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Q1 2013 Columbus Market Trends Retail
1. retail Trends Report
Greater Columbus Region
www.colliers.com/columbus
Columbus Region OverView
Columbus’ retail market saw its fourth consecutive quarter of positive absorption with 49,058 square feet,
continuing the trend of eleven of the last twelve quarters that have seen positive absorption. Vacancy now
stands at 10 percent. The largest leases signed this quarter were Dick’s Sporting Goods and Best Buy
renewing their 49,447 square foot lease and 30,000 square foot lease, respectively, at Parkway Centre
North. Lucky’s Fresh Market also entered the Columbus market with a 24,000 square foot grocery in
Clintonville.
Forecasts and Reflections
• The retail market continues to slowly grow in Columbus. The boom in the development of new apartment
buildings continues all across the city bringing with it new retail space. The construction outlook remains
high as over 170,000 square feet of new retail space continues to be built.
• Giant Eagle draws nearer to beginning construction on its two new stores in the Columbus market. An
84,000 square foot Giant Eagle is being built at the northwest corner of Cemetery Road and Britton
Parkway as well as a 92,000 square foot grocer at the new Grandview Yard development.
• Cabela’s completed construction of its 80,000 square foot retail store just north of Polaris Fashion Place.
It opened to the public in early March.
• The largest sale transactions this quarter were the 220,079 square foot Westerville Plaza and the 160,702
square foot Arlington Square as part of a portfolio sale between Kimco and Garrison Investment Group.
Also of note was the 188,287 square foot Brice Outlet Mall sold for $950,000 to 5780 Scarborough LLC.
Market indicators
Rental Rates Converge, BiG Box Dips
Asking Rates
Q1
2013
Q2
2013*
Vacancy
Net absorption
construction
Rental Rates —
*Projected change to following quarter
Q1 2013 | Retail
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
Q1
08
Q2
08
Q3
08
Q4
08
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
09
Q4
09
Q1
10
Q2
10
Q3
10
Q4
10
Q1
11
Q2
11
Q3
11
Q4
11
Q1
12
Q2
12
Q3
12
Q4
12
Q1
13
AnchoredStrip Neighborhood Community Big Box
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
(700,000)
(500,000)
(300,000)
(100,000)
100,000
300,000
500,000
700,000
900,000
Q2
08
Q3
08
Q4
08
Q1
09
Q2
09
Q3
09
Q4
09
Q1
10
Q2
10
Q3
10
Q4
10
Q1
11
Q2
11
Q3
11
Q4
11
Q1
12
Q2
12
Q3
12
Q4
12
Q1
13
VacancyRate
CompletionsandAbsorptions
Completions Absorption Vacancy Rate
Vacancy Rate over completions and absorptions
Rental Rates
The average asking
rental rates for Big Box
has dipped to $5.92,
from its previous high of
$6.51. Anchored strip
and neighborhood
centers rates have met
around the $11.50 mark.
The region posted
positive results during
the fourth quarter of
2012, with vacancy rates
decreasing to 10.0
percent from 10.1
percent.
Construction Fuels Retail Market in 2013
2. Fundamentals
Three sources are helpful when gauging retail consumer
activity: the consumer confidence index, a weekly poll
conducted by Gallup, and the Beige Book produced by
the Federal Reserve Bank semi-quarterly.
The consumer confidence index is produced by the
Conference Board and is a survey of how confident
consumers are in the current economic conditions by
their spending and saving habits. The Conference Board
Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved in
February, declined in March. The Index now stands at
59.7, down from 68 in February. The Present Situation
Index decreased to 57.9 from 61.4 and the Expectations
Index declined to 60.9 from 72.4 last month. Possible
explanation for the decrease in confidence is the recent
sequester that has likely created uncertainty regarding
the economic outlook.
Gallup’s consumer spending measure tracks the average
dollar amount Americans report spending or charging on
a daily basis, not counting the purchase of a home, motor
vehicle, or normal household bills. Over the three month
period between January and March, the 14-day rolling
average increased from $83 to $84 with a high of $96 in
the second week of March. Gallup’s consumer spending
measure is running at a higher level in early 2013 than
has been the case over the past several years, but
remains well below the $106 of early 2008.
