1. Climate change – beyond IPCC
Alan Rodger
Introduction
Some examples of change
Extreme events
Predicting the future
Surprises

3. Astronomical
Atmosphere
Hydrosphere Geosphere
Sun Earth
Cryosphere Biosphere
Anthropo-
sphere
Earth System

4. Astronomical
Atmosphere
Cultural
Hydrosphere
Economics Geosphere
Political
Sun Earth
Cryosphere
Social Biosphere
Technology
Well being
Anthropo-
Water Science
sphere
Food
Shelter
Fuel
Health
Security
Earth System

5. The climate system
IPCC, 2007

6. IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report
Climate Change 2007
• Atmospheric GHG concentrations far exceed
levels of last 650,000y as a result of human
emissions
• Warming of the climate system is
“Unequivocal”
• Climate forcing primarily human (x10 solar)
• Agreed by delegates of 113 nations
IPCC does not capture non linear effects well

7. European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA)
Ice cores – the gold standard climate change record?
60
°S
Dronning
Maud Land EU/ESF project
70
1996-2006
°S
Berkner Dome F Drilling depth of 3.27km
Island
~890 000 years old
80
°S
Byrd Vostok
Siple Dome
Law Dome
Taylor Dome C
Dome
0km 1,000km 2,000km

8. Ice core processing and analysis

9. Dome C Antarctica Ice Core
Now – 386 ppm
Luthi et al., Nature, 15 May 2008
Siegenthaler et al., Science 2005 (EPICA gas consortium)

10. Global
Temperature
• Increase ~0.8°C over the last century
• 2007 was 8th warmest year on record
• 12 of the 13 warmest years on record occurred since 1995
• 2001-2007 was 0.21°C warmer than 1991-2000
data source: Climatic Research Unit

11. China
Precipitation 1961-2002
Blue: positive trend;
Red: negative
Temperatures 1951-2001
18 more growing days in the Qinghai-
Tibetan Plateau
500 hours fewer sunshine in North China
Plain compared with 50 years ago

12. Surface
Temperature Rise
Polar amplification

13. The Key Science Issues
for Polar Regions
• Greatest uncertainty in global sea level rise
• World’s largest carbon sinks, and with the potential for surprise
(methane/hydrates)
• Critical role of polar ecosystems and biodiversity in the maintenance of the
earth system
• The major driver of global ocean system, and hence fundamental to
predicting world’s weather
• Understanding how the planet works – the polar component

14. Antarctic Peninsula Glacier Responses
Peninsula 1993-2003
Flow rate of over 300 glaciers
12% increase in glacier speed
Sea level rise: 0.16 ± 0.06 mm /y
Pritchard and Vaughan, 2007
244 glaciers - 87% have retreated over last 50y
Cook et al., 2005

15. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet and sea level rise
Ice-thickness change 1992-2003
Major discharges
Pine Island, Thwaites and
Smith Glaciers

16. Bed elevation in Greenland and Antarctica
+2000
0
-2000
Bamber & Vaughan, BEDMAP.

17. West Antarctica – last of the great marine ice sheets
Grounded below sea level
ICE
OCEAN
After G Clarke LITHOSPHERE

18. Greenland is melting!
Dublin Lecture no. 6 18 11 Mar 2008

19. Arctic sea ice Median Sept. Extent
09.09.2008 1979-2000
IMPACTS
Shorter trade routes
Easier access to oil and gas
Ocean circulation
Ecosystems
11 Mar 2008 Dublin Lecture no. 6 19

20. World’s Petroleum Potential
Verdens uoppdagede
petroleumspotensiale
North
N. Afrika
Rest Africa,
Resten av
Kaspihavet verden East
Middle 7
of
Midt-Østen Arktis
World
Arctic
8
6
5
1. Barents Sea 1
2. 1: Southern Kara Sea
Barentshavet
3
4
2: and Western Siberia
Sørlige Karahavet og Vest-Sibir
3: Nordlige Karahavet
3. 4: Northern Kara Sea
Laptevhavet
2
4. 5: Laptev Sea
Øst-Sibirhavet
6: Chuchihavet
5. 7: East North Slope Sea
Alaska Siberian
8: Øst-Grønnland
6. Chukchi Sea
7. Alaska North Slope
8. East Greenland

