of banks regardless of
and cannot be explained by geographic                   their clients’ behaviours, we computed prices based on
fragmentation. This signals a market in which           a single global active user profile, as detailed in the
customers view relationship quality as important,       Methodology section above. Measured on this global
and where packaged offerings make it difficult for      profile price index, Europe non-eurozone (118% of
customers to compare prices.                            the world average) and North America (141%) remain
                                                        the most expensive regions (see Figure 1.4).
Singapore
The Singaporean retail banking market is very
concentrated, with three banks—DBS Group, United
Overseas Bank, and Overseas Chinese Banking
Group—controlling 67% of the market. Transaction
banking is still the prevailing business model, with
fast-growing demand, but the large banks are trying
to develop cross-selling into the burgeoning mass
affluent market. Singaporean banks for many years
have been leaders in using new technologies in retail
banking, such as contactless payments and mobile
banking.

Singapore’s prices are comparable to Australia’s,
but its fee structure is closer to those of China and
Japan, with a very large share of fees derived from
payments (83%) and very limited fees from account
management (5%). The minor differences between
bank prices in Singapore reflect a very competitive,
transaction-oriented market.
PRICING	INDEx   




Figure 1.3     Average Local Profile Price for 2008 (€)



250




200                                                           197
                                                                           Very active user price
                                                                                Active user price
                                                                           Less active user price

150
                                           136
                                                                                                          122

                  101                                                             104
100

                                            74                79
                  75
                                                                                                           70

 50                                                                                52
                  45                                           49
                                                                                                             35
                                            31
                                                                                   22
   0
           Europe Eurozone          Europe Non-eurozone   North America       Asia-Paci c               Average



Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.




Figure 1.     Global Profile Prices for 2008 Active Users (€)



         150
                                                                 140


                                                 117


         100                                                                                            99

                          83



                                                                                  57
          50




           0
                         Europe               Europe       North America      Asia-Paci c             Average
                        Eurozone           Non-eurozone


Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
10        2008 World Retail Banking Report




Price Analysis                                              Based on this product categorisation, we analysed
The average price for active users decreased 1% this        banks’ pricing policies from 2006 to 2008 to
year. Prices followed a similar evolution this year for     understand their actions and underlying objectives
local less active users (-0.1%) and for local very active   (see Figure 1.5). Banks built loyalty and won new
users (-0.9%).                                              clients by reducing prices on sales influencer products,
                                                            which they cut by 0.8% a year. Banks also reached
To assess why banks have changed their prices               for this objective in several markets by creating
for certain products, we have classified banking            packaged offerings.
products into three categories according to their
impact on customers:                                        Many banks reduced their cost of operations by
ß Sales influencers: Products whose prices primarily        influencing clients’ behaviour, using the prices of
  affect a consumer’s decision to buy banking services      behaviour influencer products to move their customers
  or change banks. Current accounts and credit/debit        towards less expensive channels or payment means
  cards fall into this category, because theirs are the     and away from more expensive products and services.
  only prices consumers commit to pay up front              Banks cut the average price of the less-costly
  when they open an account or buy a card.                  behaviour influencer products by 0.2% a year to
                                                            encourage their adoption. At the same time, they
ß Behaviour influencers: Products whose prices
                                                            increased the price of the more costly influencers by
  inf luence a consumer’s behaviour, but fall outside
                                                            0.9% a year to discourage customers from using them.
  the direct buying situation. We have split them
  according to their production cost for banks:
                                                            They might also have enhanced their earnings by
  – Less-costly products for banks: On-line banking,        raising prices on unseen service products, yet most
    deposits and withdrawals at ATMs, direct debits,        banks let these prices stand, at least partly held in
    transfers, and standing orders                          check by consumer associations or regulators.
  – More-costly products for banks: Call centres,
    deposits and withdrawals at desk, withdrawals
    at other banks’ ATM networks, cheques
ß Unseen services: Services for which consumers have
  to pay without having had any choice or decision,
  such as exceptions handling.
PRICING	INDEx       11




                                                                     Figure 1.5
                                          Average	yearly	change		    Product and Service Variations,
Products/Category
                                            from	2006	to	2008
                                                                     200–2008 (%)
Sales influencers                                            -0.8%

Current	account                                    0%

Debit	card                                      -1.3%

Credit	card                                     -1.0%

Behaviour influencers, less costly                           -0.2%

Call	centre                                     -2.3%

On-line	banking                                 -0.6%

Cash	deposit	at	ATM                              0.0%

Withdrawal	at	bank’s	ATM                        -0.5%

Direct	debit                                     0.3%

External	transfer                                1.1%

Internal	transfer                                0.9%

Standing	order                                  -0.3%

Behaviour influencers, more costly                            0.9%

Cash	deposit	at	desk                            -0.4%

Withdrawal	at	desk                               0.2%

Cheque                                           1.9%

Withdrawal	at	other	banks’	ATM	networks          2.0%

Unseen services (exceptions handling)                         0.0%

Banker’s	draft                                   0.4%

Cheque	stop                                      1.2%

Debit	card	stop                                 -1.6%

Document	search                                  0.1%

All products                                                 -0.1%

Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
12                                           2008 World Retail Banking Report




Cost Based on GDP/Capita
Charges for core banking services consumed an
average of 0.55% of GDP per capita across the 26
countries we studied. As illustrated in Figure 1.6,
bank pricing as a proportion of per capita GDP is
higher in less-developed countries. The proportion
of GDP per capita allocated to banking services
declines as an economy matures, at least partly
because consumers in a mature economy begin to
regard these core banking services as a commodity.




Figure 1.                                        Percentage Cost of Banking, by GDP per Capita



                                           4.5%


                                           4.0%
                                                                                                                                Country
Percentage of a country’s GDP per capita




                                           3.5%
   paid for core banking services (%)




                                           3.0%


                                           2.5%


                                           2.0%


                                           1.5%


                                           1.0%


                                           0.5%


                                           0.0%
                                                  0               10,000        20,000        30,000          40,000   50,000             60,000
                                                                                         GDP per capita (€)
Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
PRICING	INDEx          13




REGIONAL PRICING ANALYSES                                       As illustrated in Figure 1.7, overall prices remained
In contrast to other banking activities, such as asset          essentially stable across Europe (up only 0.8%), but
management or investment banking, retail banking                they soared in North America (up 5.7%) and fell
is essentially a local business. National retail banking        precipitously in Asia-Pacific (down 11.1%).
markets for the most part are not affected by other
national markets, although economic integration at              Each region or even country is shaped by its history.
the regional level (European Community, NAFTA) is               We have used the data collected for previous editions
beginning to have an impact. Based on what we have              to put this year’s changes in perspective, as the
learned from past editions, we know that the regional           regional analyses below indicate.
approach will generate the most accurate results.




Figure 1.7     Evolution of Local Profile Prices, 2007–2008 (%)



          8%


          6%                                                   5.7%


          4%


          2%
                         0.8%             0.8%
          0%

                                                                                                     -1.0%
         -2%


         -4%


         -6%


         -8%


        -10%


        -12%                                                                    -11.1%
                        Europe           Europe            North America       Asia-Paci c          Average
                       Eurozone       Non-eurozone

Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
1           2008 World Retail Banking Report




North America                                                       North America registered the biggest price increase.
The structure of North American pricing evolved                     North American prices went up by 5.7% (€4) for
slowly over the years, characterised by free account                local active users over last year. This price increase
management since 2005, which was balanced by the                    was general across the whole continent, and reflects
importance of two other fee categories: payments                    the growing market power large banks have gained
(as much as 79% in the US, and still growing) and                   by growing, mostly through consolidation. North
cash utilisation (48% in Canada, higher than in any                 American banks are currently trying to compensate
other country) (see Figure 1.8).                                    for their past low pricing strategies now that their
                                                                    earnings ratios are threatened by the sub-prime crisis.




Figure 1.8     Sources of Fees for Core Banking Services in North America (%)



100%

 90%

 80%
                                                                                                                49%
 70%            57%                 60%              63%           64%

                                                                                                79%
 60%

 50%                                                                                                             3%

 40%            6%
                                    7%
                                                     7%            7%
 30%

                31%                                                                                             48%
 20%
                                    33%
                                                     29%           29%                          10%
 10%
                                                0%          0%            0%                    10%     1%              0%
                6%
     0%
               2005                 2006             2007          2008                         USA            Canada

                          Edition of World Retail Banking Report                                   Country (2008)


                                                                                                      Payments
                                                                                                      Exceptions Handling
                                                                                                      Cash Utilisation
                                                                                                      Account Management

Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
PRICING	INDEx           15




The main price increases over the year were in                                policy to influence customer behaviour towards
payments and cash utilisation (see Figure 1.9). In                            more cost-efficient means of payment. In the cash
payments, raising external and internal transfer                              utilisation category, withdrawals at other banks’
prices rather than prices for cards or cheques reflects                       ATM networks accounted for most of the increase,
the banks’ competitive intent to keep prices low                              because raising this price was unlikely to impair a
on products that are most important in customers’                             bank’s competitive edge, and consumers might even
minds when choosing their banks, rather than a                                blame a bank’s competitors.




