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Colliers Global Office Report
1. 2012 | office
GLOBAL office
2013 OUTLOOK
GLOBAL OFFICE MARKETS SHOW
STABILITY IN THE FACE OF HEADWINDS
The global economy has seen recent headwinds from the smoldering eurozone debt crisis, slowing growth in
GLOBAL CAPITALIZATION RATES /
PRIMe YIELDS: 10 Lowest cities
China’s economy and the forecasted American fiscal cliff. Yet our overall global view of office real estate is
moderately positive. While many large occupiers have taken a wait-and-see attitude toward the global economy,
CBD CAP RATE (%) others are leasing up much-needed space to accommodate expanding operations. Quality office buildings in
MARKET
(Ranked by JUNE DEC JUNE major global cities are seeing consistent demand from both occupiers and investors.
June 2012) 2012 2011 2011
Taipei 2.50 2.60 2.80 • ●U.S.
is showing gradually lowering vacancy rates. Canada’s office market continues to perform well
Hong Kong 2.67 2.94 3.22 and is seeing notable development activity in major markets. Office absorption has been largely driven
Vienna 3.50 3.50 3.50 by Intellectual Capital, Energy and Education (ICEE) sectors.
Singapore 3.90 4.20 4.30 • Mexico
and Brazil report slightly higher vacancies, due to a combination of speculative construction and
London - West End 4.00 4.00 4.00 slackening economic growth. Yet São Paulo still boasts the ultra-low vacancy rate of 3.3%.
Zurich 4.00 4.10 4.10
• Average
Central Business District (CBD) office rents remained broadly unchanged across key EMEA
Geneva 4.25 4.25 4.00
markets, but this has been a result of limited supply more than increased demand. Business confidence
Beijing 4.31 4.32 5.93
across Europe is firmly negative, which does not bode well for the next year of activity.
Paris 4.50 4.50 4.50
• China’s
slowing growth has dampened office demand in some Asian markets. Beijing’s office market
Munich 4.50 4.50 4.50
Tokyo 4.50 4.50 4.60 remains healthy, but appeared lackluster when compared to an extremely active 2011.
GLOBAL OFFICE OCCUPANCY COSTS: Top Three Markets by Region: June 2012 Cap Rate (%)
TOP 10 CITIES
Asia Pacific 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0
CLASS A / NET RENT (USD/SF/YR)
EMEA Taipei 2.50
MARKET
(Ranked by JUNE DEC JUNE Hong Kong 2.67
June 2012) 2012 2011 2011 North America
Vienna 3.50
Hong Kong 166.70 178.34 185.91 Latin America
Singapore 3.90
London – West End 125.65 120.31 124.50
Zurich 4.00
Tokyo* 106.01 110.17 104.91
London - West End 4.00
Rio de Janeiro 90.40 93.05 85.70
New York, NY - Midtown Manhattan 4.70
Paris 87.50 87.23 97.73
Vancouver, BC 4.75
Moscow 83.58 75.78 64.64
London – City 76.18 75.29 77.97 New York, NY - Midtown South Manhattan 4.90
Perth 75.77 73.85 74.74 Buenos Aires 9.00
Geneva 63.70 65.31 72.83 Mexico City 9.00
São Paulo 63.50 63.43 71.42 Rio de Janeiro 10.25
*Tokyo rents listed are gross rents.
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2. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
GLOBAL 2013 FORECAST: Office Demand Outlook Arrows
• Expect only modest improvement in North American office vacancy rates over
the next two years, with the exception of a few strong ICEE markets.
• Central
and Eastern Europe are feeling the effects of economic stagnation. Office demand to remain stable
Greater certainty in the eurozone is still some ways away, although a
continued improvement in activity is expected by mid-2013.
• Rents
in UK regional markets should remain stable due to the lack of Grade A Office demand to increase
space. Most markets will reach a ‘tipping point’ by mid-2013 at which time
further rental growth is expected.
• The
outlook for the Beijing office property market, especially in the Class A Office demand to decrease
sector, should continue to be positive; with investment market in the office
property sector to also remain strong.
> UNITED STATES OFFICE DEMAND DRIVEN BY TECH, ENERGY However, the fate of the office vacancy rate does not merely depend upon an
Intellectual Capital, Energy and Education (ICEE) markets continue to generate a increase in office workers; new construction also plays a role in the calculation.
disproportionate share of office absorption in the US, and nine of the 10 US As a result, the 2012 vacancy rate’s drop below 15% is not likely to be bettered
markets with the highest Q2 absorption have strong ICEE industries, led by by a 14% vacancy rate in 2013. Look for only modest improvement in office
Houston, Oklahoma City and Boston. The average vacancy rate was 140 basis vacancy rates over the next two years.
points lower in ICEE-dominated markets.
> RESOURCES SUPPORTING CANADIAN DEMAND, BOND RATES
For the first time in nearly five years, in Q1 2012, the US office vacancy rate DRIVING INVESTMENT Observers expect continued slow and steady
dropped below 15%. The rate continued to decline by 13 basis points to 14.29% economic performance, with no exceptional wins or losses on the radar for
in Q2. New supply is delivered to the market at approximately the same pace as Canada. The divide between the east and west is firmly entrenched, with the
the trailing five-quarter average. With 38.4 million square feet of new construction energy and mining sectors driving stronger results in Alberta, Saskatchewan
still underway, additions to supply will impede improvement in occupancy or and British Columbia. Ontario and Quebec will post more moderate growth, as
rental rates over the next four to eight quarters. the economy in the United States gradually improves, exports gather speed and
the manufacturing sector recovers.
