The document discusses integrated emergency response and building resilience from vulnerability. It provides frameworks for understanding hazards, risks, vulnerability and resilience. Key aspects of emergency planning discussed include multi-hazard planning, flexible plans that anticipate scenarios, and ensuring plans are constantly updated. The document emphasizes building resilience at the local level through sustainable vulnerability reduction programs that involve communities and address risks across the disaster cycle.

1. Integrated Emergency Response:
From Vulnerability to Resilience
David Alexander
University College London

2. Population
(community) Plans,
protection procedures,
protocols
Disaster risk
reduction
Hazard
forecasting, Human
monitoring, Incident and material
etc. management resources

3. Hazard
Exposure
x
Vulnerability
= Risk
Impact
Response

4. An asset is not A hazard is not
vulnerable unless hazardous unless
it is threatened Resilience it threatens
by something something
Hazard RISK Vulnerability
Extreme Elements
events at risk
Exposure

5. Organisational Natural
systems: systems:
management function
Hazard Vulnerability
Resilience
Social Technical
systems: systems:
behaviour malfunction

6. Some models
of vulnerability

7. Primary
• cause and effect
VULNERABILITY
Secondary Complex
• interaction of causes • complicated
• coincidences interactions

8. Physical Environment Social
(including natural, (including cultural,
built, technological)
Liabilities political, economic
Risk Susceptibility
Attributes
VULNERABILITY
Capabilities
Resistance Resilience
Source: McEntire 2001

9. A further classification of vulnerability
Deprived: Wilful:
existing knowledge existing knowledge
not utilised deliberately
ignored
Vulnerability
Pristine:
hazards not yet reduced

10. Vulnerability
Total: life is
generally precarious
Economic: people lack
adequate occupation
Technological/technocratic: due
to the riskiness of technology
Delinquent: caused by
corruption, negligence, etc.
Residual: caused by
lack of modernisation
Newly generated: caused by
changes in circumstances

11. -
negative
Risk perception
factors +
positive
Total
vulnerability
Risk DIALECTIC Risk
amplification mitigation
factors factors

12. Falling hazard Rising
Risk: value of probable costs and losses
Hazard: probability of occurrence with diminishing vulnerability
Vulnerability: potential damage probability of with increasing
occurrence seriousness of
potential
Vertical axis scales:
consequences
Risk as product
of hazard and
vulnerability
Total annual
predicted costs
and losses
Severity
Fat-tailed distribution

13. Indeterminacy Climate
change
Collateral Cascading
vulnerability effects
Interaction Secondary
between risks disasters
"Fat-tailed" (skewed)
distributions Probability
of impacts

14. What is
Resilience?

15. What is resilience [resiliency]?
• a combination of resistance and
adaptation (coping, capacity, capability)
• ability to maintain livelihoods and tenor
of life in the face of disaster shocks
• local autonomy and self-sufficiency.

16. Attitude:
• positive outlook
RESILIENCE
• ingenious approaches
• searching for solutions
• involving other people
Redundancy
• expensive but worthwhile
• alternative solutions
Preparedness: • extra capacity
• emergency plans
• monitoring & forecasting
• warning & evacuation
• public information

17. Redundancy
The ingredients
of resilience
Adaptability Attitude
Participation
...and
communication

18. Causes of disaster
natural geophysical,
technological, social
RESILIENCE
History
Human Adaptation single and
cultures to risk cumulative
constraints impact
and of past
opportunities disasters
IMPACTS

19. Planning to manage
emergencies

20. needs to be needs to be shortened
lengthened
impact
warning
and emergency
evacuation management
and rescue repair of
preparation basic
for the isolation services recovery and
next event reconstruction
needs to be
Risk reduction and disaster mitigation strengthened

21. Hazard
monitoring &
Disaster forecasting
management
Policies
Major Plans Human &
incident Procedures material
management Protocols resources
Incident
management
Population
(community)
protection

22. The emergency plan should be...
• generic: adaptable to many risks
• a process, not merely an end in itself
• flexible and constantly updated
• based on ample research on
scenarios of hazard, risk, etc.
• composed of a synthesis, general
lineaments and detailed appendixes.

24. On the first day of a typical
emergency, 90% of assistance
to victims will be supplied locally
Therefore, if local resources are
insufficient, so will be the relief operations
shortage reduced by
supply efficient
shortage mobilisation
urban SAR
supply
demand demand
time time
Disaster Disaster

25. The challenges of emergency planning
Reduce unmet needs
Rationalise imported assistance
and make it more timely
Unmet
Quantity
Imported
Local
Increase local self-sufficiency
Time

26. Some relevant concepts of
emergency planning:-
• microzonation of hazards and risks
• economic and urban development
only with risk reduction measures
• evaluation of consequences of
impacts and secondary hazards.

