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Q4 2011 - Columbus Retail
1. Q4 2011 | RETAIL
GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
RETAIL TRENDS REPORT
Slow Growth Continues
COLUMBUS REGION OVERVIEW
The Columbus retail market finished the fourth quarter of 2011 with moderate positive absorption of
108,000 square feet. This is the seventh consecutive quarter of positive absorption beginning in the
second quarter of 2010. Difficulty getting financing is creating pressure for tenants, but retailers also
seem to be in a wait-and-see mode as they consider further news about the economy’s direction. In
economic data recently released, many factors are helping to illustrate the direction of the economy.
For example, the U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in December according to the jobs report.
MARKET INDICATORS Another example is The Conference Board’s analysis of leading economic indicators which showed
a 0.4 percent growth that suggests the economy will grow for the next three to six months.
Q4 Q1
2011 2012*
FORECASTS AND REFLECTIONS
• Theretail vacancy rate has steadily decreased million and the 100,000-square-foot lifestyle
VACANCY
through leasing as well as expansion of center at 4305 West Dublin Granville Road for
NET ABSORPTION product, dipping 20 basis points from the third $6.1 million.
quarter 2011 to 11.0 percent. • Inconstruction news, a number of smaller
CONSTRUCTION —
• A number of larger retail outlets were locations are underway including IHOP and
RENTAL RATES — transferred this quarter including the Hills Market. Construction continues for the
443,000-square-foot power center 1299 40,000-square-foot New Market Mall and the
*Projected change to following quarter
Polaris Parkway for $80 million. Other 27,000-square-foot Earth Fare organic
transfers include the 120,000-square-foot strip grocery in Polaris.
center 55 Meadow Park Avenue for $19.5
RENTAL RATES
STEADILY UPWARD VACANCY RATE OVER COMPLETIONS AND ABSORPTIONS
Asking Rates
The average asking
1,200,000 14% rental rates increased in
$16.00 strip and neighborhood
1,000,000
12% but decreased in
Completions and Absorptions
$14.00 800,000
community. Asking
$12.00 600,000 10% rates for different
Vacancy Rate
400,000 8% property types continue
$10.00
200,000 to show the disparate
$8.00 ‐ 6% value to tenants and the
2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q financial situations of
(200,000) 4%
$6.00
08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 larger landlords who are
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q (400,000) able to wait out the
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 2%
(600,000) appropriate tenants.
Strip Neighborhood Community
(800,000) 0%
Completions Absorption Vacancy Rate
www.colliers.com/columbus
2. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q4 2011 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
CONSTRUCTION underway at New Market Mall (7588-7674 New
Delaware County
Currently, there are a few projects under Market Center Way). Organic grocer, Earth Fare,
Union
County development that are smaller than we have seen continues with construction of their
North / in the past few quarters with larger retailers 27,000-square-foot space in Polaris.
Licking
Northwest
Northeast
County such as Rave Theaters and Kohl’s. Liberty
Crossing, a roughly 30,000-square-foot MARKET ACTIVITY
community center is underway at 4020-4060 Market Activity Volume is the sum of the
Madison CBD Powell Road. No future tenants have been listed. absolute value of each absorption change in the
County
Southeast Shoppes at Westerville Road on the south-west market and it tells us a little more about what
Southwest
corner of Innis Road and Westerville Road is a exactly happened to the market behind the
Fairfield
County 15,000-square-foot convenience/strip center absorption number. The Market Activity Volume
Pickaway County currently under construction. No future tenants was slightly more than 160,000 square feet.
have been listed. The fourth quarter of 2011 was the slowest
The Columbus retail market includes 11
quarter since third quarter 2006, as measured
suburban submarkets and the Central The future site of Hills Market is an 11,000-square- by total market volume.
Business District. A total inventory of 55 foot general/street retail in the central market at
million square feet of space with only 1 95 North Grant Avenue. IHOP is setting up shop The typical tenant in the market currently is
million of that space in the CBD. at 5500 Renner Road. The 10,000-square-foot quick serve restaurants and casual dining.
space will be a stand-alone restaurant space. Smaller, well-located shop space seems to be in
648-656 Grandview Avenue is a 10,000-square- high demand as well. Nervous tenants and
foot convenience/strip center currently under availability of money from the lenders has
construction in the central market. No word on prevented deals from closing.
