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20121009 Iea Iraq Energy Outlook
- 2. Iraq: the energy context
Oil & natural gas resources are immense & the costs of production
are among the lowest in the world
Already the world’s 3rd largest oil exporter, with plans to expand
oil & natural gas production rapidly
Natural gas is an under-utilised resource – more than half of the
natural gas produced is flared
Catching up & keeping pace with rising demand for electricity
is critical to national development
Energy infrastructure & institutions, while improving, continue to be
a serious constraint:
Legacy of damage & poor maintenance
Lack of consensus on governance of the hydrocarbons sector
© OECD/IEA 2012
- 3. Oil is the cornerstone of Iraq’s economy
GDP, share of oil export revenues, population in 2011
$578 billion
$482 billion
$177 billion
$115 billion GDP
Oil export
revenues
72% 55% 24% 52%
Iraq Kuwait Iran Saudi Arabia
31 million 3 million 75 million 28 million Population
Twin challenges for Iraq are to increase its oil revenues & then to use them
to support greater diversification of its economy
© OECD/IEA 2012
- 4. Oil is poised for a major expansion
Iraq oil production Iraq oil exports
mb/d 9 mb/d 9 Other
North
8 Centre 8 Asia
7 South 7
6 6
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
2012 2020 2035 2012 2020 2035
Production more than doubles by 2020 & reaches more than 8 mb/d by 2035,
with Iraq becoming a major supplier to Asian markets, especially to China & India
© OECD/IEA 2012
- 5. What will determine the pace of growth?
Political consensus on oil governance & legal framework
Speed & coordination of investment along the supply chain
Avoiding bottlenecks in storage & transportation
Sufficient water to support oil production
Drilling rigs & expertise
Iraq’s long-term oil & natural gas development strategy
Our High Case of 9 mb/d by 2020 would equal the highest sustained
growth in the history of the oil industry
International market conditions
© OECD/IEA 2012
- 6. Iraq leads global oil production growth
Growth in oil production, 2011-2035
Non-OPEC
12%
Iraq
45%
Rest of OPEC
42%
Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035;
by the 2030s it becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia
© OECD/IEA 2012
- 7. Iraq takes its place on the global gas map
Growth in key natural gas producers, 2011-2035
China
Russia
United States
Australia
Turkmenistan
Iraq
Qatar
Iran
Brazil
Algeria
50 100 150 200 250 bcm
Iraq can potentially provide a very cost-competitive gas supply by pipeline to
neighbouring countries or to Europe and – via liquefied natural gas – to Asia
© OECD/IEA 2012
- 8. Gas moves from sideshow to centre stage
Iraq’s natural gas balance
bcm 100
Production
80 Demand
60
40
20
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Reductions in gas flaring & development of new gas fields will be needed
to meet Iraq’s growing domestic needs & its export ambitions
© OECD/IEA 2012
- 9. Catching up with power demand
Iraq electricity generation
TWh 300
Shortfall in generation
250 Hydro & other renewables
Natural gas
200
Oil
150
100
50
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Oil helps to eliminate the power deficit in 2015. But without a longer-term shift to
gas-fired power, Iraq would forego more than $500 billion in oil export revenue
© OECD/IEA 2012
- 10. A chance to transform Iraq’s prospects
Iraq annual oil and natural gas revenues
Billion dollars 350
(2011)
300
250
200
150
100
50
2012 2020 2035
$5 trillion in cumulative export receipts is 10% of all revenues
from global oil trade; Iraq’s GDP in 2035 rises to the level of Saudi Arabia today
© OECD/IEA 2012
- 11. A step-change in energy investment
Iraq annual average requirement for energy investment
Billion dollars 30
(2011) Natural gas
25 Electricity
Oil
20
15
10
5
2011 2012-2020 2021-2035
The overall investment bill of $530 billion is 10% of oil export revenues,
but annual spending needs to increase quickly over the current decade
© OECD/IEA 2012
- 12. Delay would come at a high price
Iraq oil production profiles
mb/d 10
Central Scenario
8
6
Delayed Case
4
2
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
If investment & oil production growth is delayed then global oil markets tighten,
with prices $15 higher in 2035, & Iraq’s cumulative GDP would be $3 trillion lower
© OECD/IEA 2012
- 13. Iraq’s transformation
has global implications
With 45% of the anticipated growth in global production to 2035,
Iraq is key to the long-term outlook for oil markets
Successful oil & gas development requires a shared vision for the
sector & efforts to coordinate investment all along the supply chain
Delay would come at a high cost to Iraq and to international markets
Productive use of natural gas is critical to a healthy domestic balance
Oil export revenues can provide the foundations for a modern and
prosperous Iraqi economy
© OECD/IEA 2012