Figure 1.     Product and Service Price Variations vs. Last Year for Local Active Users in North America (€)



                                             3                                                 2.7


                                                                    1.4
                                             1
                                                       0.0                         0.1


                                           -1



                                           -3
                                                    Account       Cash          Exceptions   Payments
                                                   Management   Utilisation      Handling




   2.5

                                                                                                  2.0
   2.0


   1.5
                                                    1.1
                                                                                                                  1.0
   1.0


   0.5
                                    0.2                                             0.2
               0.1
   0.0

                                                                  -0.2
                                                                                                                                    -0.3
  -0.5
            Withdrawals      Withdrawals         Withdrawals     Cheque            Direct       External        Internal       Standing
             at bank's         at desk             at other     (price per         debit      wire transfer   wire transfer   order ( xed
                ATM                              banks' ATM      cheque)                                                        amount
                                                  networks                                                                     transfer)


                          Cash Utilisation                                                    Payments


Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
1           2008 World Retail Banking Report




Asia-Pacific
The Asia-Pacific region has had a more consistent
pricing structure across the four product and service
categories (see Figure 1.10). Its overall structure
results from the combination of two sets of countries:
China, Japan, and Singapore, which follow the
US pattern of free account management and heavy
payments fees, in contrast to Australia and India,
where fees derived from exceptions handling greatly
overshadow those from payments, much like in the
UK. Account management fees, which have fallen
from 22% to 15% since our 2005 report, may be on
a downward trend.




Figure 1.10 Sources of Fees for Core Banking Services in Asia-Pacific (%)



100%
                                                             10%
 90%

 80%        43%           44%          49%      47%                                  44%

 70%
                                                             51%
 60%                                                                    84%                       92%          83%

 50%
            24%           24%
 40%                                   23%      26%

                                                             11%                     43%
 30%
            11%
                          16%          13%      13%                             1%
 20%
                                                             28%                                          0%
                                                                                                               10%   2%
 10%        22%                                                         14%          13%
                          16%          16%      15%                             1%           0%
                                                                                                   8%     0%
                                                                                                               5%
     0%
            2005          2006         2007     2008        Australia   China        India        Japan    Singapore

             Edition of World Retail Banking Report                             Country (2008)


                                                                                     Payments
                                                                                     Exceptions Handling
                                                                                     Cash Utilisation
                                                                                     Account Management

Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
PRICING	INDEx                                   17




Asia-Pacific’s price declined the most. The local active                                                                                                                           First, the decrease in account management prices can
user price in Asia-Pacific fell by 11.1% (€5.5). This                                                                                                                              be traced to the Australian national market, where
decrease resulted mainly from price cuts in payments                                                                                                                               two large banks launched flat-fee accounts in a fierce
(reversing a previous trend) and account management                                                                                                                                competitive bid to acquire new clients, drawing
(see Figure 1.11). Both these changes reflect specific                                                                                                                             down the average fee charged for the region’s current
national market situations.                                                                                                                                                        account. Second, cuts in payments fees (external
                                                                                                                                                                                   wire transfers and credit cards) occurred primarily in
                                                                                                                                                                                   India, where state-owned banks were attempting to
                                                                                                                                                                                   align their tariffs with those of private banks.



Figure 1.11 Product and Service Price Variations vs. Last Year for Local Active Users in Asia-Pacific (€)



                                                                      3



                                                                      1
                                                                                               -1.6                           -0.5                                                -0.4                                 -3.0


                                                                      -1



                                                                      -3
                                                                                  Account                                     Cash                                      Exceptions                                   Payments
                                                                                 Management                                 Utilisation                                  Handling



 1.5
                                                                                                                                                                                         0.9
 1.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0.7
                                                   0.4                                                0.5                      0.5
 0.5

 0.0
                                                                                                                                                         -0.2                                                                        -0.3
-0.5

-1.0                          -0.9
                                                                              -1.1                                                                                                                                     -1.2                                                   -1.1
-1.5
          -1.6
-2.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                -2.0
-2.5
                                               Withdrawals at other
                                              banks' ATM networks




                                                                                                                                                                                         Cheque (price per cheque)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Standing order ( xed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           amount transfer)
                                                                                                      Cheque stop payment
           Current account


                             Withdrawals at
                                bank's ATM




                                                                              Banker's draft
                                                                           (cashier's check)




                                                                                                                               Debit card stop payment



                                                                                                                                                         Document search (desk)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Credit card



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Direct debit



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     External wire transfer



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Internal wire transfer




       Account
       Manage-                        Cash                                                                    Exceptions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Payments
        ment                        Utilisation                                                                Handling




Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
18           2008 World Retail Banking Report




Europe Eurozone
The Europe eurozone fee structure is not
homogeneous, although a slow price convergence
trend is evident as Germany, Italy, and the
Netherlands progressively reduce their emphasis on
account management fees (see Figure 1.12). Cash
utilisation fees have increased steadily over the past
three years, a clear signal that euro unification has not
significantly reduced the cost of using cash. It is not
surprising that, given SEPA, the cost of using cash
is a major item on the agendas of both the European
Commission and the European Central Bank.



Figure 1.12 Sources of Fees for Core Banking in Europe Eurozone (%)



100%

90%                                                                               25%
                                                                                                                                            34%
80%                                                                                             43%                 45%
          52%                                   49%
                    58%       55%      54%                                        5%
70%                                                       63%                                                                  71%
                                                                                  11%                          1%                                   78%
60%                                                                 82%                                                                     13%
                                                                                                                    5%
50%                                                                                                            0%
           5%                                   9%                                                                  8%
                              6%        6%                                                                                                  24%
40%        6%       5%                          8%
                    5%        8%        9%                6%                                                                           1%
30%                                                       4%                                                                                                   1%
                                                                                  59%           57%
                                                                                                                    42%
20%       37%                                   34%                                                                            22%
                    31%       31%      31%                27%       14%                                                                     29%
10%                                                                                                                                                 19% 2%
                                                                             0%
                                                                    4%                                                         6%
  0%
           2005



                     2006



                               2007



                                         2008




                                                Austria



                                                          Belgium



                                                                    France



                                                                                  Germany



                                                                                                 Netherlands



                                                                                                                    Portugal



                                                                                                                               Spain



                                                                                                                                            Italy



                                                                                                                                                     Ireland




       Edition of World Retail Banking Report                                               Country (2008)

                                                                                                                                       Payments
                                                                                                                                       Exceptions Handling
                                                                                                                                       Cash Utilisation
                                                                                                                                       Account Management


Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
PRICING	INDEx                            1




In Europe eurozone, prices remained relatively stable,    Figure 1.13 Product and Service Price Variations
with only a 0.8% (€0.6) rise. The changes in Europe                   vs. Last Year for the Local Active User
                                                                      in Europe Eurozone (€)
eurozone were much smaller than those outside
Europe. They were mainly related to payments (see
Figure 1.13). Banks raised the price of internal wire       3
transfers at desk to compensate for the development
of Internet origination (generally free), while the
price of external wire transfers decreased under the        1                                                                           0.5
influence of SEPA. Account management prices                                         0.0
                                                                                                                0.2
remained essentially stable, because a price increase                -0.1
in current accounts was offset by a cut in the price of    -1
on-line banking.

                                                           -3
                                                                  Account           Cash                 Exceptions                   Payments
                                                                 Management       Utilisation             Handling




                                                           1.4
                                                           1.2                                                                                1.1
                                                           1.0
                                                           0.8
                                                           0.6
                                                                     0.4
                                                           0.4
                                                           0.2
                                                           0.0
                                                          -0.2                                    -0.1

                                                          -0.4
                                                          -0.6                   -0.5
                                                                                                                        -0.6
                                                          -0.8
                                                                    Current
                                                                   account


                                                                                On-line
                                                                               banking


                                                                                                Cheque (price
                                                                                                 per cheque)


                                                                                                                          External
                                                                                                                      wire transfer


                                                                                                                                               Internal
                                                                                                                                          wire transfer




                                                                       Account
                                                                                                                  Payments
                                                                      Management



                                                          Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
20               2008 World Retail Banking Report




The Single Euro Payment Area (SEPA) will lead to                                                    The price of this basket of products has stopped
lower prices. We have continued last year’s effort to                                               decreasing in Europe eurozone, and stabilised at €48.
track SEPA’s impact on prices. The expected result                                                  The result would be much better except for turmoil
is that a standardised payments structure across the                                                in the Irish market, without which the price would
eurozone will lead to tougher competition and lower                                                 have fallen by 6.3%—from €41 to €38 (see Figure
prices. To check this hypothesis, we created the                                                    1.14). As a comparison, outside Europe eurozone the
“pan-European payments means”, which we defined                                                     price of this same basket of products has dropped
as the basket of products that will progressively be                                                by only €1, from €34 to €33 (a 3% drop). SEPA,
governed by SEPA’s pan-European standards and                                                       therefore, is probably still drawing prices down in
regulations. These include internal and external wire                                               Europe eurozone.
transfers, direct debits, credit and debit cards, and
their underlying current accounts. This year these
products accounted for 64% of the fees paid by local
active users in Europe eurozone.




Figure 1.1 Price of Pan-European Payment Means for the Local Active Profile, 2008 (€)



140
         130.0

120


100

                               Average Eurozone
 80                            €48, similar to 2007
                                                                         73.7
                 63.7                                                                                                    Average Rest of the World
 60                     56.7                                                    57.1 56.8                                   €33 vs. €34 in 2007
                               50.8                                                         50.8

                                                                                                   39.3
 40                                   37.3
                                             33.0                                                         33.4 32.4 32.0 31.9
                                                    30.6
                                                                                                                                26.2 26.2 24.3
                                                           19.3                                                                                  18.1 16.5
 20                                                               14.8
                                                                                                                                                             12.2
                                                                                                                                                                    8.1
                                                                                                                                                                          3.5
     0
          A       B      C      D      E      F      G      H      I      J      K    L      M      N      O    P    Q     R     S    T    U      V    W      X     Y      Z
                             Europe Eurozone                                                                     Rest of the World


Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
PRICING	INDEx                           21




                                                                                Europe Non-eurozone
                                                                                The fee structure in Europe non-eurozone falls
                                                                                between North American and Europe eurozone
                                                                                patterns (see Figure 1.15). This results mainly from
                                                                                the combination of Nordic countries, which feature
                                                                                US-style fees heavily dependent on payments, along
                                                                                with Eastern Europe countries, where banks charge
                                                                                relatively high prices for account management and
                                                                                cash utilisation. The UK, however, does not fit in
                                                                                either of these categories, but instead features an
                                                                                original pattern that relies on exceptions handling.




