Strategy foresight presentation for ICLcity 2011 city university
1. Demonstration of Human Computer Interaction of Morphological Analysis for Design InnovationNasir Hussain City University London – Innovation, Creativity and Leadership, 13 June 2011
2. You can run the world for two days Advanced communication and life-support Armoured plating – leakproof petrol tank Defence countermeasures – tear gas, smoke grenades..
4. What is Morphological Analysis ? A generalised problem-structuring method, using Extended Typology Analysis, for structuring and analyzing complex problem fields which : - Are inherently non-quantifiable - Contain non-resolvable uncertainties - Cannot be causally modelled or simulated - Require a judgemental approach
5. Developed by Fritz Zwicky for tackling complex, multi-dimensional socio-technical design problems Fritz Zwicky (1898 - 1974) Professor of Astronomy, Caltech (1942-68) Co-founder Aerojet Engineering Corporation Developed Morphological Analysis as a problem-structuring method to address genuine uncertainty and stress test boundary conditions, resulting in discovery of: Dark matter (1934) Triple hypothesis - supernova, neutron stars, and cosmic rays (1934) Gravitational lensing (1937)
6. A typology interrelates simple terms, concepts and ideas in order to explore the more complex concepts that arise from compounding these simple discrete attributes. Antigen A + A - A + B Antigen B - B 2-D Morphological Table
7. Visually, a typology uses the dimensions of a physical space to represent its dimensions - however this ends at three 3-D Morphological Table Complex design problems have more than 3 dimensions – where do we place the Nth dimension and interrelate the variables?
8. Demonstration of CARMA® Inputs Outputs The above example depicts 186,624 formal combinations – with facilitation and proprietary software this can reduced by over 99%
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10. The “breaking down”, or deconstruction, of the problem (or mess) into the variables requires strong independent facilitation
11. The “association” is in fact the Cross Consistency Analysis: every pair of cells (i.e. conditions or states) must be compatible i.e. “form follows function” (Louis Sullivan, 1896) *Redesigning the Future, Russell Ackoff (1974)
17. Strategy Foresight LLP and partners have completed 125+ projects across the globe Design of military boots (Sweden) Alternative organisational structures for government research organisations (ND) Predicting and mitigating risks to corporate reputation (UK)* Future international organisational structure for FMCG (Sweden)* Governance of scientific and technological development (US) Improving quality and quantity of investment deal flow (City University)* * current projects
19. Wicked problems are multi-faceted, multi-dimensional problems that reside within organisations Not easily quantifiable – little data, uncertain data, incomplete data Continually developing and mutating Full of ambiguities, contradictions and vicious circles Very strongly stakeholder oriented with strong political, moral and professional issues Reactive: the problem fights back ‘Wicked problems’ H. Rittel & M. Webber (1973) Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning Policy Sciences, 4: 155-169
24. Futures researchStretch Capture Shape Select Prioritise Designing specialist workshop teams Using processes developed in the military
25. Strategy Foresight is not a consulting firm Facilitators who work with very complex issues aka ‘wicked problems’ Model unintended consequences of policy design, board decisions etc. Proprietary software – models developed in real time with the clients No army of researchers – the client’s workshop team are the specialists
26. …..and provide clients with novel software to construct their own scenarios and strategy alternatives Input and outputs interchangeable - manipulate both cause and effect Ability to freeze and compare scenarios and strategy alternatives Reducing decision alternatives does not require re-developing entire model Easily updatable: visual, real time systematic group exploration for collective creativity and decision-making Speed, efficiency and cost of facilitation and model development is a fraction of traditional consultancies
27. Strategy foresight engages clients and stakeholders with their complex challenges – aka ‘Wicked Problems’ Wicked problem (Rittel et al 1973) Compare a Tame Problem Not easily quantifiable due to uncertain or incomplete information Continually developing and mutating Full of ambiguities, contradictions and circular causality Stakeholder oriented with strong political, moral & professional issues Reactive: the problem fights back Has a relatively well-defined and stable problem statement Has a definite stopping point i.e. we know when the solution is reached Binary solutions: objectively evaluated as being right or wrong Has solutions which can be tried and abandoned