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Q4 2011 | RETAIL



CINCINNATI, OH

THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT




                                                                                2011 PROVES TO BE
                                                                                A STRONG YEAR FOR RETAIL
                                                                                EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
                                                                                2011 ended on a good note for the Greater Cincinnati retail market as overall net absorption
                                                                                totaled 78,540 square feet for the quarter. This pushed yearend net absorption to 630,236
                                                                                square feet and the vacancy rate for all retail property types totaled 12.8%. Several
                                                                                submarkets helped fuel the momentum throughout the year, including the CBD/Midtown
                                                                                Submarket, Tri-County’s North Central Submarket and the West Submarket.

                                                                                Although demand remained strong, the average overall asking rate for retail space dropped
  MARKET INDICATORS                                                             slightly to $11.55 per square foot. This was a clear sign that owners of retail properties
                                               Q4 11            Q1 12*
                                                                                remain cautious about the overall economic recovery and will do whatever it takes to land
                                                                                quality tenants for their properties.
                       VACANCY
                                                                                DEVELOPMENT
        NET ABSORPTION                                                          As noted throughout most of the year, construction of retail projects continues to flourish.
                                                                                The area’s largest retail project under construction is the mixed-use development at The
              CONSTRUCTION
                                                                                Banks. This project was active for most of the year and will transform into a retail hotspot
               RENTAL RATE
                                                                                when the first phase of the development is completed. Retailers and restaurants such as
                                                                                Ruth’s Chris, Tin Roof, Johnny Rockets, Holy Grail, Crave, The Wine Guy, Mahogany’s and
                                       *Projected Change to                     Toby Keith’s I Love This Bar all signed leases for the development, resulting in an occupancy
                                       the following Quarter.                   rate of 70 percent for the first phase of the project.

                                                                                In Norwood, the developer of the long-anticipated Rookwood Exchange broke ground on
                                                                                the site which sat vacant for three years. Jeffrey R. Anderson Real Estate will kick off the
                                                                                first phase of the $125 million development, which will consist of a 123-room Courtyard by
                                                                                Marriott Hotel and a 16-screen movie theater that includes a 7,000-square-foot restaurant
                                                                                and bar with VIP balcony seating.

                                                                                Earlier this year, Oakley Station landed the first anchor tenant at the $120 million mixed-
 OVERALL VACANCY RATE
                                                                                use development planned for the site of the former Milacron factory in this central
                                                                                submarket. Cinemark NexGen, a Plano, Texas company, said it will open its first local
15%
                                                                                theater at this site developed by Vandercar Holdings. In addition to the 55,000-square-foot
                                                                                theater, the developer is planning 350,000 square feet of retail space, 250,000 square feet
14%
                                                                                of office space, and 300 apartments.
13%


12%
                                                                                In 2012, there will be a handful of smaller projects as developers like Brandicorp move
                                                                                forward with plans for several neighborhood developments around the city. Brandicorp’s
11%
                                                                                development plans include a $2.5 million retail strip center next to the Fort Wright
10%                                                                             Wal-Mart and the development of a site in Anderson Township, which could possibly include
                                                                3Q 11
      4Q 09


               1Q 10


                       2Q 10


                               3Q 10


                                       4Q 10


                                                1Q 11


                                                        2Q 11




                                                                        4Q 11




                                                                                a First Financial Bank and a Buffalo Wild Wings, at the corner of Beechmont Avenue and
                                                                                Asbury Road.



www.colliers.com/cincinnati
THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT | Q4 2011 | RETAIL | CINCINNATI

