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Q3 2011 | RETAIL




  GREATER COLUMBUS REGION

RETAIL TRENDS REPORT




                                                                          Slow Growth Continues
                                                                          COLUMBUS REGION OVERVIEW
                                                                          The Columbus retail market finished the third quarter 2011 with moderate positive absorption of
                                                                          118,454 square feet. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter of positive absorption beginning in the
                                                                          second quarter 2010. It hasn’t been smooth sailing as news that consumer demand and confidence
                                                                          remains generally stagnant over the past six months. Economic data released recently such as jobs
                                                                          report, the economy added 103,000 jobs in September, and The Conference Board’s analysis of
                                                                          leading economic indicators at .03 percent growth suggests that the economy is not headed for
 MARKET INDICATORS                                                        another recession. This will hopefully engender more consumer confidence. Continued on page 2
                                                    Q3             Q4

                                                    2011          2011*
                                                                          FORECASTS AND REFLECTIONS
                             VACANCY                                      •   The retail vacancy rate has steadily decreased                             between the Campus Gateway and the Short
                                                                              through leasing as well as expansion of                                    North. The 44,000 square foot Rave Theatre
                NET ABSORPTION                                                product. The additional 340,000 square feet                                and the 55,000 square foot Hobby Lobby was
                    CONSTRUCTION                                   —          of new product and the moderately strong                                   completed in Grove City. 40,000 square feet
                                                                              positive leasing this year in first and third                              are going up at New Market Mall, 7588-7674
                        RENTAL RATES                —                         quarters have driven the vacancy rates lower.                              New Market Center Way, and Earth Fare
                                                                          •   In construction news, the Kroger in the Short                              organic grocery is building a 27,000-square-
                    *Projected change to following quarter
                                                                              North was rebuilt and now stands at 59,302                                 foot space in Polaris.
                                                                              square feet and anchors the block of transition


                                                                                                                                                                                             RENTAL RATES
 STEADILY UPWARD                                                          VACANCY RATE OVER COMPLETIONS AND ABSORPTIONS
 Asking Rates
                                                                                                                                                                                             The average asking
                                                                                                            1,200,000                                                 13.5%                  rental rates decreased in
               $16.00                                                                                                                                                                        strip, neighborhood, and
                                                                              Completions and Absorptions




                                                                                                            1,000,000
                                                                                                                                                                      13.0%                  community.           The
                                                                                                              800,000
               $14.00                                                                                         600,000                                                 12.5%                  softening of prices this
                                                                                                                                                                              Vacancy Rate




                                                                                                                                                                                             quarter was a fairly
Rental Rates




                                                                                                              400,000                                                 12.0%
                                                                                                              200,000                                                                        significant drop in the
               $12.00
                                                                                                                    0                                                 11.5%                  average. One explanation
                                                                                                             ‐200,000                                                                        may be that asking rates
                                                                                                                                                                      11.0%
               $10.00
                                                                                                             ‐400,000                                                                        are better reflecting
                                                                                                             ‐600,000
                                                                                                                                                                      10.5%                  leasing rates or another
                $8.00                                                                                                                                                                        explanation may be that
                                                                                                             ‐800,000                                                 10.0%
                        1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q                                                                                                                         general demand for
                                                                                                                        2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
                        08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11
                                                                                                                        08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11                            product is not as strong
                                                                                                                                                                                             as some of the larger
                             Strip   Neighborhood     Community
                                                                                                                        Completions     Absorption     Vacancy Rate                          leases would suggest.




  www.colliers.com/columbus
RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q3 2011 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION


                                                                          Asking rates fell steeply for a majority of product                CONSTRUCTION
                  Delaware County
                                                                          type. As explained on page one, there are                          Both the 44,000-square-foot Rave movie theatre
  Union
  County                                                                  numerous possible explanations. It may be that                     and the nearby 55,000-square-foot Hobby Lobby
                                North /
                                                                          asking rates are better reflecting leasing rates or                Project in Grove City completed in the third
                                                Licking
             Northwest
                                Northeast
                                                County                    it may be that general demand for product is not                   quarter.
                                                                          as strong as some of the larger leases would
                                                                                                                                             On Sawmill Rd. & I-270, a portion of New Market
                                                                          suggest. The activity in the third quarter suggests
                                                                                                                                             mall is being demolished and they will be
Madison                  CBD                                              the latter explanation with a majority of the
County                                                                                                                                       constructing a the building that formerly housed
                                Southeast                                 absorption coming from Shopper’s World’s lease
                                                                                                                                             Comp USA will make room for two additional
            Southwest                                                     of the Great Western Shopping Center. Another
                                            Fairfield                                                                                        restaurant spaces (Logan’s Steakhouse and an
                                            County                        possible explanation may be that the better
                                                                                                                                             IHOP), an 80-room, yet-to-be-announced hotel
              Pickaway County                                             positioned markets are more fully leased than
                                                                                                                                             and an additional 40,000 square feet of retail
                                                                          the least well positioned product. We suspect it
                                                                                                                                             space.
                                                                          is a combination of the two of these factors. The
The Columbus retail market includes 11
                                                                          strongest prices had generally been in Northwest,
suburban submarkets and the Central                                                                                                          Some smaller construction projects are
Business District. A total inventory of 55                                Northeast and North Delaware. These are
                                                                                                                                             underway as well. A small strip center and an
million square feet of space with only 1                                  submarkets for which the vacancy rates have
                                                                                                                                             IHOP are under construction at Renner and
million of that space in the CBD.                                         decreased substantially.
                                                                                                                                             Hilliard-Rome Road. Freestanding Piada (Italian
                                                                                                                                             fast casual eatery) under construction along
                                                                          MARKET ACTIVITY                                                    Sawmill Rd. in Dublin. Block walls are up for the
                                                                          Market Activity Volume is the sum of the                           27,000 square foot Earth Fare organic grocery
                                                                          absolute value of each absorption change in the                    on Gemini Parkway in Polaris market which is
                                                                          market and it tells us a little more about what                    scheduled to open in early 2012.
                                                                          exactly happened to the market behind the
                                                                          absorption number. The Market Activity Volume
                                                                          was 500,960 square feet which is the largest
                                                                          amount of change in one quarter since before
                                                                          Q1 2009. Net positive absorption in the market,
                                                                          1.8 million square feet, explains only 28 percent
                                                                          of the changes that occurred this quarter.




  UPDATE         New Supply, Absorption and Vacancy Rates

  SALES ACTIVITY

  PROPERTY ADDRESS                  SALES DATE            SALE PRICE      SIZE SF     GRANTOR                    GRANTEE                         PRICE / SF           TYPE              SUBMARKET
  8457 Sancus Blvd                  8/3/2011              $5,975,000.00   34,316      Polaris Sancus Retail      MFC Polaris I Venture           $174.12              Neighborhood      Northeast

                                                                                      LLC Investments            LLC
  2812 Fishinger Rd                 7/29/2011             $40,000.00      26,657      -                          -                               $1.50                Neighborhood      Northwest
  765 High St                       7/29/2011             $130,000.00     25,000      Lahoti Properties LTD      CMH Midtown Properties          $5.20                General           Central
  5200 Post Rd                      9/2/2011              $1,250,000.00   17,314                                                                 $72.20               Automotive        Northwest
  4339-4367 East Main               7/12/2011             $525,000.00     11,800      Farber Holdings LLC        Ioannis Zissis                  $44.49               Neighborhood      Southeast

  Street
  5805 Chantry Drive                7/14/2011             $1,060,000.00   11,500      Brian Ross                 Haim Sakal                      $92.17               Free-standing     Southeast

