The CONVERGE project launched its CONVERGE Rethinking Globalisation seminar series on May 25th 2011 with this session in Bristol UK - giving info on the latest research into resource burn-off rates, and how they may affect industry in Bristol.

1. How will resource scarcity impact industry
in Bristol?
Alice-Marie Archer, Oliviero Mannu & Julia Ankenbrand
Speaking at the Schumacher Institute for the
Rethinking Globalisation Seminar Series
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2.  “At the end of the day, we are not about to “run
out” of any Nonrenewable Natural Resources; we
are about to run “critically short” of many. This
reality will have a devastating impact on our
industrial lifestyle paradigm” – Chris Clugston for The Oil Drum
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3.  “It was shown that scarcity affected manufacturers through
process disruptions and unexpected increases in expenditures.
Recycling, substitution and dematerialization were actions taken
or encouraged by firms in the manufacturing industry that
reduced the impact of scarcity.These responses take time to
implement, are not available to all and lead to permanent
market changes. … manufacturing firms may not be adequately
appreciating the benefits of recycling, dematerialization and
materials substitution if they do not consider the effects of
increasing scarcity. Moreover, because markets respond slowly to
changes, manufacturers who can respond rapidly to increasing
scarcity because they have a strategy in place can gain a
competitive advantage” – Elina Alonso, MIT, 2010
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4.  “Due to the combination of 100% dependence
on imported supplies, a high concentration of
production in relatively few countries and low
substitutability and recycling rates, the UK is
vulnerable to restrictions in supply of some
metals” – UK Parliamentary Inquiry into Strategic
Metals
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5. Overview
 Introducing The CONVERGE & Prepare For Change Projects
 A Challenge to Bristol’s Industry
 Finite Materials
 Peak Everything
 Geopolitical Situation in general
 Resources & Geopolitics – implications for Bristol
 Our Nonrenewable heart - intro
 Where next?
 Substitution
 Technological advances
 Case Examples
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6. Introducing the CONVERGE Project
 Title: Rethinking globalisation in light of Convergence
 Funded by the EU (FP7) under Collaboration
 4 year research programme
 Focusing on the exploration of ‘Equity within biological
planetary limits’
 8 Partner organizations in 5 countries
 UK – Schumacher Institute, University of Bristol
 Hungary – Szent Istvan University, GreenDependent
 Sweden – University of Lund, The Natural Step
 Iceland – University of Iceland
 India – Social Change and Development
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7. Convergence
 (kn-vûrjns): The point of converging; a meeting
place: e.g. a town at the convergence of two rivers.
 Reduction of resource consumption and unsustainable behaviors in the developed
world while accepting increasing consumption and systematic sustainability in
developing and deprived sectors all within biological planetary limits.
 Borrows from the principles behind ‘contraction and convergence’.
 “progress towards equity within biological
planetary limits”
 Unifying Framework for: Intergenerational equality, Social Justice, Sustainability,
Human Rights, Millenium Development Goals, Systems Science, Global budgeting,
ecological economics
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8. Prepare for Change project
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9. Finite Materials
(from the Global Nonrenewable Natural Resource Scarcity Assessment 2002 - 2008 )
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10. Finite Materials – 2030 Now
Permanent Global NNR Supply Shortfall (by 2030) Probability Summary
(from the Global Non-renewable Natural Resource Scarcity Assessment 2002 - 2008 )
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11. K.V. Ragnarsdottir, H.U. Sverdrup, Deniz Koca:
Dynamic models
 reserves of some key metals
 locations of the ores
 technology they are used for
 degree of recycling
 many metals we rely on will run out in 10-40 years

12. Burn-off time: known mineable reserves divided
by the estimated average annual mining rate
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13. Examples for uses of scarce materials
 Fertilizers
 Phosphorus
 PGM
 Strategic material for digital technology
 REM
 Tantalum
 Telurium
 Silver, Gold
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14. Examples for uses of scarce materials
 Engines / Aerospace
 Titanium
 Tungsten/Wolfram
 Molybdenum
 Aluminium
 Zinc
 Cobalt
 Batteries
 Lithium
 Lead
 Cadmium