21. Sea Level Rise - Tide Gauge Observations
150
3.2 mm/year
100
2.0 mm/year
50
ΔMSL (mm)
0
0.8 mm/year
-50
Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year
-100
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Source: Church and White, 2006
Source: Church and White, 2006

22. Sea level trends between January 1993 and December
1999 from satellite data in mm/year
Red = sea level rise : Blue = sea level fall

23. Tuvalu 8°S, 179°E
• Land area 26 square kilometres
• Population 4492
• Third least populated independent country
• Second smallest member of the UN
• Tuvalu has very poor land; soil is hardly usable
• Almost no reliable supply of drinking water

24. Sea level rise and the EU
Within 500 m of the coast
• 14% of population (70 m people)
• economic assets located of the EU's coastline valued of
€1,000B
. • 47,500 km2 of sites of high ecological value
15 countries have substantial coasts that are open to
the world’s oceans
• coastal flooding,
• increased rates of erosion
• destruction of natural sea defences
• threats to human lives and livelihoods
Annual expense of protection €3.2 billion and rising non-
linearly
Managed retreat only option in some areas

25. Extreme events

26. effect of the 2003 heat wave in Europe
Ciais et al., Nature 2005

27. Hurricane
frequency not
changing Gustav
Hanna
Karina
Ike
Josephine
3 September 2008 Katrina from space

28. Hurricane intensity is increasing
Webster, et al.,
Science 2005
Number of hurricanes
unchanged
Katrina from space

29. Cyclone Nargis hits Burma May 2008
60% of rice from Irrawaddy Delta
Mangroves swamps cleared for crops - protection lost
Crops destroyed by storm surge
The saltiest areas will have to be drained and flushed with
fresh water before they can be re-planted
Draining a challenge as designed to hold water

30. Heavier precipitation,
more intense and longer droughts….

31. Drought areas already expanding and
predicted to expand further
Percentage of world's land area in drought
50
40
Percentage in drought
30
20
10
0 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Source: Burke, EJ and SJ Brown. Modelling the recent evolution of global drought and
projections for the 21st century. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2006

32. Desertification
Vulnerable
Low
Moderate
High
Very high

33. IPCC Temperature
Projections

34. Uncertainties
in prediction
1. Future emissions are not known
2. Computer models are not perfect
3. Natural variability of climate occurs
Therefore
Improve understanding and modelling of the climate system
Quantify uncertainty: probabilistic forecasts
Incorporate probabilistic forecasts into decision making tools

35. The carbon cycle
2000-2005 CO2 budget (GtC/y)
atmosphere
fossil fuel
4.2
emissions land use land
change sink
7.2 1.5
2.3
ocean
sink
2.2
geological
reservoirs
Natural and man-made sources and sinks changing
Canadell et al. 2007

36. fossil fuel CO2 emissions for the world
CO2 emissions increase
1990s 1.3% y-1
2000-2006 3.3% y-1
CO2 growth rate
65±16% from increasing global economic activity
17±6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy
18±15% from the increase in airborne fraction
Canadell et at., PNAS, 2007
Raupach et al., 2007

37. Less carbon draw down from the atmosphere into the oceans
Cause: Increase in Southern Ocean
winds
Le Quéré et al., Science, 2007

38. The other carbon problem 1- ocean acidification
800 ppm
CO2 is corrosive to the shells of many marine organisms
Phytoplankton assemblages will change

39. The other carbon problem 2 - methane
Methane from the tundra
Methane from farming
800 ppm
More carbon locked up in
methane than in oil and gas
Methane from the ocean