Figure 1.15 Sources of Fees for Core Banking Services in Europe Non-eurozone (%)



100%
                                                                                                                                   12% 1%
 90%
                                                             33%                                                    32%
 80%                                                                                                  44%                                                                        43%
                   56%       55%    55%            58%                                                                        1%
 70%      59%
                                                              4%                                                                   41%
                                                                              75%       79%                                                                   75%
 60%                                                                                                           2%
                                                                                                                    27%
 50%                                                                                                                                           99%
                                              1%             32%
                                                                                                      21%
 40%                9%       9%     9%
           9%
                                                   15%
                                                                                                                                                                                 52%
 30%               12%                                                                                                                                                      2%
                             16%    16%                                                          1%
          14%
                                                                                                                                   46%
 20%                                                                          11%                                   40%
                                                             32%                                      32%                                                                   1%
                                                   26%                        4%        19%                                                                                            0%
 10%               23%
          18%                19%    20%
                                                                                                 2%                                           1%            0%22%
                                                                              10%                                                                           0%
                                                                                                                                                                                 5%
  0%
                                                             Czech Republic
           2005


                    2006


                             2007


                                    2008




                                                   Croatia




                                                                                                                                                              Switzerland
                                                                              Denmark




                                                                                                                    Romania


                                                                                                                                   Slovakia


                                                                                                                                                   Sweden
                                                                                        Norway


                                                                                                      Poland




                                                                                                                                                                                 UK




     Edition of World Retail Banking Report                                                       Country (2008)


                                                                                                                                                   Payments
                                                                                                                                                   Exceptions Handling
                                                                                                                                                   Cash Utilisation
                                                                                                                                                   Account Management

Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
22           2008 World Retail Banking Report




In Europe non-eurozone, prices increased by 0.8%
(€0.6) for local active users. In payments, banks
increased credit card fees, but this was offset by
cuts in the prices of external and internal wire
transfers (see Figure 1.16). While call centre
fees decreased, prices of the two other account
management products—credit account and on-line
banking—were raised across Europe non-eurozone.




Figure 1.1 Product and Service Price Variations vs. Last Year for Local Active Users in Europe Non-eurozone (€)



                                     3



                                     1          0.5                                            0.4

                                                            -0.2             -0.1
                                     -1



                                     -3
                                           Account          Cash          Exceptions         Payments
                                          Management      Utilisation      Handling




 1.0
                                                                                       0.8
 0.8

 0.6
                               0.4                0.4
 0.4

 0.2

 0.0

-0.2
                                                                   -0.2                                   -0.2           -0.2
-0.4         -0.3

-0.6
             Call            Current            On-line      Withdrawals        Credit card            External        Internal
            centre           account            banking        at desk                               wire transfer   wire transfer

                                                                 Cash
                     Account Management                                                                 Payments
                                                               Utilisation


Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
PRICING	INDEx                                    23




PRICE DISCREPANCY IS DECREASING                                                                                                                   Retail banking is still mainly a national business,
An important feature of banking markets lies in                                                                                                   and we examined price discrepancy first at the
the differences between national banks’ prices.                                                                                                   country level (see Figure 1.17). Large discrepancies
Prices are closer together in more mature markets,                                                                                                are usually associated with fast-changing markets,
because consumers consider banking services to be                                                                                                 such as Spain and Ireland in Europe eurozone;
commodities, and tough competition prevails on                                                                                                    Denmark, Romania, and Slovakia in Europe non-
standardised products.                                                                                                                            eurozone; or China and India in Asia-Pacific. For
                                                                                                                                                  the countries we studied both last year and this year,
                                                                                                                                                  the average national price discrepancy decreased
                                                                                                                                                  from 27% to 25%.




Figure 1.17 National Price Discrepancy for Local Active Users (%)



160%                                                                                                                          154%

140%


120%

100%


 80%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  68%
 60%
                                                        51%                                50%
                                                                                                                                                            46% 47%
 40%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      37%
                                                                                                                                         27%                                                                  27%
                                                                                                                                                  23%                            23% 23%                                                                  21%
 20%                                  17% 18%                                   17%                          20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                        16%
                   12%                                            12%                              12%                                                                                                                       12%                                  10%
          9%                 7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    4%
   0%
                                      Germany

                                                Italy



                                                                  Netherlands

                                                                                Portugal



                                                                                                   Croatia

                                                                                                             Czech Republic
                                                        Ireland




                                                                                           Spain
         Austria

                   Belgium

                             France




                                                                                                                                                                                          Switzerland




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Singapore
                                                                                                                               Denmark




                                                                                                                                                            Romania




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Australia
                                                                                                                                                                      Slovakia

                                                                                                                                                                                 Sweden




                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Canada
                                                                                                                                         Norway

                                                                                                                                                   Poland




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Japan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          China

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  India
                                                                                                                                                                                                              USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                         UK




                                                                                                                                                                                                               North
                                  Europe Eurozone                                                                                   Europe Non-eurozone                                                                                   Asia-Pacific
                                                                                                                                                                                                              America


Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
2           2008 World Retail Banking Report




At the regional level, the general trend was also                         The evolution in Asia-Pacific has been very different.
towards reducing discrepancies, although quicker                          It reflects Australian prices (the highest of the region)
than within national boundaries (see Figure 1.18).                        moving downward, and Japanese prices (the lowest)
It was especially fast in North America, where price                      going up. In the European regions, the trend towards
differentials were cut almost in half in two years.                       reduced price discrepancy has slowed in Europe
This result is consistent with our earlier interpretation                 non-eurozone, and even stopped in Europe eurozone,
of price increases led by fast-growing retail banks.                      despite SEPA’s intended harmonising effect.
                                                                          Nonetheless, price discrepancy in Europe eurozone
                                                                          remains the smallest today.




Figure 1.18 Regional Price Discrepancy for the Local Active User, 2005–2008 (%)



100%

  90%                                                                                               86.6%
                                                                                            83.5%           84.2%

  80%
                                                                                                                75.5%

  70%


  60%                                                                     59.0%
                                                                  57.1%


  50%
                                         46.2%
                                                 44.7%
                                                                              41.7%
           39.1%                                     39.5%
  40%                                                     37.6%
                   34.1%                                                           33.8%
                        30.4%32.0%                                                                                      World Retail
  30%
                                                                                                                        Banking Report
                                                                                                                        Edition:
  20%
                                                                                                                         2005
                                                                                                                         2006
  10%                                                                                                                    2007
                                                                                                                         2008
     0%
              Europe Eurozone            Europe Non-eurozone         North America               Asia-Paci c


Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
PRICING	INDEx        25




Conclusion




On a global scale, the price for core banking services, based on the local active user profile, declined by 1% from
last year, averaging €70 in our 2008 study.

Our results indicate that price evolution at the product level can effectively be categorised according to the way
customers perceive them. Prices of sales influencers (current accounts, cards) decreased fastest (0.8% per year),
reflecting the banks’ desire to remain as competitive as possible with the product prices customers can see clearly
and rely on to make their “buy” and “leave-or-stay” decisions.

The behaviour influencers (channels and payment means), which banks can use to attract customers towards or
repel customers from certain products or services, were clearly being used for that purpose based on the pricing
data. Banks cut the prices of those they found to be less costly by 0.2% per year, and raised prices on the more
costly ones by 0.9% per year.

Prices for unseen services (such as exceptions handling), which customers incur without choice or intent, remained
flat. Although they have often been used in the past as an easy way to raise revenue without impairing sales, not
using them now probably reflects a reluctance to further provoke concerned regulators and consumer associations.

A geographic analysis revealed radical and persistent discrepancies in banking fee structures. Important price
variations between countries and world regions are hidden behind a quasi-stability at the global level. This is
particularly true for Asia-Pacific and North America, the first of which experienced an 11.1% price decrease,
while the second saw a 5.7% price increase. European prices, meanwhile, remained stable.

Although retail banking is still essentially a local business, there are a few signs of internationalisation and an
increase in competition at the regional level. Under the influence of SEPA, prices of pan-European payment
means decreased faster in Europe eurozone than in the rest of the world (excluding Ireland). Price discrepancies
between banks decreased significantly this year, at both the country and regional levels. This trend was
especially fast in North America, but the price discrepancy in Europe eurozone is still the smallest.
2   2008 World Retail Banking Report
ORGANIC	GROWTH	IN	DOMESTIC	MARKETS      27




