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CraigRispinCSP
People
Business Technology
Life Sciences
W
ork/Life Shift
Acceleration
Youth
Unemployed
Education
Re-Engineering
Global
Mobility
Free
Agency
End of
Retirement
Emerging Models
Outrageous
Outsourcing
Marketing
Megatrend
Innovation
Imperative
Speed & Size
Cloud
Computing
Robots
Rise
Coworking &
Collaboration
Mobile
Madness
Internet of
Things
Big Data
The Megatrend of M2M
The Internet of Things
a View of 2018
And This Session
is Gamified...
To Look Forward,
We Must Look Back
When Chris Anderson
Became Editor of Wired
Magazine...
Reviewing All Predictions in Wired:
Reviewing All Predictions in Wired:
A. Most Predictions Were Wrong
Reviewing All Predictions in Wired:
A. Most Predictions Were Wrong
B. Most Predictions Were Right
Reviewing All Predictions in Wired:
A. Most Predictions Were Wrong
B. Most Predictions Were Right
C. All Predictions Were Right, and
Time Estimates Were Too Long
Reviewing All Predictions in Wired:
The First Two Decades
of the Internet Has
Been Breathtaking...
The Internet Has Truly
Changed Our Lives...
Let’s Find Out Just
How Much...
Ask Your Learning Partner:
How the Internet Has Changed
Your Business or Life?
But the Next Internet is
Already Among Us...
The Internet of Things:
50 Billion Devices
by 2020?
MWC IoT: 50 Billion Is Only the Beginning!
What Year Did the
Number of Devices on
the Internet Exceeded
Number of People?
2007
And Adafruit Can Help
You with Your Project
People
Business Technology
Life Sciences
W
ork/Life Shift
Acceleration
Youth
Unemployed
Education
Re-Engineering
Global
Mobility
Free
Agency
End of
Retirement
Emerging Models
Outrageous
Outsourcing
Marketing
Megatrend
Innovation
Imperative
Speed & Size
Cloud
Computing
Robots
Rise
Coworking &
Collaboration
Mobile
Madness
Security
Scare
Big Data
How Big is Mobile Today?
How Big is Mobile Today?
7B People in the World
How Big is Mobile Today?
7B People in the World
6.8B Mobile Subscribers
How Big is Mobile Today?
7B People in the World
6.8B Mobile Subscribers
1.5B 3G/LTE Subscribers
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch
Subscribers(MM)
iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape
8
iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users
First 20 Quarters Since Launch
Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates
~65MM+ netbooks have shipped in first 11 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research.
Desktop Internet
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
Mobile Internet
NTT docomo i-mode
Launched 6/99
Mobile Internet
iPhone + iTouch + iPad
Launched 6/07
~120MM+
~32MM
~9MM
Desktop Internet
Netscape*
Launched 12/94
~27MM
Apple iPhone + iTouch + iPad Ramp –
The Likes of Which We Haven’t Seen Before
20
40
60
80
100
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch
Subscribers(MM)
iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape
7
iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users
First 20 Quarters Since Launch
Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates
~50MM netbooks have shipped in first 10 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research.
Desktop Internet
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
Mobile Internet
NTT docomo i-mode
Launched 6/99
Mobile Internet
iPhone + iTouch
Launched 6/07
~85MM
~31MM
~8MM
Desktop Internet
Netscape*
Launched 12/94
~18MM
Mobile Internet Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did –
Apple Leading Charge
380M
20
40
60
80
100
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch
Subscribers(MM)
iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape
7
iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users
First 20 Quarters Since Launch
Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates
~50MM netbooks have shipped in first 10 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research.
Desktop Internet
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
Mobile Internet
NTT docomo i-mode
Launched 6/99
Mobile Internet
iPhone + iTouch
Launched 6/07
~85MM
~31MM
~8MM
Desktop Internet
Netscape*
Launched 12/94
~18MM
Mobile Internet Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did –
Apple Leading Charge
380M
20
40
60
80
100
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch
Subscribers(MM)
iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape
7
iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users
First 20 Quarters Since Launch
Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates
~50MM netbooks have shipped in first 10 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research.
