Presented by Lieven Claessens at the CGIAR-CSI Annual Meeting 2009: Mapping Our Future. March 31 - April 4, 2009, ILRI Campus, Nairobi, Kenya

1. Spatial Analysis
@
The International Potato Center (CIP)
CSI 2009
Lieven Claessens
Roberto Quiroz, Reinhard Simon, Ian Barker,
Adolfo Posadas, Percy Zorogastua

2. Geographical Presence
South, West and Central Asia
- New Delhi, India
- Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Latin America
& Caribbean
East and Southeast
- Lima, Peru (HQ)
Asia & Pacific:
- Quito, Ecuador
- Lembang-Bandung,
- La Paz, Bolivia
Indonesia
- Beijing, China
- Hanoi, Vietnam
Sub-Saharan Africa:
- Nairobi, Kenya
- Kampala, Uganda
- Maputo, Mozambique
- Lilongwe, Malawi
- Huambo, Angola

3. Research Structure

4. Spatial Data and Analysis @ CIP:
 Data Management / Sharing
• Genebank data management
• (Sweet) Potato Atlas:
- Geography / Potential production zones
• Contributions to Geonetwork: - Spatial data on (sweet) potato
- Climate surfaces
• DIVA-GIS…
 Modeling and GIS
• System Analysis (‘Tradeoff Analysis’)
• Digital Soil Mapping
• Environmental Vulnerability Assessment
• Climate Change applications
• Pest and Disease modeling
 Remote Sensing
• Disease detection
• Cropping areas / crop statistics

5. Data Management / Sharing
• Genebank data management:
- Linkage of in-situ & ex-situ genebank management (potato parque Cuzco)
- ‘Participatory’ GIS

6. Modeling and GIS
• Ag. System Analysis (Tradeoffs production ~ env.):
- Modeling scenarios of technology and policy interventions
- Tradeoff Analysis framework: coupled bio-physical and econometric models
- Spatially explicit (depending on research question)
 Effects of market prices on soil nutrient depletion
 Ex ante impact assessment of introducing improved varieties in CC context
 Effects of adapting ICM practices on soil fertility/health
 Land use change / intensification scenarios
 Effects of water harvesting (e.g. terracing) on yields and poverty
www.tradeoffs.nl

7. Modeling and GIS
• Environmental Vulnerability Assessment:
- Modeling scenarios of agricultural intensification
 Land Degradation (e.g. landslides, water erosion)
 Nutrient depletion
 Pesticide leaching

8. Modeling and GIS
• Potential soil erosion in Africa (ILRI):
- Secondary data: climate, soils, topography, landcover, hydrology
- (R)USLE + attempts on using physically based model (LAPSUS)

9. Modeling and GIS
• Climate Change applications:
- Drought mapping based on RS (time series of NDVI)
Drought Probability Index
Drought Probability Index
‘Normal’
El Niño
Max NDVI Min NDVI Current NDVI PCC Drought Map

10. Modeling and GIS
• Climate Change applications:
- Ex ante assessment of adaptation technologies/policies
(e.g. introduction of drought-, heat-, disease - tolerant or short duration varieties,…)
- Collaboration with Max Planck Institute for Metereology on regional climate modeling
- Wavelet tools for rainfall mapping (climate extremes)
Vulnerability to Climate extremes: Wavelet tools for rainfall mapping
(ppm)
HUANCANE
50
40
m.m.
30
20
10
0
1-Jan-99 20-Jul-99 5-Feb-00 23-Aug-00 11-Mar-01 27-Sep-01 15-Apr-02 1-Nov-02
Días

11. Modeling and GIS
• Pest and Disease modeling:
- Linking pest and disease modeling with spatial predictions of environmental conditions
(e.g. Potato Tuber Moth lifecycle & Late Blight modeling linked to Climate Change)
B
A

12. Modeling and GIS
• Pest and Disease modeling:
- Risk mapping of Potato yellow vein virus

13. Remote Sensing
• Disease Detection:
- Low cost air-borne platforms for high resolution RS
- Spectral signatures of disease symptoms
- Early warning applications
(e.g. potato yellow vein virus transmitted by whiteflies)

14. NDVI
0-0.1
0.1-0.2
0.2-0.3
0.3-0.4
0.4-0.5
0.5-0.6
Fresh yield (t/ha)
<16
>24
60 60
50 50
Fresh yield (t/ha)
Fresh yield (t/ha)
40 40
30 30
20 20
10
10
0
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 23 4 56 7 8 9 10 11 12
Plot
Plot
Normal irrigation
Deficit irrigation Terminal drought

15. Remote Sensing
• Crop statistics / areas:
- High resolution satellite imagery (SPOT, 10 and 5 m)
- Digital processing to discriminate small sweet potato fields from others
- Results indicate only 63% of crop area in national statistics
- Seeking collaboration for commodity atlasses!
ORANGE FIELDS = SP

16. THANK YOU