40. 1989 2003 Water
Aral Sea
Surface area
17,160 km² (2004, three lakes)
28,687 km² (1998, two lakes)
68,000 km² (1960, one lake)
Fivefold increase in salinity
Weapons testing
Wind blown salt damages crops
Polluted drinking water
Salt and dust laden air causing
health problems
“The Aral Sea, the worst man-made environmental disaster” says UN

41. Water
Lack of melting snow
Changes in precipitation – very hard to predict
Change of rainfall in 2090
compared with 1990

42. Conclusions
• The Earth system is highly coupled
• Change occurring everywhere
Rates of change increasing
Fastest at the poles
Rate of change unprecedented
Humans are affecting the planet
• IPCC - conservative
• Predicting the future: the big challenge
• BUT challenge the climate scientist

44. Probabilistic
forecasts

45. geoengineering options
Keith, Nature, 2001
Problems:
• difficult to scale up
• difficult to prove efficiency
• difficult to reverse
• possible side-effects
• decades of research needed

46. Model
Improvements

47. The economics of ecosystems and biodiversity
European Commission, 2008

48. The glacial cycle
Temperature rises a little because of the
orbit of the Earth
Warmer waters cannot dissolve as much CO2
Increase in temperature
Increase CO2 leads to more heating
Other feedbacks
increase phytoplankton at high latitudes
less sea ice

49. Earth‘s Orbit
Earth‘s
Milankovitch cycles
Temperature precedes CO2

51. Variations/uncertainties
Long term – cryosphere years/decades - m
Storm surges – pressure/winds 1–5 days - up to 5 m
Ocean surface topography (changes in water density
and currents) - days to weeks - up to 1 m
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - up to 0.6 m
River runoff/floods - 2 months - 1 m
Seasonal water density changes (temperature/
salinity) - 6 months 0.2 m
Sea-Level Rise Could Wipe Out Bangladesh by 2100
Proudman Oceanography Laboratory, 2008
X 4 IPCC estimates of sea level rise

52. 2005 January 2006
Serengeti

54. Unexpected high diversity in the Southern Ocean deep sea:
> 1400 species, > 700 new, undescribed species
Isothermal environment
Southern Ocean warming
Animals susceptible to change
South Sandwich Trench 6348 m
© Diaz & Carpenter, VIMS

55. Impacts of change on the
Antarctic Peninsula

56. Natural
Variability
Variability on long term trends

57. Long term and abrupt climate change
Methane from tundra
Methane hydrates

59. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has
been established by WMO and UNEP to assess scientific,
technical and socio-economic information relevant for the
understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and
options for adaptation and mitigation.

60. Projected patterns of precipitation changes
2090/2099 : 1980/1999
Dec-Feb Jun-Aug
Stippled areas: uncertain
40% of the world’s food supply requires irrigation
11 Mar 2008 Dublin Lecture no. 6 60

61. Socolow

62. Zachos et al. 2008

63. atmospheric CO2 (ppm)
385 2008
1958
280 1850
180
650 thousand years Siegenthaler et al. 2006

64. Atmospheric Emissions from Net emissions from Oceanic Missing
= + - -
increase fossil fuels changes in land use uptake carbon sink
3.2 (±0.2) = 6.3 (±0.4) + 2.2 (±0.8) - 2.4 (±0.7) - 2.9 (±1.1)

65. Plantations in Campo-Maan in Cameroon The drying up of Lake Faguibine in Mali.
now dominate the landscape (right) When the lake was full (left) it was amongst
30 years ago the forest appears the largest lakes in Africa but in the 1990s
largely intact it dried up completely (right)
Declining water levels in Lake Chad. The disappearing Damietta Promontory in
Persistent droughts and increased Egypt. The promontory has eroded
agricultural irrigation have reduced the dramatically in the last 30 years as waves and
Lake’s extent in the past 35 years to currents have stripped its sands faster than
one tenth of its former state the river can replenish them

66. Vast iceberg breaks off Wilkins
Ice Shelf in Antarctic
28 Feb 2008
Vaughan et al., 2008
Antarctic ice shelf 'hanging by a thread'
17 March 2008