Desktop Internet
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
Mobile Internet
NTT docomo i-mode
Launched 6/99
Mobile Internet
iPhone + iTouch
Launched 6/07
~85MM
~31MM
~8MM
Desktop Internet
Netscape*
Launched 12/94
~18MM
Mobile Internet Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did –
Apple Leading Charge
468M
1.8 Billion Mobiles
Sold in 2013
Smartphone Sales
Finally Beat Out
Feature Phone Sales
Globally
Tablet Shipments =
Surpassed Desktop PCs & Notebooks in Q4:12, < 3 Years from Intro
Global PC (Desktop / Notebook) and Tablet Shipments by Quarter
Q1:95 – Q1:13
Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks.
Source: Katy Huberty, Ehud Gelblum, Morgan Stanley Research. Gartner. Data as of 4/13.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1:95 Q1:97 Q1:99 Q1:01 Q1:03 Q1:05 Q1:07 Q1:09 Q1:11 Q1:13
GlobalUnitsShipped(MMs)
Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Tablets
45
This is Leading Many
Companies to Have a
‘Mobile First’ Policy...
Do You Have a
Mobile First Policy
in Your Organisation?
Text: Yes or No
But Mobile is
Insignificant Compared
to What’s Coming...
V2V (M2M):
Connected Cars
V2V: Will Be Mandated
in All New Vehicles by
2017
60 Million Cars/Year Globally
More Cars in China than EU
Life Sciences:
Connected Health
Personal Health Monitoring
Patient Monitoring Device...
Hospital of the Future
Millimetre-Scale Computer
How Many Pills are
Taken Per Person
Per Day in Australia?
Text: Your Estimate
2.7 Pills/Day/Person
59,400,000 Pills/Day
21,681,000,000/Year
Could Most Pills Be
M2M’s by 2018?
People
Business Technology
Life Sciences
W
ork/Life Shift
Acceleration
Youth
Unemployed
Education
Re-Engineering
Global
Mobility
Free
Agency
End of
Retirement
Emerging Models
Outrageous
Outsourcing
Marketing
Megatrend
Innovation
Imperative
Speed & Size
Cloud
Computing
Robots
Rise
Coworking &
Collaboration
Mobile
Madness
Internet of
Things
Big Data
CraigRispinCSP

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The Megatrend of M2M - a View of the Year 2018 - Craig Rispin Keynote at - Connect 2014 - 14 March 2014

  • 1.
  • 3.
  • 4. People Business Technology Life Sciences W ork/Life Shift Acceleration Youth Unemployed Education Re-Engineering Global Mobility Free Agency End of Retirement Emerging Models Outrageous Outsourcing Marketing Megatrend Innovation Imperative Speed & Size Cloud Computing Robots Rise Coworking & Collaboration Mobile Madness Internet of Things Big Data
  • 5. The Megatrend of M2M The Internet of Things a View of 2018
  • 6. And This Session is Gamified...
  • 7. To Look Forward, We Must Look Back
  • 8. When Chris Anderson Became Editor of Wired Magazine...
  • 10. Reviewing All Predictions in Wired: A. Most Predictions Were Wrong
  • 11. Reviewing All Predictions in Wired: A. Most Predictions Were Wrong B. Most Predictions Were Right
  • 12. Reviewing All Predictions in Wired: A. Most Predictions Were Wrong B. Most Predictions Were Right C. All Predictions Were Right, and Time Estimates Were Too Long
  • 14.
  • 15. The First Two Decades of the Internet Has Been Breathtaking...
  • 16. The Internet Has Truly Changed Our Lives...
  • 17. Let’s Find Out Just How Much...
  • 18. Ask Your Learning Partner: How the Internet Has Changed Your Business or Life?
  • 19.
  • 20. But the Next Internet is Already Among Us...
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. The Internet of Things: 50 Billion Devices by 2020?
  • 24. MWC IoT: 50 Billion Is Only the Beginning!
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28. What Year Did the Number of Devices on the Internet Exceeded Number of People?
  • 29.
  • 30. 2007
  • 31. And Adafruit Can Help You with Your Project
  • 32.
  • 33. People Business Technology Life Sciences W ork/Life Shift Acceleration Youth Unemployed Education Re-Engineering Global Mobility Free Agency End of Retirement Emerging Models Outrageous Outsourcing Marketing Megatrend Innovation Imperative Speed & Size Cloud Computing Robots Rise Coworking & Collaboration Mobile Madness Security Scare Big Data
  • 34. How Big is Mobile Today?
