This document provides steps for creating a sales forecast for a new food business entering retail stores. It outlines 5 steps: 1) selecting a target grocery store, 2) determining the number of stores, 3) number of products (SKUs), 4) estimated units sold per week for each SKU, and 5) using the formula to forecast sales. It then provides an example forecast for selling gluten-free cupcakes through 4 major retailers, estimating over $790,000 in first year revenue. It encourages food entrepreneurs to contact them for help creating a recipe for success.

1. Getting Your Idea Out of the Kitchen
On to the Retailer’s Shelves
And onto the Customer’s Plate
We help you create your Recipe for Success
How to Create a Sales Forecast for your Food Business
info@thefoodpreneur.com ● 973 433 6630

2. Forecasting Techniques

3. Sales Forecasting in 5 Easy Steps
• Step 1 - The Sales Forecast Starts with the Selection
of Your Target Grocery Store
• Step 2 - How many stores are in the supermarket or
grocery store you want to forecast?
• Step 3 - How many products (the number of SKU’s) do
you sell into that grocery store?
• Step 4 - For each SKU, how many units per week do
you think you will sell?
• Step 5 - The Formula for Forecasting Sales

4. Build Up Assumptions
• Product – Gluten Free Cupcakes
• Number of Products – 4
• Price to Retailer - $2.00
ShopRite
Number of Stores
263
Number of SKU's
4
Estimated Velocity
2 Per week
Units per Store Per Week
2104
Price Per Unit Wholesale $
2.00
Weekly Forecast
$ 4,208
Annual Sales Forecast $ 218,816

5. Build Up Assumptions
$218,816
$312,000
Whole Foods
Number of Stores
375
Number of SKU's
4
Estimated Velocity
2 Per week
Units per Store Per Week
3000
Price Per Unit Wholesale $
2.00
Weekly Forecast
$ 6,000
Annual Sales Forecast $ 312,000

6. Build Up Assumptions
$218,816
• xxx
$266,240
$305,344
Trader Joes
Number of Stores
367
Number of SKU's
4
Estimated Velocity
2 Per week
Units per Store Per Week
2936
Price Per Unit Wholesale $
2.00
Weekly Forecast
$ 5,872
Annual Sales Forecast $ 305,344

7. Build Up Assumptions
Year 1 Revenue $790,400
Now… that has credibility and no SWAG!

8. Build Up Assumptions
Year 2 through n
$218,816
$266,240
$305,344
Walmart Supercenter
Number of Stores
3029
Number of SKU's
4
Estimated Velocity
4 Per week
Units per Store Per Week
48464
Price Per Unit Wholesale $
2.00
Weekly Forecast
$ 96,928
Annual Sales Forecast $ 5,040,256

9. Getting Your Idea Out of the Kitchen
On to the Retailer’s Shelves
And onto the Customer’s Plate
Need help creating your recipe for success?
Give us a call.
info@thefoodpreneur.com ● 973 433 6630

10. Getting Your Idea Out of the Kitchen
On to the Retailer’s Shelves
And onto the Customer’s Plate
Need help creating your recipe for success?
Give us a call.
info@thefoodpreneur.com ● 973 433 6630