ORGANIC GROWTh IN
 DOMESTIC MARKETS                                                                  Key
                                                                                   Findings
ß The	world	retail	banking	market,	based	on	net	income,	was	€1,280	billion	in	2006,	and	forecasts	indicate	
 it	will	rise	to	€1,900	billion	by	2017,	with	half	of	the	new	income	coming	from	high-growth	markets.
ß Although	the	high-income	portion	of	the	world	retail	banking	market	will	drop	from	75%	in	2006	to	65%	
 in	2017,	it	will	remain	very	important	to	banks.
ß Over	the	past	five	years,	most	of	the	world’s	leading	banks	have	grown	their	domestic	retail	banking	
 revenues	faster	than	their	costs,	significantly	improving	their	cost/income	ratios.
ß Four	pillars	have	supported	leading	banks’	efforts	to	achieve	profitable	organic	growth	in	their	domestic	
 markets:	combining	fast	time	to	market,	innovation,	and	local	client	intimacy;	full	multi-channel	
 integration	and	optimisation;	increasing	sales	productivity	through	dynamic	branch	management;	and	
 leveraging	a	multi-brand	portfolio	to	create	attractive	value	propositions	for	each	market	segment.
ß A	large	proportion	of	the	52	top	banks’	executives	in	15	countries	told	us	they	have	used	these	four	
 pillars,	and	expressed	their	continuing	confidence	in	them.
ß Most	assumptions	on	which	past	retail	banking	growth	strategies	were	based	are	challenged	by	
 today’s	structural	changes	in	the	market,	including	tougher	regulations,	more	flexible	technology,	more	
 demanding	clients,	and	new	competitors.
ß Recognising	that	structural	changes	will	increase	competition	and	draw	prices	down,	we	simulated	this	
 effect	in	eight	western	European	countries;	the	simulations	indicated	that	banks	would	lose	36%	of	their	
 projected	net	income	(and	lose	more	than	50%	in	certain	markets).
ß Banks	that	have	already	built	strong	client	relationships,	and	captured	from	their	clients	a	good	share	of	
 wallet,	need	to	renew	their	distribution	strategies	and	develop	business	organically	in	today’s	saturated	
 and	slowly	growing	domestic	markets.
ß Successful	banks	can	use	three	distribution	strategies	to	grow	beyond	the	traditional	retail	banking	
 business	model	in	high-income	markets:	“Better	sell”,	to	better	fit	diverse	clients’	needs;	“Larger	offer”,	
 extending	the	offering	to	non-financial	products	and	services;	and	“Indirect	business”,	selling	through	
 other	distributors.
ß The	52	interviewed	bankers	selected	three	models	as	the	most	likely	to	happen:	Trust	Operator,	
 Discount	Bank,	and	General	Broker.	Many	banks	even	admit	to	having	their	own	projects	using	the	first	
 two	models.
ß Banker	interviewees	identified	Discount	Bank,	General	Broker,	and	Open	Source	Bank	as	potentially	
 the	most	disruptive	models	in	the	retail	banking	business,	because	these	models	could	cause	their	two	
 worst	fears	to	come	true—a	price	war	and	competition	for	client	relationships.
ß The	best	performers	will	combine	several	of	these	distribution	models—and	perhaps	still	others—to	
 succeed	in	the	future	retail	banking	market.
28           2008 World Retail Banking Report




Retail banking is a major activity for most large                              THE IMPORTANCE OF
banks, helping them grow profitably and maintaining                            DOMESTIC RETAIL OPERATIONS
their stock value. Succeeding in the past has never                            The global retail banking market is huge, with 2006
been easy, but severe challenges lie ahead. Our teams                          net income of €1,280 billion, and it is expected to
in the 15 countries we studied for this year’s spotlight                       reach €1,900 billion by 2017 (see Figure 2.1). The
have interviewed 52 banking executives to understand                           potential increase of €620 billion will be generated in
how they intend to succeed in the future. Using these                          nearly equal amounts in high-income and other high-
observations, combined with the views of Capgemini                             growth markets. Despite a slower growth rate, we
experts in the field, this year’s spotlight outlines some                      expect retail banking to remain a major force in high-
of the best paths banks can take to remain major                               income economies over the next ten years, falling only
retail marketplace players in the years ahead.                                 slightly from its current 75% of global net revenues to
                                                                               65% in 2017.



Figure 2.1      Retail Banking Revenues in 200 and 2017F (€bn)




                                                   Y2006: €1,280 billion                        Y2017F: €1,900 billion



       580
                                                                     33%                                         31%

                                        2%
                                                   10%
                    460                                        28%                       1%                   25%
                                                                                                    8%
 433
                                                   High-income Markets                           High-income Markets
                                                      €900bn = 75%a                                €1,200bn = 65%a
              350


                                                                                                             Revenue 2006 (€bn)
                                                                                                             Forecast Revenue
                                                                                                             2017 (€bn)



                                160
                                                         145          145
                          125
                                                                                   110
                                                    95           85                                         90
                                                                                               63                       65
                                                                                                                   50
                                             40                               35                       35
                                        30                                                25


  North       Western       Japan      Australia    Rest of      Rest of      China        India      Rest of   ME and
 America      Europe                                America      Europe                             Asia-Paci c Africa



Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008; World Bank statistics; UNDP.
Notes: Revenue = net interest income + net fees and commission income + other income; 2017 forecast calculated based on each country’s GDP
         growth forecast; fees and interest rates based on Capgemini price index research; ME is Middle East; Rest of America is all America excluding
         the US and Canada.
a
  high-income markets definition by United Nations human Development Research; here they are North America, Western Europe, Japan, and Australia.
ORGANIC	GROWTH	IN	DOMESTIC	MARKETS                   2




The top worldwide banks’ retail banking operations                         Because a few large banks hold dominant positions in
are primarily located in high-income markets, and                          high-income markets, regulators now tend to discourage
these banks have but little potential for further                          further mergers and acquisitions. They want to ensure
external expansion. Moreover, except for six banks—                        fair competition and avoid excessive concentrations of
BNP Paribas, ABN AMRO, BBVA, Santander,                                    risk. Domestic growth through acquisition, therefore, is
HSBC, and Citigroup—the proportion of domestic                             no longer a viable option in most high-income markets.
net revenues for most banks is greater than 50% (see                       Alternatives are also limited, and in any case promise
Figure 2.2). Their market development has up to now                        only moderate returns.
been achieved mainly in their domestic markets.
                                                                           A bank’s organic growth in its domestic market is,
                                                                           therefore, likely to hold the key to a bank’s success
                                                                           over the next ten years. This year’s spotlight is trained
                                                                           on that issue, and investigates the challenges banks
                                                                           face as they attempt to grow organically in saturated
                                                                           markets during a period of sluggish economic growth.




Figure 2.2     Domestic as a Percentage of Global Retail Banking Net Revenues, 2002–200




100%




 80%




 60%

 50%

 40%




 20%




  0%
                 Santander
                     HSBC
                ABN AMRO
                      BBVA
              BNP Paribas
                  Citigroup
            Deutsche Bank

          Société Générale
                       KBC
                      Fortis
           UniCredit Banca
                   Barclays
                       RBS
                       ANZ
                 Rabobank
                        ING
                     HBOS
                 Swedbank
            Crédit Agricole
                       NAB
                   Westpac
                       CBA
              Banca Intesa
                  Sanpaolo
                      Dexia
                   La Caixa
            Handelsbanken

        Banques Populaires
          Caisse d'Epargne
         Crédit Mutuel–CIC
            Dresdner Bank
                  Postbank
               Caja Madrid
           Bank of America
                  Wachovia
                Wells Fargo
                     MUFG
                    Mizuho
                     SMBC
                    Resona
                       SEB




                    Nordea




Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008; World Bank statistics; UNDP.
Notes: Revenues = net interest income + net fees and commission income + other income; 2017 forecast calculated based on each country’s GDP growth
        forecast; fees and interest rates based on Capgemini price index research.
30                                     2008 World Retail Banking Report




RETAIL BANKING’S BEST PERFORMERS’                                                                           By plotting the results (see Figure 2.3), we soon
STRATEGIES IN DOMESTIC MARKETS,                                                                             learned that most of the banks we chose appeared
2002–200                                                                                                   in the white part of the chart, above the line where
                                                                                                            income growth is equal to cost growth. We bore in
Benchmark and market analysis                                                                               mind, however, that retail banking is still strongly
World-leading retail banks1 have performed well                                                             influenced by purely national market features, such
globally in their domestic markets, increasing                                                              as local and national laws, banking regulations,
revenues while controlling operating costs, and                                                             customers’ habits and behaviours, culture, and so on.
in this way, reduced their cost/income ratios. 2 To
assess this performance, we isolated the domestic                                                           We focused our in-depth analysis on four banks (red-
retail banking activity of 37 top worldwide banks                                                           circled in Figure 2.3)—Crédit Mutuel–CIC (France),
using annual report data.                                                                                   ING (Netherlands), La Caixa (Spain), and HBOS
                                                                                                            (UK). All are top global domestic retail performers
                                                                                                            and have outperformed their national competitors.



Figure 2.3                               Domestic Retail Banking: Growth of Revenue vs. Cost for Selected Banks, 2002–200 (%)




                                0, 2



                                                                                                                                  Bank of America

                              0, 15
                                                                          La Caixa                                     Wachovia
Revenue Growth CAGR 02–06 a




                                                                                       KBC
                                                                                     Sumitomo
                                                                                        Mitsui             HBOS
                                0, 1
                                                                                                           Banques Populaires
                                                                                                     CBA
                                                                                                               ANZ RBS
                                                                                                            CM–CIC
                                                                                                                           Caja Madrid
                                                                                              ING
                                                                                       ABN                                      Wells Fargo
                                                                      Banca                             BNPP
                                                                                      AMRO BBVA
                                                                      Intesa                       Dexia                 Santander
                              0, 05               Citigroup                                   HVB
                                                                                                    SocGen     Crédit
                                                                Mizuho               Barclays     Nordea                         Caisse d’Epargne
                                                                                                  Sanpaolo    Agricole

                                                                            Fortis                          Rabobank
                                                                                       UniCredit
                                                                                                             LCL
                                  0
                                       Deutsche     Resona            Dresdner Bank                  Westpac
                                         Bank



                              -0, 05
                                  -0, 15              -0, 1               -0, 05                 0                 0, 05           0, 1             0, 15

                                                                      Operating Cost Growth CAGR 02–06 a


Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008, and bank annual reports.
Note: CIR before impairment losses. Circle sizes are proportionate to revenue in 2006.
a
  CAGR calculation using 2007 currencies.



