An overview of the Livestock-Climate Change CRSP PTRF (Pastoral Transformations to Resilient Futures--Understanding Climate from the Ground Up) Project and update on the project's current status. Presentation given by K. Galvin (Colorado State University) at the Livestock-Climate Change CRSP Annual Meeting, Golden, CO, April 26-27, 2011.

1. Pastoral Transformations to Resilient Futures: Understanding Climate From the Ground Up K. Galvin, R. Reid, J. Njoka, D.Ole Nkedianye, P. Thornton This presentation was made possible by the United States Agency for International Development and the generous support of the American people through Grant No. EEM-A-00-10-0001. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.

2. Overall Project Objectives Objective 1: understand the important climate and social changes affecting livestock management in two pastoral areas: Athi-Kaputiei Plains and the Greater Mara Ecosystem. Objective 2: how do pastoralists observe climate and other changes and how has it affected livestock condition management and marketing strategies. Objective 3: hold 2 workshops hosted by Maasai NGOs to develop solutions

3. Change in Social-Ecological Systems Political Economy (policy, power) P Global Region Place Social capital Exposure (Objective1) Climate Globalization: land tenure change tourism population increases markets Structure/Sensitivity (Objective 2) Social and Natural Capital: Ecosystem Livestock, Wildlife Land Use Livelihoods Adaptability/Action (Objective 3) Governance Land use decisions Livestock management ??? Persist? Transform? Perceptions of risk (Objective 2) Impact Environmental Influences Vulnerability Resilience Based on: Chapin and Kofinas 2009; Turner et al 2003

5. Land tenure (privatization, exclusivity, “land grabbing”)

6. Livelihood goals and aspirations

7. Livelihood diversification, intensification

8. Climate

9. Access to markets, labor

11. Human population in 2000 Uganda Lake Victoria Maasai Mara Serengeti low Kenya medium high Tanzania Kruska and Reid (1999)

12. Cropland in Maasailand, Kenya and Tanzania Cropping % Red = 10-20% Tan = 40% Green = 60% Light blue = 80-100% Africover, FAO

14. decreasing/increasing rainfall trends (depending on location)

15. melting and retreat of mountain glaciers;

17. resurgences of some diseases;

18. rivers becoming more seasonal or disappearing altogether;

19. shrinking of lake levels; and

21. Rainfall Trends In Kenya Nyahururu Nyahururu Nyahururu Marsabit Narok KMD

22. African agricultural areas projected to undergo a > 20% reduction in growing season length by 2050 …rainfall may go up, but it will get hotter, so in many places, it will be drier… IPCC (2007) citing Thornton et al. (2006)

24. Spatial-temporal Scales of Drivers & Changes (Not an exhaustive list)

26. Progress of project Workshop, focus group interviews Trailer of video Surveys, focus groups, key informant interviews underway Workshop in August with focus groups Development of video

27. Objectives of workshop: Observations of climate change The science of climate change Changes from the dryland regions Future scenarios Pathways to the Future

28. Changes in weather

29. Land Tenure and land use

30. Soil, pasture and water changes

31. Other changes Livestock condition, movement and marketing Disruption of movement routes Decrease in production Shift to sheep and goats Livelihoods Diversification Growth of women managed activities Low incomes affects education, health Social relations Weaker family stability; increased conflict

32. solutions Security Infrastructure: roads, education, storage of fodder, marketing information and abbatoirs, water, banking, climate information Land use policy to open, unfenced land Disease free zones, human and veterinary Economic diversification: tourism, dryland products, women in business, health Environmental development: tree planting, wind, dryland products: aloe, gum arabic

34. Link pastoralists to East Africa Community, COMESA, IGAD and Arab markets

35. County* and nation provide security, markets*, zones for land use, infrastructure, education, banking, health and veterinary services

36. County level pastoral department

38. Lessons learned Climate never acts in isolation Pastoralists learn from each other No single solution is appropriate for all pastoral regions Gender differences in the consequences of climate change. Implications for food security There is a need for climate forecasts and what climate change is

39. Emerging issues Bring local voices from climate policy to county governance Gender issues from economic diversification to food security Compare different pastoral regions Scale issues from the local to the regional

41. They want both community self-determination and rights of access to state and other resources

42. It will take new capacities: managerial, marketing, education, inter-institutional coordination