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IWMI
                          NBI
                        ENTRO
                          ILRI
                   WORLD FISH CENTER

                          Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Outline

     1.     Background
     2.     WP1 Poverty analysis
     3.     WP2: Assessment of Water Resources
     4.     WP3 Assessment of Water productivity
     5.     WP4 Institutional analysis
     6.     WP5 Intervention analysis
     7.     Conclusions


                                  Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
1. Background assessment of the basin


                  Nile BFP Project Objective:
                  To identify high potential water      management
             interventions to reduce        poverty and increase
             water productivity




                             Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Basin is highly variable




The Basin is highly variable, theSupported by: CPWF
                                  river is very important, various interventions
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Key ideas:

 • Access to water is related to poverty, not availability
   – need to differentiate access and availability
 • Water productivity can be a key driver of wealth
   generation
 • Issues are different between Egypt and Northern part
   of Sudan and the rest of the basin – access to water,
   productivity, institutions, etc.
 • In US Basin countries water access is limited, and
   water productivity low – key to poverty reduction.


                            Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Project premise:


      • These are missed opportunities because
        agriculture water management for
        rainfed, wetland, livestock, fisheries,
        aquaculture tend to fall in a void.

      • There are inadequate institutional
        arrangements to support this.


                            Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Project premise:

 • There are numerous opportunities to
   manage water better for agriculture in order to
   improve productivity, food security and livelihoods.
 • While most of the focus is on river water, we start
   with rainfall to look for opportunities outside of
   the river.
 • Significant gains can be made through improving
   rainfed production systems through better
   agricultural water management
 • Livestock, fisheries, aquaculture, wetlands
   provide opportunities, but are generally absent in
   Nile discourse.
                            Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Baseline Conditions
                        • High poverty and low development              0.90                                                                                                                                                              Egypt
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sudan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Kenya
                        • High Rainfall Poor Water Distribution-high loss                                                                                                                                                                 Uganda




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Hum developm index
                                                                        0.78                                                                                                                                                              Ethiopia
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Tanzania
                          upstream                                                                                                                                                                                                        Rwanda




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ent
                                                                        0.65                                                                                                                                                              average, all countries


                        • Drought & flooding                            0.53


                        • High rainfall variability




                                                                                                                                                                                                         an
                                                                        0.40


                        • High agriculture dependency, slow             0.28


                          transformation                                0.15
                                                                           1972                                                                                                                                                        1978     1984      1990         1996    2002    2008
                        • Despite potential, low water usage                                                                                                                                                                                              Year

                              10000
                                                                                                                            3618
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Agricultural Population in the Nile Basin


                                                                                                                                            Pe rc en tag e o f A g ric u ltu ra l
                                                                                              936        1050    1012
Precipitation (km 3 yr -1 )




                               1000
                                                                            285
                                                                                      402                                                                                           100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1979-1981
                                                                                                                                                      Po p u la tio n               80
                                100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1989-1991
                                                51      45                                                                                                                          60
                                      34                          32                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1999-2001
                                                                                                                                                                                    40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2003
                                 10                                                                                                                                                 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2004
                                                                                                                                                                                     0

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                                                        Eritrea

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                                                                                              Ethiopia



                                                                                                                 Tanzania
                                      Burundi




                                                                                                         Sudan



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                                                                                                                                        Supported by: CPWF                                                                                Countries
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Nile Basin Study Sites:


 Study Sites                  Nile Delta



                                                      Sudan
                                                     Transect

Basin Wide

                                              Sudd
                                                       Ethiopian
                                                       Highlands


                            Cattle Corridor
                            Lake Victoria:
                              Ugandan
                              Highlands
                             Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Case Study Sites




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               L. Ta ng any ik a
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                                                                    #        D isc harge Stations
                                                                     [
                                                                     %       Tow ns
                                                                             Falls
                                                                             Equatorial La ke S ub- Basins
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai                                                        Riv ers                                                                                                Sc a le 1 :4 , 25 0 , 00 0
The Nile Basin
                        Food or environment?




                               Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Irrigation Schemes
                          Country       Irrig. Water         Irrigation      Irrigated
                                        Requirement,         Potential, ha   Area, ha
                                        m3/ha/yr
                          Burundi               13,000             80,000                0
                          DRC                   10,000             10,000                0
                          Egypt                 13,000          4,420,000       3,078,000
                          Eritrea               11,000            150,000          15,124
                          Ethiopia                   9,000      2,220,000          23,160
                          Kenya                      8,500        180,000                0
                          Rwanda                12,500            150,000           2,000
                          Sudan                 14,000          2,750,000       1,935,200
                          Tanzania              11,000             30,000          10,000
                          Uganda                     8,000        202,000           9,120



                                Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Irrigation Schemes, current & future …




                             Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Hydropower Plants,
                                              current & future




                                                    Existing Sites




                                                    New Planned Sites




                        Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Irrigated
 A green-blue view
  Rain = 1745 km3
  Rainfed ET – 190 km3
  Irrigated ET – 67 km3
  Outflow – 10 to 30 km3


Limited options to expand                           Pastoral
irrigation – but gets attention                                         Rainfed

Ample options to upgrade                                     Wetlands
agriculture on rainfed lands –
gets little attention



                            Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Nile Wetlands
  14 Ramsar Sites
  All support agriculture
  and/or fisheries
  All sites listed as
  threatened by these
  activities




     Image of the Sudd

      CPWF, IWMI, WorldFish, ILRI, NBI Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
The Sudd Wetland: Inundation Extent




Image courtesy of JAXA K&C




                                                              Image courtesy of JAXA K&C

                                               ALOS PALSAR L-band SAR
                             RED: June 2008, GREEN: September 2008, BLUE: December 2008
                                       Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Jonglei Canal




                        Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Jonglei Canal
                                             360 km long
                                             7 5 m wide
                                             4 to 8m deep




                        Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Irrigation Schemes
                        Country         Irrig. Water      Irrigation      Irrigated
                                        Requirement,      Potential, ha   Area, ha
                                        m3/ha/yr
                        Burundi                 13,000          80,000                0
                        DRC                     10,000          10,000                0
                        Egypt                   13,000       4,420,000       3,078,000
                        Eritrea                 11,000         150,000          15,124
                        Ethiopia                  9,000      2,220,000          23,160
                        Kenya                     8,500        180,000                0
                        Rwanda                  12,500         150,000           2,000
                        Sudan                   14,000       2,750,000       1,935,200
                        Tanzania                11,000          30,000          10,000
                        Uganda                    8,000        202,000           9,120



                                   Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Irrigation Schemes, current & future …




                             Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
2. WP1 Poverty analysis

  Objectives:

  •      To establish a broad understanding of poverty
         and how it relates to water access in production
         systems in the Nile

  •      To create an overview of poverty and vulnerability
         indicators relevant for the Nile basin

  •      To test links between water, agriculture and
         poverty in the Nile basin


                            Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Research questions:
     • What are the basin characteristics of water and
       poverty and how are they linked?