27. Preparatory study
Creation and
Stakeholders'
updating Training
opinions
of plan
Revision
Dissemination Information
Exercising Evaluation
Activation Disaster

28. Feedback
and revision
Apparent
chaos Model
Plan
Testing
and revision
Feedback
Evaluation
Disaster
Result

29. HOSPITAL AIRPORT AND
AND HEALTH TRANSPORT
SYSTEM EMERGENCY
EMERGENCY PLANS
PLAN
MUNICIPAL REGIONAL AND
MUTUAL NATIONAL
COUNTY OR
ASSISTANCE EMERGENCY PROVINCIAL
EMERGENCY
PACTS PLAN PLAN
EMERGENCY PLANS
INDUSTRIAL
AND CULTURAL
COMMERCIAL HERITAGE
EMERGENCY EMERGENCY
PLANS PLAN

30. Command
P Policies/Ethics function
organisation
E Strategies
S Tactics
Emergency and
technical services
T
Operations
O
R Results
Public administrators General
and politicians public

31. Hierarchical
divisions: Geographical
national, divisions:
regional, catchments,
local, etc. jurisdictions,
areas, etc.
Division
and
integration
Functional
divisions: Organisational
government, divisions:
healthcare, police, fire,
commerce, etc. ambulance,
etc.

32. Technical Organisational Social
Hazard Decision
to warn Warning
General
Scientists Administrators
Public
Risk
Evaluation communication Protective
action
The warning process

33. Attention!
Perceiving the risk means
verifying its existence
THE SOCIAL PROCESS OF EVACUATION
Dissemination of information
Other news
Activate the decision
of imminent REMAIN IMPACT
disaster Confirm,
verify,
Warning decide Choice of
EVACUATE
information Social context destination
of the
Social context response to
and technology the warning
to warnings

34. hypothetical historical Scenario
ingredients analysis
methodology
initial reference time in emergency
conditions event zero planning
consequences evaluation of
at time 1 the progress
evolution
of the scenario
consequences development
at time 2 of the
evolution scenario
consequences
at time n
Emergency Planning formal evaluation of the
outcome of the scenario

35. Physical Human
impact consequences
LARGE LARGE
SMALL SMALL

36. Towards a culture
of civil protection

37. DEMAND CREATION
OF A NEW
CULTURE
OF CIVIL
POTENTIAL PROTECTION
NEEDS TO BE
EXPLOITED
SUPPLY

38. Knowledge
Knowledge of
of hazards
community
and their
vulnerability
impacts
DRR
Knowledge
of coping
Disaster capacity and
Risk resilience
Reduction

39. Risk
Perception
Culture
Filter
Accurate Inaccurate
Decision
Action
Result
Positive Negative

40. National Family culture
culture
Regional culture
Peer
Value Personal
group
system culture
culture
Work
culture

41. The creation of a culture of civil protection
HABIT
INSTRUMENTS OF
DISSEMINATION
MASS
• mass media
EDUCATION CULTURE • targeted campaign
PROGRAMME
• social networks
• internet
SOCIAL
CAPITAL
Augmentation

42. Optimisation
Technology Response
Message Perception
Plan Culture
Social factors

43. Managing emergencies

44. Secondary
staging
Mortuary area
area Medical post
medical post
for personnel
Advance
Minor
injuries
Incident Triage Primary treatment
command
post area staging area
Ambulance Control post
Rescue
loop loading area
Mass
MASS CASUALTY media
INCIDENT post
Helicopter
ambulance
Inner cordon
Managing the emergency with incident command system

45. Policy outcomes
Planning, Fusion with
warning and sustainability
preparedness agenda
Enhanced Organised
structural non-structural
protection protection
Protection strategy

46. Resilience against disasters:
Ten suggestions for action

47. Tell people what to do in a crisis.

48. Develop urban search and
rescue capacity on site.

49. Reduce non-structural as
well as structural hazards.

50. Plan flexibly.

51. Create networks.

52. Encourage governance.

53. Adapt and disseminate good practice.

54. Ensure that Disaster Risk Reduction
(DRR) programmes are sustainable

55. Create a strategy for recovering
from the next disaster.

56. Create a culture of resilience
against disasters.

57. ...and avoid the
myth of panic:
it should not be
treated as a
relevant factor
in emergency
planning

58. Conclusions:-
Emergency planning must be:
• multi-hazard
• flexible
• based on accurate zonation
• based on scenarios which
anticipate predicable developments
• constantly updated.

59. What is sustainable vulnerability reduction?
• it is centred upon the local level
(but is harmonised from above)
• through consultation it has the support
and involvement of the population
• plans tackle all the phases of the
disaster cycle - in an integrative way
• it is a fundamental, every-day service
for the population and is taken seriously.

60. SUSTAINABILITY
disaster risk reduction
RISKS
daily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc.
major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc.
emerging risks: pandemics, climate change
resource consumption
stewardship of the environment
economic activities
lifestyles
SUSTAINABILITY

61. Hazards
and risks:
disaster
preparedness Uncertain
future:
Governance:
long-term
democratic Livelihoods:
trends
participation diversity
climate
in decision and security
change
making
capacity
to adapt
RESILIENCE:
managing risks
adapting to change
securing resources

62. david.alexander@ucl.ac.uk
Thank you
for listening!
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