United States: 2013 Outlook
CBD office buildings are outperforming the suburbs as companies consolidate Canada: 2013 Outlook
operations into the central core of Metropolitan Service Areas (MSAs), and this Economic growth will be impacted by a retraction of government stimulus
trend will continue in 2013. Large spaces are in stronger demand as a result of spending and weakening consumer activity as household debt curtails retail
this consolidation. As in 2012, landlords will be able to increase rents for large sales growth. The fundamentals of all major office markets continue to be very
space users at lease renewal. solid, with the national vacancy rate under 6%. Demand for office space will be
muted in the east, while resource-oriented western markets continue to be hot.
Professional and business service employment accounted for approximately
one-third of the monthly job growth in 2012, averaging 150,000 per month. As a result, 2012 should end with a steady performance, with a further pick-up in
Top 10 Office Markets with the Most SPACE
Victoria
6%
4.75%
$34.53
Vancouver
5.5%
$41.92
Calgary
Under Construction (Square Feet)
$21.64
6.2%
$20.61
Seattle MARKET JUNE 2012
Montreal
6.5%
$22.80
São Paulo 14,641,067
Tokyo 11,325,147
6%
New York- 4.7%
Boston
$25.63
Midtown $35.80
6.5%
$16.85
New York-
Downtown
5%
$23.14
4.9%
$25.87
New York-
Midtown South
Beijing 9,827,581
5.6%
$24.71 6.5% Chicago
Jakarta 9,228,884
San Francisco $13.71 Average Class A
Denver
Net Rents and Mexico City 8,481,452
Cap Rates – June 2012
Rio de Janeiro 7,661,260
7.8%
$100 or more
$11.49 Shanghai 5,480,466
Atlanta
$50 to $100
New York, NY -
$25 to $50
Downtown Manhattan
5,200,000
0%
$36.8 less than $25
Panama City 4,226,862
Houston
N/A
Singapore 3,896,532
Rents are US$/SF/YR.
p. 2 | Colliers International
3. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
growth commencing in 2013. The investment market will continue to be very active
while bond rates remain low and investors turn to real estate as a safe yield-
producing investment. Key risks on the Canadian radar are the fragile condition of
Europe, the U.S. Fiscal Cliff and slowing growth in resource-hungry emerging
economies.
> MEXICO’S ECONOMIC GROWTH DRIVES OFFICE DEMAND AND
9%
$31.20
Mexico City
CONSTRUCTION Mexico City saw the construction of more than 2.1 million
square feet of office space in the first half of 2012, which has pushed up overall
vacancy rates. 893,405 square feet were absorbed in the first quarter of 2012 and
more than 1.9 million square feet in the second.
This 100% increase in market activity is to some extent due to the addition of
buildings with pre-leased space to the inventory. It is worth noting that even with
increased inventory, average rental rates did not show significant fluctuations and
remained relatively stable.
Average Class A Net Rents
Mexico: 2013 Outlook and Cap Rates – June 2012
The Mexican economy will continue to advance at a steady pace, with employment
and wages showing slight increases and a GDP growth rate that is expected to
reach 3.7% by the end of 2012, and continue this trajectory in 2013. The recently
elected Institutional Revolutionary Party presidential candidate Enrique Peña Nieto
$100 or more
10.25%
$90.40
will push for some energy and labor reforms, however the initiatives of the new
administration should not significantly shift Mexico’s growth trajectory.
$50 to $100
Rio de Janeiro
> SÃO PAULO BOASTS LOW VACANCY, ALTHOUGH ABSORPTION HAS
MODERATED Brazil’s dynamic economy of recent years has contributed to a new
$25 to $50
less than $25
9%
$34.21
Buenos Aires
global perception of Brazil as a hub for investment and capital. The cities of Rio de
N/A
Janeiro and São Paulo have a combined Class A office inventory of more than 26
million square feet and Rio de Janeiro has no room for new buildings in its
downtown. The average vacancy across both cities is 6.8%. Rio de Janeiro’s
vacancy is 10.4% while São Paulo’s is only 3.3%.
Brazil: 2013 Outlook
Despite low vacancy rates, there has been some moderation in office demand. The
average asking lease prices decreased by 0.7% from Q1 to Q2 2012 in São Paulo
and Rio de Janeiro. Net absorption in Q2 was the lowest it has been since the third
quarter of 2009. Therefore, we predict slackening demand and limited supply will
Rental rate changes are calculated using period US$ exchange rates and may reflect
provide only a slight increase in occupancy and rental rates through 2013. fluctuations in currency exchanges. Rents are US$/SF/YR.
São Paolo Skyline
p. 3 | Colliers International
4. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
> LOW CONFIDENCE FOR EMEA BUSINESSES, BUT
BRIGHT SPOTS PERSIST The first half of 2012 was Average Class A Net Rents
dominated by economic stagnation across Europe. The
eurozone contracted by 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 12
and re-entered technical recession in Q3 12 with a 0.1% q/q
and Cap Rates – June 2012
4.75%
$61.74
Stockholm
contraction. Central and Eastern Europe are feeling the $100 or more
effects. Positive indicators for H1 12 in Germany and France
have given way to more sobering numbers with $50 to $100 5%
$20.56
Copenhagen
manufacturing and service purchasing manager indices
suggesting a further period of economic uncertainty and
$25 to $50 4.7%
$31.05
5%
stagnation. Both economies expanded by a modest 0.2% q/q
in Q3 12 and this was not enough to counter balance
less than $25 4%
$125.65
London
Hamburg $26.81
Berlin
contractions in the eurozone periphery N/A
4.5%
$87.50 4.5% 3.5%
4% $38.81 $26.11
EMEA: 2013 Outlook Paris
$47.04
4.25% Munich Vienna
Average CBD office rents remain broadly unchanged across $63.70 Zurich
key EMEA markets; in most cases this has been the result of
Geneva
limited supply, rather than robust demand. A 13% y/y drop in
the volume of investment transactions was recorded across
Europe in the first part of 2012. Despite sagging business
confidence across EMEA, Q3 12 transaction levels saw a Rental rate changes are calculated using period US$ exchange rates and may reflect
fluctuations in currency exchanges Rents are US$/SF/YR.
modest rise, although the increase is lagging better results in
across AsiaPac and the Americas. Greater certainty in the eurozone is still some United Kingdom: 2013 Outlook
ways away, although a continued improvement in activity is expected by mid-2013. Rents in UK regional markets should remain stable due to the lack of Grade A space.