                                                               RETAIL INVESTMENT SALES                                        and 313% of the $85 million in sales from 2009.
                                                                                                                              Even after stripping out the Blackstone sale, we
                                                               Sales of retail properties in 2011 could be
                                                                                                                              saw year-over-year sales increases of 59% and
                                                               interpreted as “steady progress” when you
                                                                                                                              91% when comparing 2011 to 2010 and 2009.
                                                               compare activity to 2009 and 2010. At yearend,
                                                                                                                              Amazing progress given the challenges faced over
                                                               Colliers tracked fifty-five retail shopping center
                                                                                                                              that time.
                                                               sales in southern Ohio since January 1, 2011. These
                                                               sales totaled more than $351 million in property
                                                                                                                              FORECAST
                                                               dispositions and have a very interesting makeup of
                                                                                                                              The Greater Cincinnati retail market had a good
                                                               sale types. We compared current activity levels to
                                                                                                                              year in terms of activity and lease signings, and
                                                               those from 2010 and 2009, and noticed several
                                                                                                                              this momentum is expected to continue throughout
                                                               trends emerging. The underlying trend being that
                                                                                                                              2012. The overall health of the economy still
                                                               transactions are occurring, which means capital is
                                                                                                                              remains a question mark, but there are positive
                                                               flowing back to retail again which is great news for
                                                                                                                              signs we are headed in the right direction. Although
                                                               the overall market.
                                                                                                                              unemployment remains high, consumers are
                                                                                                                              spending their discretionary income and fueling the
                                                               June marked the largest retail investment of 2011
                                                                                                                              growth of retailers across the country. Vacancy
                                                               when Blackstone completed their $9.4 billion mega
                                                                                                                              rates will continue to fall slightly, possibly 25 to
                                                               acquisition of Centro Properties. This portfolio
                                                                                                                              50 basis points in 2012. Construction will move
                                                               encompassed 2.77 million square feet of space
                                                                                                                              forward and additional smaller projects are
                                                               within 11 shopping centers located between
                                                                                                                              expected to be announced by the end of the year.
                                                               Cincinnati and Dayton, and the allocations of those
                                                               assets exceeded $189 million. Combining this with
                                                               the $162 million in traditional sales, we saw an
                                                               increase of more than 245% of sales from 2010

UPDATE       Recent Transactions

FOURTH QUARTER ACTIVITY

PROPERTY                                                       TRADE AREA                              TENANT                                         SIZE
Planfield & Ronald Reagan Hwy                                  Blue Ash                                Target Opening                                 135,000
Florence Square on Mall Rd                                     North Central                           Kroger                                         123,678
Kentucky 18/Burlington Pike                                    Boone                                   Morris Furniture Co.                           100,000
Former Hobby Lobby                                             West                                    Ollie’s                                        55,169
Rookwood Commons                                               CBD/Midtown                             Recreational Equipment Inc, REI                21,000
West Chester Uptown                                            Northwest                               Fresh Market Store                             20,500
Cox & Tylersville Rd                                           Northwest                               Marlin & Ray’s Seafood Bar & Grill             20,500
Brentwood Plaza                                                Northwest                               Planet Fitness                                 19,000
Bridgewater Falls                                              North Central                           Staples                                        17,000
537 East Pete Rose Way                                         CBD/Midtown                             Whisky Bar                                     12,000
8991 Kingsridge Dr                                             North Central                           Marions Pizza                                  11,000
1711 State Route 28                                            East                                    Red Rooster ‘Blast to the Past’ Diner          10,125
The Banks                                                      CBD/Midtown                             Ruth’s Chris                                   9,600
Bridgewater Falls                                              North Central                           Charming Charlie                               7,800
505 Vine Street                                                CBD/Midtown                             Tiffany & Co.                                  7,500
435 Elm Street                                                 CBD/Midtown                             Jimmy G’s                                      7,500
6380 Glenway Ave                                               Forest Park/West                        Willie’s Sports Café                           7,400
11749 Princeton Pike                                           North Central                           Play It Again Sports                           7,400
Kenwood Place                                                  Northeast                               Massage Envy                                   7,229
Seventh & Race                                                 CBD/Midtown                             Blue Wisp Jazz Club                            7,100
7th Street                                                     CBD/Midtown                             PLAY                                           6,700
The Banks                                                      CBD/Midtown                             Wine Guy Bistro                                6,400
9343 Colerain Ave                                              Northwest                               Show Me’s                                      6,000
9521 Fields Ertel Road                                         Northeast                               Lighting One                                   5,100
Transactions are believed to be accurate but not guaranteed.