     • Where are the poor and what are their water related
       problems?

     • What are the water-related risks in crop-livestock
       systems?


                           Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Methods:
     • Literature review of the basin
     • Mapping hotspots of poverty in agricultural systems
          – We use food security, poverty level and poverty inequality to map poverty
            in the rural agricultural production systems of the Nile Basin.
          – Poverty in this case is related to household expenditure on food and non-
            food items.
          – Poverty line is drawn from expenditure required to purchase cost of a
            basket of goods that allows minimum nutrition requirements
     • Mapping vulnerability and water related risks
     • Case study on mapping poverty indicators and water
       access - Uganda



                                     Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Poverty Hotspots:

                                                                                                                           ±
                                                                                                                                                                                          ±




KEY
                                                                                                                           KEY
      Rivers
      Water bodies                                                                                                               Rivers

Poverty level (%)                                                                                                                Poverty hotspots
      <15                                                  KEY                                                                   Water bodies                                                 KEY
      15 - 25
                                                                 Poverty hotspots                                          Mixed rainfed                                                            Rivers
      25 - 35                                                                                                                                                                                       Lakes
                                                           Production system                                                     Cereals
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nile Basin bnd
      35 - 45
                                                                 Agro-Pastoral                                                   Cereals+                                                           Poverty level > 50%
      45 - 55                                                                                                                                                                                       Treecrops
                                                                                                                                 Legumes
      >55                                                        Pastoral                                                                                                                           Rootcrops+

      No data
                                                                                                                                 Legumes+                                                           Treecrops+
                     0   290   580   870   1,160                                 0   145 290   580   870   1,160                                0   145 290   580   870   1,160                     Rootcrops
                                              Kilometers                                                      Kilometers         Mixed rain                                  Kilometers                                   0 130 260   520   780   1,040
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Kilometers




                Poverty in the                                       Poverty in pastoral                                                   Poverty in cereal                                        Poverty in tree and
                   basin                                              and agropastoral                                                       and legume                                              root crop systems
                                                                          systems                                                             systems                                               (banana, cassava &
                                                                                                                                                                                                           cotton)

                                                                                               Supported by: CPWF
 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Mapping vulnerability and water
                  related risks
   • Vulnerability as exposure to risk, ability to cope with
     resulting impacts and the capacity to adapt to new
     conditions
   • Mapped several indicators of bio-physical and social
     risks which results into vulnerability
   • The outcomes of these cluster data were combined as
     severity indices ranging from 4 to 5 levels depending on
     the number of variables used
   • Vulnerability maps indicate levels of exposure to risk.
     These risks ranged from very high risk, high risk,
     moderate risk, low risk and very low risk.


                             Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Vulnerability hotspots:




                                                                                                                                                                                          KEY
                                                             KEY                                                                                                                                River Nile
                                                                                                                           KEY
                                                                   River Nile                                                    River Nile                                                     Water bodies
                                                                                                                                 Water bodies                                             Bio-physical vulnerability
                                                                   Water bodies
                                                                                                                           Bio-physical risk                                                    Very low
KEY                                                          Bio-physical risk                                                   Very low
      River Nile                                                                                                                                                                                Low
                                                                   Very low                                                      Low
      Water bodies
                                                                                                                                 Medium
                                                                                                                                                                                                Medium
Bio-Physical risks                                                 Low
                                                                                                                                 High                                                           High
      Very low                                                     Medium                                                        Very high                                                      Very high
      Low                                                                                                                                       0   145 290   580   870   1,160                                0   145 290    580   870   1,160
                                                                   High                                                                                                      Kilometers                                                      Kilometers
      Medium
      High                                                         Very high      0 145 290   580    870   1,160
                                                                                                              Kilometers
      Very high
                     0 145 290   580   870   1,160
                                                Kilometers
                                                                                Rainfed cereals                                             Rainfed tree crops                                                               Irrigated
                     Agropastoral
 •               hotspots of vulnerability in agricultural systems (biophysical risks estimated
                 from cluster data classification of human and livestock population, market
                 access, internal renewable water resources and area of crop suitability)
 •               population is a key driver of exposure to biophysical vulnerability especially in
                 the intensifying crop livestock systems throughout the highlands and in the
                 central belt of Sudan
                                                                                                    Supported by: CPWF
 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Vulnerability:




                                                               KEY
                                                                     River Nile                 KEY
KEY
                                                                     Water bodies
      River Nile                                                                                      River Nile
                                                               Social risk                                                                                     KEY
      Water bodies                                                                                    Water bodies
                                                                     Very low                                                                                        River_Nile
Social risk                                                                                     Social risks
                                                                                                                                                                     Water bodies
      Very low                                                       Low                              Very Low
                                                                                                                                                               Social risk
      Low                                                            Medium                           Low                                                            Low
      Medium                                                         High                                                                                            Medium
                                                                                                      Medium
      High                                                           Very high                                       0   145 290   580   870   1,160                 High           0   145 290    580   870   1,160
                     0   145 290   580   870   1,160
                                                                                                      High                                        Kilometers                                                      Kilometers
      Very high                                   Kilometers