Speculative construction has been absent from these markets since 2008 and this
> UNITED KINGDOM STILL SEEN AS SAFE ENVIRONMENT FOR REAL trend is projected to continue. Most markets will reach a ‘tipping point’ by mid-2013
ESTATE INVESTMENT Despite the fact that the UK economy saw a surge in Q3 at which time further rental growth is expected. Rents in Central London will also
12, the economy will finish the year on a weaker note. Nevertheless, relative political come under upward pressure with the West End market set to see new historical
and economic stability continues to augment the perception of Britain as a ‘safe highs for prime rents.
haven’ for direct investment in real estate. As a eurozone outsider, the UK has
benefited, attracting strong capital flows not only from eurozone countries, but also > SUSTAINED DEMAND IN GERMAN OFFICE MARKET After a mild
from North America, Asia, and the Middle East. Prime office yields are stable at contraction in Q4 11, the German economy bounced back with GDP growth in Q1 12
around 4% in London’s West End and between 5% and 5.25% in the City. reaching 0.5% q/q. Since then the growth rate has tapered off to 0.2% q/q in Q3 12.
The exposure of German banks to the Spanish property market remains a worrying
London remains the top European office investment market with a 20%+ y/y factor, but export growth is also a worry as world trade has slowed.
increase in sales volume in H1 12. The vacancy rate in Central London was stable
between H2 11 and H2 12 at 6.9%. Several UK markets have seen disappointing Take-up in the six main German office markets stood at approximately 13.9 million
take-up levels so far in 2012, although London’s West End has seen an increase in square feet in the first half of 2012, which represents a 9% y/y decline. Nevertheless,
pre-leasing activity and rents are still climbing. the overall vacancy rate fell from 9.7% in H1 11 to 8.4% in 2012. Demand from
Helsinki at dusk
p. 4 | Colliers International
5. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
professional services firms has been steady and may explain some of the notable
rental increases; there have been sustained lettings of higher-priced space in
central locations. The two most expensive locations for office investment remain
Hamburg with prime yields of 4.7% and Munich at 4.5%. These low yields are a
result of high demand for a limited amount of new supply. Investors remain focused
on these markets due to continued good turnover figures, but also these market
have a degree of safe haven status as leading markets in what is perceived as the
most stable member of the eurozone.
Germany: 2013 Outlook
Considering the economic environment, the German office leasing market has held
up well and will remain stable in 2013. Underlying leasing demand, together with
current rental contract negotiations, suggest some modest growth in take-up
volumes. Investors will continue to look for opportunities across the German
markets and prices are expected to remain stable.
> FRENCH OFFICE MARKET IN STATE OF EQUILIBRIUM, YET FEARS
REMAIN Against an unsettled economic backdrop, the core sectors of France’s
commercial real estate market have proven resilient. While supply and demand
appear to be in equilibrium, fears of new imbalances are linked to expectations of
further economic deterioration.
Take-up of office space in Île-de-France has held up well and stood at over 10
million square feet in the first half of 2012. This number was down only slightly
year-over-year. Transactions involving small units maintained pace, but leasing
transactions for medium-sized suites are down significantly. The supply of new and
second-generation office space (available within a year) declined by 11% in the past
six months. Rental rates have stabilized in high-quality buildings. However, a
correction in rental values for lower-quality, second-generation space in the future
may develop.
Commercial property commitments in France in the first half of 2012 represented a
year-over-year increase of 18%. Transactional evidence suggests no significant
change in office yields which, on the best properties, range from 4.5 to 5.5% in the
Paris CBD. Paris is also seeing safe haven investment due to its status as an
important international financial node.
London, England
France: 2013 Outlook
The trend of shrinking office space availability is expected to be reversed as a current political instability is also a factor. However, the majority of eastern European
number of new construction projects complete in 2013. Despite increased supply, countries are expected to post positive GDP growth in 2012; the regional economy
the market is expected to remain stable, provided no unforeseen economic setbacks as a whole is expected to grow by 2.7%. Poland, Russia and Turkey, alongside
occur. International investors will continue to track Paris for new opportunities. dynamic economies such as Latvia, are helping drive growth in the region.
> INVESTOR DEMAND KEEPS OFFICE YIELDS LOW IN CORE NORDIC In line with a decline in economic conditions, office space demand contracted by
MARKETS The Nordic growth rates (2013 GDP forecasts range from 1.4% to 2.1%) 24% compared to leasing activity in 2011. Almost all markets were below the
are relatively strong when seen against core European markets. AAA credit ratings demand levels seen in the second half of 2011, with the exceptions of Warsaw,
for Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden have supported the perception that Prague and Zagreb. Nevertheless, rents have remained stable across the region,
Nordic markets are safe destinations for capital. with a notable 10.3% increase recorded in Moscow. The volume of investment
transactions also fell in comparison to the same period of 2011, mainly as a result of
Office investors have shown great appetite for property in primary locations, reduced debt finance availability. This has kept transactions focused on the larger,
pushing up the yield spread between primary and secondary Nordic markets. The more liquid Polish and Russian markets.
number of investment transactions has been increasing. Denmark and Sweden in
particular have seen a higher volume of cross-border transactions. CEE: 2013 Outlook
We expect the transaction trend focusing investment on larger, more liquid markets
(mentioned above) will continue over the next 12 months. We also expect to see
Nordics: 2013 Outlook
subdued activity from both demand and supply in the near term, with continued
A modest increase in investment activity is expected in 2013, particularly
divergence in activity by geography. Market uncertainty combined with restricted
concentrated in primary Nordic markets and from international investors; a shift in
construction finance availability will continue to constrain new supply. This should
preference among tenants to cost-effective, modern and green office buildings is
keep vacancy rates at current levels in most markets.
also likely. Leasing markets will remain stable.