 P. 2     | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT | Q4 2011 | RETAIL | CINCINNATI



  SUBMARKET DATA

                                                                                 Total Vacant                                               Quarterly                      YTD
  SUBMARKET                               Total Inventory                                                    Vacancy Rate                                                                         Avg. Rate
                                                                                      SF                                                   Absorption                    Absorption


  Boone County                                     4,443,274                       570,326                        12.8%                     (6,000)                         59,718                 $11.54


  Campbell County                                  2,598,774                       281,751                        10.8%                              0                    148,511                  $11.59


  CBD/Midtown                                      4,024,267                       318,844                         7.9%                     205,000                       390,585                  $11.75


  East                                             6,454,147                       861,312                        13.3%                     (54,744)                        58,833                 $10.76


  Kenton County                                    2,697,225                       225,955                         8.4%                              0                    (15,006)                 $13.12


  North Central                                    10,803,166                     1,461,567                       13.5%                       7,156                       102,312                  $11.76


  Northeast                                        8,830,430                      1,028,478                       11.6%                     (13,728)                     (217,524)                 $13.61


  Northwest                                        6,774,187                      1,162,503                       17.2%                     (61,128)                        (8,897)                 $8.85


  West                                             4,697,596                       641,900                        13.7%                       1,984                       111,704                  $12.24


  Market Totals                                    51,323,066                     6,552,636                       12.8%                      78,540                       630,236                  $11.55



      AVG. ASKING RATES (PER SF-FULL SERVICE GROSS)                                                       QUARTERLY NET ABSORPTION


              Strip Centre            Neighborhood            All Property Types
$15                                                                                                       1,500                                                                                   The Retail Market
                                                                                                                                       Net Absorption                                             saw 78,540 square
$14
                                                                                                                                                                                                  feet of positive
                                                                                            Square Feet




                                                                                                          1,000
$13                                                                                                                                                                                               absorption
                                                                                                                                                                                                  this quarter.
$12
                                                                                                            500
$11

$10                                                                                                           0

$9
                                                                                                           -500
                              3Q 10




                                                                         3Q 11


                                                                                    4Q 11
      4Q 09


              1Q 10


                      2Q 10




                                           4Q 10


                                                      1Q 11


                                                                2Q 11




                                                                                                                                             3Q 10


                                                                                                                                                         4Q 10




                                                                                                                                                                                  3Q 11


                                                                                                                                                                                          4Q 11
                                                                                                                   4Q 09


                                                                                                                           1Q 10


                                                                                                                                   2Q 10




                                                                                                                                                                 1Q 11


                                                                                                                                                                          2Q 11




                                                                                                                                                                                  COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL |       P. 3
THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT | Q4 2011 | RETAIL | CINCINNATI

 RETAIL SUBMARKETS
                                                                                              512 offices in
                                                                                              61 countries on
                                                                                              6 continents
                                                                                              United States: 125
                                                                                              Canada: 38
                                             NORTH           NORTHEAST                        Latin America: 18
                                            CENTRAL                                           Asia Pacific: 214
                                                                                              EMEA: 117

                                                                                              •   $1.5 billion in annual revenue
              NORTHWEST                                                                       • 979 billion square feet under
                                                                                                  management
                                                                                              • Over 12,000 professionals




                                                                       EAST
                                              CBD
                           WEST             MIDTOWN
                                                                                              CEO | PRINCIPAL:
                                                                                              Shenan P. Murphy, CCIM
                                                                                              +1 513 721 4200

                                                                                              Colliers International | Greater Cincinnati
                                                                                              425 Walnut Street, Suite 1200
                                                                                              Cincinnati, OH 45202
      BOONE                       KENTON            CAMPBELL                                  Colliers International statistics are audited annually
                                                                                              and may result in revisions to previously reported
                                                                                              quarterly and final year-end figures




                                                                                              Accelerating success.
Retail Services | Greater Cincinnati




Michael P. Ziegler, CLS           Ken Arbino                   Morton A. Schwartz             Justin T. Rex
Brokerage Senior Vice President   Brokerage Vice President     Brokerage Vice President       Brokerage Associate
mike.ziegler@colliers.com         ken.arbino@colliers.com      morton.schwartz@colliers.com   justin.rex@colliers.com
DIR +1 513 562 2224               DIR +1 513 562 2238          DIR +1 513 562 2277            DIR +1 513 562 2218