                   Agropastoral                                               Rainfed cereals               Rainfed tree crops                                                                    Irrigated
 -cluster data vulnerability in agricultural systems (social risks estimatedstunted
  hotspots of
               classification of disease prevalence; malaria HIV/AIDS and
                                                                            from
    growth and malnourished children below age 5)
 - high vulnerability index in agropastoral areas reflects exposure and low
   capacity to cope with disease and food insecurity due to high poverty rates
 - low vulnerability index in irrigated systems reflects better institutional capacity
   to cope with the impacts of disease and food insecurity
 - exposure to disease and food insecurity is widespread in the rainfed agricultural
   systems of the basin except along the lower nile and into the delta region
                                      Supported by: CPWF
 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Water related risks:                                                                                                                                                                         ±




                                                               KEY                                                            KEY
KEY                                                                  River Nile                                                                                                              KEY
                                                                                                                                    River Nile
      River Nile                                                     Water bodies                                                                                                                  River Nile
                                                                                                                                    Water bodies
      Water bodies                                                                                                                                                                                 Water bodies
                                                               Risk due to water
Risks due to water                                                                                                            Risk due to water                                              Risk due to water
                                                                     Very low
      Very low                                                                                                                      Low                                                            Ver Low
                                                                     Low
      Low                                                                                                                           Medium
                                                                     Medium                                                                                                                        Low
      Medium
                                                                     High                                                           High                                                           Medium
      High
                                                                     Very high                                                      Very high      0   145 290   580   870   1,160
                                                                                                                                                                                                   High           0   145 290   580   870   1,160
      Very high                                                                     0   145 290   580   870   1,160                                                                                                                            Kilometers
                     0   145 290   580   870   1,160                                                             Kilometers                                                     Kilometers
                                                  Kilometers

                   Agropastoral                                              Rainfed cereals                                               Rainfed tree crops                                                          Irrigated

- hotspots of water related risks in agricultural systems (hazards estimated from
  cluster data classification of drought index; rainfall variability as CV rain and
  changes in the length of growing period; LGP)
- high risk index in agropastoral and rainfed areas reflects high variation due to
  rainfall and changes in the length of growing period
- low risk index in irrigated systems reflectsCPWF dependency on rainfall
                                   Supported by: less
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Linking water, agriculture and poverty

Where are the poor?                   What are their water related problems?
• in hotspots with high population    • Food insecurity due to high poverty
  densities in the mixed rainfed        rates and dependency on rainfed
  agricultural systems particularly     agriculture
  those supporting cereal-legume
  cropping and banana/cassava         • high risk of rainfall variation and
                                        changes in length of growing season in
  systems                               pastoral and agropastoral systems
• These are concentrated in the       • high exposure to disease and
  highlands of east Africa (Kenya,      malnutrition due to low institutional
  Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and           capacity to cope with the negative
  Ethiopia)                             impacts

• In pastoral and agropastoral   • low risk of rainfall variation and
  systems of the central belt of   changes in length of growing season in
                                   the highlands as well as lake Victoria
  Sudan, northern Uganda and the   sub-basin but widespread poverty still
  lake region of Tanzania          unexplained by good market access
• Low poverty in rice, wheat and
  cotton systems
                                Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
3. WP2: Assessment of Water
                 Availability and Access
                                                                 Egypt

 Objectives:
      – Assess Nile water availability (spatio-
        temporal distribution)
      – Assess water demands and use
      – Assess water accessibility                                               Eritrea

                                                             Sudan


 Methodology                                                                     Ethiopia




      – Rapid Assessment through literature review
      – Identify and fill in gaps of existing knowledge
      – Statistical analysis (trends, frequencies)                 Uganda
                                                          Congo, DRC
                                                                         Kenya
      – Water accounting                                    Rwanda Tanzania
                                                            Burundi




                                  Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Nile Basin Databases
  • Hydrological data base
  • Climate (precipitation)
    database (+ grid data)
  • ET, soil moisture, biomass,
    etc., (WaterWatch)
  • Storage systems database                  Flow station
                                             rainfall station

    (under development)



                              Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Sample results: Data collection
                                                   Nile Database: Monthly river flow: 1910 to 2000
  Discharge Processed [m3/s]




                  11-1910         11-1920    11-1930   11-1940    11-1950      11-1960   11-1970   11-1980     11-1990     11-2000   11-2010



                               ASWAN QP      BAHIR_DAR QP   DONGOLA QP      GIRBA QP     HASSANAB QP     J_AULIA QP      JINJA QP
                               KESSIE QP     KHARTOUM QP    KILO_3 QP       MALAKAL QP   MANGALA QP      ROSEIRES QP     SENNAR QP
                               TAMANIAT QP




                                                                  Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
How much is the Nile            Is it 84.5 billion m3
 (Blue) water?                   (data from 1900 to 1950)




                                 Long term mean: source
                                 Sutcliffe and Parks, 1999
                        Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Nile trends: water flows
                                                                                                                                           MAIN NILE

                                                                                                         Monthly Flows: 1871/72 -2000/01




               160.00                     Q 1900 to 1950 = 86.3
               140.00                                                                                                                                                                                                      What are the recent trends? More
                                                                                                                       Q 1900 to 1995 = 80.8                                                                               water? 88km3
               120.00
 Billion M3




               100.00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             TOTAL
                   80.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5yr moving mean

                   60.00



                   40.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Q 1951 to 1995 = 76.0
                   20.00



                    0.00
                                       84




                                                           96




                                                                                                   20




                                                                                                                       32




                                                                                                                                           44




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                   72


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               71


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                                                                 01


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                                  18




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                19
              18


                        18




                                            18




                                                                19


                                                                          19


                                                                                    19




                                                                                                        19




                                                                                                                            19




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                                                                                                                                                                    19


                                                                                                                                                                              19




                                                                                                                                                                                                  19


                                                                                                                                                                                                            19


                                                                                                                                                                                                                      19
                                                                                                                                 Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
< 25


                        25 - 50


                        50 - 100


                        100 - 200


                        200-400


                        400 - 600
                                                           Mean P
                        600 - 800                          Mean ET0
                        800 - 1000


                        1000 - 1200


                        1200 -1400


                        1400 - 1600


                        >1600




                                      Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
What is the seasonal
variability?