  LEASE ACTIVITY

  PROPERTY ADDRESS                               LEASE SF           LESSOR                              LESSEE                           ASKING PRICE         TYPE                 SUBMARKET
  1214 Hill Rd                                   65,000            Meyer Development Enterprises LLC    Variety Wholesale                $5.00                Neighborhood         Fairfield
  2100 Morse Road                                47,500            Mc-Nc LLC                            N/A                              $10.00               Neighborhood         Northeast
  9100 Jacksontown Road                          30,000            N/A                                  N/A                              $2.00                Other                Licking County

  2640-2736 Brice Road                           15,426            Hk New Plan Exchange Property        Family Dollar                    -                    Power                Southeast

                                                                   Owner Ii LP
  2-98 Consumer Drive                            10,400            Midwest Motoplex LLC                 Halloween City                   -                    Lifestyle            Northeast


P. 2       | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q3 2011 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION


UPDATE      Market Comparisons

RETAIL MARKET
                                                                                 Net Absorption                     Construction                 Asking Rental Rates
SUBMARKET                        Total SF     Vacant SF   Vacancy %   Current Quarter     Year-to-date   Current           Completions       Neighborhood      Power
CBD                              986,975      22,918      2.3%        42,452               29,185        -                 -                 -                 -
FAIRFIELD                        3,418,174    440,942     12.9%       (35,850)             3,825         -                 -                 -                  $10.17
LICKING                          3,250,240    329,901     10.2%       (21,706)             (7,097)       -                 -                 -                  $8.97
MADISON                          443,304      9,285       2.1%        (4,000)              (4,000)       -                 -                 -                  $10.00
NORTH DELAWARE                   1,780,118    291,870     16.4%       (3,436)              6,995         -                 -                 $22.50             $11.82
NORTHEAST                        15,377,808   1,064,210   6.9%        (4,874)              57,516        -                 -                 $10.00             $12.76
NORTHWEST                        13,017,379   1,160,454   8.9%        (10,651)             (19,033)      67,000            -                 $20.00             $11.77
PICKAWAY                         694,724      17,582      2.5%        -                    (6,615)       -                 -                 -                  $8.50
SOUTHEAST                        9,459,758    1,250,063   13.2%       14,624               113,615       -                 -                 $19.50             $7.90
SOUTHWEST                        6,905,523    1,665,731   24.1%       140,695              171,674       -                 109,000           $6.26              $8.60
UNION                            1,157,257    47,652      4.1%        1,200                (1,075)       -                 -                 $18.00            -
TOTALS                           56,491,260   6,300,608   11.2%       118,454              344,990       67,000            109,000           $12.05             $10.35

                                                                                 Net Absorption                     Construction                 Asking Rental Rates
PROPERTY TYPE                    Total SF     Vacant SF   Vacancy %   Current Quarter     Year-to-date   Current           Completions
COMMUNITY                        8,999,075    1,119,308   12.4%       448                  58,936        -                 -                 $13.42
FREE-STANDING                    7,931,067    549,280     6.9%        -                    19,968        -                 109,000           $7.02
NEIGHBORHOOD                     17,397,813   2,497,705   14.4%       (82,467)             (17,089)      67,000            -                 $10.35
OTHER                            27,000       4,610       17.1%       -                    4,010         -                 -                 -
OUTLET                           184,000      -           0.0%        -                    -             -                 -                 -
POWER                            5,272,202    286,627     5.4%        139,640              167,293       -                 -                 $12.05
REGIONAL                         3,828,626    439,162     11.5%       -                    97,353        -                 -                 $10.39
SPECIALTY                        250,000      17,108      6.8%        42,452               20,830        -                 -                 -
STRIP                            5,448,505    737,453     13.5%       18,381               (10,656)      -                 -                 $11.53
SUPER REGIONAL                   6,530,997    648,155     9.9%        -                    -             -                 -                 -
URBAN                            621,975      1,200       0.2%        -                    4,345         -                 -                 -
TOTALS                           56,491,260   6,300,608   11.2%       118,454              344,990       67,000            109,000           $10.76



QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS
                                                                                 Net Absorption                     Construction                     Asking Rental Rates
QUARTER, YEAR                    Total SF     Vacant SF   Vacancy %   Current Quarter Year-to-date       Current            Completions      Neighborhood          Power
Q2, 2011                         56,392,260   6,425,462   11.4         30,507              226,536        109,000              240,000        $11.43               $18.31
Q1, 2011                         55,896,613   6,439,929   11.52       195,989             195,989        336,000               255,647        $11.46               $17.89
Q4, 2010                         56,019,350   6,663,024   11.9        57,808              274,518        541,647            110,000          $11.05                $12.50
Q3, 2010                         56,019,350   6,720,832   12.0        236,129             216,710        595,647            176,250          $11.68                $14.57


                                                                                                                                MINIMUM WAGE

                                                                                                                                The minimum wage will be increased
                                                                                                                                across Ohio by $.30 to $7.70 effective
                                                                                                                                January 1, 2012. The minimum wage
                                                                                                                                for tipped employees will climb 15
                                                                                                                                cents to $3.85 an hour. The rise is a
                                                                                                                                part of a scheduled increase tied to
                                                                                                                                consumer prices.




                                                                                                                                         COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL |           P. 3
RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q3 2011 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION


CBD                                                     Marginal vacancy changes occurred in both
The Central Business District (CBD). Leasing            Madison and Union Counties. Staples shopping
was driven by South Campus Gateway as the               center torn down on the west side.                       512 offices in
submarket gained more than 40,000 square feet
of space.                                               FUNDAMENTALS
                                                                                                                 61 countries on
                                                        Three sources are instructive for retail consumer        6 continents
A new plan is in motion for Nationwide Arena to
                                                        activity. First, the consumer confidence index,
become a publicly owned venue leaving                                                                            United States: 125
                                                        the second is a weekly poll conducted by Gallup,         Canada: 38
Nationwide Insurance and the Dispatch Printing
                                                        and the third is the Beige Book produced by the          Latin America: 18
Co. as minority owners. The Convention Facilities                                                                Asia Pacific: 214
                                                        Federal Reserve Bank semi-quarterly.
Authority, the government entity that is the                                                                     EMEA: 117
landlord for the Greater Columbus Convention
                                                        The consumer confidence index is produced by         •   $1.5 billion in annual revenue
Center, would purchase arena for $42.5 million
                                                        The Conference Board and is a survey of how          • 978.6 million square feet under
and assume management of the property. The
                                                        confident consumers are in the current economic          management
Conventional Facilities Authority would borrow
                                                        conditions by their spending and saving habits.      • Over 12,500 professionals
$43.3 million from Nationwide and $10 million
                                                        In August, the index was 45.2, decreasing by
from the Ohio Department of Development.
                                                        roughly 16 basis points from 59.5 in July. In            GREATER COLUMBUS REGION
                                                        September the index had increased slightly to
NORTH                                                                                                            Richard B. Schuen SIOR CCIM
                                                        45.4. The index was 112.5 in July 2007, six              CEO | Principal | Columbus
The north submarkets include Northwest,                 months before beginning of the recession.                8800 Lyra Drive
Northeast, and North Delaware. Sears Hardware                                                                    Suite #150
27,000 is vacating the Graceland Shopping               Gallup’s consumer spending measure tracks the            Columbus, Ohio, 43240
Center at High Street and Morris Road in                average dollar amount Americans report                   TEL +1 614 410 5612