www.colliers.com/cincinnati

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Q4 2011 - Cincinnati Retail

  • 1. Q4 2011 | RETAIL CINCINNATI, OH THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT 2011 PROVES TO BE A STRONG YEAR FOR RETAIL EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2011 ended on a good note for the Greater Cincinnati retail market as overall net absorption totaled 78,540 square feet for the quarter. This pushed yearend net absorption to 630,236 square feet and the vacancy rate for all retail property types totaled 12.8%. Several submarkets helped fuel the momentum throughout the year, including the CBD/Midtown Submarket, Tri-County’s North Central Submarket and the West Submarket. Although demand remained strong, the average overall asking rate for retail space dropped MARKET INDICATORS slightly to $11.55 per square foot. This was a clear sign that owners of retail properties Q4 11 Q1 12* remain cautious about the overall economic recovery and will do whatever it takes to land quality tenants for their properties. VACANCY DEVELOPMENT NET ABSORPTION As noted throughout most of the year, construction of retail projects continues to flourish. The area’s largest retail project under construction is the mixed-use development at The CONSTRUCTION Banks. This project was active for most of the year and will transform into a retail hotspot RENTAL RATE when the first phase of the development is completed. Retailers and restaurants such as Ruth’s Chris, Tin Roof, Johnny Rockets, Holy Grail, Crave, The Wine Guy, Mahogany’s and *Projected Change to Toby Keith’s I Love This Bar all signed leases for the development, resulting in an occupancy the following Quarter. rate of 70 percent for the first phase of the project. In Norwood, the developer of the long-anticipated Rookwood Exchange broke ground on the site which sat vacant for three years. Jeffrey R. Anderson Real Estate will kick off the first phase of the $125 million development, which will consist of a 123-room Courtyard by Marriott Hotel and a 16-screen movie theater that includes a 7,000-square-foot restaurant and bar with VIP balcony seating. Earlier this year, Oakley Station landed the first anchor tenant at the $120 million mixed- OVERALL VACANCY RATE use development planned for the site of the former Milacron factory in this central submarket. Cinemark NexGen, a Plano, Texas company, said it will open its first local 15% theater at this site developed by Vandercar Holdings. In addition to the 55,000-square-foot theater, the developer is planning 350,000 square feet of retail space, 250,000 square feet 14% of office space, and 300 apartments. 13% 12% In 2012, there will be a handful of smaller projects as developers like Brandicorp move forward with plans for several neighborhood developments around the city. Brandicorp’s 11% development plans include a $2.5 million retail strip center next to the Fort Wright 10% Wal-Mart and the development of a site in Anderson Township, which could possibly include 3Q 11 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 4Q 11 a First Financial Bank and a Buffalo Wild Wings, at the corner of Beechmont Avenue and Asbury Road. www.colliers.com/cincinnati
  • 2. THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT | Q4 2011 | RETAIL | CINCINNATI RETAIL INVESTMENT SALES and 313% of the $85 million in sales from 2009. Even after stripping out the Blackstone sale, we Sales of retail properties in 2011 could be saw year-over-year sales increases of 59% and interpreted as “steady progress” when you 91% when comparing 2011 to 2010 and 2009. compare activity to 2009 and 2010. At yearend, Amazing progress given the challenges faced over Colliers tracked fifty-five retail shopping center that time. sales in southern Ohio since January 1, 2011. These sales totaled more than $351 million in property FORECAST dispositions and have a very interesting makeup of The Greater Cincinnati retail market had a good sale types. We compared current activity levels to year in terms of activity and lease signings, and those from 2010 and 2009, and noticed several this momentum is expected to continue throughout trends emerging. The underlying trend being that 2012. The overall health of the economy still transactions are occurring, which means capital is remains a question mark, but there are positive flowing back to retail again which is great news for signs we are headed in the right direction. Although the overall market. unemployment remains