> CEE SEES LOWER OFFICE DEMAND DESPITE POSITIVE ECONOMY > SOUTHERN EUROPE’S RENTS STILL FALLING; MIDDLE EAST
Although, the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region is showing more economic HAMPERED BY OVERSUPPLY There was further weakening in the headline-
growth than Western Europe, the region is vulnerable to Western European grabbing markets of Southern Europe. Athens saw a 7.1% decrease in asking rents
economic performance. This has been very apparent in Hungary and the Czech and Madrid recorded a 2.1% fall. Vienna saw a slight increase in CBD rental levels
Republic whose economies both contracted over the first half of 2012. Both in the first half of 2012, while the rents in the Benelux markets recorded no changes.
countries are very dependent on trade with the western European core, although Geneva saw a marginal fall in rents. A decrease in rents is expected in Swiss
p. 5 | Colliers International
6. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
Major Office Markets with the Largest Period Change in Rent “ The unresolved European
debt crisis and slowing
QUOTED UNITS OF TIME JUNE DEC
MARKET CURRENCY MEASUREMENT PERIOD 2012 2011 CHANGE economic growth in China
have eroded Hong Kong’s
Jakarta IDR SM Month 242,192.00 174,249.00 39.0%
Bogotá USD SM Month 33.00 27.40 20.4%
economic growth prospects.
Calgary, AB CAD SF Year 42.62 36.00 18.4% Inflationary pressure
Chicago, IL USD SF Year 16.85 14.50 16.2% from the third round of
Denver, CO USD SF Year 13.71 12.19 12.5% US quantitative easing is
Moscow USD SM Month 75.00 68.00 10.3%
expected to push up real
Stuttgart EUR SM Month 19.00 17.50 8.6%
São Paulo BRL SM Month 114.50 106.00 8.0%
estate values, where the
Buenos Aires USD SM Month 30.70 28.60 7.3% local currency is pegged to
Beijing CNY SM Month 336.11 313.69 7.1% the US dollar.”
* - Change in rent as measured in local currency, unit of measurement and time period.
markets, due to poor demand levels; the strength of the local currency is impacting headquarters and Danone Group’s securing of 76,435 square feet at Kerry Parkside.
business activity substantially. Switzerland and Austria also saw significant declines
in office investment activity in comparison to the first half of 2011. Average gross yields in Shanghai’s Class A office sector declined to 5.8% during the
third quarter, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous quarter.
Southern Europe: 2013 Outlook
Further falls in rental levels are expected. With low occupational demand and Shanghai: 2013 Outlook
creeping investment volumes, prime office yields will continue to soften further in The limited number of recent land transactions indicate that developers still remain
Athens, Milan, Madrid and Rome. The largest increase in 2012 was recorded in cautious about making land acquisitions for further commercial development.
Lisbon, at 50 basis points.
> BEIJING OFFICE MARKET SEES NARROWING AVAILABILITY Despite
Across the Middle East, political and economic uncertainty continues to translate weak economic performance in many developed economies, Beijing, as the capital
into poor performance in local real estate markets, with low demand from both of China, will continue to attract overseas and domestic enterprises as they establish
tenants and investors. A further weakening of the Cairo market was noticeable, as or expand their offices. Beijing’s overall office property market was stable in the first
well as major declines in rents in the main office markets of UAE and Saudi Arabia, half of 2012. The disequilibrium between supply and demand remained unchanged
where significant oversupply was the cause. as new completion was limited, leading to a continued narrowing availability across
the board.
> OFFICE DEMAND FROM FINANCIAL AND MAINLAND COMPANIES IN
HONG KONG The unresolved European debt crisis and slowing economic growth
in China have eroded Hong Kong’s economic growth prospects. Inflationary pressure 4.32%
from the third round of US quantitative easing is expected to push up real estate $58.94
4.5%
values, where the local currency is pegged to the US dollar. Beijing $106.01
Tokyo
Office rents showed signs of stabilization in 3Q 2012 due largely to the solid demand 2.5%
from a range of medium-sized financial companies and the support of mainland 2.67% $27.64
enterprises. Leasing demand was soft in the city’s Class A office market. Overall net $166.70
Taipei
absorption fell 26% quarter-over-quarter to 386,000 square feet in 3Q 2012. Hong Kong
Hong Kong: 2013 Outlook
Due to the limited supply of Class A office buildings for lease, the vacancy rate on 3.9%
Hong Kong Island will remain low in 2013, with the exception of Central/ Admiralty, $63.35
where falling demand for top-tier office premises is anticipated to cause the vacancy Singapore
rate to edge up further. Overall, the average vacancy rate will settle around its Average Class A Net Rents
and Cap Rates – June 2012
historical average of 5% by the end of 2012.
