1. The Karkheh Basin Focal Project took a multi-disciplinary approach to understand water availability, productivity, poverty, and institutions in the basin. 2. Key findings included groundwater overdraft, high variability in evapotranspiration, the need to incorporate flow variability in planning, and substantial room for increasing water productivity. 3. Recommendations focused on improving rainfed and irrigated practices, targeting irrigation, exploring additional water sources, and shifting from low-value grain to higher-value crops and uses over the long term.

1. Karkheh Basin Focal Project:
Synthesis of approach, findings and
approach
lessons
Cali BFP Conference
September 17-20, 2007
17 20,

3. Work Package 2
Water Availability
W A il bili

4. WP 2-Approach
1. Synthesis studies
2.
2 Time series meteorological and h d l i l d
Ti i l i l d hydrological data collection f
ll i from
secondary sources/relevant ministries
3. Identification of information/data gaps and filling
4.
4 Quick understanding of hydrology and water balance a simple
balance,
spreadsheet water account applied with help of Mac Kirby
5. Detailed hydrological analysis
– Assessment of the spatial variability in land use classification,
precipitation and actual evaportranspiration using surface energy
i it ti d t l t i ti i f
balance model
– Time series analysis of stream flow mainly using Flow Duration
Curves (FDC) approach
– Detailed b t h
D t il d sub-catchment l t level water b l
l t balance analysis using HBV and
l i i d
SWAT models

5. Spatial distribution of precipitation and
actual evapotranspiration (2002-3)
(2002 3)
Rainfall distribution in the Basin Actual evapotranspiration in the
(2002-3)
(2002 3) Basin (2002-3)

6. Percentage distribution of ETa from
different land use classes
(year 2002-03, summary of SEBS results)
Irrigated crops
11% Water
Range Lands 7%
27% Other land
classes
27%
Bare
Lands/Urban
areas
Bare Rain fed crops 27%
Lands/urban 29%
areas
3%
Grass land
7%
Orchards
Forest 2%
21%
Irrigated crops
39%
(a) Upper Karkheh (b) Lower Karkheh

7. WP 2 Findings
• Scarcity and Competing Demands Meeting the competing water
demands is emerging as the key challenge in Karkheh mainly because of
increasing allocations for irrigation
• Groundwater Overdraft Rapidly increasing reliance on groundwater use
for agriculture, especially in upper Karkheh. Groundwater withdrawals have
already exceeded the safe limits in Gamasiab and Gharsu sub-basins and
sub basins
pose a threat to agricultural sustainability.
• High Variability in ET Remote sensing analysis showed high inter- and
intra-subcatchment level variability in evaportranspiration which is mainly
attributed to fragmented and diverse land uses in Karkheh-possible
g p
opportunities
• Flow Variability and Planning FDC analysis reveals that planning on the
basis of mean annual surface water availability could only provide a supply
security in the range of 35-50%. There is a need to incorporate the natural
variability of surface water availability i water resources d
i bilit f f t il bilit in t development and
l t d
allocation strategies, particularly for low flow years when meeting the
competing water demands becomes more difficult.

8. Hawr Al Azim Swamp Devolution
7,600 Km2
of primary
wetlands
areas
disappeared
Year 1973-76 Year 2000

9. Work Package 3:
Water Productivity

10. WP 3 - Approach
1. Synthesis study
2a. Secondary data collection (district)
Crop production, Livestock production, Forest production, Prices
2b. Remote sensing based analysis
Land use classification, Yield estimation for major crops, RS
determined Et (surface energy balance), RS interpolated yield
3. Farm Survey
Sample survey, all sub-basins in Karkheh
Small, medium,
Small medium large farmers; rainfed
rainfed,
irrigated and mixed farms.
data on factors of production

12. A paper based on Water Productivity is submitted for BPF Special Session, 13 IWRA World Water Congress at Montpellier, France –
September 2008.

13. 0.40
0.35 0.34
0.30
m3)
ductivity (US$ /m
0.25
ation water prod
0.20 0.19
0.15
0.13
Irriga
0.11
0.10
0.05
0.05
0 05 0.04
0 04
0.03
0.00
Morocco (Triffa) Turkey (Seyhan) Niger (Saga) Egypt (Nile Delta) Pakistan India (Mahi Iran (Karkheh
(Chishtian) Kadana) basin)
Country (Irrigation system)

14. WP 3 Findings
1.
1 Likely b t ti l
Lik l substantial room for water productivity
f t d ti it
through changed practices further substantiated by
the high variation in farm scale productivity estimates
even within the same sub catchments Though of
sub-catchments.
course cross-country comparisons must be used with
caution.
2.
2 Likely substantial room for water productivity
increase through reallocation, though our models
not sufficient for analysis
3.
3 Importance of Livestock (fish others?)
(fish,

