Colliers International is pleased to release the latest quarterly report: OFFICE PROPERTY MARKET OVERVIEW, INDIA - JAN 2012.
During 4Q 2011, the demand for commercial properties was restrained as compared to previous three quarters of the year since occupiers were cautious about committing to use real estate space. Rental values for grade ‘A’ office space remained stable in almost all the major markets across India. Looking forward, demand is likely to witness moderate growth amid a weaker global economic outlook.
For feedback on this report please contact:
Surabhi Arora MRICS
Associate Director, Research
surabhi.arora@colliers.com
Sachin Sharma
Assistant Manager, Research
Sachin.sharma@colliers.com
2. 4Q 2011 | THE KNOWLEDGE
REsEARCh & fORECAsT REpORT
sYDNEY CENTRAl BusINEss DIsTRICT
RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT
INDIA OFFICE MARkET
MACRO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
ECONOMIC INDICATORs
• As per the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
projections GDP growth rate was 6.9% for 4Q Gross Domestic product at factor cost
2011. The estimates by various agencies 10.00%
9.00%
project the growth rate within a range of 7.0 8.00%
to 8.0% for 2011-2012, suggesting a 7.00%
6.00%
moderation in the economic growth. 5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
• Provisional Wholesale Price Index as reported 2.00%
by Ministry of Finance was 9.34% for 1.00%
0.00%
December 2011. This quarter there was a
Jan - Mar 09
Apr - Jun 09
Jul - Sep 09
Oct - Dec 09
Jan - Mar 10
Apr - Jun 10
Jul - Sep 10
Oct - Dec 10
Jan - Mar 11
Apr - Jun 11
Jul - Sep 11
ECONOMIC BAROMETER slight decrease in primary inflation due to the
decrease in food inflation which stood at
Dec-10 Dec-11
-3.36%.
fDI in Real Estate
16,000
REPO RATE 6.25% 8.50%
• In 4Q 2011, RBI refrained from increasing 14,000
repo rates. It further stated that there will
12,000
REVERSE REPO RATE 5.25% 7.50% 10,000
likely not be any increase to the policy rates, 8,000
CRR 6.00% 6.00% provided inflation moderates as is expected. 6,000
The repo rate is currently 8.5%. 4,000
INR Crore
INFLATION 9.47% 9.34% 2,000
0
• The Department of Industrial Policy and
2005 - 06
2006 - 07
2007 - 08
2008 - 09
2009 - 10
2010 - 11
April - Oct 2011
TREASURy BOND RATE 7.19% 8.39%
Promotion (DIPP) recorded FDI inflow for the
FIxED DEPOSIT (= 1yEAR) 8.50% 9.25% period April to October, 2011 in Housing &
Real Estate at INR 2,130 crores; which is
FOREIGN ExCHANGE 2/3rd in volume as compared to years 2008- 130 BsE sensex & Realty Index
INR - USD 45.02 54.96 09 and 2009-10. The Housing and 120
INR- EURO 59.12 71.52
Construction contribution to the total FDI has 110
also reduced to 2.31% compared to 7% in the 100
previous financial year. 90
80
RETuRN ON AlTERNATIVE INVEsTMENTs • In 4Q 2011, Indian Rupee (INR) depriciated 70
further by approximately 10% against the US
1-Aug-11
7-Aug-11
13-Aug-11
19-Aug-11
25-Aug-11
31-Aug-11
6-Sep-11
12-Sep-11
18-Sep-11
24-Sep-11
30-Sep-11
6-Oct-11
12-Oct-11
18-Oct-11
24-Oct-11
30-Oct-11
5-Nov-11
11-Nov-11
17-Nov-11
23-Nov-11
29-Nov-11
5-Dec-11
11-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
23-Dec-11
29-Dec-11
Dec-10 Dec-11 YoY %
Dollar to close at INRs 54.40 to 1.00 USD on
Change
29th December 2011. The INR also weakened * Rebase to 100
Note: As of 1st August 2011
BSE Sensex Realty Index
GOLD 20,496 28,041 36.81% against the Euro dropping by approximately
5% to close the quarter at INRs INR 70.99 to 115
Exchange Rates
SILVER 45,346 51,168 12.84% 1.00 Euro. 110
EQUITy (BSE 105
• Qualified Foreign Investor (QFIs) can now
SENSEx) 20,389 15,836 -22.33% 100
directly invest in the Indian Equity Market. The
95
REALTy INDEx 2,856 1,497 -47.57% investment limit has been aggregated to 5 and
10% for individual and QFIs of their paid up
90
capital of the Indian company that they 85
1-Aug-11
7-Aug-11
13-Aug-11
19-Aug-11
25-Aug-11
6-Sep-11
12-Sep-11
18-Sep-11
24-Sep-11
30-Sep-11
6-Oct-11
12-Oct-11
18-Oct-11
24-Oct-11
30-Oct-11
5-Nov-11
11-Nov-11
17-Nov-11
23-Nov-11
29-Nov-11
5-Dec-11
11-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
23-Dec-11
29-Dec-11
establish in India.