Clintonville is. Big Lots opened in the front half of   spending or charging on a daily basis, not
former-Big Bear site on Hill Road and Refugee           counting the purchase of a home, motor vehicle,          Leslie Hobbs
Road.                                                   or normal household bills. Over the three month          Marketing and Research Manager
                                                        period between July and September the 14-day             8800 Lyra Drive
                                                        rolling average fell from $65 to $63 with a high         Suite #150
SOUTH                                                   of $75 on July 31. The high mark of the 3-day            Columbus, Ohio, 43240
The southern submarkets are Southeast and                                                                        TEL +1 614 410 5640
                                                        rolling average was also on July 31 at $91. There
Southwest. Hobby Lobby and Kohl’s at the corner         was very little variation over the three month
of Georgesville Road and Broad Street. The              period as retail sales stagnated.                        Jonathan Badgley
largest lease of the quarter happened in the                                                                     Research Analyst
Southwest at the Great Western Shopping                 The Cleveland Federal Reserve reports on                 175 South Third Street
Center, as Shopper’s World leased more than             consumer spending twice a quarter in the Beige           Suite # 285
136,000 square feet.                                    Book. The data for these reports comes from              Columbus, Ohio 43201
                                                                                                                 TEL +1 614 437 4495
                                                        qualitative surveys of retailers in the fourth
EAST                                                    district, which includes Columbus. In September,
                                                        the reserve bank reported that retailers indicated
The east submarkets are Licking and Fairfield
                                                        an increase in sales in the period from early July
Counties. Licking and Fairfield Counties lost
                                                        through mid-August were on or ahead of
35,000 square feet and 21,000 square feet
                                                        schedule. Most retailers surveyed expected
respectively.                                                                                                    This document/email has been prepared by Colliers
                                                        sales to rise in the low to mid-single digits on a       International for advertising purposes. Colliers
                                                        year-over-year basis. Capital outlays remain on          International statistics and data are audited annually and
WEST                                                    plan and the hiring outlook shows no expansion.
                                                                                                                 may result in revisions to previously reported quarterly
                                                                                                                 and final year-end figures. Sources include Columbus
The west submarkets include Union and Madison                                                                    Dispatch, Business First, Xceligent, Wall Street Journal,
                                                                                                                 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic
Counties. Low population in these submarkets                                                                     Analysis, Gallup, and the Cleveland Federal Reserve.
means that competition between retailers is less
fierce than higher populated areas of Columbus.




                                                                                                                           Accelerating success.


www.colliers.com/columbus

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Columbus OH Retail Trends Q3 2011