The Cleveland Federal Reserve reports on consumer
spending twice a quarter in the Beige Book, and data
comes from qualitative surveys of retailers in the fourth
district, which includes Columbus. While many retailers
reported strong sales, they noted they were still below
year-ago levels. Most retailers, however, anticipate that
transactions in the upcoming months will be above year-
ago levels, in the low to mid-single digits. However, there
is concern about the impact of rising gasoline prices on
spending by lower-income households. Increased
volume was seen in apparel and firearms and vendor
and shelf prices held steady. Inventories rose slightly,
but they were described as manageable. Capital
expenditures were on plan for the fiscal year and no
significant hiring is anticipated, except for staffing new
stores. Sales of new motor vehicles grew at a robust
pace during January when compared to this time last
year. Dealers credited milder-than-normal January
weather and pent-up demand for the sales boost.
The Columbus retail market includes 11
suburban submarkets and the Central
Business District. This includes a total
inventory of 60 million square feet of
space with only 1 million of that space in
the CBD.
update New Supply, Absorption and Vacancy Rates
sales activity
Property Address sales date sale price size SF Grantor Grantee Price / Sf type submarket
87-133 Huber Village Blvd 1/7/2013 $2,500,000 220,079 Kimco Garrison Investment Group $11.36 Anchored Strip Northeast
5780 Scarborough Blvd 1/10/2013 $950,000 188,287 Brice Mall Investments LLC 5790 Scarborough LLC $5.05 Neighborhood Center Southeast
1821-1851 Henderson Road 1/7/2013 $12,250,000 160,702 Kimco Garrison Investment Group $76.23 Neighborhood Center Northwest
1161 Columbus Pike 1/31/2013 $2,600,000 84,247 Delaware Land Co D & D Property Group LLC $30.86 Neighborhood Center Delaware
1800 Hilliard Rome Road 2/8/2013 $15,403,123 54,261 P &P Taylorsville LLC Realty Income Corp $283.87 Freestanding Northwest
4044-4052 Morse Road 2/27/2013 $3,475,000 19,827 Casto Northland 3 LLC $175.27 Neighborhood Center Northeast
2582-2682 Hilliard Rome
Road
1/4/2013 $2,075,000 19,200 Hilliard Rome Square LLC Rainbow Development Corp $108.07 Conv/Strip Ctr Northeast
2900 Bethel Road 3/26/2013 $519,000 16,053 Adam’s Investment LLC Madden’s Pointe LLC $32.33 Freestanding Northeast
1130 N Memorial Drive 2/4/2013 $672,500 15,500 DCR Real Estate IV LLC Energy Contractors LLC $43.39 Freestanding Fairfield
Delaware County
Pickaway County
Union
County
Madison
County
Licking
County
Fairfield
County
North /
Northeast
Southeast
Southwest
Northwest
CBD
Lease activity
Property Address Lease Sf Total Size Lessee Asking price (NNN) Type Submarket
1680-1760 Stringtown Road 49,447 400,000 Dick's Sporting Goods (renewal) $23.00 Power Center Southwest
1680-1760 Stringtown Road 30,000 400,000 Best Buy (renewal) $23.00 Power Center Southwest
2800 North High Street 24,000 33,836 Lucky's Fresh Market $13.00 Convenience/Strip Northeast
1680-1760 Stringtown Road 21,835 400,000 Michael's (renewal) $23.00 Power Center Southwest
1710-1850 Columbus Pike 10,100 122,607 Sears Hometown $10.00 Power Center Delaware
548-658 East Broad Street 10,000 137,000 Dollar Tree $13.00 Convenience/Strip Licking
2605-2777 Northland Plaza Drive 6,300 205,553 St. James Christian Center - Anchored Strip Center Northeast
338-770 Coleman's Crossing Blvd 6,075 461,330 Total Renal Care, Inc. $11.50 Power Center Union
2605-2777 Northland Plaza Drive 5,600 205,553 Fiesta Jalisco - Anchored Strip Center Northeast
p. 2 | Colliers International
research & forecast report | Q1 2013 | Retail | Greater Columbus Region
3. Employment
Columbus was the 2nd ranked city in
the Country in terms of job creation for
the 1st quarter. Houston was the only
city who outpaced Columbus. At the
end of 2008, Ohio was 80 basis points
higher than the national unemployment
average. As we sit today, we are 110
basis points lower than the national
average.