future tenants. 40,000 square feet is still
UPDATE New Supply, Absorption and Vacancy Rates
SALES ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS SALES DATE SALE PRICE SIZE SF GRANTOR GRANTEE PRICE / SF TYPE SUBMARKET
1299 Polaris Parkway December $80,000,000 443,165 Glimcher Realty Trust DDR $180.52 Power Center Northeast
55 Meadow Park Avenue October $19,510,000 120,000 Worthington 1 LLC Cole RE Investments $162.58 Strip North
Delaware
County
4305 W Dublin Granville December $6,125,000 103,000 Fifth Third Bank Mr Tsarr Owner LLC $59.47 Lifestyle Northwest
Road Center
3599 Park Mill Run Drive December $5,504,000 127,058 Cadle Company A&C Ventures Inc $43.32 Super Northwest
4675 Karl Road November $721,000 58,994 Chesrown Norman L TR KM 22 Investments LLC $12.22 Automotive Northeast
8139 East Broad Street December $2,120,000 4,092 One Reynoldsburg Co. CK Broad LLC $518.08 Stand-alone -
LEASE ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS LEASE SF TOTAL SIZE LESSEE ASKING PRICE TYPE SUBMARKET
1821 Henderson Road 33,000 160,702 Show & Sell Merchandise - Community Northwest
104 Vine Street 10,000 10,000 - $12.00 Restaurant Central
5504 Livingston Avenue 9,000 46,362 Bingo hall $4.67 Strip Southeast
1004 Memorial Drive 7,355 7,355 Grover Motor Sales $7.34 Automotive Fairfield
5091 Main Street 7,320 45,395 Payless Furniture - Strip Southeast
5796 Karl Road 6,350 6,350 -- $7.95 Restaurant Northwest
2831 Olentangy River Road 6,000 130,600 Sunspot Tanning $14.00 Anchored Strip Northwest
3703 Broad Street 5,250 489,617 - $12.00 Power Center Southeast
5091 Main Street 5,100 45,395 Everything Goes $13.50 Strip Southeast
695 Hill Road 4,104 4,104 - $14.62 Freestanding Fairfield
471 Morrison Road 4,000 16,069 - $13.00 Strip Northeast
P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
3. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q4 2011 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
UPDATE Market Comparisons
RETAIL MARKET
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
SUBMARKET Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions Neighborhood Power
CBD 986,975 5,810 0.6 17,108 46,293 21,000 - - -
FAIRFIELD 3,418,174 447,642 13.1 (6,700) (2,875) - - $10.06 -
LICKING 3,250,240 329,901 10.2 - (7,097) - - $8.97 -
MADISON 443,304 9,285 2.1 - (4,000) - - $10.00 -
NORTH DELAWARE 1,780,118 246,230 13.8 45,640 52,635 - - $11.08 $22.50
NORTHEAST 15,437,110 1,013,801 6.6 50,409 107,925 15,000 - $13.27 $10.00
NORTHWEST 13,017,379 1,101,967 8.5 58,487 39,454 107,000 - $12.12 $20.00
PICKAWAY 694,724 17,582 2.5 - (6,615) - - $8.50 -
SOUTHEAST 9,459,758 1,291,195 13.6 (41,132) 72,483 - - $7.98 $19.50
SOUTHWEST 6,905,523 1,682,354 24.4 (16,623) 155,051 - - $8.57 $7.53
UNION 1,157,257 46,752 4.0 900 (175) - - - $18.00
TOTALS 56,550,562 6,192,519 11.0 108,089 453,079 143,000 - $10.48 $12.50
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
PROPERTY TYPE Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions
COMMUNITY 8,999,075 1,121,862 12.5 (2,554) 56,382 30,000 - $12.69
FREE-STANDING 7,990,369 582,426 7.3 (33,146) (13,178) 58,000 - $7.02
NEIGHBORHOOD 17,397,813 2,390,797 13.7 106,908 89,819 - - $10.52
OTHER 27,000 4,610 17.1 - 4,010 - - -
OUTLET 184,000 - 0.0 - - - - -
POWER 5,272,202 286,627 5.4 - 167,293 - - $12.50
REGIONAL 3,828,626 456,714 11.9 (17,552) 79,801 40,000 - $9.54
SPECIALTY 250,000 - 0.0 17,108 37,938 - - -
STRIP 5,448,505 700,128 12.8 37,325 26,669 15,000 - $11.63
SUPER REGIONAL 6,530,997 648,155 9.9 - - - - -
URBAN 621,975 1,200 0.2 - 4,345 - - -
TOTALS 56,550,562 6,192,519 11.0 108,089 453,079 142,000 - $10.70
QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
QUARTER, YEAR Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions Neighborhood Power
Q3, 2011 56,491,260 6,300,608 11.2 118,454 344,990 67,000 109,000 $12.05 $10.35
Q2, 2011 56,392,260 6,425,462 11.4 30,507 226,536 109,000 240,000 $11.43 $18.31
Q1, 2011 55,896,613 6,439,929 11.5 195,989 195,989 336,000 255,647 $11.46 $17.89
Q4, 2010 56,019,350 6,663,024 11.9 57,808 274,518 541,647 110,000 $11.05 $12.50
MINIMUM WAGE
The minimum wage will be increased
across Ohio by $.30 to $7.70 effective
January 1, 2012. The minimum wage
for tipped employees will climb 15
cents to $3.85 an hour. The rise is a
part of a scheduled increase tied to
consumer prices.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
4. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q4 2011 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
CBD retailers is less fierce than higher populated
The Central Business District (CBD) had positive areas of Columbus. Marginal vacancy changes
absorption of more than 17,000 square feet. occurred in Union county. 512 offices in
Leases included Big Mama’s Playhouse and US
Hair at the South Campus Gateway. FUNDAMENTALS
61 countries on
Three sources are instructive for retail consumer 6 continents
NORTH activity: the consumer confidence index; a
The north submarkets include Northwest, weekly poll conducted by Gallup; the Beige Book United States: 125
produced by the Federal Reserve Bank semi- Canada: 38
Northeast, and North Delaware. In North
Latin America: 18
Delaware Do It Best Hardware and Carquest quarterly. Asia Pacific: 214
took 43,000 square feet at Big Walnut Plaza. EMEA: 117
The consumer confidence index is produced by
• $1.5 billion in annual revenue
In the Northwest, Show & Sell Merchandise took The Conference Board and is a survey of how
confident consumers are in the current economic • 978.6 million square feet under
33,000 square feet in two suites at Arlington
management
Square (1821 Henderson Road). Worthington conditions by their spending and saving habits.
