23. Jungle – survival of the
fittest
• It’s a jungle out
there!
• Tiger always in a
battle?
• Life and organization
is dense, tangled and
impenetrable
vegetation
• Emotions evoke
threat,
powerlessness,
disorientations,
immobilisation
• Future uncultivated
24. Chess Set - Strategy
• Smart
• Life is a like
tournament, you’ve got
to have battles everyday
• Control of the center
• Power struggle
• Winner takes all
• Chess pawns of the
King/Queen (higher
power)?
• Fire power can do
wonders
• Life is a strategy/ a tactic
• Future is on a Stalemate
• Future is Math
25. Mountain Tops – Alternative
Futures
• I've been to the mountain top
• The promised land
• High places for a moment of
reflection
• A vista for the way forward
• View from above
• The journey is long, travel
light
• Enjoy the view
• Life is liberating
• Contouring uncertainties
• Clarify alternatives
• The big picture
• I have seen and experienced
what’s possible
• The future has a lot of
possibilities
26. Star – Vision
• The vision is luminous
and radiant, glowing
with possibilities
• The vision is detailed
and actually
reachable
• The stars are the
bright points of life
• Guiding light
• Divine inspiration
• Inspiration, aspiration
• Creative brilliance
• I am a visionary / the
organization is a
visionary
• The future is neither
too far nor too near
27. Using the futures landscape, what is your
metaphor for the future (agrarian reform
communities / agrarian reform development)?
Why?
28. The Future
• Not to predict but to forecast possibilities
• To know the future and create our preferred
future
• The future is too complex for one
person/organization/nation/civilization to
control
• The future is not one but many futures
• Humans have free will, humans can influence
/ create the future (Inayatullah, 2013)
29. The future enters into us, in order to
transform itself in us, long before it happens
Rainer Maria, Letter to a Young Poet
31. What constitutes reality in agrarian reform
communities? agrarian reform development?
(what is the present? what is real? what is felt? What is
possible? What is not? What is preferred?)
32. future triangle
• Provide context to our discussion and
exploration on the future of agrarian reform
communities and/or agrarian reform
development futures
• Map three qualitative dimensions of the
future so that plausible (likely future) can be
better understood
• For us to have a 3D (triangular) perspective of
ARC futures
33. PULL OF THE FUTURE
PUSH OF THE
PRESENT
WEIGHT OF
HISTORY
What are the images that
leads us forward? What is
pulling us towards the
future? Any competing
dimensions of the future?
What are the barriers to
the envisioned changes?
What are the things that
drag us back, that slows
us down?
What are the pushes of the
present that push us to the
future? What are the
drivers or trends shaping the
future
34. What will the future be like for Agrarian Reform
Communities say in the year 2025?
35. What are the hopes?
what are the fears?
what are the disowned?
what is our preferred future?
36. What are the drivers / influencers
shaping the future of agrarian reform
communities? (with 2025 in mind)
38. List at least two (2) major issues / events that
might drive / influence (based on your
experience, socio-organizational context, view,
feeling, projection, prospection) the future of
agrarian reform communities (with 2025 in
mind)
40. scenarios
“hardware” of the future
RAND corporation 1950s (military and strategic studies)
Moon Mission
Mars Mission
Shell Corporation (the future of energy)
Singapore
Taiwan
Korea China Malaysia
42. What are the likely scenarios for agrarian reform
communities in 2025?
What are the hopes, fears in 2025?
Are there hidden assumptions about the future say in
2025?
What is our preferred future? The future that we desire
most for agrarian reform communities?
45. Business as usual Scenario
• Having things go along as usual
• A situation that has returned to its usual state
again after an unpleasant or surprising event
• “Even right after the flood, it was business as
usual in all the stores. Please, everyone, business
as usual. Let's get back to work.”
• Spotlight on status quo / best as usual events
• The consequence / impact of continuing current
trends in, example, population, technology,
governance, economics, urbanization, etc.
(agrarian reform issues, events).
46.