high, consumers are spending their discretionary income and fueling the June marked the largest retail investment of 2011 growth of retailers across the country. Vacancy when Blackstone completed their $9.4 billion mega rates will continue to fall slightly, possibly 25 to acquisition of Centro Properties. This portfolio 50 basis points in 2012. Construction will move encompassed 2.77 million square feet of space forward and additional smaller projects are within 11 shopping centers located between expected to be announced by the end of the year. Cincinnati and Dayton, and the allocations of those assets exceeded $189 million. Combining this with the $162 million in traditional sales, we saw an increase of more than 245% of sales from 2010 UPDATE Recent Transactions FOURTH QUARTER ACTIVITY PROPERTY TRADE AREA TENANT SIZE Planfield & Ronald Reagan Hwy Blue Ash Target Opening 135,000 Florence Square on Mall Rd North Central Kroger 123,678 Kentucky 18/Burlington Pike Boone Morris Furniture Co. 100,000 Former Hobby Lobby West Ollie’s 55,169 Rookwood Commons CBD/Midtown Recreational Equipment Inc, REI 21,000 West Chester Uptown Northwest Fresh Market Store 20,500 Cox & Tylersville Rd Northwest Marlin & Ray’s Seafood Bar & Grill 20,500 Brentwood Plaza Northwest Planet Fitness 19,000 Bridgewater Falls North Central Staples 17,000 537 East Pete Rose Way CBD/Midtown Whisky Bar 12,000 8991 Kingsridge Dr North Central Marions Pizza 11,000 1711 State Route 28 East Red Rooster ‘Blast to the Past’ Diner 10,125 The Banks CBD/Midtown Ruth’s Chris 9,600 Bridgewater Falls North Central Charming Charlie 7,800 505 Vine Street CBD/Midtown Tiffany & Co. 7,500 435 Elm Street CBD/Midtown Jimmy G’s 7,500 6380 Glenway Ave Forest Park/West Willie’s Sports Café 7,400 11749 Princeton Pike North Central Play It Again Sports 7,400 Kenwood Place Northeast Massage Envy 7,229 Seventh & Race CBD/Midtown Blue Wisp Jazz Club 7,100 7th Street CBD/Midtown PLAY 6,700 The Banks CBD/Midtown Wine Guy Bistro 6,400 9343 Colerain Ave Northwest Show Me’s 6,000 9521 Fields Ertel Road Northeast Lighting One 5,100 Transactions are believed to be accurate but not guaranteed. P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
  • 3. THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT | Q4 2011 | RETAIL | CINCINNATI SUBMARKET DATA Total Vacant Quarterly YTD SUBMARKET Total Inventory Vacancy Rate Avg. Rate SF Absorption Absorption Boone County 4,443,274 570,326 12.8% (6,000) 59,718 $11.54 Campbell County 2,598,774 281,751 10.8% 0 148,511 $11.59 CBD/Midtown 4,024,267 318,844 7.9% 205,000 390,585 $11.75 East 6,454,147 861,312 13.3% (54,744) 58,833 $10.76 Kenton County 2,697,225 225,955 8.4% 0 (15,006) $13.12 North Central 10,803,166 1,461,567 13.5% 7,156 102,312 $11.76 Northeast 8,830,430 1,028,478 11.6% (13,728) (217,524) $13.61 Northwest 6,774,187 1,162,503 17.2% (61,128) (8,897) $8.85 West 4,697,596 641,900 13.7% 1,984 111,704 $12.24 Market Totals 51,323,066 6,552,636 12.8% 78,540 630,236 $11.55 AVG. ASKING RATES (PER SF-FULL SERVICE GROSS) QUARTERLY NET ABSORPTION Strip Centre Neighborhood All Property Types $15 1,500 The Retail Market Net Absorption saw 78,540 square $14 feet of positive Square Feet 1,000 $13 absorption this quarter. $12 500 $11 $10 0 $9 -500 3Q 10 3Q 11 4Q 11 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 10 4Q 10 3Q 11 4Q 11 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
  • 4. THE KNOWLEDGE REPORT | Q4 2011 | RETAIL | CINCINNATI RETAIL SUBMARKETS 512 offices in 61 countries on 6 continents United States: 125 Canada: 38 NORTH NORTHEAST Latin America: 18 CENTRAL Asia Pacific: 214 EMEA: 117 • $1.5 billion in annual revenue NORTHWEST • 979 billion square feet under management • Over 12,000 professionals EAST CBD WEST MIDTOWN CEO | PRINCIPAL: Shenan P. Murphy, CCIM +1 513 721 4200 Colliers International | Greater Cincinnati 425 Walnut Street, Suite 1200 Cincinnati, OH 45202 BOONE KENTON CAMPBELL Colliers International statistics are audited annually and may result in revisions to previously reported quarterly and final year-end figures Accelerating success. Retail Services | Greater Cincinnati Michael P. Ziegler, CLS Ken Arbino Morton A. Schwartz Justin T. Rex Brokerage Senior Vice President Brokerage Vice President Brokerage Vice President Brokerage Associate mike.ziegler@colliers.com ken.arbino@colliers.com morton.schwartz@colliers.com justin.rex@colliers.com DIR +1 513 562 2224 DIR +1 513 562 2238 DIR +1 513 562 2277 DIR +1 513 562 2218 www.colliers.com/cincinnati