Germany's Progress on Renewable Energy

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Dr. Harry Lehmann
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Elements of a sustainable Development
“New Green Deal”

Nachhaltige
Landwirtschaft

Stabiles Finanzsystem
Ressourcenproduktivität
Faktor 10 - X

Neues
Wohlstandsmodell

Erneuerbare Energien
Aus- / Fortbildung
Energieeffizienz

Technologie Transfer
Globale freie
Kommunikation
(Internet)

“Grüne” Chemie
Mobilität

Wasser Management
Equity

Infrastruktur
Source: Harry Lehmann, 2004

Germany´s Progress on Renewable Energy

Goals of energy and climate policy
Timeline 2050; All relevant sectors; Specific Goals, over 100 specific Measures, Funding

4



100%

5

Phase out of the individual nuclear power plants

2011

2015

2017

2019

2021

2022

total
Power in net output

cut-off in MW

8.422*

1.275

*2,1 GW nuclear power

1.284

1.329

out of service since 2008

4.018

4.039

20.367


Amendment to the Atomic Energy Act
Gradual phasing out of nuclear power
7 oldest plants + Krümmel:
Immediate decommissioning
Gradual phasing out of
nuclear power by 2022
Shutdown years:
2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022

03.06.2013 | Klaus Müschen, German Federal Environment Agency

Source: UBA

7

Energiewende historical....

Limits to growth



Energiewende

1973

Oilcrisis
Club of Rome
„Die Grenzen
des
Wachstums“

1979

Harrisbourgh
Energiewende
Wachstum und Wohlstand
ohne Erdöl und Uran
Öko-Institut 1979

1985

Die
Energiewende
ist möglich
Für eine neue
Energiepolitik der
Kommunen
Öko-Institut 1985

1986

1989

Tschernobyl
EUROSOLAR

Unification

Institutions

„3S Pfad“

Anti-AKW-Bewegung; Gründung der GRÜNEN


9
9


Energiewende
Energiewende

1990

•
•
•
•
•
•

1992

1995 1997

2000
2010

2010
2011

ENERGIEWENDE AUF DEM WEG
1990 Stromeinspeisegesetz
1990 ff Local and regional Energykonzepts
1992 Rio-Conference UNFCCC
- Goal
1997 Kyoto-Protokoll
2000 EEG – first Phase Out „Treaty“ – ETS EU
2006 40% Goal for Germany

2010: Integriertes Klima- und Energieprogramm (IKEP)

10


Energiewende
Energiewende
BERICHTERSTATTUNG:
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Erneuerbare und Energieeffizienz
für ALLE Anwendungen (Strom, Wärme, Kraftstoffe)!
ENK

Langfristziel bis 2050

Maßnahmen
bis 2022: Atomausstieg

Novell des EEG

EE

Ausbau der Energieeffizienz

Netz

Novelle EEG
Bundesnetzpanung

2011: Gesetzespaket zur Energiewende

11


Measures to accelerate the
transformation of our energy system
Atomic Energy Act (AtG)
Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)
Grid Expansion Acceleration Act (NABEG)
Energy Industry Act (EnWG)
Ordinance on the Award of Public Contracts (VgV)
Energy and Climate Fund
Building Code on "Climate-friendly development"
Key points on energy efficiency
Combined Heat and Power Act

12

dir. 2009/28/EC for renewable energy promotion
- main features

o European and national targets for renewable energy deployment
o National action plan for renewable deployment
Main policy instruments
Yearly targets till 2020
All relevant technologies

o Biennial monitoring report to Commission
Detailed documentation of RES sources and development
Action taken to comply with Nation Action Plan

o Common measures between member states
Common power plant construction
Exchange of electricity production
Common use of instruments

o Reduction of obstructions
Access to power supply system
Registration of power plant
Information und training
Administrative

o Sustainability criteria for bio fuels
o Guaranties of origin
13

Renewable Energy Sources Act – EEG
- basic and necessary features

o priority connection of installations
o priority purchase and distribution of electricity
o guaranteed feed-in tariffs
o independence of public budgets low transfer costs
o low transfer costs
o “Exclusive-use” principle
o Experience and Impact Report to German Parliament

14

Renewable Energy Sources Act
- § 1 Goals

General purpose
facilitate a sustainable energy system,
for climate and environmental protection,
reduce (also external) cost of energy supply,
conserve fossil fuels and
promote development of REN technology

share of RES-E on electricity use
EEG 2000
substantial increase of RES-E
foster Germany’s RES deployment goals
EEG 2004
until 2010/20: increase to at least 12.5/20% of electricity consumption
EEG 2009
until 2020 increase to at least 30% and continuous further increase
EEG 2012
no later than
at least

