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Counting on confusion
Why no one knows how many
people are visiting their websites
What if everyone is wrong?
The mystery emerges
• Boston.com,
BostonHerald.com
complain of lowballing
The mystery emerges
• Boston.com,
BostonHerald.com
complain of lowballing
• Internal counts are
three times higher
than Nielsen ratings
The mystery emerges
• Boston.com,
BostonHerald.com
complain of lowballing
• Internal counts are
three times higher
than Nielsen ratings
• Whose count is
accurate? Agencies’ or
content-providers’?
Panel-based metrics
• Nielsen and comScore
sample what sites
audience is visiting
Panel-based metrics
• Nielsen and comScore
sample what sites
audience is visiting
• Afternoon traffic is
undercounted, local
sites are a challenge
Panel-based metrics
• Nielsen and comScore
sample what sites
audience is visiting
• Afternoon traffic is
undercounted, local
sites are a challenge
• Nielsen once gave
washingtonpost.com
10m and comScore 17m
comScore is now the standard
• About 2 million users
have tracking code on
their computers
comScore is now the standard
• About 2 million users
have tracking code on
their computers
• comScore uses polling
techniques to weight
and adjust its sample
comScore is now the standard
• About 2 million users
have tracking code on
their computers
• comScore uses polling
techniques to weight
and adjust its sample
• Some users may have
had code installed
without permission
Server-side metrics
• An actual count of
incoming traffic.
What could go wrong?
Server-side metrics
• An actual count of
incoming traffic.
What could go wrong?
• Visitors are counted by
device. Less accurate
if they clear cookies.
Server-side metrics
• An actual count of
incoming traffic.
What could go wrong?
• Visitors are counted by
device. Less accurate
if they clear cookies.
• No way of separating
out robotic hits
from search engines
What is a unique visitor?
• Most agree it is
someone who visited
once during time span
What is a unique visitor?
• Most agree it is
someone who visited
once during time span
• Unique visitors per
month is most common
Internet traffic measure
What is a unique visitor?
• Most agree it is
someone who visited
once during time span
• Unique visitors per
month is most common
Internet traffic measure
• Other measures: return
visits, number of page
views, time spent
Dearth of free data
• SimilarWeb works like
comScore except its
data are more open
Dearth of free data
• SimilarWeb works like
comScore except its
data are more open
• Quantcast gets good
reviews from some, but
code must be installed
Dearth of free data
• SimilarWeb works like
comScore except its
data are more open
• Quantcast gets good
reviews from some, but
code must be installed
• Alexa, now owned by
Amazon, offers an
alternative approach
Was newspaper data better?
• No one knows how
many people actually
open up the paper
Was newspaper data better?
• No one knows how
many people actually
open up the paper
• Multipliers of “readers”
versus “subscribers”
is highly suspect
Was newspaper data better?
• No one knows how
many people actually
open up the paper
• Multipliers of “readers”
versus “subscribers”
is highly suspect
• Chicanery to make
numbers look higher
is not unusual
Is there a better way?
• Tony Haile of Chartbeat
is pushing for ad prices
based on time spent
Is there a better way?
• Tony Haile of Chartbeat
is pushing for ad prices
based on time spent
• The Washington Post
has adopted A/B testing
and “lead measures”
Is there a better way?
• Tony Haile of Chartbeat
is pushing for ad prices
based on time spent
• The Washington Post
has adopted A/B testing
and “lead measures”
• In the age of distributed
journalism, the metrics
challenge has grown
Credits
• Much of this presentation is based on
“Confusion Online: Faulty Metrics and the
Future of Digital Journalism,” by Lucas Graves,
John Kelly and Marissa Cluck, Tow Center for
Digital Journalism, Columbia University
Graduate School of Journalism, September
2010.
• Updated on December 6, 2016.

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The trouble with numbers

  • 1. Counting on confusion Why no one knows how many people are visiting their websites
  • 2. What if everyone is wrong?
  • 3. The mystery emerges • Boston.com, BostonHerald.com complain of lowballing
  • 4. The mystery emerges • Boston.com, BostonHerald.com complain of lowballing • Internal counts are three times higher than Nielsen ratings
  • 5. The mystery emerges • Boston.com, BostonHerald.com complain of lowballing • Internal counts are three times higher than Nielsen ratings • Whose count is accurate? Agencies’ or content-providers’?
  • 6. Panel-based metrics • Nielsen and comScore sample what sites audience is visiting
  • 7. Panel-based metrics • Nielsen and comScore sample what sites audience is visiting • Afternoon traffic is undercounted, local sites are a challenge
  • 8. Panel-based metrics • Nielsen and comScore sample what sites audience is visiting • Afternoon traffic is undercounted, local sites are a challenge • Nielsen once gave washingtonpost.com 10m and comScore 17m
  • 9. comScore is now the standard • About 2 million users have tracking code on their computers
  • 10. comScore is now the standard • About 2 million users have tracking code on their computers • comScore uses polling techniques to weight and adjust its sample
  • 11. comScore is now the standard • About 2 million users have tracking code on their computers • comScore uses polling techniques to weight and adjust its sample • Some users may have had code installed without permission
  • 12. Server-side metrics • An actual count of incoming traffic. What could go wrong?
  • 13. Server-side metrics • An actual count of incoming traffic. What could go wrong? • Visitors are counted by device. Less accurate if they clear cookies.
  • 14. Server-side metrics • An actual count of incoming traffic. What could go wrong? • Visitors are counted by device. Less accurate if they clear cookies. • No way of separating out robotic hits from search engines
  • 15. What is a unique visitor? • Most agree it is someone who visited once during time span
  • 16. What is a unique visitor? • Most agree it is someone who visited once during time span • Unique visitors per month is most common Internet traffic measure
  • 17. What is a unique visitor? • Most agree it is someone who visited once during time span • Unique visitors per month is most common Internet traffic measure • Other measures: return visits, number of page views, time spent
  • 18. Dearth of free data • SimilarWeb works like comScore except its data are more open
  • 19. Dearth of free data • SimilarWeb works like comScore except its data are more open • Quantcast gets good reviews from some, but code must be installed
  • 20. Dearth of free data • SimilarWeb works like comScore except its data are more open • Quantcast gets good reviews from some, but code must be installed • Alexa, now owned by Amazon, offers an alternative approach
  • 21. Was newspaper data better? • No one knows how many people actually open up the paper
  • 22. Was newspaper data better? • No one knows how many people actually open up the paper • Multipliers of “readers” versus “subscribers” is highly suspect
  • 23. Was newspaper data better? • No one knows how many people actually open up the paper • Multipliers of “readers” versus “subscribers” is highly suspect • Chicanery to make numbers look higher is not unusual
  • 24. Is there a better way? • Tony Haile of Chartbeat is pushing for ad prices based on time spent
  • 25. Is there a better way? • Tony Haile of Chartbeat is pushing for ad prices based on time spent • The Washington Post has adopted A/B testing and “lead measures”
  • 26. Is there a better way? • Tony Haile of Chartbeat is pushing for ad prices based on time spent • The Washington Post has adopted A/B testing and “lead measures” • In the age of distributed journalism, the metrics challenge has grown
  • 27. Credits • Much of this presentation is based on “Confusion Online: Faulty Metrics and the Future of Digital Journalism,” by Lucas Graves, John Kelly and Marissa Cluck, Tow Center for Digital Journalism, Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, September 2010. • Updated on December 6, 2016.