With the external uncertainties and tightening of mortgage lending criteria, $100 or more
Brisbane
investment sentiment in the office market weakened during 3Q 2012. The average
yield of Hong Kong Class A offices compressed 20 basis points to 3.1% in July 2012. $50 to $100 7.5%
$58.94
The decrease in Class A office yield reflected the strong demand for Class A offices
$25 to $50
by investors. 6.9%
Sydney
$60.85
7.5%
less than $25 Adelaide
$36.13 7.32%
> NEW OFFICE CONSTRUCTION AND PRELEASING ACTIVITY IN 7.06% $34.42
$47.35
SHANGHAI The average rental rate for Class A office space in Shanghai continues Market with gross-rent data only Canberra
Melbourne
to grow. Citywide, vacancy increased to 9.5% due to the launch of five new projects
in the downtown area, including the high-profile L’Avenue and SOHO Century
Avenue. A number of high-profile leases were signed, including Adidas’ 187,293 Rental rate changes are calculated using period US$ exchange rates and may reflect
square feet in Shanghai International Commerce Center for their new China fluctuations in currency exchanges. Rents are US$/SF/YR.
p. 6 | Colliers International
7. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
Although demand from both multinationals and domestic enterprises was firm, the Over 1.7 million square feet of new office space entered Seoul’s office market in the
leasing market in the first half of 2012 appeared lackluster when compared to the first half of 2012, with the completion of the K Twin Tower in the Central Business
extremely active year of 2011. The average net effective rent continued to climb, but District and three buildings in the Gangnam Business District (GBD). New supply is
the growth momentum softened, associated with declining transaction volume. The expected to continue to edge up in the CBD and YBD.
office property investment market was also active, evidenced by several transactions
concluded during the review period. The vacancy rate for offices in Seoul fell 0.76% in the first half of 2012 to 6.97%.
There was almost no vacancy in the area’s Class A+ office buildings, which had an
Beijing: 2013 Outlook average vacancy rate of 0.11%. The average rent for an office in Seoul in the first
The outlook for the Beijing office property market, especially in the Class A sector, half of 2012 increased by 4.46% over the previous period. The net absorption in
should continue to be positive. However, negotiations between landlords and Seoul’s office market during 2Q 2012 increased remarkably from the previous
tenants could become more elastic in the near term. The investment market in the quarter to nearly 1.6 million square feet.
office property sector of Beijing will remain active.
Seoul: 2013 Outlook
> TOKYO OFFICE USERS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OVERSUPPLY The Low supply, increased rental rates and a slight decrease in vacancy point to
Tokyo Class A office market continues to experience frequent tenant relocations as moderate improvement in the Seoul market in 2013. However, new supply will keep
occupiers take advantage of an oversupply by upgrading the quality of their office strong gains in rent or occupancy in check.
space while reducing overall rents. Office development has been concentrated in
three central wards of Tokyo, with 2012 marking the second-biggest year for new > SINGAPORE CLASS A CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT RENTS TO
office construction since 2003. FALL The global economic environment has weighed down Singapore’s office
Office properties in Tokyo’s central business districts and major cities are enjoying leasing activity, pushing average Class A gross rents in the CBD down by 5.4%. This
the greatest interest from institutional investors, with more than 80% of investment represented a reversal of the rental growth trend that had been steadily gaining
capital focused in the central six wards of Tokyo, according to data from RCA. More steam since the office market bottomed out in the end of 2009.
than half of the total transaction volume in Japan is made up of office property sales.
Tokyo ranked fourth globally in volume of office property transactions valued over Singapore: 2013 Outlook
$10 million per asset in the past 12 months. Lowered office rents will improve Singapore’s competitive edge as a regional hub
for business. Overall CBD office space vacancy rates inched down from 12.8% in
Tokyo: 2013 Outlook December 2011 to 12.6% in June 2012. There is a threat of an impending supply
Higher vacancy rates have accompanied the new supply from 2012, however overhang. In addition to the steady lineup of new office buildings that will be
vacancy should begin to decline again soon. Class A rents are stabilizing, with some completed over the next four years, a substantial amount of secondary space could
properties showing rental rate increases. Although average rents will decline be returned to the market upon lease expiration as existing tenants move to new
slightly through the end of 2012, we project they will begin to increase moderately premises. CBD Class A office rents are expected to continue decline through 2013.
in late 2013.
> SLOWING ECONOMY REINS IN INDIAN OFFICE DEMAND India’s
> SEOUL SEES DROPPING VACANCY DESPITE NEW OFFICE economic growth has slowed, a result of uncertainties in domestic policy, the
CONSTRUCTION A number of Class A office buildings have come online in Seoul cumulative impact of monetary tightening and slackening of external demand.
in the last year in both the Central Business District (CBD) and Yeouido Business Rental rates for Class A office space in Mumbai will remain stable across most
District (YBD) . This construction came on the heels of the successful launch of the submarkets. In Delhi, Class A rents increased by 2% to 7% over the previous quarter
International Finance Centre(IFC) in the Yeouido Business District’s (YBD) first in popular locations such as Connaught Place and Nehru Place, while 4% to 10%
Class A office building in 2011. drops were seen in Jasola and Saket.
Yokohama Skyline
p. 7 | Colliers International
8. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
While construction activities remained moderate in Mumbai in Q2 2012, Dehli saw allocations to direct property. This means that the demand for prime assets is going
fast-paced activity in a newly developed area near Delhi Airport named Aerocity. to become more competitive in 2013. However, the outlook for rental growth is more
Two projects located at Aerocity, Aria Signature Office and IBIS Commercial Tower, limited. It is likely we will see some growth in Brisbane and Perth CBD rents, while
developed by JW Marriot and IBIS Hotel respectively, added approximately 200,000 Melbourne and Sydney CBD rents remain flat in 2013.
square feet of Class A space to the market.