2020
35%

2030
50%

2040
65%

2050
80%
15

RES-share of total final energy consumption

Source: Ministry of Environment: Renewable Energy Sources in Figures – April 2013



17

Ic.) Aktuelle EE-Statistik:
Zubau installierter Leistung Onshore-Wind

18

Ic.) Aktuelle EE-Statistik:
Zubau installierter Leistung Photovoltaik

19

Share of RES of German energy consumption


GHG Reduction using Renewable Energies


Investment in RES-installations


Revenues from operation of RES-installations


Employment in Germany’s renewable energy sector
2004 – 2012


Ownership of RES-installations in Germany

Project Managers

Private Citizen

The four largest
Electricity Suppliers
other
Electricity Suppliers

Funds, Banks
Trade
Farmers
other

Accumulated public funding of energy sources
(billion Euro)

Hard coal
Lignite
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Renewables

26

Effectiveness versus expected profit
wind energy - 2004
20%

Effectiveness indicator

ESFixed Price

ESMarket Option

15%

DE

10%

AT

IE

5%
SE

BEWallonia

FR

BEFlanders

UK

IT

FI

0%
0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Annual expected profit [€ Cent/kWh]
Source:

Feed-in tariffs

Quota/TGC

Tender

Tax incentives/rebates

27

Policies for RES-E support – EU27

Source: Ministry of Environment: Renewable Energy Sources in Figures – July 2011

28

Development electricity cost for households

29

Development electricity cost for households

30

Composition of electricity price for households

31

Composition of “costs” of EEG

32

Development electricity cost for industry

Industriestrompreise in D (cent per kWh)
12

10

8

6

4

2

0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

33

Renewable energies

Cost shares for one kilowatt hour (kWh) of electricity
for household customers in Germany
Additional costs for customers are only about 1 Eurocent per kWh or
about 3 Euros per month per household.

Source: BMU publication „Renewable energy sources in figures“

Renewable energies

External costs of electricity generation
for various options in Germany

PV plant: system price and EEG feed-in tariffs

Source:
BSW-Solar

36

PV-electricity generation costs and market price
€/kWh
1,0

900 h/a:
0,60 €/kWh

0,8
1800 h/a:
0,30 €/kWh

0,6
0,4
Photovoltaics

0,2

Utility peak power
Bulk power
Source:
RWE Energie AG,
RSS GmbH

0,0
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

37

Development electricity production cost

38

Development of differential costs of renewable
electricity generation in Germany, 2010 to 2050

Water
Photovoltaics
Biomass/Renewable methane
Total

Wind
Imports of energy
Geothermal energy

Source – H. Ossenbrink JRC 2013

Slide 3-cents / kwh

lead scenario - differential costs
- electricity production

Source: DLR et al: Lead study 2010

42

lead scenario - differential costs
- all sectors


43

lead scenario - cumulated differential costs
- electricity, heating and fuels


44

„Energiewende“ TODAY
A triple approach - 100 measures in the three areas
1. Renewable

energy sources:

• Rapid, continuous expansion
• Cost-efficient and environmentally friendly
2. Future

grids:

3. Efficiency:

• Flexible and powerful

• Reduce energy consumption

• Integration of electricity

• Ensure efficiency

from renewable sources


Expanding the grids
Grid development plan for
a functioning single
European electricity market
Objective:
□ An interlinked EU
electricity grid
□ Basis for an electricity
supply almost entirely
from renewables
by 2050

Source: BMU

46


Amendment to the Energy Industry Act (EnWG)
and Grid Expansion Acceleration Act (NABEG)
Fundamental principles for smart meters and smart grids
Coordinated grid planning for transmission grids
Transparency and public participation
Specialist planning at Federal Government level
specifies route corridors for long-distance and crossborder electricity lines
Use of underground cables
in the 110 kV range
Cluster connection of
offshore wind farms
Source: BMU


47


Necessary
extensions of the
extra high voltage
transmission
network required
by further
development of
wind power
(Source: dena Grid
Study)

Source: ISET,
IWET, dena
Grid Study
2005, own
illustration
= 1 GW offshore

(MW)

48



49


The Energy and Climate Fund (ECF)
Growing to more than €3bn per annum by 2013
Funded from the auction proceeds for emissions trading certificates
Allocation:
□ Renewable energies
□ Energy efficiency
□ Building modernisation
□ National and international climate protection
□ Environmental projects and research
□ Electro-mobility
□ Compensation of electricity prices
for energy-intensive companies


Source: BMU

50

„Energiewende“ today

Source: Agora

Scenarios with 100% REN Supply

Limits to growth




54

energy system based on renewable sources

eMethan

Harry Lehmann (2009)

Energy System based on renewables
Benefits of using renewable energies
Climate protection
Independence of fossil fuel imports
Reduction of (international) conflicts
Low risks for humans and environment
Local economic and social development
especially for poor countries
Fostering industrial development
and export opportunities

RES promotion should harvest all benefits

Archetypes of 100% REN

Centralized / big
Decentralized / small


International / far away

Centralized / big

National / Local / nearby


Archetypen einer EE Versorgung

Centralized / big






?

