TheTrendwatch #10

TheTrendWatch by FullSIX Group

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Future is about breakthrough,
not incremental evolution.


e’re in the midst of a sea change…
As of March 2009, we now spend more time social networking
than emailing.

Around the globe, social technology is introducing new consumer
behavior, which in turn, is sprouting disruptive business and
communication models. And with a massive Google Wave
heading to shore, the forecast calls for a higher frequency of
creative destruction.

In these frenzied waters, incremental evolution may help a
business model survive, but not thrive. The future is about
breakthrough. And it belongs to the business models that adapt
quickly to movements in social behavior and technology.
So grab a board, paddle out with us and examine 10 new business
and communication models that are positioned for a killer ride.

2007
Facebook users = population of Italy
(50 million)

2008
Facebook users = population of Russia
(140 million)

2009
Facebook users = population of USA
(300 million)


Sources: Socialnomics - http://socialnomics.net/


#1
Enhanced Reality
Because reality bites...


Most parents, at one time or another, have scolded
their kids for spending too much time in the virtual
world. “Go outside and play in the real world”,
they’ve cried.
What will kids think tomorrow, when they see
a bunch of grownups walking around, blurring the
lines between what’s virtual and what’s real?
Dubbed AR, Augmented Reality technology uses a
smartphone’s camera, GPS, and compass,
to overlay virtual information on top of one’s real
world surroundings. Part useful, part captivating,
AR can also be bundled to emit buzz.

1 out of 9 french households have a WII
(3 ,2 million)

83% of WII players play as a family

25% of WII players are 35-50 Y.O.

Source: Institut GFK (mai 2009) - OpinionWay (2008)


Sources: Fujitsu U-Scan - http://www.fujitsu.com/


The most powerful brand experiences
enliven the senses.

By helping consumers master their surroundings,
AR is like adding a 6th sense to your overall
brand experience.


#2
Geospatial Intelligence
The location of anything is everything!


We live in the Global Location Age.

‘Where am I?’ is being replaced by ‘Where am I in
relation to everything else?’

The answer to the emerging question ‘Where am I in
relation to everything else?’ is a new business
opportunity for every brand. The more we go
mobile, the more we will question our
surroundings. Brands that proactively deliver real-
time contextual answers will be a point of interest on
the map and in social networks (where everywhere
we go/everything we consume is shared).

USA
33% percent of consumers are interested
in using their cell phones to find local
businesses and products.

EUROPE
52% of smartphone owners with mobile
Internet are interested in using mobile
geo-localized services.

Sources: 2008, Jupiter /Forrester Research


By meeting our need for geospatial intelligence,
brands can move potential customers from Point A
(aware of products & services) to Point B (buyers
based on geospatial intelligence).


#3
C-commerce
Introducing 'Content Commerce'


Retail and the entertainment industry have always
been close.

But with the explosion of interactive video, they’re
about to be joined at the hip.

C-commerce enables viewers to click on video
content and buy items as they watch.

For Fight Club fans, it looks like the Ikea catalogue
scene you loved is now a reality.


According to ComScore, Youtube became
the second worldwide search engine.

In January 2009,
U.S. Internet users viewed 14.8 billion online
videos during the month… Every minute they
watched the equivalent of every radio and TV show
ever created since 1940 in france.

The French “INA archives” (European leader)
managed to digitalize only 250,000 docs
over the past 40 years!

USA
42 hours/week entertainment (all screens)
42 hours/week working
42 hours/week sleeping

EUROPE
32 hours/week entertainment (all screens)
49 hours/week working
42 hours/week sleeping

Sources: Council for Research Excellence and Nielsen, March
2009


Content will increasingly drive commerce.


#4
Cross-screen
Walk through the new consumer path.


The media universe is expanding and media
consumption is up on all screens.
What this means to marketers is game changing:
the message will need to be accessible when, where
and how consumers want it, with a tailored added
value.


Let’s transform fragmentation into synergy...

In France, any person over 13 is exposed
to 38,6 multimedia screen per day
(+13,9% compared to 2005)


m: 1


The emerging communication model is
the game-scenario vs. movie storytelling.

Brands that breakthrough will create
a game-like environment, where consumers
“live inside” the communication, follow their own
path and personalize the experience.


#5
Micro-commerce
Digital 'a la carte'


For over a decade, there have been big promises
for micro-payment solutions.

Yet we’ve only seen small change; unless, of
course, you consider a little platform called iTunes.

And with the iPhone OS 3.0 enabling in-app
payments, Apple is poised to once again make
small change add up quickly; and so too will every
other brand as micro-commerce goes macro.