> NEW EARTHQUAKE POLICIES IN NEW ZEALAND HIT CBD OFFICE
India: 2013 Outlook The implementation of earthquake-prone buildings policies has had a profound
Going forward, the rental values for Class A office space are expected to remain effect on the New Zealand CBD office market over the last 12 months. The process
stable in almost all Delhi and Mumbai submarkets. of obtaining an engineering evaluation while maintaining insurance has been an
expensive exercise for institutions and private owners. Wellington has been hit the
> FOREIGN INVESTORS ACCOUNT FOR HALF OF AUSTRALIAN hardest.
PROPERTY PURCHASES The Australian economy continues to show signs of
strength, with GDP growth of 3.7% recorded in the first nine months of 2012. This Leasing activity at the top end of the market has remained firm in Wellington as a
relatively strong growth is no doubt a contributor to strong foreign interest in result of the growing number of office tenants looking to move away from buildings
Australian property, with offshore purchasers now accounting for around a half of perceived to be earthquake-prone, and this has helped keep prime rentals buoyant.
all purchases in 2012. However, the Auckland CBD office market has been the stronger performer of the
two cities. Prime CBD office space remains tight in buildings around the CBD.
Although economic growth is strong, the two-speed nature of Australia’s economy
means that some office markets are performing far better than others from a tenant New Zealand: 2013 Outlook
demand perspective. In particular, office markets in the resource-rich states of The economic climate in New Zealand remains muted over the next few years and
Western Australia and Queensland are showing stronger rental growth than the the complexity surrounding the Wellington office market hinders any chance of
larger economies of Victoria and New South Wales. However, investment patterns seeing sustained rental growth in the next few years. Less fortunate are owners of
are not following leasing demand. Demand for office assets is higher in Sydney and the older Class C or even B buildings who face a nasty cocktail of decreasing value
Melbourne CBDs, even though these cities are both seeing a decline in rents. and demand, along with increasing insurance costs. Auckland is more resilient,
supported by job growth prospects and likely economic growth. Landlords of better-
Australia: 2013 Outlook quality buildings in both Auckland and Wellington can anticipate an increase in rental
There is a strong outlook for investment in Australian office markets. Although in the next 12 months.
foreign purchasers are dominating at present, local Australian REITS have now
recapitalized and Australian pension funds have also expressed interest in increasing
Brisbane, New Zealand
p. 8 | Colliers International
9. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
local measure / currency cbd rents
cbd rent cbd rent us
MEASURE local currency dollars/sq ft/yr
Average cbd cap
exchange AVERAGE AVERAGE Average class a rate
quoted TIME rate (USD) class a class a class a Gross / prime
MARKET COUNTRY unit currency PERIOD JUNE 30, 2012 net rent gross rent net rent rent yield (%)
asia pacific
Adelaide Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 380.00 485.00 36.13 46.11 7.50
Brisbane Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 620.00 750.00 58.94 71.30 7.50
Canberra Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 362.00 440.00 34.42 41.83 7.32
Melbourne Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 498.00 617.00 47.35 58.66 7.06
Perth Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 797.00 956.00 75.77 90.89 8.00
Sydney Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 640.00 776.00 60.85 73.78 6.90
Beijing China SM CNY Month 6.36 336.11 366.11 58.94 64.20 4.31
Chengdu China SM CNY Month 6.36 145.28 164.33 25.48 28.82 7.60
Hong Kong China SF HKD Month 7.76 107.76 125.14 166.70 193.58 2.67
Shanghai China SM CNY Month 6.36 307.00 261.00 45.77 53.81 4.50
Jakarta Indonesia SM IDR Month 9,385.00 242,192.00 299,588.00 28.76 35.58 8.10
Tokyo Japan SM JPY Year 79.82 91,113.00 106.01 4.50
Auckland New Zealand SM NZD Year 1.25 334.00 466.00 24.86 34.69 8.40
Wellington New Zealand SM NZD Year 1.25 343.00 442.00 25.53 32.90 8.19
Makati City Philippines SM PHP Month 41.82 895.00 23.85 9.00
Singapore Singapore SF SGD Month 1.27 6.68 8.45 63.35 80.13 3.90
Seoul South Korea SM KRW Month 1,141.15 64,575.00 23,896.00 63.06 23.34 6.00
Taipei Taiwan SM TWD Month 29.80 739.00 887.00 27.64 33.17 2.50
Bangkok Thailand SM THB Month 31.55 680.00 725.00 24.02 25.61 8.30
EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA (EMEA)
Tirana Albania SM EUR Month 0.79 15.50 21.87 14.00
Vienna Austria SM EUR Month 0.79 18.50 26.11 3.50
Antwerp Belgium SM EUR Month 0.79 10.40 14.68 7.00
Brussels Belgium SM EUR Month 0.79 15.00 21.17 6.00
Sofia* Bulgaria SM EUR Month 0.79 9.00 12.70 9.00
Zagreb* Croatia SM EUR Month 0.79 12.50 17.64 9.00
Prague* Czech Republic SM EUR Month 0.79 15.50 21.87 6.50
Copenhagen Denmark SM DKK Month 5.87 108.30 20.56 5.00
Cairo Egypt SM USD Month 1.00 21.75 24.24 9.00
Tallinn Estonia SM EUR Month 0.79 13.40 18.91 7.50
Bordeaux France SM EUR Month 0.79 13.50 19.05 6.50
Lyon France SM EUR Month 0.79 18.80 26.53 6.00
Marseille France SM EUR Month 0.79 15.90 22.44 6.15
Paris France SM EUR Month 0.79 62.00 87.50 4.50
Berlin Germany SM EUR Month 0.79 19.00 26.81 5.00
Düsseldorf Germany SM EUR Month 0.79 23.00 32.46 5.20
Frankfurt Germany SM EUR Month 0.79 30.00 42.34 5.20
Hamburg Germany SM EUR Month 0.79 22.00 31.05 4.70
Munich Germany SM EUR Month 0.79 27.50 38.81 4.50
Stuttgart Germany SM EUR Month 0.79 19.00 26.81 5.40
Athens* Greece SM EUR Month 0.79 13.00 18.35 7.75
Budapest* Hungary SM EUR Month 0.79 12.50 17.64 7.75
Dublin Ireland SM EUR Month 0.79 20.00 28.23 7.50
Milan Italy SM EUR Month 0.79 40.00 56.45 5.50
Rome Italy SM EUR Month 0.79 29.00 40.93 5.85
Riga Latvia SM EUR Month 0.79 12.00 16.94 8.00
Vilnius Lithuania SM EUR Month 0.79 13.50 19.05 8.50
Amsterdam Netherlands SM EUR Month 0.79 17.80 25.12 6.65
* Rents reflect combined A and B Class.
