Information Markets for Human Resource Planning & Management
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Presentation by Rose Baker and David Passmore at <i>Measuring Your Talent and Organization: Beyond the Basics</i> in the CEO 2006 Teleconference Series on Human Resources and Metrics sponsored by the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, 16 November 2006.
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Information Markets for Human Resource Planning & Management
- 1. Information Futures Markets for Human Resource Planning and Management Rose M. Baker David L. Passmore Penn State
- 3. What techniques do you use to obtain information?
- 7. A typical commodity futures contract… 5,000 bushels of No. 2 Yellow Corn for delivery in Minneapolis, Minnesota on 1 March 2006.
- 8. Prices have useful features… Act like a vacuum sweeper, collecting and aggregating information that is otherwise highly decentralized and privately held.
- 10. A NewsFutures market: Outcome of Super Bowl…
- 11. Super Bowl market: Price/volume plot for 24 hours
- 12. NewsFutures Super Bowl market: Closing details
- 14. An information futures market: Foresight Exchange … http://www.ideosphere.com
- 15. BUSH04 contract from Foresight Exchange … “ G.W. Bush, the president of the United States at the time that this claim started trading, will still be president on 2005-02-01 (after the inauguration after the election is usually scheduled).”
- 16. Criterion for judging BUSH04 … “ This claim will be TRUE even if elections are postponed or G.W. Bush remains in power by staging a coup. If there are events which make it confusing who the US president is, as of 2005-02-01, this claim is true if G.W. Bush is leading a sovereign government in at least part of the United States of America that has recognition of at least one of the UN Security Council permanent members (Britain, China, and Russia) other than the United States.”
- 17. Price plot for BUSH04
- 18. Volume plot for BUSH04
- 22. TradeSports…
- 23. Intrade…
- 25. THE POTENTIAL…
- 26. Collective intelligence & markets in public eye
- 28. Means of aggregating information used… Single estimate Probability distribution Single estimate or distribution 10% 10% 80%
- 33. BUSINESS CASES…
- 39. Corning LCD TV…
- 43. Penn State Idea Futures Market…
- 45. Rose M. Baker [email_address] David L. Passmore [email_address]
- 46. Information Futures Markets for Human Resource Planning and Management Rose M. Baker David L. Passmore Penn State