15. Work Package 1
Poverty

16. WP 1-Approach
1. Synthesis study
2. Use Household Income and Expenditure Surveys
for Iran covering the last 2 decades and calculate
g
urban and rural poverty lines for Iran
• We were lucky it existed
3. Re-categorize data to perform analysis on the
Karkheh and its sub-basins

17. WP 1 Findings
1. Poverty in Iran and the Karkheh has dropped over
y pp
the last 20 years, particularly in rural areas.
2. The Karkheh basin is less poor than is Iran as a
whole.
3. Rural areas of the Karkheh are less poor than
urban, when adjusted for differing costs of living
4.
4 Farmers are in the top half of the rural income
F i th t h lf f th li
bracket in the Karkheh.
5. The poorest rural area of the Karkheh is the lower
reach-based on 6 sub-basin breakdown

18. U
ne
m
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
pl
oy 0.40
ed
M
an
ag
er
C
le
Tr r k
ad
ep
er
s on
Pr Fa
o rm
du er
ct
io
n
w
U or
ke
ns
ki r
lle
d
w
or
ke
r
KB
C
ou
nt
ry

19. Work Package 4
Institutional Analysis
I i i lA l i

20. WP 4- Approach
1. Examine the history of the basin-in terms of water use
as well as th policy environment i which th t use
ll the li i t in hi h that
changed.
2. Gain an understanding of the formal institutions
directly i
di tl involved in the water sector within th
l d i th t t ithi the
Karkheh.
3. Look at those institutions within Iran in general and
the Karkheh in particular which are directly related to
the alleviation of poverty.
4. Look at some of the broader policy issues within Iran
which are likely to influence both water use and
poverty within the Karkheh.

21. WP 4 Findings
1. Basin has gone through a series of phases
since 1900, the most recent of which has put
substantial emphasis on wheat production, not
water productivity. Questions of sustainability
2. “Standard” set of partially overlapping water
management institutions
3. Large set of poverty alleviation institutions

22. 4) Broader issues
• Fall of Shah, conflict with US/West and Iran-Iraq war
q
made food self-sufficiency a national priority
• Ongoing wars on two borders and nuclear conflict with
west given continued reason for policy
• Result is use of water for low productivity grains that
could be imported
• P i i and subsidy system th t b
Pricing d b id t that benefits mostly th
fit tl the
urban sector and encourages waste-Iran now one of
largest agricultural importers
• Implicit subsidy on fuel equal to 12% of GDP-targeted
redistribution of about ½ would eliminate poverty

23. Work Package 5
Water,
Water Poverty and
Productivity Linkages
(Analysis of Interventions)

24. PODIUMSim: 2025 Horizon
(Food & Water Demand and Supply)
Three scenarios are developed:
1- Business as Usual Scenario
Focus on wheat
2- Sustainable Management Scenario
Focus on the environment
3- “Best Case” Scenario
Focus on tradeoffs and social optimums
Productivity/Poverty in all

25. WP 5 Findings
• No question that increase in water use has
allowed expansion of area and increase in
y
yields
• But now no direct connection between
p
production and rural p
povertyy
• Probably greater connection between
p
production and urban p poverty and/or
y
national food security goals-which may be
in opposition to WP maximization

26. Trends in poverty and agricultural
production, Karkheh
1,800
1 800 0.7
07
1,600
0.6
1,400
,
0.5
1,200
1,000 0.4
000 Ha
800 0.3
600
0.2
400 Harvested Area
Poverty Incidence 0.1
200
0 0
1983 1993 2004

27. Karkheh Recommendations
• the use of non-agricultural water measures is likely
to b
t be a more effective solution t remaining rural
ff ti l ti to i i l
poverty in the Karkheh basinareas, better and increased use
1. For both rainfed and irrigated and Iran.
of inputs.
• In the shortgto medium term, agricultural water policy
2. For irrigated areas, better targeted irrigation applications.
g g
should For rainfed areas, exploring means ofphysical water
h ld f
3. focus on i improvements in additional water t
t i h i l
productivity wherever possible, though considering possible
application so as to improve the use scarce water
resources for given national food security priorities.
trade-offs with downstream areas.
Promising options include:
4.
4 While opportunities of improving productivity exist in both the
• In the longerlower Karkheh, towardsbasin appears to be most
upper and term, shift the upper economic water
productivityfor productivity improvement potential. lower
promising by moving water away from
productivity grain production and towards higher
value agricultural and other activities including
hydropower generation and urban uses.