67. Ecosystems
Since 1900 50% of the world’s wetlands have
Ecosystem services are the been lost
benefits that people obtain
from ecosystems 30% of coral reefs have been seriously
damaged through fishing, pollution, disease
and coral bleaching
Examples include food,
freshwater, timber, climate
regulation, protection from In the past two decades 35% of mangroves
natural hazards, erosion have disappeared
control, pharmaceutical
ingredients, clean air Rates of species extinction are 1000 times
recreation etc. more rapid than the natural rate
The economics of ecosystems and biodiversity
European Commission, 2008

68. Southern Ocean Ecosystem

69. Ocean
ecosystems
High productivity
in the Southern
Ocean
Least exploited
fishery

72. The unknown
The deep sea
Lakes and river systems
under the ice

73. The carbon cycle
Woods Hole Research Centre, 2007

74. Hudson Mountain Subglacial Volcano
Estimated date of eruption - 220 BC
King et al, in prep.

75. Is the IPCC
Conservative?
Comparison of reality with
IPCC 2001 predictions
Rahmstorf et al. 2007

76. BAS Mission
• to undertake a world-class programme of
science
• to sustain for the UK an active and
influential regional presence, and a
leadership role in Antarctic affairs

77. Broader
Context

79. BAS in Summary
60 yr history
Approx 500 staff
Annual budget approx £40 M
Science Logistics
Stations

80. The greenhouse effect – a misnomer?
The ‘greenhouse’ effect has been understood Transmission of visible
for nearly 200 years light and infrared
radiation the same
The ‘natural’ CO2 keeps the Earth around 30°C
warmer than it would otherwise be Greenhouses work by
lack of convection

81. Survey by BAS and
University of
Texas, 2005

82. Pine Island
Season 2006-07
Ice accessible for discharge
~1.5m msl equivalent

83. Harlequin Ladybird
2004 2005 2006
2007

84. Impacts of climate change and mankind
2000
Wandering albatross
1600
1200
- 1% decline p.a. (pre-1997) 800
- 4% decline p.a. (post-1997)
1960
1964
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
80% reduction of krill in 30 years – key food for birds, seals and whales
By catch

85. Ecology
Evolution
Physiology and
molecular processes

86. Precipitation changes Frost changes

87. Gentoo penguin breeding success at Bird Island
Years of extremely low performance
1.0
Breeding Success at Bird Island
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1985 1990 1995 2000
Year

88. Long term trend
1976-2004
The interconnected world

89. Southern
Ocean
Ecosystem
• Clear link between warm conditions
and breeding failure in penguins,
seals and whales
• Long-term decline in krill abundance
• New interest in krill fishing -
aquaculture, pharma and
neutraceuticals
• The largest under-exploited protein
resource - managing sustainable
fishing critical

90. Lake Faguibine, Mali
1974 2005
590 km 2 in 1974 traditional livelihoods of fishing,
Red= vegetation agriculture, and livestock herding
became impractical

91. Tipping points
Tipping points
Subsystems indicated could exhibit threshold-type behaviour in response to
anthropogenic climate forcing, where a small perturbation at a critical point
qualitatively alters the future fate of the system.
Lenton, T. M. et al. (2008) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 105, 1786-1793

92. Fisheries
In 2002 fish provided more than 2.6 billion people with at least 20 percent of
their average per capita animal protein intake
• Over exploitation
• Global problem
• Ecosystem change
• By-catch
Convention on the Conservation of
Antarctic Marine Living Resources

93. CO2 emissions (GtC/y)
World
Carbon dioxide increases
CO2 emissions increase
N. America -1
1990s 1.3% y
2000-2006 3.3% y-1
W. EU
CO2 growth rate
65±16% from increasing global economic activity
17±6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy
18±15% from the increase in airborne fraction
China
Canadell et at., PNAS, 2007
India
data source: CDIAC and EIA