1
                  Retail business is defined as financial products and services (both core and non-core banking) distributed through physical and non-physical networks to
                  private customers and SMEs.
2
                  Cost/income ratio before impairment losses.
ORGANIC	GROWTH	IN	DOMESTIC	MARKETS         31




Four pillars enable profitable growth                                Each of the major banks we selected for study has
While analysing the best performers we selected                      strong business basics, including a reliable capacity to
from the local market leaders, we identified the                     deliver a variety of products and services, combined
four pillars on which they based their profitable                    with relationship management know-how. This
and sustainable growth: (1) combining fast time                      includes trust development and risk assessment, which
to market, innovation, and local client intimacy;                    have always been essential to successful banking.
(2) ensuring full multi-channel integration and
optimisation; (3) increasing sales productivity                      Pillar 1: Combining fast time to market, innovation,
through dynamic branch management; and (4)                           and local client intimacy
leveraging a multi-brand portfolio to create                         Crédit Mutuel–CIC has succeeded in France in being
attractive value propositions for each market                        a first mover and market leader, even when customers
segment (see Figure 2.4). Closely examining the                      perceived financial services as commodities. The
approaches our four top performers took, each                        bank became a market leader by offering innovative
focusing specifically on one of these pillars to                     products ahead of the competition, combined with
greatest advantage, helped us understand the                         a strategy focused on maintaining a close working
importance these strategies hold for banks seeking                   relationship with local clients. This strategy requires
to improve their performance in domestic markets.                    strong centralised systems and a back office that can




Figure 2.     The Four Pillars of Sustainable Development




                                            Pro table Growth


     Crédit Mutuel                    ING                 La Caixa                HBOS plc


    Combining fast              Ensuring full          Increasing sales       Leveraging a
    time to market,             multi-channel          productivity           multi-brand
    innovation, and             integration and        through dynamic        portfolio to
    local client                optimisation           branch                 create attractive
    intimacy                                           management             value propositions
                                                                              for each market
                                                                              segment




Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
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W R B R08 Web