                        Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Nile water accounting: Methodology
•   Based on water balance principle (inflow =
             ∆
    outflow +∆S)
•   Define indictors: supply, consumption,
    beneficial (economical, environmental), non-
    beneficial
•   Boundary conditions (Inputs):
     – Water Supply: Rain, River, Groundwater
     – Water use: Consumptive (ET), non-
       consumptive, beneficial (T), non-beneficial
       (E), committed (treaties), etc.
•   Scales:
     – Spatial: catchment, production system,          Source: Molden, 1997
       sub-basin, basin, country
     – Temporal: month, season, annual, long term
       mean
•   Output
     – Water accounting     water Supported by: CPWF
                                  productivity
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Input: Land and water
       use classes
                               clas
  No.    Land use               s
  1      closed forest         NL
  2      open forest           NL
  3      shrub land            NL
  4      woody savanna         NL
  5      open savanna          NL
  6      sparse savanna        NL
  7      natural wetland       NL
  8      rainfed crops         ML
  9      Urban + industustry   MW
  10     desert                NL
  11     irrigated crop        MW
  12     reservoir
         natural lakes and     MW
  13     rivers                NL
  14     managed wetland       MW
  15     saline sinks          MW




                                      Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Input: Land and water use classes
                                                                                         Productio
                             landus   Area      Area    Rainfall    ET     T      E      n
    o.    Landuse            e type   Km2       %       mm          mm     mm     mm     Kg/ha



1         Closed forest      NL       85,821    3%      1350        1113   929    183    33818
2         Open forest        NL       19,337    1%      900         791    613    177    17316
3         Shrub land         NL       260,299   8%      290         227    162    65     5074
4         Woody savannah     NL       373,785   12%     1090        919    699    220    23348
5         Open savannah      NL       764,232   24%     780         699    510    189    16429
6         Sparse savannah    NL       315,078   10%     685         612    504    107    8741
7         Natural wetland    NL       14,077    0%      670         1299   1088   210    17447
8         Rainfed crops      ML       235,526   7%      910         839    684    155    13672
          Urban and
9         industrial         MW       5,377     0%      350         227    121    105    5776
10        Desert             NL       941,604   30%     60          53     21     32     328
11        Irrigated crop     MW       51,493    2%      250         975    894    80     14758
12        Reservoir          MW       5,991     0%      400         2916   0      2916   0
13        Lakes & rivers     NL       88,832    3%      1250        1555   0      1555   0
14        Managed wetlands   MW       501       0%      450         1704   0      1704   0
15        Saline sinks       MW       313       0%      450         2132   0      2132   0


                                      3,162,26
            Total                     6        Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Water balance for 2007 in km3

                 atural land cover          Managed land use         Managed water use
                  atural forest P, ET      Forest plantation P, ET   Irrigation       P, ET
               Savanna          P, ET      Rainfed crop     P, ET    Managed wetlands P, ET
               Desert          P, ET       ..              P, ET     Drinking water   P, ET
               ..              P, ET                                 ..             P, ET




                        81.4                       5.0                       -57.4


   0.0
  inflow                                              0.0

                                                                                        29.0 Outflow
                                        Aquifer & reservoirs
                                                                                  Committed 9.8
                                             Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Water balance indicators for 2007
                                          water balance components

                     2000        1745     1716
                     1500
              km3


                     1000
                      500
                                                        76.6            57.4             29.0          9.8        19.2
                         0    y




                                                        e




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                                              Water Balance indicators

             100%

              75%

              50%

              25%

                    0%
                             Consumed         Available          Diverted                 Excess             Committed
                                                 Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Water consumption for 2007
                                                                       w ater consum ption


                           2000
                                          1458                                        1305
              ET, km3      1500
                           1000                                                                     716             588
                                                                                                                                       411
                             500                         189             69
                                0




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                                                                      Water consumption indicators
               100%
                80%
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                40%
                20%
                 0%
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                                                                 Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
a n n u a l b io m a s s in 1 0 ^ 9 k g




                                                                                0
                                                                                           500
                                                                                                             1000
                                                                                                                                   1500




19/09/2009, Chaingmai
                                                                 C lo s e d
                                                                  fo r e s t
                                                                   O pen
                                                                   fo r e s t
                                                                   S h ru b
                                                                    la n d
                                                              W oody
                                                             savannah
                                                               O pen
                                                             savannah
                                                              S p a rs e
                                                             savannah
                                                               N a tu r a l
                                                               w e tla n d
                                                                                                                                                          9




                                       land and water use




                  Supported by: CPWF
                                                                                                                                          Biomass production in 10 kg




                                                                R a in fe d
                                                                 c ro p s
                                                            U rb a n a n d
                                                             in d u s tr ia l
                                                                 D e s e rt
                                                               Ir r ig a te d
                                                                                                                                                                        Water production for 2007




                                                                   c ro p
                                                             R e s e r v o ir
                                                                                             Env.
                                                                                                           Feed
                                                                                                                  Food


                                                                                                    wood
                                                                                                                         Biomass




                                                               Lakes &
                                                                r iv e r s
                                                              M anaged
                                                              w e tla n d s
                                                                   S a lin e
                                                                   s in k s
4. WP3: Production Systems &
                  Productivity




                              Basin PS: Low to High Resolution
                            Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Water productivity mapping:
                  METHODOLOGY




                             Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Data sources

  • Production data:
            - Countries statistic departments
            - FAO database in 2005
  • Market prices of agricultural products
  • RS images and secondary GIS data
             - Waterwatch 2007 ETa and Ta maps
            - Land use/land cover (LULC); GLC 2008/ Africover
            - Admin and basin boundaries, road network, ecological zones




                                Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Standardized gross value of production


              SGVP: is an index which helps to compare the economical
              value of different crops regardless in which country or
              region they are.

                 i    local price crop i                                                         
  SGVP        = ∑                           × production crop i  × International price base crop 
      crops           
                i =1  local price base crop
                                                                                                   
                                                                                                  


               Wheat is the major crop in the basin and it is taken
               as base crop.