US$ Euro
* Rebase to 100
Note: As of 1st August 2011
Source: Colliers International India Research
www.colliers.com
3. THE KNOWLEDGE | 4Q 2011 | Office | MUMbai
MuMBAI
AVAIlABlE supplY IN pRIME AREAs
• During 4Q 2011, more than 10.5 million sq ft of
grade “A” office space was available for Most Navi Mumbai 7%
Goregoan / JVLR 8%
kalina 1%
of this available stock was concentrated in Powai 5%
Andheri, Lower Parel and Thane in the form Worli / Prabhadevi 1%
Thane / LBS 21%
of IT / ITeS office space.
Malad 5%
• No major new projects / phases of projects
CBD 1%
were completed this quarter in Mumbai.
Increased cost of construction due to high Lower Parel 22%
inflation and interest rates has delayed the Andheri East 24%
delivery of many under construction projects BkC 5%
by a few quarters. No new projects were
launched during 4Q 2011.
MUMBAI • Demand for commercial properties was
4Q 2011 GRADE ‘A’ AND GRADE’B’
restrained as occupiers were cautious about RENTAl VAluEs
committing to occupy real estate space, due to
CITY OffICE BAROMETER the uncertainty in the economic scenario. 300
Transaction volumes thus decreased. 250
3Q 2011 4Q 2011 200
• In a recent transaction, HDIL was reported to
INR Per Sq ft Per Month
150
VACANCY have sold a 15.5-acre land parcel located at 100
Turbhe.
ABsORpTION 50
0
• Rental values for grade ‘A’ office space
CBD
Andheri East
BkC
Lower Parel
Malad
Navi Mumbai
Powai
Worli/Prabhdevi
Goregaon / JVLR
kalina
Thane / LBS
Andheri East (IT)
Lower Parel (IT)
Malad (IT)
Navi Mumbai (IT)
Powai (IT)
Goregaon / JVLR (IT)
Thane / LBS (IT)
CONsTRuCTION
remained stable in almost all the SBD
RENTAl VAluE locations. However, CBD and few peripheral
markets such as Navi Mumbai, Thane and Grade A Grade B
Goregaon observed marginal downward
pressures on rentals in the range of 2 to 5%.
GRADE ‘A’ AVERAGE RENTAl VAluE • Going forward rental values are expected to pRIME OffICE spACE RENTAl TREND
remain under pressure due to prevailing
245
economic sentiment and lesser demand.