28. High Priority Research
1. What makes basin results comparable or not?
– Agro-ecosystm
Agro ecosystm similarity?
– Economic similarity?
– Political similarity?
The answer may change for given basins over time.
2.
2 What are the national and global water impacts of food self-sufficiency
policies, such as those caused by food embargo threats?
– especially applicable to the arid and generally water scarce states of the Middle
East/North Africa.
– Not unreasonable to hypothesize that water productivity gains from policy change in this
arena could be as large or larger than those possible through technical intervention
intervention.
3. Is there a general framework to determine when and where (both within
and across countries/basins) water is a cost effective poverty alleviation
tool?
4.
4 How to better consider surface/groundwater interaction and implement
effective groundwater policy?
5. How best to capture livestock, fisheries, forestry and possibly other
agricultural systems? How to easily move from average to marginal water
productivity calculations for use in decision making?

29. Key suggestions for new BFPs
• Do quick assessments/reports on key issues
• Take
T k an historic perspective to understand h
hi i i d d how things got to the
hi h
current state
• Take a broad view of policy and its effects on agriculture and water
use
• Make sure any water productivity estimates are inclusive, e.g.
livestock-maintain difference between average and marginal
• Think simultaneously about water as a means for overall economic
growth,
growth reducer of poverty in general and reducer of poverty in the
general,
agricultural sector and the tradeoffs between the three
• Put another way, don’t force the water poverty issue but think about
water as a means for additional poverty alleviation
• MAKE THE PROJECT A TEAM EFFORT WITH EACH PACKAGE
LEADER IS INVOLVED IN EVERY WORK PACKAGE

30. Actor (or group of Change in Practice Change in Knowledge
Knowledge, What are the project s
project's What are the key
actors who required to achieve Attitudes, Skills and strategies assumptions?
are the project's vision? Aspirations (KASA) (including
expected to required to achieve development of
change in the project's vision? outputs) to bring
the same about these
way) changes in KASA
and Practice?
CPWF It will provide base Methodologies used/ Frequent interaction with The methodologies and
information and developed for each CPWF BFP central process useful for
highlight emerging work packages will be and other BFB Karkheh and
issues related to useful to conduct teams to share similar river basins
agricultural poverty, similar studies in other methodologies,
productivity and CPWF river basins experience and
sustainability in the results
basin context. This will
help CPWF (and donor
agencies) to make
strategic decision for
further funding.
Ministry of Jehad-e- The results will help The improved understanding Joint studies with Iranian Capacity building will
Agriculture; transformation towards of basin function in organizations/institut contribute to
Ministry of basin scale term of water es were conducted. longer term object
Energy; perspective on issues availability, use, Trainings of NARS of the project. The
Ministry of of land and water,
fl d d t productivity and
d ti it d for PODIUMSi
f PODIUMSim results of the
lt f th
Rural agriculture, poverty livelihood will help analysis were projects will be
planning; and their inter-linkages enhance interaction conducted. Results uptake by relevant
Universities between different were disseminated institutes.
(University of ministries. Thereby, through workshop,
Tabrez) formulating coherent IWMI/CPWF reports,
policies for improving peer reviewed
land and water journal papers and
productivity and PhD thesis
reducing water related
poverty.

31. Outputs Who will use the outputs? Why? What is in it for Change in Knowledge, Indicator(s) of change
them? Attitudes, Skills,
Aspirations and
Practice resulting
from use
1) Karkheh BFP Project CPWF, IWMI, AREO, To plan future research Improved understanding Research & development
reports MOE and other agenda and make of basin scale investments leading
Iranian partners better water issues related to towards addressing
management water productivity, key challenges in river
decisions in the poverty and basin management
light of the tradeoffs
answers to the
key BFP
questions out
spanning from the
BFP research
2) IWMI research CPWF, Policy makers, improving knowledge Improved understanding Reference of this research in
reports/working
t / ki water managers,
t andd and management
d t policy d
li documentations,
t ti
papers scientists/research understanding of basin scale discussions, research
ers, students, based on the issues related to papers
farmers scientific water productivity,
information and poverty and water
policy directions management.
3) Conference Participants Sharing and learning Extracting relevant No. of workshops/conference
papers/presentatio from each others lessons/messages organized
ns/ Discussions experiences for their local
context
4) Journal papers Researchers/scientists, New knowledge, Improved understanding Reference of this research in
p
policy makers,
y , methodologies
g and management
g p
policy documentations,
y ,
water managers, and scientific facts of basin scale discussions, research
scientists, issues related to papers
students, farmers water productivity,
and other poverty and water
stakeholders management.
5) PhD thesis Researchers/scientists, New knowledge, Improved understanding Reference of this research in
policy makers, methodologies and management policy documentations,
water managers, and scientific facts of basin scale discussions, research
scientists, issues related to papers
students, farmers water productivity,
and other poverty and water
stakeholders management.

32. Thanks