  • 1. Q3 2011 | RETAIL GREATER COLUMBUS REGION RETAIL TRENDS REPORT Slow Growth Continues COLUMBUS REGION OVERVIEW The Columbus retail market finished the third quarter 2011 with moderate positive absorption of 118,454 square feet. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter of positive absorption beginning in the second quarter 2010. It hasn’t been smooth sailing as news that consumer demand and confidence remains generally stagnant over the past six months. Economic data released recently such as jobs report, the economy added 103,000 jobs in September, and The Conference Board’s analysis of leading economic indicators at .03 percent growth suggests that the economy is not headed for MARKET INDICATORS another recession. This will hopefully engender more consumer confidence. Continued on page 2 Q3 Q4 2011 2011* FORECASTS AND REFLECTIONS VACANCY • The retail vacancy rate has steadily decreased between the Campus Gateway and the Short through leasing as well as expansion of North. The 44,000 square foot Rave Theatre NET ABSORPTION product. The additional 340,000 square feet and the 55,000 square foot Hobby Lobby was CONSTRUCTION — of new product and the moderately strong completed in Grove City. 40,000 square feet positive leasing this year in first and third are going up at New Market Mall, 7588-7674 RENTAL RATES — quarters have driven the vacancy rates lower. New Market Center Way, and Earth Fare • In construction news, the Kroger in the Short organic grocery is building a 27,000-square- *Projected change to following quarter North was rebuilt and now stands at 59,302 foot space in Polaris. square feet and anchors the block of transition RENTAL RATES STEADILY UPWARD VACANCY RATE OVER COMPLETIONS AND ABSORPTIONS Asking Rates The average asking 1,200,000 13.5% rental rates decreased in $16.00 strip, neighborhood, and Completions and Absorptions 1,000,000 13.0% community. The 800,000 $14.00 600,000 12.5% softening of prices this Vacancy Rate quarter was a fairly Rental Rates 400,000 12.0% 200,000 significant drop in the $12.00 0 11.5% average. One explanation ‐200,000 may be that asking rates 11.0% $10.00 ‐400,000 are better reflecting ‐600,000 10.5% leasing rates or another $8.00 explanation may be that ‐800,000 10.0% 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q general demand for 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 product is not as strong as some of the larger Strip Neighborhood Community Completions Absorption Vacancy Rate leases would suggest. www.colliers.com/columbus
  • 2. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q3 2011 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION Asking rates fell steeply for a majority of product CONSTRUCTION Delaware County type. As explained on page one, there are Both the 44,000-square-foot Rave movie theatre Union County numerous possible explanations. It may be that and the nearby 55,000-square-foot Hobby Lobby North / asking rates are better reflecting leasing rates or Project in Grove City completed in the third Licking Northwest Northeast County it may be that general demand for product is not quarter. as strong as some of the larger leases would On Sawmill Rd. & I-270, a portion of New Market suggest. The activity in the third quarter suggests mall is being demolished and they will be Madison CBD the latter explanation with a majority of the County constructing a the building that formerly housed Southeast absorption coming from Shopper’s World’s lease Comp USA will make room for two additional Southwest of the Great Western Shopping Center. Another Fairfield restaurant spaces (Logan’s Steakhouse and an County possible explanation may be that the better IHOP), an 80-room, yet-to-be-announced hotel Pickaway County positioned markets are more fully leased than and an additional 40,000 square feet of retail the least well positioned product. We suspect it space. is a combination of the two of these factors. The The Columbus retail market includes 11 strongest prices had generally been in Northwest, suburban submarkets and the Central Some smaller construction projects are Business District. A total inventory of 55 Northeast and North Delaware. These are underway as well. A small strip center and an million square feet of space with only 1 submarkets for which the vacancy rates have IHOP are under construction at Renner and million of that space in the CBD. decreased substantially. Hilliard-Rome Road. Freestanding Piada (Italian fast casual eatery) under construction along MARKET ACTIVITY Sawmill Rd. in