420
Forecast
370
210
• The State Government has hiked the ready 320
175
reckoner rates by 5 to 25% in various areas 270
INR per Sq ft per Month
220
140
with effect from 1 Jan 2012. 170
105 120
INR per Sq ft per Month
70
70
20
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
35 4Q2011
0 CBD Andheri East Malad BkC
3Q2009
4Q2010
2Q2008
4Q2008
2Q2009
4Q2009
2Q2012
4Q2012
3Q2008
3Q2012
2Q2010
1Q2008
1Q2009
3Q2010
2Q2011
1Q2012
4Q2011
3Q2011
1Q2010
1Q2011
Lower Parel Navi Mumbai Powai Worli /
Prabhadevi
Goregaon kalina Thane / LBS
/ JVLR
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
CLIENT BUILDING NAME AREA LOCATION TRANSACTION TyPE
(SQ. FT.)
Dow Chemical Godrej IT Park 55,000 Vikhroli Lease
E Clinical Works Boomerang 75,000 Andheri Lease
Franklin Templeton India Bulls Financial Centre 40,000 Lower Parel Lease
L’Oreal India Mighty Majestic 80,000 Chembur Lease
Vodafone One India Bull 50,000 Lower Parel Lease
Source: Colliers International India Research
COllIERs INTERNATIONAl | p. 3
4. THE KNOWLEDGE | 4Q 2011 | Office | DeLhi
DElhI
AVAIlABlE supplY IN pRIME AREAs
• In 4Q 2011 approximately 1.2 million sq. ft.
of grade ‘A’ office space was available for Connaught Place 2%
sale/lease. Most of this available stock was Nehru Place 10%
concentrated in suburban business districts
such as Jasola and Saket.
Saket 29%
• A mixed use project in CBD, “Capitol Point”
developed by DLF Ltd was completed this
quarter, adding about 0.07 million sq ft Jasola 59%
of grade ‘A’ office space to Delhi’s total
inventory.
• In this quarter the National Buildings
Construction Corporation Ltd (NBCC) launched
DELHI a commercial project “NBCC Plaza” at Okhla,
4Q 2011 GRADE ‘A’ AND GRADE’B’
and Parsavnath Group started construction of RENTAl VAluEs
a commercial grade ‘A’ project in Connaught
CITY OffICE BAROMETER Place along kasturba Gandhi Marg. 400
350
300
3Q 2011 4Q 2011 • Amid global and domestic economic 250
uncertainties, moderate demand was observed 200
VACANCY in all of the micro-markets. A minor correction
INR per Sq Ft per Month
150
in the range of 1 to 2% was observed in rental 100
ABsORpTION
values of grade ‘A’ office space across all of 50
CONsTRuCTION the micro-markets. 0
Nehru Place
Jasola
Saket
Netaji Subhash
Place
Connaught
RENTAl VAluE • Looking forward, demand is likely to witness
Grade A Grade B
moderate growth, however, owing to limited
grade ‘A’ supply the rentals are expected to
remain largely stable across all the micro
markets.
GRADE ‘A’ AVERAGE RENTAl VAluE pRIME OffICE spACE RENTAl TREND
• The Delhi cabinet has hiked the circle rates
280
for the second time this year. The rates has 450
245
Forecast
been revised from 100 to 250% in areas 400
210
falling under various categories. Earlier this 350
year in February 2011, the circle rates were
300
175
250
140 increased upto 100%. The increase in circle 200
INR per Sq ft per Month
105 rates resulted in very limited activity in resale 150
INR per Sq ft per Month
70 commercial markets as the margins went 100
35 down significantly due to higher capital gain 50
0
tax and stamp duty.
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2008
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2009
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2010
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
0
4Q2012
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2012
3Q2012
2Q2008
Nehru Place Jasola Cannaught Saket
place
Netaji Subhash
MARKET TRANsACTIONs
CLIENT BUILDING NAME AREA LOCATION TRANSACTION TyPE
(SQ. FT.)
Birla Sun Life Aggarwal Tower 10,000 Rajendra Place Lease
HRD Vijaya Building 24,000 Connaught Place Lease
L&T DCM Building 19,000 Connaught Place Lease
Red Hat Copia 8,000 Jasola Lease
Wipro Mohan Cooperative 60,000 Mohan Cooperative Lease
Source: Colliers International India Research
p. 4 | COllIERs INTERNATIONAl