Australian Self-Medication Keynote Craig Rispin 13 Nov '12

Discuss with a Partner:

What Did You Find Most
Surprising in the Video
“Did You Know”?

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“If change is
happening on the
outside faster than
on the inside the
end is in sight.”
-Jack Welch

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Education
Re-Engineering

Global Free
Mobility Agency

Age Gap People End of
Retirement

Transparency W Speed & Size
or
Sh k/L s
ift ife ife ce
L n
e
Marketing S ci Unbreakable
Megatrend Tech
Acceleration
Business Globalised Technology Cloud
Outrageous
Outsourcing Computing

Coworking CoIT
Virtual Innovation Robots Mobile
Business Imperative Rise Madness

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Cray-1 US$8 million

Speed & Size

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Cray-1 US$8 million
80 MegaFLOPS

Speed & Size

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Sony
PlayStation 3

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Sony
PlayStation 3
US$400

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Sony
PlayStation 3
US$400
218 GigaFLOPS

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Millimetre-Scale Computer

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Edible Chip - Proteus Biomedical

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Partner Interviews:

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Partner Interviews:
Do you believe in this vision of future
technology?

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Partner Interviews:
technology?
If so, why? If not, why not?

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Partner Interviews:
technology?
If so, why? If not, why not?
What impacts do you think it might
have on organisations or on society in
the future?

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Education
Re-Engineering

Global Free
Mobility Agency

Age Gap People End of
Retirement

Un-Bell Curve W Speed & Size
or
Sh k/L s
ift ife ife ce
L n
e
Megatrend Tech
Acceleration
Outrageous

Coworking CoIT

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Age Gap
Big Changes Ahead

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AUSTRALIA’S GENERATIONAL PROFILE
FERTILITY RATES (BABIES PER WOMAN) LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH MEDIAN AGE OF PARENTS (NEW BIRTHS) MEDIAN AGE FIRST MARRIAGE
Australia 1971: 3.0 Today: 1.9 1982: Male - 72.1 Female - 78.8 1982: Fathers - 30.0 Mothers - 26.9 1984: Male - 24.8 Female - 22.3
Current OECD Avg: 1.7 Current world Avg: 2.5 Today: Male - 79.4 Female - 83.9 Today: Fathers - 33.1 Mothers - 30.7 Today: Male - 30.1 Female - 27.7

TECHNOLOGY TIMELINE
1923: First radio broadcast 1956: First Australian 1980: Pacman 1982: 1991: 1998: 2006: Facebook 2010: Google puts Pacman 2010: 2012:
in Australia. Radio takes television broadcast. launched & as a Commodore WWW is launched. 143 million opens to the public. game on its logo to celeb- iPad launched - 800 million
38 years to reach a global TV takes 13 years to computer game 64 launched - Takes 4 years to internet Takes 12 months rate Pacman’s 30th sells 1 million active
audience of 50 million reach a global audi- sells 7 million sells 1 million get 50 million users to get 50 million anniversary. 126 million units in 4 weeks Facebook
ence of 50 million copies units in 4 years people online users people play it in 1 day accounts

POPULATION BY
YEAR OF BIRTH

350 000

300 000 The “echo boom” - record
Highest 1971 birth numbers reflected the fertility birth
birth rate ever reach 276,361 - years of the Boomers numbers

250 000 recorded - 1961 not beaten until 2007 Lowest birth rate ever
(3.5 per woman) recorded in 2001 (1.7)

Generation Alpha
200 000
Post WWII
baby boom

Generation Y
Generation X

Generation Z
150 000
War Boomers
babies
Builders

100 000
Born before 1946 Born 1946-1964 Born 1965-1979 Born 1980-1994 Born 1995-2009
2.99 million 5.59 million 4.81 million 4.83 million 4.60 million
50 000 % of pop: 13% % of pop: 23% % of pop: 21% % of pop: 21% % of pop: 20%
% of the workforce % of the workforce % of the workforce % of the workforce % of the workforce
Today: 2% // 2020: 0% Today: 36% // 2020: 17% Today: 44% // 2020: 36% Today: 18% // 2020: 35% Today: 0% // 2020: 12%

’35 ’45 ’55 ’65 ’75 ’85 ’95 ’05
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Australian
Prime Ministers: Scul Lyons Menz Curtin Chifley Menzies Holt Gorton McM Whit Fraser Hawke Keating Howard Rudd Gillard
Key: - Liberal / National - Labor
United States
Presidents: Hoover Roosevelt Truman Eisenhower JFK Johnson Nixon Ford Carter Reagan GH Bush Clinton GW Bush Obama
Key: - Republican - Democrat
Australian
Population: 6.5 million 7 million 10 million 13 million 16 million 19 million 23 mil
World
Population: 2 billion 3 billion 4 billion 5 billion 6 billion 7 billion

© Copyright 2012 McCrindle Research Pty. Ltd. Source: McCrindle Research, ABS.
McCrindle Research Pty. Ltd. Suite A39, Level 4 Phone: +61 2 8824 3422
ABN: 99 105 510 772 24-32 Lexington Drive Fax: +61 2 8824 3566
www.mccrindle.com.au Bella Vista NSW 2153 info@mccrindle.com.au

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Your mobile phone has
more computing power than
all of NASA in 1969.

