Milankovic climate Dalj Pandzic 2009

1. Climate Changes and Impacts: Possible Scenario up to 2100 Krešo Pandžić Meteorological and Hydrological Service, CROATIA

2. Content 1 Climate and climate system 2 Paleoclimate 3 Recent global warming 4 Precipitation amount trend 5 Snow and ice cover 6 Processes in the oceans 7 Climate extreme 8 Global climate scenario 9 Conclusion

5. Lithosphere and Biosphere Hydrosphere

6. CRIOSPHERE

7. GREENHOUSE EFFECT

8. - Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) - the burning of the fossil fuels - Kyoto Protocol - UN Climate Convention - EU Directives - IPCC Recommendations

9. RADIATIVE FORCING

10. 2. Paleoclimate

11. Earth's Orbital Changes

12. Paleoclimate cycles

13. The Last Interglacial and the Arctic

14. The Last 1000 Years

15. 3. Recent Global Warming

16. Recent Global Warming

20. 3. Precipitation Amount Trend

23. Palmer’s Drought Severity Index

24. 5. Snow and Ice Cover

25. March-April NH Snow Covering Area

26. CHANGE IN SEA ICE EXTENT Arctic Antarctic

27. ARCTIC Summer 1983 Summer 2003

28. 6. Processes in the Oceans

29. PROCESSES IN THE OCEAN

30. Global sea surface anomalies - El Nino

32. 7. Climate Extremes

33. Cold Extreme Decrease

34. Warm Extreme Increase

35. Extreme Hot Summer 2003 in Central Europe

36. Extreme Warm Summer 2003 in Croatia

37. Extreme Warm Winter 2006/2007 in Croatia

38. Number of Very Wet Day Increase

39. Sahel Recent Drought

41. 8. Global Climate Scenario

42. Comprehensive Climate Models

43. CO 2 Temperature

44. GLOBAL WARMING PROJECTION

45. Decade Temperature Projection

46. REGIONAL TEMPERATURE PRPJECTION

47. European Temperature Projection

48. EUROPEAN PRECIPITATION PROJECTION

49. Frost Days Heat Waves Growing Season

51. Precipitation Intensity Dry Days

52. MORE HOT WEATHER

53. Sea Level Rise

54. Sea Level Rise

55. CO 2 Concentration Scenarios

56. 8. Conclusion - Climate has been changed in the past in long time-scale (1000 years) - Recent global warming on a very short i.e. decade scale (10 to 100 years) - very probably (90 %) caused by man - some measure to limit CO 2 emission - Kyoto Protocol, UN Climate Convention, - IPCC - Political decisions are very important - Role of National Meteorological Service - Agencies for Environmental Protection - education of young people

57. THANK YOU