  • 1. 2008 WORLD RETAIL BANKING REPORT
  • 2. Contents 5 Pricing Index 27 Organic Growth in Domestic Markets 53 Appendix: Methodology 58 About Us © 2008 Capgemini. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means without written permission from Capgemini.
  • 3. Preface For the fifth consecutive year, Capgemini, ING, and the European Financial Management & Marketing Association (EFMA) have cooperated to develop this latest annual examination of the global retail banking market. As in previous years, it provides overviews and insights into the global retail banking industry’s dynamics. This year’s edition adds two new countries, Singapore and Denmark, raising the number of countries to 26 and increasing the banks studied from 180 to 194. We continue to investigate the worldwide pricing of day-to-day banking products and services, and this year’s edition continues to highlight the evolution of bank prices for these products and services around the world. Our website, www.wrbr08.com, provides dashboards that offer more detail on each country’s national banking industry. A sample dashboard is included later in this publication. As in earlier editions, our 2008 report adds a spotlight section that focuses on a current retail banking issue. This year’s spotlight highlights the problems banks face as they search for ways to maximise their retail banks’ growth in a changing market, and how some top performers are making strategic choices that ensure their retail operations will sustain the bank’s market performance in the years ahead. Based on case studies, in-depth interviews with banking executives in each market around the world, and quantitative analysis, the spotlight section concentrates on the operational levers and client value propositions that can help retail banks grow in the high-income domestic markets in which they operate today. All of us welcome the opportunity to offer this 2008 edition of the World Retail Banking Report to the financial services community. We hope it will stimulate debate and provide bankers with information they can use effectively as they negotiate the difficult strategic terrain of today’s retail banking landscape. Bertrand Lavayssière Patrick Desmarès Felix Potvliege Managing Director Secretary General Head Strategy & Business Global Financial Services European Financial Management Development of Retail Banking Capgemini & Marketing Association ING Group
  • 4. 2008 World Retail Banking Report
  • 5. PRICING INDEx 5 PRICING INDEx Key Findings ß This year the average annual price of core banking services across the 26 studied countries was €70 for the local active user, with price levels ranging from €52 in Asia-Pacific to €79 in North America. ß The average price fell slightly (1%) from last year. ß We have confirmed again that as a nation’s economy matures, the proportion of its GDP per capita allocated to banking services declines. ß From 2006 to 2008, in their struggle to compete, banks used price to influence customer behaviour: – Banks cut the price of sales influencers (e.g. current accounts, cards) by 0.8% a year to promote sales. – Behaviour influencers of two kinds—lower cost products (e.g. online banking or withdrawals at ATMs), whose prices banks cut by 0.2% a year to encourage their use; and higher cost products (e.g. cheques or withdrawals at desk), whose prices banks raised by 0.9% a year to discourage their use. – Unseen services (e.g. exceptions handling), for which prices remained unchanged. ß North America’s price rose the most—averaging 5.7%—resulting primarily from higher prices for payments and cash utilisation; its price had declined during the three previous years due to fierce competition on account management fees. ß Asia-Pacific’s price fell by 11.1% this year, essentially because of intensified competition in Australia and India, particularly in payments and account management. ß European prices remained stable, with only a 0.8% price increase across both the eurozone and non-eurozone countries studied. ß With the advent of SEPA, prices of pan-European payments have stabilised in the eurozone, and (excluding Ireland) even decreased faster in Europe eurozone than in the rest of the world. ß Price discrepancies between banks dropped significantly at both the country and region levels; this was particularly striking in North America, although pricing differences in the eurozone remained the smallest.
  • 6. 2008 World Retail Banking Report METHODOLOGY We collected most of the data for this 2008 edition For this 2008 edition, we expanded the geographic of the World Retail Banking Report during the last scope of the pricing index and spotlight to 26 three months of 2007. We continued to focus on four countries, adding Denmark and Singapore, and the categories of banking products and services: account number of participating banks rose from 180 to 194 management, cash utilisation, exceptions handling, (see Figure 1.1). Once again, we compared retail and payments. Figure 1.2 shows the components of banking in four regions: Europe eurozone, Europe each category. non-eurozone, North America, and Asia-Pacific. Figure 1.1 New Countries Countries in Number Banks Surveyed Region in 2008 WRBR 2007 WRBR of Banks Austria 6 Belgium 4 France 10 Germany 7 Europe Eurozone Ireland 5 Italy 6 Netherlands 6 Portugal 6 Spain 18 Croatia 7 Czech Republic 5 Denmark 4 Norway 6 Romania 9 Europe Non-eurozone Poland 11 Slovakia 6 Sweden 6 Switzerland 6 UK 5 Canada 6 North America US 9 Australia 5 China 9 Asia-Pacific India 9 Japan 20 Singapore 3 TOTAL countries/banks 26/194
  • 7. PRICING INDEx 7 To compare prices from the consumer’s point of To compare prices around the world, we also view, a local expert defined a basket of products and developed a global profile. It is not governed by local services reflecting the typical consumer’s banking product usage, which obviously varies by country, behaviour in each country. We call these local but by a standard basket of products for all countries. profiles, which we divided into three frequency-of- While it is not as precise as the local profile, it is the use categories: less active, active, and very active users only practical way we can effectively compare global (also shown in Figure 1.2). The price index built on banking prices. these local profiles measures what consumers in a particular country, at these frequency-of-use levels, When comparing prices over more than one year, we pay annually for their day-to-day banking services. consistently use prices based on profiles as updated for this latest edition. Figure 1.2 Scope of Products and Services in the Global and Local Pricing Indexes Core Day-to-Day Two Profiles Three Usage Patterns Nineteen Products Services Banking Needs Current account Account Products’ frequencies On-line banking Less Represent 20% of Management of use are estimated Call centre Active users with the lowest for each country Users frequencies of use to reflect local Local consumption patterns Profile Measures cost Deposit at desk of basic banking Deposit at ATM needs for domestic Withdrawal at desk customers Cash Utilisation Withdrawal at bank’s ATM Withdrawal at other banks’ ATM networks Active Account for 60% Users of the population Debit card stop payment Exceptions Cheque stop payment Handling Document search Banker’s draft Identical frequency of use for all countries Global Profile Allows the comparison Cheque of price levels based Represent 20% Very Debit card on a single profile of users with the Active Credit card highest frequencies Users Internal wire transfer of use Payments External wire transfer Standing order (fixed amount transfer) Direct debit Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 8. 8 2008 World Retail Banking Report NEW COUNTRIES IN OUR 2008 REPORT GENERAL PRICING ANALYSES Denmark Local Profile Danish banks have a long-standing tradition of Local active users pay an average of €70 a year for partnering, which facilitated a large consolidation their day-to-day banking needs. As Figure 1.3 move that started in the 1990s and continues. Four illustrates, price levels varied from one region to banks now dominate Danish retail banking, and two another, ranging from a low of €52 in Asia-Pacific to of them, Danske Bank and Nordea Bank Denmark, €79 in North America. The average price less active control over 50% of the market. users of bank products and services paid was €35, compared to the very active users’ much higher €122 Deploying new technologies, notably for credit (about 3.5 times more). transfers, is an established industry strength in Denmark. Danish banks recently successfully Again, these are averages, and the situation varies by developed packages with free standard products region. In Europe eurozone, for instance, the prices and services for Internet users, and as a result, most banks charge the three groups do not vary Danish Internet prices are among the lowest in widely—very active users pay only twice as much Europe eurozone. Its fee structure is similar to as less active users. In contrast, Asia-Pacific banks other Nordic countries—heavily dependent on charge very active users as much as five times the payments (79%) and, less so, on cash utilisation price they charge less active users. (19%), with almost free account management. Global Profile Pricing between Danish banks varies significantly, To develop a price benchmark of banks regardless of and cannot be explained by geographic their clients’ behaviours, we computed prices based on fragmentation. This signals a market in which a single global active user profile, as detailed in the customers view relationship quality as important, Methodology section above. Measured on this global and where packaged offerings make it difficult for profile price index, Europe non-eurozone (118% of customers to compare prices. the world average) and North America (141%) remain the most expensive regions (see Figure 1.4). Singapore The Singaporean retail banking market is very concentrated, with three banks—DBS Group, United Overseas Bank, and Overseas Chinese Banking Group—controlling 67% of the market. Transaction banking is still the prevailing business model, with fast-growing demand, but the large banks are trying to develop cross-selling into the burgeoning mass affluent market. Singaporean banks for many years have been leaders in using new technologies in retail banking, such as contactless payments and mobile banking. Singapore’s prices are comparable to Australia’s, but its fee structure is closer to those of China and Japan, with a very large share of fees derived from payments (83%) and very limited fees from account management (5%). The minor differences between bank prices in Singapore reflect a very competitive, transaction-oriented market.
  • 9. PRICING INDEx Figure 1.3 Average Local Profile Price for 2008 (€) 250 200 197 Very active user price Active user price Less active user price 150 136 122 101 104 100 74 79 75 70 50 52 45 49 35 31 22 0 Europe Eurozone Europe Non-eurozone North America Asia-Paci c Average Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008. Figure 1. Global Profile Prices for 2008 Active Users (€) 150 140 117 100 99 83 57 50 0 Europe Europe North America Asia-Paci c Average Eurozone Non-eurozone Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 10. 10 2008 World Retail Banking Report Price Analysis Based on this product categorisation, we analysed The average price for active users decreased 1% this banks’ pricing policies from 2006 to 2008 to year. Prices followed a similar evolution this year for understand their actions and underlying objectives local less active users (-0.1%) and for local very active (see Figure 1.5). Banks built loyalty and won new users (-0.9%). clients by reducing prices on sales influencer products, which they cut by 0.8% a year. Banks also reached To assess why banks have changed their prices for this objective in several markets by creating for certain products, we have classified banking packaged offerings. products into three categories according to their impact on customers: Many banks reduced their cost of operations by ß Sales influencers: Products whose prices primarily influencing clients’ behaviour, using the prices of affect a consumer’s decision to buy banking services behaviour influencer products to move their customers or change banks. Current accounts and credit/debit towards less expensive channels or payment means cards fall into this category, because theirs are the and away from more expensive products and services. only prices consumers commit to pay up front Banks cut the average price of the less-costly when they open an account or buy a card. behaviour influencer products by 0.2% a year to encourage their adoption. At the same time, they ß Behaviour influencers: Products whose prices increased the price of the more costly influencers by inf luence a consumer’s behaviour, but fall outside 0.9% a year to discourage customers from using them. the direct buying situation. We have split them according to their production cost for banks: They might also have enhanced their earnings by – Less-costly products for banks: On-line banking, raising prices on unseen service products, yet most deposits and withdrawals at ATMs, direct debits, banks let these prices stand, at least partly held in transfers, and standing orders check by consumer associations or regulators. – More-costly products for banks: Call centres, deposits and withdrawals at desk, withdrawals at other banks’ ATM networks, cheques ß Unseen services: Services for which consumers have to pay without having had any choice or decision, such as exceptions handling.