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/43533334@N07/5153726732

How Big is Mobile Today?

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7B People in the World

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6B Mobile Subscribers

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6B Mobile Subscribers

1B 3G/4G Subscribers
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Despite Tremendous Ramp So Far,
Smartphone User Adoption Has Huge Upside
Global Smartphone vs. Mobile Phone Subscriptions, Q4:11
7,000 6.1B Mobile Phone
Subscriptions
6,000

5,000
Global Subscriptions (MM)

4,000

3,000

2,000
953MM
Smartphone
Subscriptions
1,000

0
Smartphone Mobile Phone

Source: Mobile phone subscriptions per Informa (as of Q4:11), Smartphone subscriptions estimate based on Morgan Stanley Research’s
estimated smartphone user as % of total mobile user at the end of 2011 (16%).
Note: While there are 1B global 3G subscribers as of Q4:11, not all of them were smartphone users. One user may have multiple mobile 11
subscriptions, therefore actual user #s may be lower than subscriber #s.

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Apple iPhone + iTouch + iPad Ramp –
The Likes of Which We Haven’t Seen Before
iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape Users
First 20 Quarters Since Launch
120
~120MM+
Mobile Internet
100 iPhone + iTouch + iPad
Launched 6/07
Desktop Internet
80
Subscribers (MM)

Netscape*
Launched 12/94
60
Mobile Internet
~32MM NTT docomo i-mode
40 Launched 6/99

Desktop Internet
20 ~27MM
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
~9MM

Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch
iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape
Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates
~65MM+ netbooks have shipped in first 11 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research. 8
Data as of CQ3:10.

380M

Mobile Internet Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did –
Apple Leading Charge
100

~85MM
Mobile Internet Desktop Internet
80
iPhone + iTouch Netscape*
Launched 6/07 Launched 12/94
Subscribers (MM)

60
Mobile Internet
40
Launched 6/99

~18MM Desktop Internet
20
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
~8MM

Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
~50MM netbooks have shipped in first 10 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research. 7

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468M

Mobile Internet Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did –
Apple Leading Charge
100

~85MM
Mobile Internet Desktop Internet
80
iPhone + iTouch Netscape*
Launched 6/07 Launched 12/94
Subscribers (MM)

60
Mobile Internet
40
Launched 6/99

~18MM Desktop Internet
20
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
~8MM

Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19

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~50MM netbooks have shipped in first 10 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research. 7

iPods Changed Media Industry iPhones Ramped Even
Faster iPad Growth (3x iPhone) Leaves “Siblings” in Dust
First 8 Quarters Cumulative Unit Shipments, iPod vs. iPhone vs. iPad

1,400
70,000
iPad
iPad
iPad iPhone
iPhone
iPhone iPod
iPod
iPod
20,000
1,200
60,000
Global Unit Shipments (000)
Global Unit Shipments (000)

1,000
50,000
15,000

800
40,000

10,000
600
30,000

400
20,000
5,000

200
10,000

000
000 1
11 2
22 3
33 4
44 5
55 6
6 7
7 8
8
Quarters After Launch

Source: Apple, as of CQ1:12 (8 quarters post iPad launch). 9
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Security Metering

Access

Control

Money
Body
Engines

Partner Questions:

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Partner Questions:
What’s your favorite smartphone App
and why?

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Partner Questions:
and why?
Do you have a mobile strategy at
your organisation?

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Partner Questions:
and why?
Do you have a mobile strategy at
your organisation?
What’s your big idea for an App?

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South Korean Kids Get Robot Teachers

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Robotic Surgery Has Doubled in 5 Yrs

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People

W
or
Sh k/L s
ift ife ife ce
L n
e
S ci

Acceleration
Business Globalised Technology

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Education
Re-Engineering

Global Co-
Mobility Working

Digi-natives People End of
Retirement

Structure Shift W Speed & Size
or
Sh k/L s
ift ife ife ce
L n
e
Megatrend Tech
Acceleration
Outrageous

Coworking CoIT

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Innovation Imperative:
In Times of Massive Change
Innovation Isn’t a Risk
It’s a Requirement

I Asked Jack Welch...

Jack, do you really think foresight and
innovation are required in business?

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I Asked Jack Welch...

Jack, do you really think foresight and
innovation are required in business?

“No, Craig, but survival isn’t either...”

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Faculty Profiles | Search | Academic Areas | Centers | Awards & Honors

James G March
Jack Steele Parker Professor of International Contact
Management, Emeritus Organizational Behavior

(650) 353-0587

MARCH@stanford.edu

James March studies organizations. His recent research has focused on understanding risk taking, decision making,
learning, and leadership in organizations such as business firms, public bureaucracies, and educational institutions.

James G. March is Professor Emeritus at Stanford University, where he has been on the faculty since 1970. He holds
appointments in the Schools of Business and Education and in the Departments of Political Science and Sociology.
Before that, he was on the faculty of the University of California, Irvine, and the Carnegie Institute of Technology. He
received his B.A. degree from the University of Wisconsin and his M.A. and Ph.D. from Yale University. He is the father
of four children and (depending on how you count them) somewhere between five and 16 grandchildren.