In January, the index was 61.1, increasing by • Over 12,500 professionals
Square (64 Wilson Bridge Road) showed heavy
activity occurred at with more than 26,000 roughly 15.7 basis points from 45.4 in September,
square feet of positive absorption. Two tenants the end of third quarter. In December, the index GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
expanded and there were four new tenants: had a year-high peak of 64.8. As a guide, the Richard B. Schuen SIOR CCIM
Learning Expressions, Bill’s Buckeye Stuff, index was 112.5 in July 2007, six months before CEO | Principal | Columbus
8800 Lyra Drive
Worthington Craft Guild and Simply Baby ‘n Me. beginning of the recession.
Suite #150
Sunspot Tanning also took 6,000 square feet at Columbus, Ohio, 43240
University City Shopping Center, 2831 Olentangy Gallup’s consumer spending measure tracks the TEL +1 614 410 5612
River Road. average dollar amount Americans report
spending or charging on a daily basis, not
In the Northeast, there was more than 50,000 counting the purchase of a home, motor vehicle, Leslie Hobbs
Marketing and Research Manager
square feet of positive absorption. Roses Variety or normal household bills. Over the three month
8800 Lyra Drive
Wholesale leased more than 23,000 square feet period between October and December the 14- Suite #150
of Granville Center, 1481 Dublin Granville Road. day rolling average rose slightly from $63 to $64 Columbus, Ohio, 43240
Parties on the Square Hall leased 10,600 square with a high of $81 on December 23. The high TEL +1 614 410 5640
feet at Columbus Square, 5727 Emporium Drive. mark of the 3-day rolling average was also on
Other tenants taking space across the Northeast “black friday”, November 28, at $103. There was
were Salon Lofts, Westerville Carryout, Exertion very little variation over the three month period Jonathan Badgley
Research Analyst
Training and Eden Pure. as reported retail sales did not grow substantially.
175 South Third Street
Suite # 285
SOUTH The Cleveland Federal Reserve reports on Columbus, Ohio 43201
The southern submarkets are Southeast and consumer spending twice a quarter in the Beige TEL +1 614 437 4495
Southwest. In the Southeast, Barrel 44 leased Book. The data for these reports comes from
more than 9,000 square feet in the Bexley qualitative surveys of retailers in the fourth
Square, 2212 Main Street, and a bingo hall district, which includes Columbus. In January,
leased 9,000 square feet at 5504-5532 East the reserve bank reported that retailers indicated
Livingston Avenue. sales were stable or slightly higher relative to
October sales. Electronics and home furnishings This document/email has been prepared by Colliers
International for advertising purposes. Colliers
EAST were better than expected while consumers held International statistics and data are audited annually and
back from purchasing cold-weather related may result in revisions to previously reported quarterly
The eastern submarkets are Licking and Fairfield and final year-end figures. Sources include Columbus
items. Retailers expressed caution about 2012
Counties. There were no substantial changes in Dispatch, Business First, Xceligent, Wall Street Journal,
given the fragility of household balance sheets. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic
these submarkets this quarter. Analysis, Gallup and the Cleveland Federal Reserve.
Inventories were categorized as good except for
apparel items which are higher than desired.
WEST
Any outlays planned for 2012 will mainly be for
The western submarkets include Union and technology enhancements and remodeling.
Madison Counties. Low population in these Other than seasonal hiring, employment changed
submarkets means that competition between very little.
Accelerating success.
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