P160 Hempel, Hume, Deduction, and Induction

PHIL 160 "Induction & Confirmation" PHIL 160

LEARNING OBJECTIVES: PHIL 160 Strategy for theorizing & testing Role of deduction Role of induction Problem of induction

PHIL 160 meaningful claims are testable Verifiability theory of meaning:

SENTENCES IN SCIENTIFIC THEORIES PHIL 160 SENTENCES DESCRIBING EXPERIENCE logical relation that counts as support

PHIL 160 True assumptions guarantee true conclusion. DEDUCTIVE LOGIC ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

PHIL 160 True assumptions support (not guarantee) true conclusion. INDUCTIVE LOGIC ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

PHIL 160 Exemplar of good scientific reasoning: Semmelweis takes on childbed fever 1840s Vienna General Hospital, mothers becoming ill and dying shortly after giving birth. Death rate 5 times higher in 1 st division ward than 2 nd division ward. 1 st division ward – staffed by physicians & med students 2 nd division ward – staffed by midwives.

PHIL 160 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

PHIL 160 STRATEGY: • Identify phenomenon to explain (childbed fever). • Find similar settings, one with the phenomenon, the other without.

PHIL 160 STRATEGY: • Identify phenomenon to explain (childbed fever). • Find similar settings, one with the phenomenon, the other without. • Identify differences between settings. • Test to see which differences are relevant to the phenomenon.

PHIL 160 Find the difference between wards that explains higher rate of childbed fever in 1st division ward. Test: changing the difference lowers rate of childbed fever in 1st division ward. STRATEGY:

PHIL 160 Deductive Argument ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

PHIL 160 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Deductive Argument

PHIL 160 Inductive Argument ,[object Object],[object Object]

PHIL 160 Inductive Argument ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

PHIL 160 Big Assumptions • Cadaveric matter exists, transmitted from autopsies. • Chlorinated lime removes or destroys cadaveric matter. No one observed cadaveric matter!

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PHIL 160 Inductive Argument = premises support conclusion Change that affects outcome.

PHIL 160 Did Semmelweis prove his conclusion? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],“ fallacy of affirming the consequent” True premises don’t guarantee a true conclusion. (There might be another reason I is true!)

PHIL 160 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Did Semmelweis prove his conclusion? “ fallacy of affirming the consequent”

PHIL 160 Semmelweis used his observations to find the relevant difference. His theory led to an effective intervention. But, the data didn’t prove his conclusion.

PHIL 160 Where’s the deduction? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Ruling out potential causes.

PHIL 160 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Where’s the deduction? Ruling out potential causes.

PHIL 160 What’s wrong with induction? Supporting potential causes of childbed fever. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],“ fallacy of affirming the consequent” Where’s the induction?

PHIL 160 All knowledge through experience. Empiricism: (Anything I know has backing in empirical data.)

PHIL 160 Can’t get empirical data about things you haven’t observed! Problem of induction: Can’t be certain things you haven’t observed will be like things you have observed!

P160 Hempel, Hume, Deduction, and Induction

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P160 Hempel, Hume, Deduction, and Induction