Dublin. Block walls are up for the Market Activity Volume is the sum of the 27,000 square foot Earth Fare organic grocery absolute value of each absorption change in the on Gemini Parkway in Polaris market which is market and it tells us a little more about what scheduled to open in early 2012. exactly happened to the market behind the absorption number. The Market Activity Volume was 500,960 square feet which is the largest amount of change in one quarter since before Q1 2009. Net positive absorption in the market, 1.8 million square feet, explains only 28 percent of the changes that occurred this quarter. UPDATE New Supply, Absorption and Vacancy Rates SALES ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS SALES DATE SALE PRICE SIZE SF GRANTOR GRANTEE PRICE / SF TYPE SUBMARKET 8457 Sancus Blvd 8/3/2011 $5,975,000.00 34,316 Polaris Sancus Retail MFC Polaris I Venture $174.12 Neighborhood Northeast LLC Investments LLC 2812 Fishinger Rd 7/29/2011 $40,000.00 26,657 - - $1.50 Neighborhood Northwest 765 High St 7/29/2011 $130,000.00 25,000 Lahoti Properties LTD CMH Midtown Properties $5.20 General Central 5200 Post Rd 9/2/2011 $1,250,000.00 17,314 $72.20 Automotive Northwest 4339-4367 East Main 7/12/2011 $525,000.00 11,800 Farber Holdings LLC Ioannis Zissis $44.49 Neighborhood Southeast Street 5805 Chantry Drive 7/14/2011 $1,060,000.00 11,500 Brian Ross Haim Sakal $92.17 Free-standing Southeast LEASE ACTIVITY PROPERTY ADDRESS LEASE SF LESSOR LESSEE ASKING PRICE TYPE SUBMARKET 1214 Hill Rd 65,000 Meyer Development Enterprises LLC Variety Wholesale $5.00 Neighborhood Fairfield 2100 Morse Road 47,500 Mc-Nc LLC N/A $10.00 Neighborhood Northeast 9100 Jacksontown Road 30,000 N/A N/A $2.00 Other Licking County 2640-2736 Brice Road 15,426 Hk New Plan Exchange Property Family Dollar - Power Southeast Owner Ii LP 2-98 Consumer Drive 10,400 Midwest Motoplex LLC Halloween City - Lifestyle Northeast P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
  • 3. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q3 2011 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION UPDATE Market Comparisons RETAIL MARKET Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates SUBMARKET Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions Neighborhood Power CBD 986,975 22,918 2.3% 42,452 29,185 - - - - FAIRFIELD 3,418,174 440,942 12.9% (35,850) 3,825 - - - $10.17 LICKING 3,250,240 329,901 10.2% (21,706) (7,097) - - - $8.97 MADISON 443,304 9,285 2.1% (4,000) (4,000) - - - $10.00 NORTH DELAWARE 1,780,118 291,870 16.4% (3,436) 6,995 - - $22.50 $11.82 NORTHEAST 15,377,808 1,064,210 6.9% (4,874) 57,516 - - $10.00 $12.76 NORTHWEST 13,017,379 1,160,454 8.9% (10,651) (19,033) 67,000 - $20.00 $11.77 PICKAWAY 694,724 17,582 2.5% - (6,615) - - - $8.50 SOUTHEAST 9,459,758 1,250,063 13.2% 14,624 113,615 - - $19.50 $7.90 SOUTHWEST 6,905,523 1,665,731 24.1% 140,695 171,674 - 109,000 $6.26 $8.60 UNION 1,157,257 47,652 4.1% 1,200 (1,075) - - $18.00 - TOTALS 56,491,260 6,300,608 11.2% 118,454 344,990 67,000 109,000 $12.05 $10.35 Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates PROPERTY TYPE Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions COMMUNITY 8,999,075 1,119,308 12.4% 448 58,936 - - $13.42 FREE-STANDING 7,931,067 549,280 6.9% - 19,968 - 109,000 $7.02 NEIGHBORHOOD 17,397,813 2,497,705 14.4% (82,467) (17,089) 67,000 - $10.35 OTHER 27,000 4,610 17.1% - 4,010 - - - OUTLET 184,000 - 0.0% - - - - - POWER 5,272,202 286,627 5.4% 139,640 167,293 - - $12.05 REGIONAL 3,828,626 439,162 11.5% - 97,353 - - $10.39 SPECIALTY 250,000 17,108 6.8% 42,452 20,830 - - - STRIP 5,448,505 737,453 13.5% 18,381 (10,656) - - $11.53 SUPER REGIONAL 6,530,997 648,155 9.9% - - - - - URBAN 621,975 1,200 0.2% - 4,345 - - - TOTALS 56,491,260 6,300,608 11.2% 118,454 344,990 67,000 109,000 $10.76 QUARTERLY COMPARISON AND TOTALS Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental Rates QUARTER, YEAR Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions Neighborhood Power Q2, 2011 56,392,260 6,425,462 11.4 30,507 226,536 109,000 240,000 $11.43 $18.31 Q1, 2011 55,896,613 6,439,929 11.52 195,989 195,989 336,000 255,647 $11.46 $17.89 Q4, 2010 56,019,350 6,663,024 11.9 57,808 274,518 541,647 110,000 $11.05 $12.50 Q3, 2010 56,019,350 6,720,832 12.0 236,129 216,710 595,647 176,250 $11.68 $14.57 MINIMUM WAGE The minimum wage will be increased across Ohio by $.30 to $7.70 effective January 1, 2012. The minimum wage for tipped employees will climb 15 cents to $3.85 an hour. The rise is a part of a scheduled increase tied to consumer prices. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