update Market Comparisons
Retail market
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
Submarket Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions Neighborhood Power
CBD 1,102,826 51,399 4.7% - - 71,735 0 $12.00 -
Fairfield 3,960,854 388,911 9.8% 7,430 7,430 0 $14.86 $13.00
LICKING 3,960,108 300,155 7.6% (8,260) (8,260) 0 $13.00 $15.90
Madison 214,406 22,892 10.7% (4,120) (4,120) 0 - -
NORTH DELAWARE 2,190,769 129,820 5.9% 10,100 10,100 0 $25.00 $13.00
Northeast 16,908,822 860,935 5.1% 25,881 25,881 7,007 80,000 $13.97 $14.15
Northwest 13,191,214 1,195,122 9.1% 5,662 5,662 67,500 0 $10.67 $15.11
Pickaway 656,177 6,150 0.9% - - 0 $10.50 -
Southeast 10,036,965 1,485,253 14.8% (2,531) (2,531) 0 $8.95 $11.39
Southwest 7,092,147 1,555,327 21.9% (8,179) (8,179) 10,739 0 $10.14 $7.70
UNION 1,161,503 56,650 4.9% 23,075 23,075 0 - $16.00
Grand Total 60,499,791 6,052,614 10.0% 49,058 49,058 172,621 80,000 $11.45 $12.27
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
Property Type Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions (NNN)
Anchored Strip Center 11,984,834 1,342,335 11.2% 67,443 67,443 22,647 - $11.54
Big Box 7,635,821 814,447 10.7% (1,426) (1,426) 10,739 80,000 $5.92
Community 4,140,660 615,184 14.9% (38,085) (38,085) - $10.46
Conv/Strip Ctr 3,553,229 290,295 8.2% 11,085 11,085 - $12.01
Freestanding 4,019,270 275,114 6.8% 566 566 71,735 - $11.17
Neighborhood 5,469,160 759,123 13.9% (7,585) (7,585) 67,500 - $11.45
Power 15,949,195 1,195,846 7.5% 17,060 17,060 - $12.35
Regional Ctr 663,236 136,200 20.5% - - - $10.22
Strip 133,012 33,320 25.1% - - - $12.35
Supr Reg Ctr 6,431,125 590,750 9.2% - - - $12.03
Urban Retail 520,249 - 0.0% - - - -
TotalS 60,499,791 6,052,614 10.0% 49,058 49,058 172,621 80,000 $11.18
quarterly comparison and totals
Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates
Quarter, year Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions Neighborhood Power
Q4, 2012 60,494,500 6,098,072 10.1 108,252 150,955 336,875 33,789 $11.40 $12.21
Q3, 2012 60,494,500 6,198,833 10.2 41,157 39,054 231,000 180,000 $11.82 $11.68
Q2, 2012 60,288,465 6,522,146 10.8 110,275 (4,478) 352,789 - $12.35 $12.03
Q1, 2012 60,288,465 6,632,421 11.0 (112,378) (112,378) 280,000 - $10.80 $11.07
research & forecast report | Q1 2013 | Retail | Greater Columbus Region
Colliers International | p. 3
4. CBD
The Central Business District (CBD) absorption
remains flat, but is sure to increase in the coming
quarters as the multi-family construction projects
begin and are completed, opening the way for new
retail opportunities. Construction continues on nearly
1,500 new units: Flats on Vine II (120), The Goodale
(174), Liberty Place Phase II (200), Columbus
Commons (300), Harrison Park (108), Aston Place
(59), Liberty Crossing II (200) and Neighborhood
Launch Apartments (260).