15. Interconnections
Nickel
Cobalt
Tellurium Silver
Copper

16. Trajectory
 20 century (Actual)
 In general global NNR supplies kept pace with ever-increasing global demand
 During the pre-recession years of the 21st century (2000-2008), (Actual)
 annual global NNR supplies decreased or even go negative compared to 20th
century
 annual global price levels increase
 annual global NNR supplies increasingly unable to keep pace with ever-increasing
global demand.
 2030 (Projected)
 Many Resources enter permanent supply shortfall
 Annual global price levels increase
 Geopolitical instability around increasingly valuable materials
 Increased inequality in geographical allocation of resources
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17. Bristol makes / processes / distributes
 Glass – Thallium, Zinc, Lead, Cobalt, Tantalum
 Engines – Bauxite, Iron Ore, Molybdenum, Titanium, Zinc, Cobalt
 Aircraft/Aerospace – Gold, Tantalum, Titanium
 Industrial Coatings – Chromium, Silver, Zinc
 Plastics and Rubber (Packaging) – Oil, Titanium, Tellurium
 Electronics – Tantalum, Molybdenum, REM
 Food – Phosphorus, PGM, Molybdenum
 Pharmaceutical Industry, Cosmetics – Silver, Zinc, PGM
 Automotives and –parts (i.e. catalyser) – PGM, Lead
 Tobacco Products – Phosphorus
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18. Geopolitical situation
 Several disturbing factors:
 Growing demand pressure from emerging economies
 Low elasticity, increase the risk of the occurrence of crises
(rush for tantalum in 2000 due to the boom of mobile
phones)
 Concentration of the production of many materials in a
small number of countries
 Difficulty in acceding to various markets as industrial
development strategies are implemented by means of trade
taxation and investments instruments, particularly by
developing countries
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19. Geopolitical Situation
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20. Case Studies – Geopolitical Perspective
 Rare Earth Materials (REM)
 Phosphorus
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22. Strategic Transition
 Recycling
 Substitution
 Dematerialisation
 Demand side management (consumer end)
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23. Recycling - Auralite, Sweden
 Resource scarcity challenge faced
 Access to Raw Glass.
 Raw Glass and other components necessary for production of fluorescent lightbulbs getting
more expensive
 Steps taken
 In House Recycling Plant (MRT)
 Collection of post consumer waste
 Recycling of Mercury
 Phosphorescents
 Glass
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24. Recycling - Rolls Royce
 Resource Scarcity Challenge
 Metals
 Steps Taken
 The company has established a Global Revert Consortium, involving its own manufacturing
facilities, overhaul shops, suppliers and partners in recycling metal turnings, foundry waste and
unserviceable engine parts, which contain rare metals.
 Agreements with key suppliers require them to recover revert from machining and forging
processes to retain the metal within their supply chain.
 Employs a specialist third party to securely segregate, collect and process revert from
facilities and suppliers around the world.
 Material undergoes several specialist processes to recover precious metals and clean up the
parent metal so it is suitable for re-melting into the same alloy.
 Recovery also means that Rolls-Royce pays less for raw materials, mills can rely on them as a
source of their raw material and they are not exposed to as much market price volatility and
metal scarcity.
 The company’s designers have developed alloys that halve the amount of rare earth elements
required in some of the company’s jet engine parts.
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25. Substitution - Electrolux
 Resource Scarcity Challenge
 Cadium for batteries, Petrol / Diesel for both product distribution and consumer use, Iron
Ore (Steel) in product casing and electronics
 Steps Taken
 Creation of a portable vacuum that uses cadmium-free rechargeable batteries
 The use of canola oil, a biodegradable vegetable oil, in its chain saws
 Utilization of the railway system (more fuel-efficient than trucking) for 75% of product
distribution in Europe
 Brush cutters and trimmers that consume 30-35% less fuel than earlier models
 Use of Aluminum (from comparatively available Bauxite) over other metals in product casings
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26. Substitution - Ikea
 Resource Scarcity Challenge
 Chromium for metal surface treatments
 Steps Taken
 Use of powder lacquer is substantially reducing the use of chromium for metal surface
treatment
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27. Dematerialization – Interface
 Resource scarcity challenge faced
 High levels of waste carpeting
 Steps taken
 Leasing of Carpets
 Firm can restore carpet continuously, replacing only the worn sections
 Use of Solenium - carpet lasts four times longer than normal carpets
and require 40% less material; in other words, Solenium has enabled
Interface to reduce materials intensity in its carpets by more than
85%
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28. Dematerialization – ULSAC Consortium
 Resource scarcity challenge faced
 steel is heavy, capital-intensive, and slow to tool— tooling for
an all-new body and chassis can exceed $1 billion. In fact, the
use of steel in two major industrial activities, namely,
construction and automobile manufacture, has been in decline.
 Steps taken
 Introduction of Ultralight Steel initiated with the prototyping of complete frameless door structure in 2000.
The door structure featured a high and ultra high strength steel tubularframe and a stamped outer panel of
0.7 mm 260 steel. The complete door structure weighed 10.47 kg (normalized mass, 13.27 kg/m2). This is 22
% lighter than the framed door best-in-class benchmark and 42 percent lighter than the average frameless
door used as a Validation Phase benchmark. This was achieved without compromising safety or structural
performance and at no cost penalty. The ULSAC frameless door with stamped outer panel weighs just 10.47
kg. This is 1.76 kg below the target mass of 12.23 kg o ULSAC door achieved 33 % mass savings over the
average benchmark from a wide range of door structures
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29. Is this an issue?
 Do we need to be strategic?
 Does material security require a strategic view from industry
now?
 Who are the stakeholders?
 Or do we need to be reactive?
 concerns be addressed by the “invisible hand” of the market
whereby:
 Consumers to reduce demand by using the material more efficiently
 Consumers and competitors to locate substitute materials that cost
less but perform equally well
 Producers to increase production by ramping up existing production,
locating new raw material sources, technological innovation to
increase yields from existing or previously uneconomic sources
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30. Discussion session
 What would the consequences of scarcity be in Bristol?
 What steps could the city be taking?
 What are the human / ethical / fairness impacts of
scarcity?
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31. Sources / Further Reading
 ECONOMICALLY CRITICAL MATERIALS - http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/raw-materials/critical/index_en.htm
 PEAK EVERYTHING: WAKING UP TO THE CENTURY OF DECLINES– Richard Heinberg
://www.amazon.co.uk/Peak-Everything-Waking-Century-Declines/dp/B0042RUF2K/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1305799362&sr=1-2
 RESOURCES, SCARCITY, GROWTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT - Robert U. Ayres - http://ec.europa.eu/environment/enveco/waste/pdf/ayres.pdf
 Increasing Global Nonrenewable Natural Resource Scarcity—Prelude to Global Societal Collapse - Chris Clugston
 http://www.theoildrum.com/files/Increasing%20Global%20Nonrenewable%20Natural%20Resource%20Scarcity%20-%20Draft.pdf