  • 4. RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | Q3 2011 | RETAIL | GREATER COLUMBUS REGION CBD Marginal vacancy changes occurred in both The Central Business District (CBD). Leasing Madison and Union Counties. Staples shopping was driven by South Campus Gateway as the center torn down on the west side. 512 offices in submarket gained more than 40,000 square feet of space. FUNDAMENTALS 61 countries on Three sources are instructive for retail consumer 6 continents A new plan is in motion for Nationwide Arena to activity. First, the consumer confidence index, become a publicly owned venue leaving United States: 125 the second is a weekly poll conducted by Gallup, Canada: 38 Nationwide Insurance and the Dispatch Printing and the third is the Beige Book produced by the Latin America: 18 Co. as minority owners. The Convention Facilities Asia Pacific: 214 Federal Reserve Bank semi-quarterly. Authority, the government entity that is the EMEA: 117 landlord for the Greater Columbus Convention The consumer confidence index is produced by • $1.5 billion in annual revenue Center, would purchase arena for $42.5 million The Conference Board and is a survey of how • 978.6 million square feet under and assume management of the property. The confident consumers are in the current economic management Conventional Facilities Authority would borrow conditions by their spending and saving habits. • Over 12,500 professionals $43.3 million from Nationwide and $10 million In August, the index was 45.2, decreasing by from the Ohio Department of Development. roughly 16 basis points from 59.5 in July. In GREATER COLUMBUS REGION September the index had increased slightly to NORTH Richard B. Schuen SIOR CCIM 45.4. The index was 112.5 in July 2007, six CEO | Principal | Columbus The north submarkets include Northwest, months before beginning of the recession. 8800 Lyra Drive Northeast, and North Delaware. Sears Hardware Suite #150 27,000 is vacating the Graceland Shopping Gallup’s consumer spending measure tracks the Columbus, Ohio, 43240 Center at High Street and Morris Road in average dollar amount Americans report TEL +1 614 410 5612 Clintonville is. Big Lots opened in the front half of spending or charging on a daily basis, not former-Big Bear site on Hill Road and Refugee counting the purchase of a home, motor vehicle, Leslie Hobbs Road. or normal household bills. Over the three month Marketing and Research Manager period between July and September the 14-day 8800 Lyra Drive rolling average fell from $65 to $63 with a high Suite #150 SOUTH of $75 on July 31. The high mark of the 3-day Columbus, Ohio, 43240 The southern submarkets are Southeast and TEL +1 614 410 5640 rolling average was also on July 31 at $91. There Southwest. Hobby Lobby and Kohl’s at the corner was very little variation over the three month of Georgesville Road and Broad Street. The period as retail sales stagnated. Jonathan Badgley largest lease of the quarter happened in the Research Analyst Southwest at the Great Western Shopping The Cleveland Federal Reserve reports on 175 South Third Street Center, as Shopper’s World leased more than consumer spending twice a quarter in the Beige Suite # 285 136,000 square feet. Book. The data for these reports comes from Columbus, Ohio 43201 TEL +1 614 437 4495 qualitative surveys of retailers in the fourth EAST district, which includes Columbus. In September, the reserve bank reported that retailers indicated The east submarkets are Licking and Fairfield an increase in sales in the period from early July Counties. Licking and Fairfield Counties lost through mid-August were on or ahead of 35,000 square feet and 21,000 square feet schedule. Most retailers surveyed expected respectively. This document/email has been prepared by Colliers sales to rise in the low to mid-single digits on a International for advertising purposes. Colliers year-over-year basis. Capital outlays remain on International statistics and data are audited annually and WEST plan and the hiring outlook shows no expansion. may result in revisions to previously reported quarterly and final year-end figures. Sources include Columbus The west submarkets include Union and Madison Dispatch, Business First, Xceligent, Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Counties. Low population in these submarkets Analysis, Gallup, and the Cleveland Federal Reserve. means that competition between retailers is less fierce than higher populated areas of Columbus. Accelerating success. www.colliers.com/columbus