47. Worst Case Scenario
• Worst possible environment or outcome out
of the several possibilities in planning or
simulation.
• Spotlight on dangers / worst case scenario
events
• a situation in which the most unfavourable
conditions prevail
• is a situation where everything that can go
wrong has gone wrong.
48.
49. Outlier Scenario
• an event that is numerically distant from other events, thus
appearing to be markedly different from other events in a
sample.
• observation that is numerically distant from the rest of the
data.
• outliers do indeed regularly occur (anomalous cases / we
now live in the abnormal times – frequency may increase)
• Outlier can occur by chance, they are the unforeseeable
events, unsupervised scenarios
• Spotlight on emerging, weak signals, out of the radar
events / outlier scenario events
• Outlier detection can identify system faults and fraud
before they escalate with potentially catastrophic
consequences (positive or negative).
• Something unplanned and out control is bound to happen
50.
51. Best Case Scenario
• the optimum outcome being considered
• the most favorable result possible
• A better result than expected
• a projection of future events that assumes
only the best possible circumstances
• spotlights the best possible result
• Best possible real world that you can ever get
54. “If there is truer than truth.
It’s story.”
Jewish saying
55. Workshop
• Each group has to create a story about the future of
agrarian reform communities using the two major
driver/influencer variables and archetype scenario (best,
worst, outlier, business as usual) in mind.
• The story should start in the year 2012 (sets the stage)
progressing into the year 2015, 2020 and 2025. What are
the headlines in those years? What are the events, issues
that has happened that led to the news headlines say in
2015, 2020 and 2025? What is the resolution in 2025?
What is you narrative? What is the title of the (your) story?
• Be creative and use your imagination as much as possible.
The catch, however, is that it should be plausible (heartfelt)
and could happen in the future.
• This does not mean, however, that we have to limit our
capacity for creativity and imagination. Important in this
process is not the forecast but the insights that we get in
the scenario process.
56. when we think about the future, about the
many possibilities of the future, the present
becomes more remarkable, significant …
57. All successful people men and women are big
dreamers. They imagine what their future could
be, ideal in every respect, and then they work
every day toward their distant vision, that goal
or purpose.
Brian Tracy
58. The best thing about the future is that it comes
one day at a time.
Abraham Lincoln
When I think about the future of my country, my province, my community – many images come to my mind … this images represent hope, visions, the ideal, the love, etc. the legacy that transform everyone especially at the heartfelt level of our existence
But given the impact of a rapidly changing world like climate change, the global recession, typhoons, corruption, etc. fears, trauma, hopelessness compete, and sometimes takes over. my view of reality suddenly changes into something dim, dark and hopeless
But then yet again, as always we persevere to change, to transform our life, reality…make our lives better…we believe in hope, we believe in love. In the end, we realize that our life affects others through the sacrifices that we make for our brothers and sisters, for our communities, for our country, for the world. That there could be no other way to feel happy but to make others happy.
family
Random grouping … 6 to 7 per group …
Social – society, cultural, religion, values, behavior and the like Technological – technology, invention, the web, urbanizationEconomic – business, banks, industry Environment – weather, climate, Political – policy, institution, processes, procedures, priorities
Scenarios are one of the most popular and persuasive methods used in Futures Studies. Government planners, corporate strategists and military analysts use them in order to aid decision-making. Introduce by RAND Corporation in the 1950s. A scenario is not a specific forecast of the future, but a plausible description of what might happen. Scenarios are like stories built around carefully constructed plots based on trends and events. They assist in selection of strategies, identification of possible futures, making people aware of uncertainties and opening up their imagination and initiating learning processes. The term scenario comes from the dramatic arts. A scenario in the theater refers to an outline of the plot and in movies it is a summary or set of directions for the sequence of action. A scenario is a story with plausible cause and effects links that connects a future condition with present, while illustrating key decisions, events and consequences throughout the narrative. The purpose of scenarios is to systematically explore , create and test consistent alternative future environments that encompass the broadest set of operating conditions that the user might plausibly face.