North
The north submarkets include Northwest, Northeast
and North Delaware. The Northwest submarket saw
5,662 square feet of positive absorption decreasing
the vacancy rate to 6.7 percent. Construction on the
80,000 square foot Cabela’s was completed and the
store opened to the public in early March. Star Lanes
at Polaris Fashion Place finished their renovation for a
35,000 square foot bowling alley and event center that
recently opened. Construction continues on The Lane,
a 67,500 square foot mixed-use development that will
offer street-level retail space, second floor office space
and more than 100 luxury apartments.
The Northeast submarket led all markets with 25,881
square feet of positive absorption in large part to
Lucky’s Farmers Market moving into a 24,000 square
foot space at 2800 N. High Street. The positive
absorption was intact even with the departure of a
36,487 square foot Marshall’s at Northern Lights
Shopping Center.
North Delaware saw 10,100 square feet of positive
absorption with Sears Hometown being the only new
tenant moving into the space at Delaware Community
Plaza.
South
The southern submarkets are Southeast and
Southwest. Both saw negative absorption for the first
quarter after both recorded positive absorption to
close out 2012. The Southwest submarket saw 8,170
square feet of negative absorption but does have
10,739 square feet under construction as part of the
larger Grandview Yard development site.
The Southeast submarket saw a modest 2,532 square
feet of negative absorption. However, a notable
transaction took place in the Brice Outlet Mall selling
for $950,000.
East
The eastern submarkets are Licking and Fairfield
counties. Licking County saw 8,260 square feet of
negative absorption, however, did see a lease signed
by Dollar Tree for 10,000 square feet at Hazelwood
Plaza in Pataskala. A notable transaction was
completed at 1130 N. Memorial Drive in Lancaster
selling for $672,500. Recent news also indicated that
Meijer plans to close its Newark store in May or June.
West
The western submarkets include Union and Madison
counties. Union County saw positive absorption of
23,075 square feet which is up significantly from the
previous quarter. Coleman’s Crossing saw the majority
of the changes including 6,075 square feet of space
leased to DaVita Total Renal Care and 4,500 square
feet leased to Tres Potrillos Mexican Restaurant.
Madison County, however, saw negative absorption of
4,120 square feet for the first quarter.
Market Activity
Market Activity Volume is the sum of the absolute
value of each absorption change in the market and it
tells us a little more about what exactly happened to
the market behind the absorption number. The Market
Activity Volume was more than 353,688 square feet.
This is slightly below the average level of migration
(444,548 square feet), meaning that retailers
generally held steady with few closings.
The typical tenants seen most frequently entering the
market are restaurants and food operators by a
significant percentage. Fast food or fast casual
restaurants are being aggressive. Other types in the
market include discount oriented tenants, auto parts,
frozen yogurt, cell phone providers, and fitness
concepts. There are currently 46 tenants looking for
space between (1,000 and 10,000 square feet), and
ten tenants looking for space 10,000 square feet or
more.
Tenants are finding operating expenses and real
estate taxes continue to escalate, and TI allowance to
be the biggest hurdles. With the retail leasing
environment so competitive, landlords are seeing
concessions to tenants as the biggest hurdle. Class A
opportunities are especially competitive. Another
challenge is the gap in asking rates and rates sought
for lease opportunities in Class B and C shopping
centers. Landlords are having difficultly finding good
credit tenants in Class B and C centers.
Greater Columbus Region
Richard B. Schuen SIOR CCIM
CEO | Principal | Columbus
Two Miranova Place
Suite 900
Columbus, Ohio, 43215
tel +1 614 410 5612
Leslie Hobbs
Director of Marketing Ohio
Two Miranova Place
Suite 900
Columbus, Ohio, 43215
tel +1 614 410 5640
Jonathan Schuen
Research Analyst
Two Miranova Place
Suite 900
Columbus, Ohio, 43215
tel +1 614 437 4495
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Federal Reserve.
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research & forecast report | Q1 2013 | Retail | Greater Columbus Region