p. 9 | Colliers International
10. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
local measure / currency cbd rents
cbd rent cbd rent us
MEASURE local currency dollars/sq ft/yr
Average cbd cap
exchange AVERAGE AVERAGE Average class a rate
quoted TIME rate (USD) class a class a class a Gross / prime
MARKET COUNTRY unit currency PERIOD JUNE 30, 2012 net rent gross rent net rent rent yield (%)
EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA (EMEA) continued
Oslo Norway SM NOK Year 5.96 3,250.00 50.65 5.50
Warsaw* Poland SM EUR Month 0.79 22.20 31.33 6.50
Lisbon Portugal SM EUR Month 0.79 15.21 21.47 8.00
Bucharest* Romania SM EUR Month 0.79 15.00 21.17 8.00
Moscow* Russia SM USD Month 1.00 75.00 83.58 9.50
Saint Petersburg Russia SM USD Month 1.00 33.00 36.78 10.00
Jeddah Saudi Arabia SM SAR Year 3.75 934.00 23.13
Riyadh Saudi Arabia SM SAR Year 3.75 1,130.00 27.99 10.00
Belgrade* Serbia SM EUR Month 0.79 15.50 21.87 9.00
Bratislava* Slovakia SM EUR Month 0.79 11.00 15.52 7.50
Madrid Spain SM EUR Month 0.79 23.50 33.17 5.90
Stockholm Sweden SM SEK Year 6.92 4,600.00 61.74 4.75
Geneva Switzerland SM CHF Month 0.95 54.17 63.70 4.25
Zurich Switzerland SM CHF Month 0.95 40.00 47.04 4.00
Istanbul Turkey SM USD Month 1.00 28.67 31.95 7.00
Kyiv* Ukraine SM USD Month 1.00 23.00 25.63 12.00
Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates SM USD Month 1.00 30.46 33.95
Dubai United Arab Emirates SM USD Month 1.00 32.90 36.67 10.00
Belfast United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 12.50 19.63 6.25
Birmingham United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 21.00 32.98 6.00
Bristol United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 24.00 37.70 6.25
Edinburgh United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 21.00 32.98 6.00
Glasgow United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 23.00 36.12 6.00
London – City United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 48.50 76.18 5.25
London – West End United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 80.00 125.65 4.00
Manchester United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 22.00 34.55 6.00
LATIN AMERICA
Buenos Aires Argentina SM USD Month 1.00 30.70 35.75 34.21 39.84 9.00
Rio de Janeiro Brazil SM BRL Month 2.01 163.00 186.50 90.40 103.43 10.25
São Paulo Brazil SM BRL Month 2.01 114.50 137.00 63.50 75.98 10.25
Bogotá Colombia SM USD Month 1.00 33.00 36.20 36.78 40.34 8.25
San José Costa Rica SM USD Month 1.00 17.75 19.48 19.78 21.71 10.76
Mexico City Mexico SM USD Month 1.00 28.00 31.00 31.20 34.55 9.00
Panama City Panama SM USD Year 1.00 20.00 24.00 1.86 2.23 9.50
Lima Peru SM USD Month 1.00 20.00 20.60 22.29 22.96 12.50
north AMERICA
Calgary, AB Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 42.62 62.00 41.92 60.98 5.50
Edmonton, AB Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 23.20 41.44 22.82 40.76
* Rents reflect combined A and B Class.