                                         Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Rainfall and Water stress




                                Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
SGVP


 SGVP/ha is highly variable
 across the basin.

 Egypt has the highest SGVP/ha,
 1830 US$/ha

 Sudan has the lowest SGVP/ha,
 which goes down to about 20
 US$/ha in Northern Darfur




                         Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
WP – SGVP/ETa & SGVP/Ta




                                Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Conclusions

  - More than half of the basin area is under high water stress
  - SGVP and Water productivity are highly variable across
  the Nile basin
  - While Egypt has the highest SGVP and WP, Sudan has the
  lowest
  - Except Gezira and northern provinces of Sudan in which
  irrigated farming is common practice, WP is very low in
  other parts of the country where rainfed farming is
  predominant.




                            Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Livestock Productivity: Where are the animals?
   Tropical
  Livestock                   Nile Basin
 Units per Km2


        <1
       1-10
      10-20
      20-30
       >30
                               Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Water productivity calculations for livestock for the Nile Basin.



                                   Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Water Productivity of Aquaculture

                                                                            Objective
                                                                            •    to estimate quantities of water used
                                                                                 per unit biomass of fish produced in
                                                                                 ponds in the Nile Delta

                                                                            •    to prepare water budgets for earthen
                                                                                 pond aquaculture to help guide future
                                                                                 water allocation policies

                                                                            •    to assess the water productivity
                                                                                 benefits of different aquaculture
                                                                                 technologies and incorporating
                                                                                 aquaculture with agriculture
                                                                                 – production and incomes
    http://girlsoloinarabia.typepad.com/photos/egypt/water_wheel.jpg
                                                                                 – poverty

                                                                       Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Experimental plans


       Estimate net water use in pond
       aquaculture throughout production
       season at two sites in the Nile Delta
       (WorldFish Center pond farm,
       Abbassa, and at a commercial fish                Site 2
       farm, Kafr El-Sheikh)
       Estimate water losses through
       different routes (seepage,
       evaporation, drainage etc )
                                                                 Site 1
       Determine the amount of fish
       produced
       Estimate water consumption rates
       (m3) per kg fish production




                                   Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Estimating water use
                                                        modified from Nath & Bolte (1998)




 waterfeed + inflow = outflow + ∆S + waterfish

 excluding rain, surface runoff, waterfeed, and
 infiltration, inflow can be regarded as water added

 excluding overflow and waterfish outflow can be regarded
 as change in pond storage plus seepage and evaporation
   i.e.
   water consumption per kg fish production = kg fish pond-1/Ii – (E + S + Q ± ∆S)
   water consumption per pond = Ii – (E + S + Q ± ∆S)

                                   Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Abbassa ponds

                                     • 5 ponds, stocked 1 June 2008




                            Supported by: CPWF
19/09/2009, Chaingmai
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project
Nile Basin Focal Project