 Economics of Natural Resource Scarcity:The State of the Debate - Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer - http://www.rff.org/documents/RFF-DP-05-14.pdf

 Resource Scarcity: Responding to the Security Challenge - Richard A. Matthews
 http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/F1AD443C34D35A728525743300667988-IPI_Resource%20Scarcity.pdf

 Blood and Soil? Resource Scarcity and Internal Armed Conflict Revisited - OLE MAGNUS THEISEN - http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/45/6/801
 Material scarcity from the perspective of manufacturing firms : case studies of platinum and cobalt - Elisa Alonso (Elisa Yun Han) -
http://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/59210
 Economics of technological change and the natural environment: How effective are innovations as a remedy for resource scarcity? – Lucas
Bretschger - Ecological Economics 54 (2005) 148 – 163
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32. Sources / Further Reading
 Rarer still? Supply risks of rare earth elements –Paul Suff for The Environmentalist (2011)
- http://www.environmentalistonline.com/article/2011-03-17/rarer-still-supply-risks-of-rare-earth-elements
 Decoupling Resource Use and Environmental Impacts from Economic Growth - UNEP (2011)
http://www.unep.org/resourcepanel/Portals/24102/PDFs/DecouplingReport_small.pdf
 Video – Biomimicry in Action - http://www.ted.com/talks/janine_benyus_biomimicry_in_action.html
 COMMODITY MINE - CommodityMine is your comprehensive news and information source. In addition to the latest prices, you can find in-depth commodity
news, a list of upcoming mining events and even career information. The All Charts page allows you to compare price changes for gold, silver, copper and other
commodities over a variety of time periods. Dynamic Charting allows to you adjust individual commodity timelines according to weight and currency -
http://www.infomine.com/commodities/
 USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2011 - http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/2011/mcs2011.pdf
 Strategically Important Metals - http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmsctech/writev/metals/sim13.htm
 Resource efficiency knowledge network - http://www.oakdenehollins.co.uk/pdf/material_security.pdf
 Dematerialisation for Urban Waste Reduction
- http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=5&ved=0CDUQFjAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.leidenuniv.nl%2Fcml%2Fssp%2Fpublications
%2Fwp2001-014.pdf&rct=j&q=dematerialisation
%20example&ei=ArvbTYKBF47HswbelZztDg&usg=AFQjCNG9DWdgOfE-0PO4IFnbyzLAwTSgfQ&sig2=0Tt6i7Z5n3mIgovRTut7Bg&cad=rja
 Web based survey of trends in Dematerialisation -
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CBkQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fcss.snre.umich.edu%2Fcss_doc
%2FCSS01-17.pdf&rct=j&q=nanotechnology%20dematerialisation&ei=Mr3bTd6sH8-Rswb2-
uXfDg&usg=AFQjCNGHffUy2iJ8KatrnMNRyFEmWgUL1g&sig2=Kval_bnPBV_XZe8eyt2Juw&cad=rja
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33. A Challenge to Bristol’s Industry
 “Business is the largest, wealthiest, most pervasive
institution on Earth… It must take the lead in
directing the Earth away from collapse, and toward
sustainability. ...” - Paul Hawken in The Ecology
of Commerce
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