Exploitation vs Exploration

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Exploitation:

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Exploitation:
Ongoing execution of learned successful
behaviours - business as usual.

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Exploitation:
Exploration:

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Exploitation:
Exploration:
Search for new ideas and behaviours to
revitalise business.

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12
Reaching Global Executives:

Megatrends in B2B Marketing

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1
MEGATREND ONE
The shift to 360º thought leadership

A
sked to rate the value of various marketing user communities) and passive (print) promotional
activities on a five-point scale, meetings/ channels.
conferences and research/surveys top the list. The way forward is clearly a heavier reliance on
Today B2B providers view a broad array of creating a programme of thought leadership that
sponsored programmes, such as conferences and takes advantage of multiple-entry-point messaging.
white papers, as a valuable means of capturing
attention and persuading decision makers. 1. How important are the following non-traditional categories
of marketing activity to your organisation?
This is not to say that traditional advertising (Mean score out of 5)
has lost its appeal. Instead, the conclusion is that Meetings/conferences
3.85
organisations seeking to promote their businesses
Research/surveys
are increasingly relying on a range of channels, 3.76
White papers, executive summaries, articles
including print. 3.61
Specifically, these cross-channel programmes Website advertising and sponsorship
3.40
engage, inform and motivate target markets across Rankings, economic analysis and original content
a broad range of both active (meetings, webcasts, 3.25
Webcasts, podcasts and interactive forums
3.01
Source: 2006 sponsors survey (134 respondents)

Thought Leadership Deﬁned
• The term was ﬁrst coined in 1994, by Joel Kurtzman,
editor-in-chief of the magazine, Strategy+Business


• “Thought leaders are individuals or organisations
that are recognised by peers, customers and industry
experts as someone who deeply understand the
business they are in, the needs of their customers,
and the broader marketplace in which they operate.”


• “Thought leaders are individuals or organisations
that are recognised by peers, customers and industry
experts as someone who deeply understand the
business they are in, the needs of their customers,
and the broader marketplace in which they operate.”

• “Thought leaders have a distinctively original idea,
a unique point of view or an insight.”

This is
Where
Thought
Leaders
Operate

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9'of'the'top'11'effective'ways'of'getting'a'
of'involve'Thought'
Leadership'Marketing
How would you rate the effectiveness of the following marketing vehicles in getting your attention?
Mean Rating (N~344)

Speech or presentation at a conference or trade show 3.7
Case studies describing successful customer solution implementations 3.7
Article in the business or trade press 3.4
Invitation to a Webinar, seminar, or workshop 3.4
Analyst firm recommendation (such as Gartner/IDC/Forrester) 3.3
Search engine hits when doing research or surfing the Web 3.2
White paper offered on the Internet 3.1
Electronic newsletter from the service firm 2.9
Conference sponsorship 2.8
Direct mail brochure 2.5
Email from a sales representative from the service firm 2.3
Phone call from a sales representative from the service firm 2.3
TV or print advertisement 2.3
Vendor's blog 2.3
Online advertisement 2.2
Sporting or cultural event sponsorship 2.0
Source: ITSMA, How Customers Choose Study, North Ameri

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are building and leading successful, growing Find out more. registration of interest form, or contact your
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Home 2011 program 2010 National winners 2010 National finalists Judges Champions Previous winners Sponsors Contact

Community of interest

To receive regular updates on the
2010 program, join the
Ernst & Young Entrepreneur Of

75%
The Year community of interest.

Monthly newsletters

Read previous issues of our
monthly Entrepreneur Of The Year
Connections newsletter.

Select a Newsletter

About Entrepreneur Of The Year Igniting innovation Do you know an outstanding
entrepreneur? Exceptional – the 2011
Today, more than ever, the entrepreneurial
Ernst & Young Entrepreneur Of The Year is the spirit is alive in the corporate world. What can Ernst & Young Entrepreneur Of
Nominate them now for the 2011 Ernst &
first and only truly global award of its kind, your organisation do to cultivate this spirit of The Year magazine
Young Entrepreneur Of The Year awards. Read
Entrepreneur Of The Year celebrates those who innovation and retain “intrapreneurial” thinkers?
our nomination guide and complete our
are building and leading successful, growing Find out more. registration of interest form, or contact your
and dynamic businesses, recognising them
regional Entrepreneur Of The Year program
through regional, national and global awards manager.
programs in more than 140 cities in 50
countries. Find out more at ey.com/au/eoy

This year’s magazine is filled with
thought provoking and inspirational
stories, including profiles of our
2010 Entrepreneur Of The Year
national winners.

Read the Exceptional magazine e-
book.
Up

“Foresight and
innovation are
the only two things
that can set you
PHOTOGRAPHER: DUNCAN COLE
SOURCE: WWW.SAACHIKEVIN.COM

apart from your
competition today.”
Kevin Roberts, CEO of Saatchi & Saatchi

5

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Australian Self-Medication Keynote Craig Rispin 13 Nov '12

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