p. 10 | Colliers International
11. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
local measure / currency cbd rents
cbd rent cbd rent us
MEASURE local currency dollars/sq ft/yr
cbd cap
average rate
exchange AVERAGE AVERAGE average class a / prime
quoted TIME rate (usd) class a class a class a gross yield
MARKET COUNTRY unit currency PERIOD JUNE 30, 2012 net rent gross rent net rent rent (%)
Guelph, ON Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 11.47 23.10 11.28 22.72 7.25
Halifax, NS Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 17.03 32.36 16.75 31.83
Montréal, QC Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 23.18 42.00 22.80 41.31 6.50
Ottawa, ON Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 26.79 49.30 26.35 48.49 6.95
Regina, SK Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 24.70 40.40 24.30 39.74 7.00
Saskatoon, SK Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 25.00 38.00 24.59 37.38 7.00
Toronto, ON Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 29.20 58.40 28.63 57.25
Vancouver, BC Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 35.10 55.00 34.53 54.10 4.75
Victoria, BC Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 22.00 36.00 21.64 35.41 6.00
Waterloo Region, ON Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 13.65 25.28 13.43 24.87 7.25
Atlanta, GA United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.49 22.99 11.49 22.99 7.80
Bakersfield, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 9.31 17.40 9.31 17.40
Baltimore, MD United States SF USD Year 1.00 12.22 23.22 12.22 23.22
Birmingham, AL United States SF USD Year 1.00 20.92 20.92 20.92 20.92
Boise, ID United States SF USD Year 1.00 14.71 20.71 14.71 20.71
Boston, MA United States SF USD Year 1.00 25.63 45.63 25.63 45.63 6.00
Charleston, SC United States SF USD Year 1.00 20.09 30.09 20.09 30.09 8.00
Charlotte, NC United States SF USD Year 1.00 23.80 23.80 23.80 23.80
Chicago, IL United States SF USD Year 1.00 16.85 37.35 16.85 37.35 6.50
Cincinnati, OH United States SF USD Year 1.00 13.72 23.22 13.72 23.22 9.75
Cleveland, OH United States SF USD Year 1.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00
Columbia, SC United States SF USD Year 1.00 19.39 19.39 19.39 19.39
Columbus, OH United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.23 19.89 11.23 19.89
Dallas/Fort Worth, United States SF USD Year 1.00 15.00 25.00 15.00 25.00
TX
Denver, CO United States SF USD Year 1.00 13.71 29.56 13.71 29.56 6.50
Detroit, MI United States SF USD Year 1.00 23.63 23.63 23.63 23.63 12.00
Fresno, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 15.90 24.00 15.90 24.00 9.00
Ft. Lauderdale- United States SF USD Year 1.00 17.58 31.08 17.58 31.08
Broward, FL
Grand Rapids, MI United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.38 19.33 11.38 19.33 9.25
Hartford, CT United States SF USD Year 1.00 10.40 22.90 10.40 22.90
Honolulu, HI United States SF USD Year 1.00 18.48 35.16 18.48 35.16
Houston, TX United States SF USD Year 1.00 36.80 36.80 36.80 36.80
Indianapolis, IN United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.55 19.05 11.55 19.05 8.00
Jacksonville, FL United States SF USD Year 1.00 9.54 19.44 9.54 19.44
Kansas City, MO United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.04 19.04 11.04 19.04
Las Vegas, NV United States SF USD Year 1.00 19.84 30.84 19.84 30.84
Little Rock, AR United States SF USD Year 1.00 8.89 15.59 8.89 15.59 9.50
Los Angeles, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 20.36 36.36 20.36 36.36 6.90
Louisville, KY United States SF USD Year 1.00 19.06 19.06 19.06 19.06
p. 11 | Colliers International
12. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
local measure / currency cbd rents
cbd rent cbd rent us
MEASURE local currency dollars/sq ft/yr
cbd cap
average rate
exchange AVERAGE AVERAGE average class a / prime
quoted time rate (usd) class a net class a class a gross yield
MARKET COUNTRY unit currency period JUNE 30, 2012 rent gross rent net rent rent (%)
NORTH AMERICA continued
Memphis, TN United States SF USD Year 1.00 8.26 16.71 8.26 16.71
Miami-Dade, FL United States SF USD Year 1.00 24.73 40.23 24.73 40.23
Milwaukee, WI United States SF USD Year 1.00 8.57 19.60 8.57 19.60
Minneapolis, MN United States SF USD Year 1.00 5.48 15.25 5.48 15.25
Nashville, TN United States SF USD Year 1.00 21.77 21.77 21.77 21.77 6.50
New York, NY - Downtown United States SF USD Year 1.00 23.14 47.62 23.14 47.62 5.00
Manhattan
New York, NY - Midtown United States SF USD Year 1.00 35.80 70.34 35.80 70.34 4.70
Manhattan
New York, NY - Midtown South United States SF USD Year 1.00 25.87 47.26 25.87 47.26 4.90
Manhattan
Oakland, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 17.80 31.80 17.80 31.80 7.50
Oklahoma City, OK United States SF USD Year 1.00 17.78 17.78 17.78 17.78
Omaha, NE United States SF USD Year 1.00 10.88 19.88 10.88 19.88
Orlando, FL United States SF USD Year 1.00 13.23 24.23 13.23 24.23 8.50
Philadelphia, PA United States SF USD Year 1.00 14.86 26.50 14.86 26.50 8.00
Phoenix, AZ United States SF USD Year 1.00 10.70 23.70 10.70 23.70
Pittsburgh, PA United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.86 22.61 11.86 22.61 8.26
Portland, OR United States SF USD Year 1.00 14.74 24.74 14.74 24.74
Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill,
United States SF USD Year 1.00 23.41 23.41 23.41 23.41
NC
Reno, NV United States SF USD Year 1.00 21.73 21.73 21.73 21.73
Sacramento, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 25.39 32.64 25.39 32.64
San Diego, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 13.82 28.68 13.82 28.68
San Francisco, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 24.71 44.81 24.71 44.81 5.60
San Jose - Silicon Valley United States SF USD Year 1.00 16.61 33.11 16.61 33.11
Savannah, GA United States SF USD Year 1.00 12.15 19.15 12.15 19.15 9.50
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA United States SF USD Year 1.00 20.61 30.63 20.61 30.63 6.20
St. Louis, MO United States SF USD Year 1.00 6.97 17.47 6.97 17.47 9.75
St. Paul, MN United States SF USD Year 1.00 4.08 13.17 4.08 13.17
Stamford, CT United States SF USD Year 1.00 25.34 38.84 25.34 38.84 8.00
Stockton, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 16.88 20.64 16.88 20.64 8.50
Tampa Bay, FL United States SF USD Year 1.00 14.15 23.15 14.15 23.15 8.00
Walnut Creek/Pleasanton, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 27.60 27.60 27.60 27.60 8.00
Washington DC United States SF USD Year 1.00 31.19 53.19 31.19 53.19 5.75
West Palm Beach/Palm Beach
County, FL
United States SF USD Year 1.00 22.25 37.25 22.25 37.25 8.50
White Plains, NY United States SF USD Year 1.00 18.26 32.06 18.26 32.06 8.00
p. 12 | Colliers International