  • 11. PRICING INDEx 11 Figure 1.5 Average yearly change Product and Service Variations, Products/Category from 2006 to 2008 200–2008 (%) Sales influencers -0.8% Current account 0% Debit card -1.3% Credit card -1.0% Behaviour influencers, less costly -0.2% Call centre -2.3% On-line banking -0.6% Cash deposit at ATM 0.0% Withdrawal at bank’s ATM -0.5% Direct debit 0.3% External transfer 1.1% Internal transfer 0.9% Standing order -0.3% Behaviour influencers, more costly 0.9% Cash deposit at desk -0.4% Withdrawal at desk 0.2% Cheque 1.9% Withdrawal at other banks’ ATM networks 2.0% Unseen services (exceptions handling) 0.0% Banker’s draft 0.4% Cheque stop 1.2% Debit card stop -1.6% Document search 0.1% All products -0.1% Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 12. 12 2008 World Retail Banking Report Cost Based on GDP/Capita Charges for core banking services consumed an average of 0.55% of GDP per capita across the 26 countries we studied. As illustrated in Figure 1.6, bank pricing as a proportion of per capita GDP is higher in less-developed countries. The proportion of GDP per capita allocated to banking services declines as an economy matures, at least partly because consumers in a mature economy begin to regard these core banking services as a commodity. Figure 1. Percentage Cost of Banking, by GDP per Capita 4.5% 4.0% Country Percentage of a country’s GDP per capita 3.5% paid for core banking services (%) 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 GDP per capita (€) Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 13. PRICING INDEx 13 REGIONAL PRICING ANALYSES As illustrated in Figure 1.7, overall prices remained In contrast to other banking activities, such as asset essentially stable across Europe (up only 0.8%), but management or investment banking, retail banking they soared in North America (up 5.7%) and fell is essentially a local business. National retail banking precipitously in Asia-Pacific (down 11.1%). markets for the most part are not affected by other national markets, although economic integration at Each region or even country is shaped by its history. the regional level (European Community, NAFTA) is We have used the data collected for previous editions beginning to have an impact. Based on what we have to put this year’s changes in perspective, as the learned from past editions, we know that the regional regional analyses below indicate. approach will generate the most accurate results. Figure 1.7 Evolution of Local Profile Prices, 2007–2008 (%) 8% 6% 5.7% 4% 2% 0.8% 0.8% 0% -1.0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -11.1% Europe Europe North America Asia-Paci c Average Eurozone Non-eurozone Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 14. 1 2008 World Retail Banking Report North America North America registered the biggest price increase. The structure of North American pricing evolved North American prices went up by 5.7% (€4) for slowly over the years, characterised by free account local active users over last year. This price increase management since 2005, which was balanced by the was general across the whole continent, and reflects importance of two other fee categories: payments the growing market power large banks have gained (as much as 79% in the US, and still growing) and by growing, mostly through consolidation. North cash utilisation (48% in Canada, higher than in any American banks are currently trying to compensate other country) (see Figure 1.8). for their past low pricing strategies now that their earnings ratios are threatened by the sub-prime crisis. Figure 1.8 Sources of Fees for Core Banking Services in North America (%) 100% 90% 80% 49% 70% 57% 60% 63% 64% 79% 60% 50% 3% 40% 6% 7% 7% 7% 30% 31% 48% 20% 33% 29% 29% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% 10% 1% 0% 6% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 USA Canada Edition of World Retail Banking Report Country (2008) Payments Exceptions Handling Cash Utilisation Account Management Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 15. PRICING INDEx 15 The main price increases over the year were in policy to influence customer behaviour towards payments and cash utilisation (see Figure 1.9). In more cost-efficient means of payment. In the cash payments, raising external and internal transfer utilisation category, withdrawals at other banks’ prices rather than prices for cards or cheques reflects ATM networks accounted for most of the increase, the banks’ competitive intent to keep prices low because raising this price was unlikely to impair a on products that are most important in customers’ bank’s competitive edge, and consumers might even minds when choosing their banks, rather than a blame a bank’s competitors. Figure 1. Product and Service Price Variations vs. Last Year for Local Active Users in North America (€) 3 2.7 1.4 1 0.0 0.1 -1 -3 Account Cash Exceptions Payments Management Utilisation Handling 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 Withdrawals Withdrawals Withdrawals Cheque Direct External Internal Standing at bank's at desk at other (price per debit wire transfer wire transfer order ( xed ATM banks' ATM cheque) amount networks transfer) Cash Utilisation Payments Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 16. 1 2008 World Retail Banking Report Asia-Pacific The Asia-Pacific region has had a more consistent pricing structure across the four product and service categories (see Figure 1.10). Its overall structure results from the combination of two sets of countries: China, Japan, and Singapore, which follow the US pattern of free account management and heavy payments fees, in contrast to Australia and India, where fees derived from exceptions handling greatly overshadow those from payments, much like in the UK. Account management fees, which have fallen from 22% to 15% since our 2005 report, may be on a downward trend. Figure 1.10 Sources of Fees for Core Banking Services in Asia-Pacific (%) 100% 10% 90% 80% 43% 44% 49% 47% 44% 70% 51% 60% 84% 92% 83% 50% 24% 24% 40% 23% 26% 11% 43% 30% 11% 16% 13% 13% 1% 20% 28% 0% 10% 2% 10% 22% 14% 13% 16% 16% 15% 1% 0% 8% 0% 5% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 Australia China India Japan Singapore Edition of World Retail Banking Report Country (2008) Payments Exceptions Handling Cash Utilisation Account Management Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 17. PRICING INDEx 17 Asia-Pacific’s price declined the most. The local active First, the decrease in account management prices can user price in Asia-Pacific fell by 11.1% (€5.5). This be traced to the Australian national market, where decrease resulted mainly from price cuts in payments two large banks launched flat-fee accounts in a fierce (reversing a previous trend) and account management competitive bid to acquire new clients, drawing (see Figure 1.11). Both these changes reflect specific down the average fee charged for the region’s current national market situations. account. Second, cuts in payments fees (external wire transfers and credit cards) occurred primarily in India, where state-owned banks were attempting to align their tariffs with those of private banks. Figure 1.11 Product and Service Price Variations vs. Last Year for Local Active Users in Asia-Pacific (€) 3 1 -1.6 -0.5 -0.4 -3.0 -1 -3 Account Cash Exceptions Payments Management Utilisation Handling 1.5 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -1.0 -0.9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -1.5 -1.6 -2.0 -2.0 -2.5 Withdrawals at other banks' ATM networks Cheque (price per cheque) Standing order ( xed amount transfer) Cheque stop payment Current account Withdrawals at bank's ATM Banker's draft (cashier's check) Debit card stop payment Document search (desk) Credit card Direct debit External wire transfer Internal wire transfer Account Manage- Cash Exceptions Payments ment Utilisation Handling Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 18. 18 2008 World Retail Banking Report Europe Eurozone The Europe eurozone fee structure is not homogeneous, although a slow price convergence trend is evident as Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands progressively reduce their emphasis on account management fees (see Figure 1.12). Cash utilisation fees have increased steadily over the past three years, a clear signal that euro unification has not significantly reduced the cost of using cash. It is not surprising that, given SEPA, the cost of using cash is a major item on the agendas of both the European Commission and the European Central Bank. Figure 1.12 Sources of Fees for Core Banking in Europe Eurozone (%) 100% 90% 25% 34% 80% 43% 45% 52% 49% 58% 55% 54% 5% 70% 63% 71% 11% 1% 78% 60% 82% 13% 5% 50% 0% 5% 9% 8% 6% 6% 24% 40% 6% 5% 8% 5% 8% 9% 6% 1% 30% 4% 1% 59% 57% 42% 20% 37% 34% 22% 31% 31% 31% 27% 14% 29% 10% 19% 2% 0% 4% 6% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 Austria Belgium France Germany Netherlands Portugal Spain Italy Ireland Edition of World Retail Banking Report Country (2008) Payments Exceptions Handling Cash Utilisation Account Management Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 19. PRICING INDEx 1 In Europe eurozone, prices remained relatively stable, Figure 1.13 Product and Service Price Variations with only a 0.8% (€0.6) rise. The changes in Europe vs. Last Year for the Local Active User in Europe Eurozone (€) eurozone were much smaller than those outside Europe. They were mainly related to payments (see Figure 1.13). Banks raised the price of internal wire 3 transfers at desk to compensate for the development of Internet origination (generally free), while the price of external wire transfers decreased under the 1 0.5 influence of SEPA. Account management prices 0.0 0.2 remained essentially stable, because a price increase -0.1 in current accounts was offset by a cut in the price of -1 on-line banking. -3 Account Cash Exceptions Payments Management Utilisation Handling 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 Current account On-line banking Cheque (price per cheque) External wire transfer Internal wire transfer Account Payments Management Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 20. 20 2008 World Retail Banking Report The Single Euro Payment Area (SEPA) will lead to The price of this basket of products has stopped lower prices. We have continued last year’s effort to decreasing in Europe eurozone, and stabilised at €48. track SEPA’s impact on prices. The expected result The result would be much better except for turmoil is that a standardised payments structure across the in the Irish market, without which the price would eurozone will lead to tougher competition and lower have fallen by 6.3%—from €41 to €38 (see Figure prices. To check this hypothesis, we created the 1.14). As a comparison, outside Europe eurozone the “pan-European payments means”, which we defined price of this same basket of products has dropped as the basket of products that will progressively be by only €1, from €34 to €33 (a 3% drop). SEPA, governed by SEPA’s pan-European standards and therefore, is probably still drawing prices down in regulations. These include internal and external wire Europe eurozone. transfers, direct debits, credit and debit cards, and their underlying current accounts. This year these products accounted for 64% of the fees paid by local active users in Europe eurozone. Figure 1.1 Price of Pan-European Payment Means for the Local Active Profile, 2008 (€) 140 130.0 120 100 Average Eurozone 80 €48, similar to 2007 73.7 63.7 Average Rest of the World 60 56.7 57.1 56.8 €33 vs. €34 in 2007 50.8 50.8 39.3 40 37.3 33.0 33.4 32.4 32.0 31.9 30.6 26.2 26.2 24.3 19.3 18.1 16.5 20 14.8 12.2 8.1 3.5 0 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z Europe Eurozone Rest of the World Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 21. PRICING INDEx 21 Europe Non-eurozone The fee structure in Europe non-eurozone falls between North American and Europe eurozone patterns (see Figure 1.15). This results mainly from the combination of Nordic countries, which feature US-style fees heavily dependent on payments, along with Eastern Europe countries, where banks charge relatively high prices for account management and cash utilisation. The UK, however, does not fit in either of these categories, but instead features an original pattern that relies on exceptions handling. Figure 1.15 Sources of Fees for Core Banking Services in Europe Non-eurozone (%) 100% 12% 1% 90% 33% 32% 80% 44% 43% 56% 55% 55% 58% 1% 70% 59% 4% 41% 75% 79% 75% 60% 2% 27% 50% 99% 1% 32% 21% 40% 9% 9% 9% 9% 15% 52% 30% 12% 2% 16% 16% 1% 14% 46% 20% 11% 40% 32% 32% 1% 26% 4% 19% 0% 10% 23% 18% 19% 20% 2% 1% 0%22% 10% 0% 5% 0% Czech Republic 2005 2006 2007 2008 Croatia Switzerland Denmark Romania Slovakia Sweden Norway Poland UK Edition of World Retail Banking Report Country (2008) Payments Exceptions Handling Cash Utilisation Account Management Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 22. 22 2008 World Retail Banking Report In Europe non-eurozone, prices increased by 0.8% (€0.6) for local active users. In payments, banks increased credit card fees, but this was offset by cuts in the prices of external and internal wire transfers (see Figure 1.16). While call centre fees decreased, prices of the two other account management products—credit account and on-line banking—were raised across Europe non-eurozone. Figure 1.1 Product and Service Price Variations vs. Last Year for Local Active Users in Europe Non-eurozone (€) 3 1 0.5 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -1 -3 Account Cash Exceptions Payments Management Utilisation Handling 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 Call Current On-line Withdrawals Credit card External Internal centre account banking at desk wire transfer wire transfer Cash Account Management Payments Utilisation Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 23. PRICING INDEx 23 PRICE DISCREPANCY IS DECREASING Retail banking is still mainly a national business, An important feature of banking markets lies in and we examined price discrepancy first at the the differences between national banks’ prices. country level (see Figure 1.17). Large discrepancies Prices are closer together in more mature markets, are usually associated with fast-changing markets, because consumers consider banking services to be such as Spain and Ireland in Europe eurozone; commodities, and tough competition prevails on Denmark, Romania, and Slovakia in Europe non- standardised products. eurozone; or China and India in Asia-Pacific. For the countries we studied both last year and this year, the average national price discrepancy decreased from 27% to 25%. Figure 1.17 National Price Discrepancy for Local Active Users (%) 160% 154% 140% 120% 100% 80% 68% 60% 51% 50% 46% 47% 40% 37% 27% 27% 23% 23% 23% 21% 20% 17% 18% 17% 20% 16% 12% 12% 12% 12% 10% 9% 7% 4% 0% Germany Italy Netherlands Portugal Croatia Czech Republic Ireland Spain Austria Belgium France Switzerland Singapore Denmark Romania Australia Slovakia Sweden Canada Norway Poland Japan China India USA UK North Europe Eurozone Europe Non-eurozone Asia-Pacific America Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 24. 2 2008 World Retail Banking Report At the regional level, the general trend was also The evolution in Asia-Pacific has been very different. towards reducing discrepancies, although quicker It reflects Australian prices (the highest of the region) than within national boundaries (see Figure 1.18). moving downward, and Japanese prices (the lowest) It was especially fast in North America, where price going up. In the European regions, the trend towards differentials were cut almost in half in two years. reduced price discrepancy has slowed in Europe This result is consistent with our earlier interpretation non-eurozone, and even stopped in Europe eurozone, of price increases led by fast-growing retail banks. despite SEPA’s intended harmonising effect. Nonetheless, price discrepancy in Europe eurozone remains the smallest today. Figure 1.18 Regional Price Discrepancy for the Local Active User, 2005–2008 (%) 100% 90% 86.6% 83.5% 84.2% 80% 75.5% 70% 60% 59.0% 57.1% 50% 46.2% 44.7% 41.7% 39.1% 39.5% 40% 37.6% 34.1% 33.8% 30.4%32.0% World Retail 30% Banking Report Edition: 20% 2005 2006 10% 2007 2008 0% Europe Eurozone Europe Non-eurozone North America Asia-Paci c Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.