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Nile Basin Focal Project

  • 1. IWMI NBI ENTRO ILRI WORLD FISH CENTER Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 2. Outline 1. Background 2. WP1 Poverty analysis 3. WP2: Assessment of Water Resources 4. WP3 Assessment of Water productivity 5. WP4 Institutional analysis 6. WP5 Intervention analysis 7. Conclusions Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 3. 1. Background assessment of the basin Nile BFP Project Objective: To identify high potential water management interventions to reduce poverty and increase water productivity Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 4. Basin is highly variable The Basin is highly variable, theSupported by: CPWF river is very important, various interventions 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 5. Key ideas: • Access to water is related to poverty, not availability – need to differentiate access and availability • Water productivity can be a key driver of wealth generation • Issues are different between Egypt and Northern part of Sudan and the rest of the basin – access to water, productivity, institutions, etc. • In US Basin countries water access is limited, and water productivity low – key to poverty reduction. Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 6. Project premise: • These are missed opportunities because agriculture water management for rainfed, wetland, livestock, fisheries, aquaculture tend to fall in a void. • There are inadequate institutional arrangements to support this. Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 7. Project premise: • There are numerous opportunities to manage water better for agriculture in order to improve productivity, food security and livelihoods. • While most of the focus is on river water, we start with rainfall to look for opportunities outside of the river. • Significant gains can be made through improving rainfed production systems through better agricultural water management • Livestock, fisheries, aquaculture, wetlands provide opportunities, but are generally absent in Nile discourse. Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 8. Baseline Conditions • High poverty and low development 0.90 Egypt Sudan Kenya • High Rainfall Poor Water Distribution-high loss Uganda Hum developm index 0.78 Ethiopia Tanzania upstream Rwanda ent 0.65 average, all countries • Drought & flooding 0.53 • High rainfall variability an 0.40 • High agriculture dependency, slow 0.28 transformation 0.15 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 • Despite potential, low water usage Year 10000 3618 Agricultural Population in the Nile Basin Pe rc en tag e o f A g ric u ltu ra l 936 1050 1012 Precipitation (km 3 yr -1 ) 1000 285 402 100 1979-1981 Po p u la tio n 80 100 1989-1991 51 45 60 34 32 1999-2001 40 2003 10 20 2004 0 1 t ia i n ea a ia da da yp DR nd da op ny an it r an an Eg ru Egypt Eritrea Rw anda U ganda Kenya Ethiopia Tanzania Burundi Sudan D R Congo Su Ke hi o, Er nz Ug Bu Rw Et ng Ta Co Supported by: CPWF Countries 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 9. Nile Basin Study Sites: Study Sites Nile Delta Sudan Transect Basin Wide Sudd Ethiopian Highlands Cattle Corridor Lake Victoria: Ugandan Highlands Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 10. Case Study Sites Y # SU D A M ong alla Y # [ % N im ule L aropi As w a P anyang o # Y Y # P akw ac h # Paraa A lb Y Y K am d ini er t # M u rchision Fa lls N il e Y # Ma sind i P ort B ut iaba Y # D R C Bu n ia L. Albert Y # [ % B ug ond o L. K y og a Kaf u Na ma sag ali [ % V ic B we ram ule Y # tori ki S em ili M bu lam u ti Y # aN Fo rt P o rtal M u z izi [ % ile N ga m b a O w e n Falls D am ia N zo S io Y # Y # Jinja [ % Y ala K at on ga Ka m p ala K asen y i # L. G e orge Y E n teb b e % [ Kis u m u So nd u Ish a ng o Y # Y # # K azing a C ha n ne l Y [ % K atw e L. E d war d Ka ge L. Victoria ra Bu ko b a [ % [ % M ara M u s om a K ig ali L. K ivu [ % Nyaborongo D im [ % a M w a nza vuvu Sim yu Ru L. Ta ng any ik a Y # D isc harge Stations [ % Tow ns Falls Equatorial La ke S ub- Basins Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai Riv ers Sc a le 1 :4 , 25 0 , 00 0
  • 11. The Nile Basin Food or environment? Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 12. Irrigation Schemes Country Irrig. Water Irrigation Irrigated Requirement, Potential, ha Area, ha m3/ha/yr Burundi 13,000 80,000 0 DRC 10,000 10,000 0 Egypt 13,000 4,420,000 3,078,000 Eritrea 11,000 150,000 15,124 Ethiopia 9,000 2,220,000 23,160 Kenya 8,500 180,000 0 Rwanda 12,500 150,000 2,000 Sudan 14,000 2,750,000 1,935,200 Tanzania 11,000 30,000 10,000 Uganda 8,000 202,000 9,120 Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 13. Irrigation Schemes, current & future … Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 14. Hydropower Plants, current & future Existing Sites New Planned Sites Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 15. Irrigated A green-blue view Rain = 1745 km3 Rainfed ET – 190 km3 Irrigated ET – 67 km3 Outflow – 10 to 30 km3 Limited options to expand Pastoral irrigation – but gets attention Rainfed Ample options to upgrade Wetlands agriculture on rainfed lands – gets little attention Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 17. Nile Wetlands 14 Ramsar Sites All support agriculture and/or fisheries All sites listed as threatened by these activities Image of the Sudd CPWF, IWMI, WorldFish, ILRI, NBI Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 18. The Sudd Wetland: Inundation Extent Image courtesy of JAXA K&C Image courtesy of JAXA K&C ALOS PALSAR L-band SAR RED: June 2008, GREEN: September 2008, BLUE: December 2008 Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 19. Jonglei Canal Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 20. Jonglei Canal 360 km long 7 5 m wide 4 to 8m deep Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 21. Irrigation Schemes Country Irrig. Water Irrigation Irrigated Requirement, Potential, ha Area, ha m3/ha/yr Burundi 13,000 80,000 0 DRC 10,000 10,000 0 Egypt 13,000 4,420,000 3,078,000 Eritrea 11,000 150,000 15,124 Ethiopia 9,000 2,220,000 23,160 Kenya 8,500 180,000 0 Rwanda 12,500 150,000 2,000 Sudan 14,000 2,750,000 1,935,200 Tanzania 11,000 30,000 10,000 Uganda 8,000 202,000 9,120 Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 22. Irrigation Schemes, current & future … Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 25. 2. WP1 Poverty analysis Objectives: • To establish a broad understanding of poverty and how it relates to water access in production systems in the Nile • To create an overview of poverty and vulnerability indicators relevant for the Nile basin • To test links between water, agriculture and poverty in the Nile basin Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 26. Research questions: • What are the basin characteristics of water and poverty and how are they linked? • Where are the poor and what are their water related problems? • What are the water-related risks in crop-livestock systems? Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 27. Methods: • Literature review of the basin • Mapping hotspots of poverty in agricultural systems – We use food security, poverty level and poverty inequality to map poverty in the rural agricultural production systems of the Nile Basin. – Poverty in this case is related to household expenditure on food and non- food items. – Poverty line is drawn from expenditure required to purchase cost of a basket of goods that allows minimum nutrition requirements • Mapping vulnerability and water related risks • Case study on mapping poverty indicators and water access - Uganda Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 28. Poverty Hotspots: ± ± KEY KEY Rivers Water bodies Rivers Poverty level (%) Poverty hotspots <15 KEY Water bodies KEY 15 - 25 Poverty hotspots Mixed rainfed Rivers 25 - 35 Lakes Production system Cereals Nile Basin bnd 35 - 45 Agro-Pastoral Cereals+ Poverty level > 50% 45 - 55 Treecrops Legumes >55 Pastoral Rootcrops+ No data Legumes+ Treecrops+ 0 290 580 870 1,160 0 145 290 580 870 1,160 0 145 290 580 870 1,160 Rootcrops Kilometers Kilometers Mixed rain Kilometers 0 130 260 520 780 1,040 Kilometers Poverty in the Poverty in pastoral Poverty in cereal Poverty in tree and basin and agropastoral and legume root crop systems systems systems (banana, cassava & cotton) Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 29. Mapping vulnerability and water related risks • Vulnerability as exposure to risk, ability to cope with resulting impacts and the capacity to adapt to new conditions • Mapped several indicators of bio-physical and social risks which results into vulnerability • The outcomes of these cluster data were combined as severity indices ranging from 4 to 5 levels depending on the number of variables used • Vulnerability maps indicate levels of exposure to risk. These risks ranged from very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low risk and very low risk. Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 30. Vulnerability hotspots: KEY KEY River Nile KEY River Nile River Nile Water bodies Water bodies Bio-physical vulnerability Water bodies Bio-physical risk Very low KEY Bio-physical risk Very low River Nile Low Very low Low Water bodies Medium Medium Bio-Physical risks Low High High Very low Medium Very high Very high Low 0 145 290 580 870 1,160 0 145 290 580 870 1,160 High Kilometers Kilometers Medium High Very high 0 145 290 580 870 1,160 Kilometers Very high 0 145 290 580 870 1,160 Kilometers Rainfed cereals Rainfed tree crops Irrigated Agropastoral • hotspots of vulnerability in agricultural systems (biophysical risks estimated from cluster data classification of human and livestock population, market access, internal renewable water resources and area of crop suitability) • population is a key driver of exposure to biophysical vulnerability especially in the intensifying crop livestock systems throughout the highlands and in the central belt of Sudan Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 31. Vulnerability: KEY River Nile KEY KEY Water bodies River Nile River Nile Social risk KEY Water bodies Water bodies Very low River_Nile Social risk Social risks Water bodies Very low Low Very Low Social risk Low Medium Low Low Medium High Medium Medium High Very high 0 145 290 580 870 1,160 High 0 145 290 580 870 1,160 0 145 290 580 870 1,160 High Kilometers Kilometers Very high Kilometers Agropastoral Rainfed cereals Rainfed tree crops Irrigated -cluster data vulnerability in agricultural systems (social risks estimatedstunted hotspots of classification of disease prevalence; malaria HIV/AIDS and from growth and malnourished children below age 5) - high vulnerability index in agropastoral areas reflects exposure and low capacity to cope with disease and food insecurity due to high poverty rates - low vulnerability index in irrigated systems reflects better institutional capacity to cope with the impacts of disease and food insecurity - exposure to disease and food insecurity is widespread in the rainfed agricultural systems of the basin except along the lower nile and into the delta region Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 32. Water related risks: ± KEY KEY KEY River Nile KEY River Nile River Nile Water bodies River Nile Water bodies Water bodies Water bodies Risk due to water Risks due to water Risk due to water Risk due to water Very low Very low Low Ver Low Low Low Medium Medium Low Medium High High Medium High Very high Very high 0 145 290 580 870 1,160 High 0 145 290 580 870 1,160 Very high 0 145 290 580 870 1,160 Kilometers 0 145 290 580 870 1,160 Kilometers Kilometers Kilometers Agropastoral Rainfed cereals Rainfed tree crops Irrigated - hotspots of water related risks in agricultural systems (hazards estimated from cluster data classification of drought index; rainfall variability as CV rain and changes in the length of growing period; LGP) - high risk index in agropastoral and rainfed areas reflects high variation due to rainfall and changes in the length of growing period - low risk index in irrigated systems reflectsCPWF dependency on rainfall Supported by: less 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 33. Linking water, agriculture and poverty Where are the poor? What are their water related problems? • in hotspots with high population • Food insecurity due to high poverty densities in the mixed rainfed rates and dependency on rainfed agricultural systems particularly agriculture those supporting cereal-legume cropping and banana/cassava • high risk of rainfall variation and changes in length of growing season in systems pastoral and agropastoral systems • These are concentrated in the • high exposure to disease and highlands of east Africa (Kenya, malnutrition due to low institutional Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and capacity to cope with the negative Ethiopia) impacts • In pastoral and agropastoral • low risk of rainfall variation and systems of the central belt of changes in length of growing season in the highlands as well as lake Victoria Sudan, northern Uganda and the sub-basin but widespread poverty still lake region of Tanzania unexplained by good market access • Low poverty in rice, wheat and cotton systems Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 34. 3. WP2: Assessment of Water Availability and Access Egypt Objectives: – Assess Nile water availability (spatio- temporal distribution) – Assess water demands and use – Assess water accessibility Eritrea Sudan Methodology Ethiopia – Rapid Assessment through literature review – Identify and fill in gaps of existing knowledge – Statistical analysis (trends, frequencies) Uganda Congo, DRC Kenya – Water accounting Rwanda Tanzania Burundi Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 35. Nile Basin Databases • Hydrological data base • Climate (precipitation) database (+ grid data) • ET, soil moisture, biomass, etc., (WaterWatch) • Storage systems database Flow station rainfall station (under development) Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 36. Sample results: Data collection Nile Database: Monthly river flow: 1910 to 2000 Discharge Processed [m3/s] 11-1910 11-1920 11-1930 11-1940 11-1950 11-1960 11-1970 11-1980 11-1990 11-2000 11-2010 ASWAN QP BAHIR_DAR QP DONGOLA QP GIRBA QP HASSANAB QP J_AULIA QP JINJA QP KESSIE QP KHARTOUM QP KILO_3 QP MALAKAL QP MANGALA QP ROSEIRES QP SENNAR QP TAMANIAT QP Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 37. How much is the Nile Is it 84.5 billion m3 (Blue) water? (data from 1900 to 1950) Long term mean: source Sutcliffe and Parks, 1999 Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 38. Nile trends: water flows MAIN NILE Monthly Flows: 1871/72 -2000/01 160.00 Q 1900 to 1950 = 86.3 140.00 What are the recent trends? More Q 1900 to 1995 = 80.8 water? 88km3 120.00 Billion M3 100.00 TOTAL 80.00 5yr moving mean 60.00 40.00 Q 1951 to 1995 = 76.0 20.00 0.00 84 96 20 32 44 56 74 98 72 78 90 02 08 14 26 38 50 62 68 80 86 92 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 83 95 19 31 43 55 73 97 71 77 89 01 07 13 25 37 49 61 67 79 85 91 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 39. < 25 25 - 50 50 - 100 100 - 200 200-400 400 - 600 Mean P 600 - 800 Mean ET0 800 - 1000 1000 - 1200 1200 -1400 1400 - 1600 >1600 Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 40. What is the seasonal variability? Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 41. Nile water accounting: Methodology • Based on water balance principle (inflow = ∆ outflow +∆S) • Define indictors: supply, consumption, beneficial (economical, environmental), non- beneficial • Boundary conditions (Inputs): – Water Supply: Rain, River, Groundwater – Water use: Consumptive (ET), non- consumptive, beneficial (T), non-beneficial (E), committed (treaties), etc. • Scales: – Spatial: catchment, production system, Source: Molden, 1997 sub-basin, basin, country – Temporal: month, season, annual, long term mean • Output – Water accounting water Supported by: CPWF productivity 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 42. Input: Land and water use classes clas No. Land use s 1 closed forest NL 2 open forest NL 3 shrub land NL 4 woody savanna NL 5 open savanna NL 6 sparse savanna NL 7 natural wetland NL 8 rainfed crops ML 9 Urban + industustry MW 10 desert NL 11 irrigated crop MW 12 reservoir natural lakes and MW 13 rivers NL 14 managed wetland MW 15 saline sinks MW Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 43. Input: Land and water use classes Productio landus Area Area Rainfall ET T E n o. Landuse e type Km2 % mm mm mm mm Kg/ha 1 Closed forest NL 85,821 3% 1350 1113 929 183 33818 2 Open forest NL 19,337 1% 900 791 613 177 17316 3 Shrub land NL 260,299 8% 290 227 162 65 5074 4 Woody savannah NL 373,785 12% 1090 919 699 220 23348 5 Open savannah NL 764,232 24% 780 699 510 189 16429 6 Sparse savannah NL 315,078 10% 685 612 504 107 8741 7 Natural wetland NL 14,077 0% 670 1299 1088 210 17447 8 Rainfed crops ML 235,526 7% 910 839 684 155 13672 Urban and 9 industrial MW 5,377 0% 350 227 121 105 5776 10 Desert NL 941,604 30% 60 53 21 32 328 11 Irrigated crop MW 51,493 2% 250 975 894 80 14758 12 Reservoir MW 5,991 0% 400 2916 0 2916 0 13 Lakes & rivers NL 88,832 3% 1250 1555 0 1555 0 14 Managed wetlands MW 501 0% 450 1704 0 1704 0 15 Saline sinks MW 313 0% 450 2132 0 2132 0 3,162,26 Total 6 Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 44. Water balance for 2007 in km3 atural land cover Managed land use Managed water use atural forest P, ET Forest plantation P, ET Irrigation P, ET Savanna P, ET Rainfed crop P, ET Managed wetlands P, ET Desert P, ET .. P, ET Drinking water P, ET .. P, ET .. P, ET 81.4 5.0 -57.4 0.0 inflow 0.0 29.0 Outflow Aquifer & reservoirs Committed 9.8 Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 45. Water balance indicators for 2007 water balance components 2000 1745 1716 1500 km3 1000 500 76.6 57.4 29.0 9.8 19.2 0 y e ed ed ow ed s l bl pp es um itt rt ila tfl su xc ve m va ou ns om E di er A co at C w Water Balance indicators 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Consumed Available Diverted Excess Committed Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 46. Water consumption for 2007 w ater consum ption 2000 1458 1305 ET, km3 1500 1000 716 588 411 500 189 69 0 l al nv n ia t.. .. co .. ici f ic -E n. wa c. -E f ne la ne al nd al ed ed be Be ici l la ici ag f ag n- ne f ne ra an No an Be tu Be m m na Water consumption indicators 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% LU T LU T U T .E .E lE W al ed nv n ia ed ur co ag fic E ag at E n_ ne an N n_ an Be Be M Be M Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 47. a n n u a l b io m a s s in 1 0 ^ 9 k g 0 500 1000 1500 19/09/2009, Chaingmai C lo s e d fo r e s t O pen fo r e s t S h ru b la n d W oody savannah O pen savannah S p a rs e savannah N a tu r a l w e tla n d 9 land and water use Supported by: CPWF Biomass production in 10 kg R a in fe d c ro p s U rb a n a n d in d u s tr ia l D e s e rt Ir r ig a te d Water production for 2007 c ro p R e s e r v o ir Env. Feed Food wood Biomass Lakes & r iv e r s M anaged w e tla n d s S a lin e s in k s
  • 48. 4. WP3: Production Systems & Productivity Basin PS: Low to High Resolution Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 49. Water productivity mapping: METHODOLOGY Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 50. Data sources • Production data: - Countries statistic departments - FAO database in 2005 • Market prices of agricultural products • RS images and secondary GIS data - Waterwatch 2007 ETa and Ta maps - Land use/land cover (LULC); GLC 2008/ Africover - Admin and basin boundaries, road network, ecological zones Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 51. Standardized gross value of production SGVP: is an index which helps to compare the economical value of different crops regardless in which country or region they are. i  local price crop i   SGVP = ∑  × production crop i  × International price base crop  crops  i =1  local price base crop      Wheat is the major crop in the basin and it is taken as base crop. Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 52. Rainfall and Water stress Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 53. SGVP SGVP/ha is highly variable across the basin. Egypt has the highest SGVP/ha, 1830 US$/ha Sudan has the lowest SGVP/ha, which goes down to about 20 US$/ha in Northern Darfur Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 54. WP – SGVP/ETa & SGVP/Ta Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 55. Conclusions - More than half of the basin area is under high water stress - SGVP and Water productivity are highly variable across the Nile basin - While Egypt has the highest SGVP and WP, Sudan has the lowest - Except Gezira and northern provinces of Sudan in which irrigated farming is common practice, WP is very low in other parts of the country where rainfed farming is predominant. Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 56. Livestock Productivity: Where are the animals? Tropical Livestock Nile Basin Units per Km2 <1 1-10 10-20 20-30 >30 Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 57. Water productivity calculations for livestock for the Nile Basin. Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 58. Water Productivity of Aquaculture Objective • to estimate quantities of water used per unit biomass of fish produced in ponds in the Nile Delta • to prepare water budgets for earthen pond aquaculture to help guide future water allocation policies • to assess the water productivity benefits of different aquaculture technologies and incorporating aquaculture with agriculture – production and incomes http://girlsoloinarabia.typepad.com/photos/egypt/water_wheel.jpg – poverty Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 59. Experimental plans Estimate net water use in pond aquaculture throughout production season at two sites in the Nile Delta (WorldFish Center pond farm, Abbassa, and at a commercial fish Site 2 farm, Kafr El-Sheikh) Estimate water losses through different routes (seepage, evaporation, drainage etc ) Site 1 Determine the amount of fish produced Estimate water consumption rates (m3) per kg fish production Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 60. Estimating water use modified from Nath & Bolte (1998) waterfeed + inflow = outflow + ∆S + waterfish excluding rain, surface runoff, waterfeed, and infiltration, inflow can be regarded as water added excluding overflow and waterfish outflow can be regarded as change in pond storage plus seepage and evaporation i.e. water consumption per kg fish production = kg fish pond-1/Ii – (E + S + Q ± ∆S) water consumption per pond = Ii – (E + S + Q ± ∆S) Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai
  • 61. Abbassa ponds • 5 ponds, stocked 1 June 2008 Supported by: CPWF 19/09/2009, Chaingmai