  • 35. How Big is Mobile Today? 7B People in the World
  • 36. How Big is Mobile Today? 7B People in the World 6.8B Mobile Subscribers
  • 37. How Big is Mobile Today? 7B People in the World 6.8B Mobile Subscribers 1.5B 3G/LTE Subscribers
  • 38. 20 40 60 80 100 120 Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19 Quarters Since Launch Subscribers(MM) iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape 8 iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users First 20 Quarters Since Launch Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~65MM+ netbooks have shipped in first 11 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research. Desktop Internet AOL* v 2.0 Launched 9/94 Mobile Internet NTT docomo i-mode Launched 6/99 Mobile Internet iPhone + iTouch + iPad Launched 6/07 ~120MM+ ~32MM ~9MM Desktop Internet Netscape* Launched 12/94 ~27MM Apple iPhone + iTouch + iPad Ramp – The Likes of Which We Haven’t Seen Before
  • 39. 20 40 60 80 100 Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19 Quarters Since Launch Subscribers(MM) iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape 7 iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users First 20 Quarters Since Launch Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~50MM netbooks have shipped in first 10 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research. Desktop Internet AOL* v 2.0 Launched 9/94 Mobile Internet NTT docomo i-mode Launched 6/99 Mobile Internet iPhone + iTouch Launched 6/07 ~85MM ~31MM ~8MM Desktop Internet Netscape* Launched 12/94 ~18MM Mobile Internet Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did – Apple Leading Charge 380M
  • 40. 20 40 60 80 100 Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19 Quarters Since Launch Subscribers(MM) iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape 7 iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users First 20 Quarters Since Launch Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~50MM netbooks have shipped in first 10 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research. Desktop Internet AOL* v 2.0 Launched 9/94 Mobile Internet NTT docomo i-mode Launched 6/99 Mobile Internet iPhone + iTouch Launched 6/07 ~85MM ~31MM ~8MM Desktop Internet Netscape* Launched 12/94 ~18MM Mobile Internet Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did – Apple Leading Charge 380M
  • 41. 20 40 60 80 100 Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19 Quarters Since Launch Subscribers(MM) iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape 7 iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users First 20 Quarters Since Launch Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~50MM netbooks have shipped in first 10 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research. Desktop Internet AOL* v 2.0 Launched 9/94 Mobile Internet NTT docomo i-mode Launched 6/99 Mobile Internet iPhone + iTouch Launched 6/07 ~85MM ~31MM ~8MM Desktop Internet Netscape* Launched 12/94 ~18MM Mobile Internet Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did – Apple Leading Charge 468M
  • 43. Smartphone Sales Finally Beat Out Feature Phone Sales Globally
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46. Tablet Shipments = Surpassed Desktop PCs & Notebooks in Q4:12, < 3 Years from Intro Global PC (Desktop / Notebook) and Tablet Shipments by Quarter Q1:95 – Q1:13 Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks. Source: Katy Huberty, Ehud Gelblum, Morgan Stanley Research. Gartner. Data as of 4/13. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Q1:95 Q1:97 Q1:99 Q1:01 Q1:03 Q1:05 Q1:07 Q1:09 Q1:11 Q1:13 GlobalUnitsShipped(MMs) Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Tablets 45
  • 47.
  • 48. This is Leading Many Companies to Have a ‘Mobile First’ Policy...
  • 49. Do You Have a Mobile First Policy in Your Organisation? Text: Yes or No
  • 50. But Mobile is Insignificant Compared to What’s Coming...
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55. V2V: Will Be Mandated in All New Vehicles by 2017
  • 56.
  • 57.
  • 58.
  • 59.
  • 60. 60 Million Cars/Year Globally More Cars in China than EU
  • 64. Hospital of the Future
  • 66.
  • 67.
  • 68.
  • 69. How Many Pills are Taken Per Person Per Day in Australia? Text: Your Estimate
  • 71. Could Most Pills Be M2M’s by 2018?
  • 72. People Business Technology Life Sciences W ork/Life Shift Acceleration Youth Unemployed Education Re-Engineering Global Mobility Free Agency End of Retirement Emerging Models Outrageous Outsourcing Marketing Megatrend Innovation Imperative Speed & Size Cloud Computing Robots Rise Coworking & Collaboration Mobile Madness Internet of Things Big Data