Craig Rispin Futurist Keynote for Complementary Healthcare Council of Australia

2. Know First • Be First • Profit First
Craig Rispin
Business Futurist & Innovation Expert
www.FutureTrendsGroup.com
craig@futuretrendsgroup.com
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4. People
Business Technology
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5. People
W
or
Sh k/L s
ift ife ife ce
L n
e
S ci
Acceleration
Business Globalised Technology
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6. Some Future Trends are
Based on Facts...
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7. “Demographics are
destiny.”
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9. Some Future Trends are
Based on Big Ideas...
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10. Karl Fisch - TheFischBowl.blogspot.com
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12. Discuss with a Partner:
What Did You Find Most
Surprising in the Video
“Did You Know”?
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13. Up

14. “If change is
happening on the
outside faster than
on the inside the
end is in sight.”
-Jack Welch
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15. Evidence Will Out...
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16. Up

17. Up

18. Up

19. Up

20. Up

21. People
W
or
Sh k/L s
ift ife ife ce
L n
e
S ci
Acceleration
Business Globalised Technology
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22. Education
Re-Engineering
Global Free
Mobility Agency
Age Gap People End of
Retirement
Un-Bell Curve W Speed & Size
or
Sh k/L s
ift ife ife ce
L n
e
Marketing S ci Unbreakable
Megatrend Tech
Acceleration
Business Globalised Technology Cloud
Outrageous
Outsourcing Computing
Coworking CoIT
Virtual Innovation Robots Mobile
Business Imperative Rise Madness
Up

23. Education
Re-Engineering
Global Free
Mobility Agency
Age Gap People End of
Retirement
Un-Bell Curve W Speed & Size
or
Sh k/L s
ift ife ife ce
L n
e
Marketing S ci Unbreakable
Megatrend Tech
Acceleration
Business Globalised Technology Cloud
Outrageous
Outsourcing Computing
Coworking CoIT
Virtual Innovation Robots Mobile
Business Imperative Rise Madness
Up

24. Your mobile phone has
more computing power than
all of NASA in 1969.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/43533334@N07/5153726732

25. How Big is Mobile Today?
7B People in the World
6B Mobile Subscribers
1B 3G/4G Subscribers
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26. Despite Tremendous Ramp So Far,
Smartphone User Adoption Has Huge Upside
Global Smartphone vs. Mobile Phone Subscriptions, Q4:11
7,000 6.1B Mobile Phone
Subscriptions
6,000
5,000
Global Subscriptions (MM)
4,000
3,000
2,000
953MM
Smartphone
Subscriptions
1,000
0
Smartphone Mobile Phone
Source: Mobile phone subscriptions per Informa (as of Q4:11), Smartphone subscriptions estimate based on Morgan Stanley Research’s
estimated smartphone user as % of total mobile user at the end of 2011 (16%).
Note: While there are 1B global 3G subscribers as of Q4:11, not all of them were smartphone users. One user may have multiple mobile 11
subscriptions, therefore actual user #s may be lower than subscriber #s.
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27. Apple iPhone + iTouch + iPad Ramp –
The Likes of Which We Haven’t Seen Before
iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users
First 20 Quarters Since Launch
120
~120MM+
Mobile Internet
100 iPhone + iTouch + iPad
Launched 6/07
Desktop Internet
80
Subscribers (MM)
Netscape*
Launched 12/94
60
Mobile Internet
~32MM NTT docomo i-mode
40 Launched 6/99
Desktop Internet
20 ~27MM
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
~9MM
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch
iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape
Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates
~65MM+ netbooks have shipped in first 11 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research. 8
Data as of CQ3:10.

28. 380M
Mobile Internet Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did –
Apple Leading Charge
iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users
First 20 Quarters Since Launch
100
~85MM
Mobile Internet Desktop Internet
80
iPhone + iTouch Netscape*
Launched 6/07 Launched 12/94
Subscribers (MM)
60
Mobile Internet
~31MM NTT docomo i-mode
40
Launched 6/99
~18MM Desktop Internet
20
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
~8MM
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch
iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape
Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates
~50MM netbooks have shipped in first 10 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research. 7
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29. 380M
Mobile Internet Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did –
Apple Leading Charge
iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users
First 20 Quarters Since Launch
100
~85MM
Mobile Internet Desktop Internet
80
iPhone + iTouch Netscape*
Launched 6/07 Launched 12/94
Subscribers (MM)
60
Mobile Internet
~31MM NTT docomo i-mode
40
Launched 6/99
~18MM Desktop Internet
20
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
~8MM
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch
iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape
Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates
~50MM netbooks have shipped in first 10 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research. 7
Up

30. 468M
Mobile Internet Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did –
Apple Leading Charge
iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users
First 20 Quarters Since Launch
100
~85MM
Mobile Internet Desktop Internet
80
iPhone + iTouch Netscape*
Launched 6/07 Launched 12/94
Subscribers (MM)
60
Mobile Internet
~31MM NTT docomo i-mode
40
Launched 6/99
~18MM Desktop Internet
20
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
~8MM
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch
iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape
Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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~50MM netbooks have shipped in first 10 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research. 7

31. iPods Changed Media Industry iPhones Ramped Even
Faster iPad Growth (3x iPhone) Leaves “Siblings” in Dust
First 8 Quarters Cumulative Unit Shipments, iPod vs. iPhone vs. iPad
1,400
70,000
iPad
iPad
iPad iPhone
iPhone
iPhone iPod
iPod
iPod
20,000
1,200
60,000
Global Unit Shipments (000)
Global Unit Shipments (000)
1,000
50,000
15,000
800
40,000
10,000
600
30,000
400
20,000
5,000
200
10,000
000
000 1
11 2
22 3
33 4
44 5
55 6
6 7
7 8
8
Quarters After Launch
Quarters After Launch
Quarters After Launch
Source: Apple, as of CQ1:12 (8 quarters post iPad launch). 9
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34. Up

35. bit.ly/AppStoreMedRoom
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36. Security Metering
Access
Control
Money
Body
Engines

37. Partner Questions:
What’s your favorite smartphone app
and why?
Do you have a mobile strategy at
your organisation?
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38. People
W
or
Sh k/L s
ift ife ife ce
L n
e
S ci
Acceleration
Business Globalised Technology
Up

39. Education
Re-Engineering
Global Free
Mobility Agency
Age Gap People End of
Retirement
Un-Bell Curve W Speed & Size
or
Sh k/L s
ift ife ife ce
L n
e
Marketing S ci Unbreakable
Megatrend Tech
Acceleration
Business Globalised Technology Cloud
Outrageous
Outsourcing Computing
Coworking CoIT
Virtual Innovation Robots Mobile
Business Imperative Rise Madness
Up

40. Juan Enriquez
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41. Juan Enriquez
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42. Up

43. Up

44. Up

45. 3D Printed Organs
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46. Education
Re-Engineering
Global Free
Mobility Agency
Age Gap People End of
Retirement
Un-Bell Curve W Speed & Size
or
Sh k/L s
ift ife ife ce
L n
e
Marketing S ci Unbreakable
Megatrend Tech
Acceleration
Business Globalised Technology Cloud
Outrageous
Outsourcing Computing
Coworking CoIT
Virtual Innovation Robots Mobile
Business Imperative Rise Madness
Up

47. South Korean Kids Get Robot Teachers
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48. Robotic Surgery Has Doubled in 5 Yrs
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50. Download Craig’s eBook:
QR Scan or  is.gd/think
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51. Know First • Be First • Profit First
Craig Rispin
Business Futurist & Innovation Expert
www.FutureTrendsGroup.com
craig@futuretrendsgroup.com
Up