1. Trends in Disaster
Risk Reduction and
Emergency Management
- the orthodox version -
David Alexander
University College London

2. Physical Environment Social
(including natural, (including cultural,
built, technological)
Liabilities political, economic
Risk Susceptibility
Attributes
VULNERABILITY
Capabilities
Resistance Resilience
Source: McEntire 2001

3. Is this a fair reflection of disaster impacts?

4. Is this a fair reflection of disaster costs?
YES: population is rising,
especially in major hazard zones
YES: climate change is intensifying
meteorological hazards
YES: polarisation and marginalisation are
increasing the vulnerability of the poor
YES: fixed capital at risk is
accumulating in hazard zones.

5. Is this a fair reflection of disaster costs?
NO: very recent inclusion
of indirect and hidden costs
NO: artificial inflation of cost estimates
NO: aggrandisement of disaster
management institutions
NO: out of context with
respect to world resources
NO: disaster is an economic stimulus.

6. Reality check
• there are no "black swans"
• there are large and increasing areas of
uncertainty caused by rising complexity
• applied science must constantly adapt
itself its focus and methods to changes
in hazard and societal vulnerability
• society's priorities and preoccupations
change constantly over time.

7. Treatment of
uncertainty

8. Modified Rumsfeld Classification
unknown
known knowns knowns -
- things we things we
know don't realise
we know
known unknown
unknowns - unknowns -
things we things we
know we don't don't know we
know don't know

9. Knowledge accumulates and accretes.
As it is not fixed over time,
neither is indeterminacy.

10. Indeterminacy Climate
change
Collateral Cascading
vulnerability effects
Interaction Secondary
between risks disasters
"Fat-tailed" (skewed)
distributions Probability
of impacts

11. THE KNOWN
DETERMINISM
Cause Effect
PROBABILITY
Grey (constrained uncertainty)
area Cause Single, multiple
or cascading effects
PURE UNCERTAINTY
Causal relationship
unknown
THE UNKNOWN

12. Utilisation
of research

13. MAGNITUDE
EVENTS
& FREQUENCY
LAG
SCIENCE KNOWLEDGE
LAG
IMPLEMENTATION
LEGISLATION LAG
CUMULATIVE
COMPLIANCE
LAG

14. Optimisation
Technology Response
Message Perception
Plan Culture
Social factors

15. Evolution of fields
and institutions

16. Experience Change and
and theory innovation
Learning
• Unexpected
event
processes
• New Lesson to Lesson
circumstance learned
be learned
• Error
• New
practice
Improved
Recognition and safety
comprehension

17. Environmental context
Latent organisational
Active
Active context
context
organisational
(members'
tools)
context
Practical
Knowledge
experience
After: Argote and Spektor (2011)

18. Armed aggression
on the part of states Natural disasters
Civil defence Civil protection
"Homeland security" "Civil contingencies"
(civil defence) (resilience)
Armed aggression
"Generic" disasters
on the part of
groups of dissidents

19. Civil contingencies
Business Civil Civil
continuity protection defence
management
Resilience
The risk environment

20. Top-down
Evolving Large
strategic technological
situation hazards
Instability Complex
threats hazards
'Na-tech'
Civil Defence (hybrid)
Civil Protection hazards
Enhanced Natural
natural hazards hazards
Evolving Major
climate geophysical
change events
Bottom-up

21. Command function principle:
command and control
model
Information Management
technology decisions
Support function principle:
collaborative and cooperation
model

22. Integration
of systems

23. Knowledge
Knowledge of
of hazards
community
and their
vulnerability
impacts
DRR
Knowledge
of coping
Disaster capacity and
Risk resilience
Reduction

24. Organisational Political Natural
systems: systems: systems:
management decisions function
Hazard Vulnerability
Resilience
Social Technical
systems: systems:
behaviour malfunction

25. Disaster research
Public
News and Information and
participation
information communications
in disaster
dissemination technology
risk reduction
Disaster management

26. Sustainability

27. Hazards
and risks:
disaster
preparedness Uncertain
future:
Governance:
long-term
democratic Livelihoods:
trends
participation diversity
climate
in decision and security
change
making
capacity
to adapt
RESILIENCE:
managing risks
adapting to change
securing resources

28. IMPACT
Varying context:
EMERGENCY
• political
RESPONSE
• economic
• social
SHORT-TERM
RECOVERY P E S
MEDIUM-TERM
RECOVERY P E S
LONG-TERM
RECOVERY P E S
STAGNATION RECONSTRUCTION

29. SUSTAINABILITY
disaster risk reduction
RISKS
daily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc.
major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc.
emerging risks: pandemics, climate change
resource consumption
stewardship of the environment
economic activities
lifestyles
SUSTAINABILITY

30. Conclusions

31. The creation of a culture of civil protection
HABIT
INSTRUMENTS OF
DISSEMINATION
MASS
• mass media
EDUCATION CULTURE • targeted campaign
PROGRAMME
• social networks
• internet
SOCIAL
CAPITAL
Augmentation

32. BENIGN (healthy)
at the service of the people
IDEOLOGY interplay dialectic CULTURE
MALIGN (corrupt)
at the service of vested interests
Justification Development
[spiritual, cultural, political, economic]

33. Obstacles to progress in DRR:-
• corruption and the black economy
• the arms trade, proxy wars
and fomentation of conflict
• denial and curtailment of
human and civil rights
• manufactured consent and
the manipulation of politics
• governance must be
participatory democracy.

34. Adapting to a changing
physical AND social world
• the information technology revolution
• technology and command: seismic shift
• the socialisation of mass media:
opportunity or complication?
• the Geldorf-Bono factor - who leads?

35. Disaster risk reduction: we are
approaching a turning point in history
• The opportunities for positive change
have never been greater.
• Likewise, the tools and mechanisms.
• The obstacles have never
been more formidable.
• Likewise, the challenges.

36. Thank you for your attention!
david.alexander@ucl.ac.uk
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