  • 25. PRICING INDEx 25 Conclusion On a global scale, the price for core banking services, based on the local active user profile, declined by 1% from last year, averaging €70 in our 2008 study. Our results indicate that price evolution at the product level can effectively be categorised according to the way customers perceive them. Prices of sales influencers (current accounts, cards) decreased fastest (0.8% per year), reflecting the banks’ desire to remain as competitive as possible with the product prices customers can see clearly and rely on to make their “buy” and “leave-or-stay” decisions. The behaviour influencers (channels and payment means), which banks can use to attract customers towards or repel customers from certain products or services, were clearly being used for that purpose based on the pricing data. Banks cut the prices of those they found to be less costly by 0.2% per year, and raised prices on the more costly ones by 0.9% per year. Prices for unseen services (such as exceptions handling), which customers incur without choice or intent, remained flat. Although they have often been used in the past as an easy way to raise revenue without impairing sales, not using them now probably reflects a reluctance to further provoke concerned regulators and consumer associations. A geographic analysis revealed radical and persistent discrepancies in banking fee structures. Important price variations between countries and world regions are hidden behind a quasi-stability at the global level. This is particularly true for Asia-Pacific and North America, the first of which experienced an 11.1% price decrease, while the second saw a 5.7% price increase. European prices, meanwhile, remained stable. Although retail banking is still essentially a local business, there are a few signs of internationalisation and an increase in competition at the regional level. Under the influence of SEPA, prices of pan-European payment means decreased faster in Europe eurozone than in the rest of the world (excluding Ireland). Price discrepancies between banks decreased significantly this year, at both the country and regional levels. This trend was especially fast in North America, but the price discrepancy in Europe eurozone is still the smallest.
  • 26. 2 2008 World Retail Banking Report
  • 27. ORGANIC GROWTH IN DOMESTIC MARKETS 27 ORGANIC GROWTh IN DOMESTIC MARKETS Key Findings ß The world retail banking market, based on net income, was €1,280 billion in 2006, and forecasts indicate it will rise to €1,900 billion by 2017, with half of the new income coming from high-growth markets. ß Although the high-income portion of the world retail banking market will drop from 75% in 2006 to 65% in 2017, it will remain very important to banks. ß Over the past five years, most of the world’s leading banks have grown their domestic retail banking revenues faster than their costs, significantly improving their cost/income ratios. ß Four pillars have supported leading banks’ efforts to achieve profitable organic growth in their domestic markets: combining fast time to market, innovation, and local client intimacy; full multi-channel integration and optimisation; increasing sales productivity through dynamic branch management; and leveraging a multi-brand portfolio to create attractive value propositions for each market segment. ß A large proportion of the 52 top banks’ executives in 15 countries told us they have used these four pillars, and expressed their continuing confidence in them. ß Most assumptions on which past retail banking growth strategies were based are challenged by today’s structural changes in the market, including tougher regulations, more flexible technology, more demanding clients, and new competitors. ß Recognising that structural changes will increase competition and draw prices down, we simulated this effect in eight western European countries; the simulations indicated that banks would lose 36% of their projected net income (and lose more than 50% in certain markets). ß Banks that have already built strong client relationships, and captured from their clients a good share of wallet, need to renew their distribution strategies and develop business organically in today’s saturated and slowly growing domestic markets. ß Successful banks can use three distribution strategies to grow beyond the traditional retail banking business model in high-income markets: “Better sell”, to better fit diverse clients’ needs; “Larger offer”, extending the offering to non-financial products and services; and “Indirect business”, selling through other distributors. ß The 52 interviewed bankers selected three models as the most likely to happen: Trust Operator, Discount Bank, and General Broker. Many banks even admit to having their own projects using the first two models. ß Banker interviewees identified Discount Bank, General Broker, and Open Source Bank as potentially the most disruptive models in the retail banking business, because these models could cause their two worst fears to come true—a price war and competition for client relationships. ß The best performers will combine several of these distribution models—and perhaps still others—to succeed in the future retail banking market.
  • 28. 28 2008 World Retail Banking Report Retail banking is a major activity for most large THE IMPORTANCE OF banks, helping them grow profitably and maintaining DOMESTIC RETAIL OPERATIONS their stock value. Succeeding in the past has never The global retail banking market is huge, with 2006 been easy, but severe challenges lie ahead. Our teams net income of €1,280 billion, and it is expected to in the 15 countries we studied for this year’s spotlight reach €1,900 billion by 2017 (see Figure 2.1). The have interviewed 52 banking executives to understand potential increase of €620 billion will be generated in how they intend to succeed in the future. Using these nearly equal amounts in high-income and other high- observations, combined with the views of Capgemini growth markets. Despite a slower growth rate, we experts in the field, this year’s spotlight outlines some expect retail banking to remain a major force in high- of the best paths banks can take to remain major income economies over the next ten years, falling only retail marketplace players in the years ahead. slightly from its current 75% of global net revenues to 65% in 2017. Figure 2.1 Retail Banking Revenues in 200 and 2017F (€bn) Y2006: €1,280 billion Y2017F: €1,900 billion 580 33% 31% 2% 10% 460 28% 1% 25% 8% 433 High-income Markets High-income Markets €900bn = 75%a €1,200bn = 65%a 350 Revenue 2006 (€bn) Forecast Revenue 2017 (€bn) 160 145 145 125 110 95 85 90 63 65 50 40 35 35 30 25 North Western Japan Australia Rest of Rest of China India Rest of ME and America Europe America Europe Asia-Paci c Africa Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008; World Bank statistics; UNDP. Notes: Revenue = net interest income + net fees and commission income + other income; 2017 forecast calculated based on each country’s GDP growth forecast; fees and interest rates based on Capgemini price index research; ME is Middle East; Rest of America is all America excluding the US and Canada. a high-income markets definition by United Nations human Development Research; here they are North America, Western Europe, Japan, and Australia.
  • 29. ORGANIC GROWTH IN DOMESTIC MARKETS 2 The top worldwide banks’ retail banking operations Because a few large banks hold dominant positions in are primarily located in high-income markets, and high-income markets, regulators now tend to discourage these banks have but little potential for further further mergers and acquisitions. They want to ensure external expansion. Moreover, except for six banks— fair competition and avoid excessive concentrations of BNP Paribas, ABN AMRO, BBVA, Santander, risk. Domestic growth through acquisition, therefore, is HSBC, and Citigroup—the proportion of domestic no longer a viable option in most high-income markets. net revenues for most banks is greater than 50% (see Alternatives are also limited, and in any case promise Figure 2.2). Their market development has up to now only moderate returns. been achieved mainly in their domestic markets. A bank’s organic growth in its domestic market is, therefore, likely to hold the key to a bank’s success over the next ten years. This year’s spotlight is trained on that issue, and investigates the challenges banks face as they attempt to grow organically in saturated markets during a period of sluggish economic growth. Figure 2.2 Domestic as a Percentage of Global Retail Banking Net Revenues, 2002–200 100% 80% 60% 50% 40% 20% 0% Santander HSBC ABN AMRO BBVA BNP Paribas Citigroup Deutsche Bank Société Générale KBC Fortis UniCredit Banca Barclays RBS ANZ Rabobank ING HBOS Swedbank Crédit Agricole NAB Westpac CBA Banca Intesa Sanpaolo Dexia La Caixa Handelsbanken Banques Populaires Caisse d'Epargne Crédit Mutuel–CIC Dresdner Bank Postbank Caja Madrid Bank of America Wachovia Wells Fargo MUFG Mizuho SMBC Resona SEB Nordea Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008; World Bank statistics; UNDP. Notes: Revenues = net interest income + net fees and commission income + other income; 2017 forecast calculated based on each country’s GDP growth forecast; fees and interest rates based on Capgemini price index research.
  • 30. 30 2008 World Retail Banking Report RETAIL BANKING’S BEST PERFORMERS’ By plotting the results (see Figure 2.3), we soon STRATEGIES IN DOMESTIC MARKETS, learned that most of the banks we chose appeared 2002–200 in the white part of the chart, above the line where income growth is equal to cost growth. We bore in Benchmark and market analysis mind, however, that retail banking is still strongly World-leading retail banks1 have performed well influenced by purely national market features, such globally in their domestic markets, increasing as local and national laws, banking regulations, revenues while controlling operating costs, and customers’ habits and behaviours, culture, and so on. in this way, reduced their cost/income ratios. 2 To assess this performance, we isolated the domestic We focused our in-depth analysis on four banks (red- retail banking activity of 37 top worldwide banks circled in Figure 2.3)—Crédit Mutuel–CIC (France), using annual report data. ING (Netherlands), La Caixa (Spain), and HBOS (UK). All are top global domestic retail performers and have outperformed their national competitors. Figure 2.3 Domestic Retail Banking: Growth of Revenue vs. Cost for Selected Banks, 2002–200 (%) 0, 2 Bank of America 0, 15 La Caixa Wachovia Revenue Growth CAGR 02–06 a KBC Sumitomo Mitsui HBOS 0, 1 Banques Populaires CBA ANZ RBS CM–CIC Caja Madrid ING ABN Wells Fargo Banca BNPP AMRO BBVA Intesa Dexia Santander 0, 05 Citigroup HVB SocGen Crédit Mizuho Barclays Nordea Caisse d’Epargne Sanpaolo Agricole Fortis Rabobank UniCredit LCL 0 Deutsche Resona Dresdner Bank Westpac Bank -0, 05 -0, 15 -0, 1 -0, 05 0 0, 05 0, 1 0, 15 Operating Cost Growth CAGR 02–06 a Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008, and bank annual reports. Note: CIR before impairment losses. Circle sizes are proportionate to revenue in 2006. a CAGR calculation using 2007 currencies. 1 Retail business is defined as financial products and services (both core and non-core banking) distributed through physical and non-physical networks to private customers and SMEs. 2 Cost/income ratio before impairment losses.
  • 31. ORGANIC GROWTH IN DOMESTIC MARKETS 31 Four pillars enable profitable growth Each of the major banks we selected for study has While analysing the best performers we selected strong business basics, including a reliable capacity to from the local market leaders, we identified the deliver a variety of products and services, combined four pillars on which they based their profitable with relationship management know-how. This and sustainable growth: (1) combining fast time includes trust development and risk assessment, which to market, innovation, and local client intimacy; have always been essential to successful banking. (2) ensuring full multi-channel integration and optimisation; (3) increasing sales productivity Pillar 1: Combining fast time to market, innovation, through dynamic branch management; and (4) and local client intimacy leveraging a multi-brand portfolio to create Crédit Mutuel–CIC has succeeded in France in being attractive value propositions for each market a first mover and market leader, even when customers segment (see Figure 2.4). Closely examining the perceived financial services as commodities. The approaches our four top performers took, each bank became a market leader by offering innovative focusing specifically on one of these pillars to products ahead of the competition, combined with greatest advantage, helped us understand the a strategy focused on maintaining a close working importance these strategies hold for banks seeking relationship with local clients. This strategy requires to improve their performance in domestic markets. strong centralised systems and a back office that can Figure 2. The Four Pillars of Sustainable Development Pro table Growth Crédit Mutuel ING La Caixa HBOS plc Combining fast Ensuring full Increasing sales Leveraging a time to market, multi-channel productivity multi-brand innovation, and integration and through dynamic portfolio to local client optimisation branch create attractive intimacy management value propositions for each market segment Source: Capgemini analysis, 2008.