According to NPD MusicWatch (2009), when it
comes to the unit-sales volume of music sold
at retail – including paid digital music downloads
and CDs – Apple iTunes leads in the U.S. with 25
percent of music units sold, which is up from 21
percent in 2008 and 14 percent in 2007.

Walmart (including Walmart, Walmart.com,
Walmart Music Downloads) remains in second
position with 14 percent of music volume sold
at their stores and Web sites with Best Buy ranked
third.

Apple's App Store could emerge a $1.2 billion
business by the end of 2009...


Micro-commerce is activating new revenue
streams for digital media, and all companies.

Offering up goods and services in micro-payments
can help virtually any brand convert pre-
meditated consumer behavior into impulse
purchase decisions.


#6
Talkin’world
Are you talking to me?


If your fridge, your plants or anything in your
house could talk, they would probably have a lot to
say.

Imagine your secretary buzzing you, “I’ve got Rose
on line 2, she says she desperately needs
water.” What will happen when you forget to
water Rose? Will she send a last tweet
alerting your friends of neglect? As more
objects ‘informationalize’, they could become
powerful communication channels of their own.


1,5 billion Coca-Cola bottles are sold everyday,
45 million every hour,
750,000 buyers every minute...

The best score ever for a TV show broadcast by
CBS is 10 million viewers.

Every month CNN attracts 72 million people.
Coca-Cola does the same in less than 2 hours.


Objects as channels could be an endearing way to
engage consumers and build social interaction
around a product.

Brands now have their own free media!


#7
Ground-swell surfing
Find the best spot.


Wind speed, duration and fetch are three main
factors in the ocean that produce groundswell
waves (a.k.a. surfer’s gold).

These same three factors are at work online: new
social technology is emerging swiftly (speed), all
segments are spending more time social
networking (duration) in every corner of the globe
(fetch). The net effect has been golden for business
models old and new that are positioning
themselves for the ride.


Research findings of Dr. Cameron Marlow, the “in-
house sociologist” at Facebook, suggests that
the average number of “friends” in a Facebook
network is 120, consistent with the Dunbar
number.


Even the most traditional businesses can benefit
from the ground-swell by reorganizing how
production and consumption are organized (vs.
merely how goods and services are bought and
sold). By incentivizing individual production/
action, any social brand/platform can amass a
following and affect global change.


#8
Data wars
The race for the web 3.0


If Facebook were a country it would be the world’s
4th largest between the United States and
Indonesia; a “social graph” of this size
hides untapped resources for any brand.

In the past, Facebook’s data would have been
daunting to extract and make sense of. But
with advancements in data visualization
technology, it’s becoming easier to understand
complex patterns and correlations. And as
Facebook (and soon Twitter) welcomes foreign
exploration, new streams of revenue will be
visualized and the data war will only escalate.

By 2011, the digital universe
will be 10 times the size it was in 2006.


The benefits of data visualization are
enormous. From an R&D perspective, it’s a way to
gain new insight into complex social behavior.

From a sales and marketing perspective, it's a
platform for showcasing products and services in
the context of the cultural interaction that
surrounds them.


#9
Freemium model
Why $0.00 Is the Future of Business


Chris Anderson’s theory on Free has been
contentious. And rightly so; it seems risky to give
away goods and services we typically charge for.

On the flip side, it’s precarious to rely on
advertising to sell ‘me-too’ goods and services
amidst the clutter.

To breakthrough, it increasingly pays to let a mass
audience experience a brand’s value proposition
gratis. Because when a brand nails that experience,
people will line up to pay for premium goodies that
are hiding behind the curtain.

In communications, tension helps a message to
breakthrough.

Freemium, on the other hand, applies tension to
convert basic goods/services to premium ones.

“Information wants to be free. Information also
wants to be expensive… That tension will not go
away.”
– Steward Brand


#10
The long tail vs. DNA-generated
The future of ultra-customization


The problem with the Long Tail is that superficial
nuances in pre-manufactured product lines are
flawed.

Take drugs for example. Due to differences in
DNA, up to 60% of the most common drugs today
are associated with side affects. Imagine the brand
opportunity for a drug company, or any company
for that matter, that can reduce adverse product
reactions to virtually zero by producing goods
shortly after consulting an individual’s make up.


As the cost of flexible computer-aided
manufacturing systems decreases, more
companies will disrupt and gain competitive
advantage over a Long Tail approach.

The positive reactions in one category could
be contagious to others.


Conclusion
The biggest lesson of the ﬁrst digital era


Thank you!

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TheTrendwatch #10

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