?
Centralized / big


?

?
?
?
?

?


?


Three “archetypical” UBA scenarios
• “Local Energy Autarky” (2013, now published):
• Small-scale decentralized energy systems use locally available RE
• No grid connection to outside
• “Regions Network” (2010):
• German Regions use their RE potentials extensively
• Electricity exchange throughout Germany
• Only small share of power imports from neighbouring countries
• “International Large Scale” (2013, under progress):
• Germany‘s and Europe‘s electricity supply is based on all RE
potentials in Germany, Europe (large-scale technology projects)
• High import share via a well-developed intercontinental
transmission grid


Centralized / big



Local
Autarky




„Plusenergybuildings“

Rolf Disch

IBA Hamburg – Zukunftskonzept Erneuerbares Wilhelmsburg

Project area of the IBA Hamburg

INTERNATIONALE BAUAUSSTELLUNG IBA HAMBURG GMBH


100%
85%



Intern.
Coop

Local
Autarky


Centralized / big




Trans Med Renewable Energy Collaboration - TREC
ISuSI

Solar
Wind
Hydro
Geothermal
Biomass
EURO-MED
possible further
interconnections
Gas pipelines used
for Hydrogen

Source: TREC Collaboration und Harry Lehmann, 2004


Intern.
Coop

Local
Autarky

Regions
Coop


Centralized / big




Energy Demand in diff. sectors
Germany 2008 and 2050
974

1000
900

1000

898

900

800

800

700

700
557

600
TWh

TWh

600

667

500

500

400

400

300

427

300

200

135

200
100

100
35%

22%

38%

6%

5%

106

76
33%

0

0

2008

2050

52%

8%

Scenario „Regionen Verbund D – 2050“
Installed Capacity GW
23,3
6,4
5,2

Photovoltaic
Wind energy onshore

45

120

Wind energy offshore
Hydropower
Geothermal energy
Waste biomass (biogas)

60

Feed-in of the renewable energies (2006-2009)
Mittlere, monatliche EE-Einspeisung im Vergleich (2006-2009)
90

Geothermie

Laufwasser

Onshore-Wind

Offshore-Wind

Photovoltaik

Aug

Okt

80
70

50
40
30
20
10
0

2006
2007
2008
2009

Leistung (GW)

60

Jan

Feb

März

April

Mai

Juni

Juli

Sept

Nov

Monat

Average, monthly feed-in of renewable electricity
from generation capacities in 2050
based on the meteorological years 2006-2009

Dez
© FhG IWES

Feed-in of renewable energy and load – per month (winter)
EE-Einspeisung und Last (Meteo-Jahr 2007, Januar)
160

Geothermie

Laufwasser

Onshore-Wind

Offshore-Wind

PV

Basislast

Gesamtlast mit Lastmanagement

140

Leistung (GW)

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Tag

© FhG IWES

Feed-in [GW] of all RE and the load curve
Example „Winter month“ (December) for the feed-in of renewable energies in
2050, based on the meteorological year 2007

Feed-in of renewable energies and load – per month (summer)
EE-Einspeisung und Last (Meteo-Jahr 2007, August)
160

Geothermie

Laufwasser

Onshore-Wind

Offshore-Wind

PV

Basislast

Gesamtlast mit Lastmanagement

140

Leistung (GW)

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Tag

© FhG IWES

Feed-in [GW] of all RE and load
Example „Summer month“ (August) for the feed-in of renewable energies in 2050,
based on the meteorological year 2007

Storage needed
Gravitational Storage

Chemical Storage
H2 or eMethan (SolarMethan)

Electric Storage

Speicher im Größenvergleich

Residual load (GW)

Total residual load (with load management and pump storage) in the year 2050,
based on data from the meteorological year 2007

pumped Storage
(today)
42 Mio. electric
vehicles (theory)

pumped Storage
Norway (theory)
Capacity gas grid
(today)

82

energy storage by linking the power grid with natural gas grid

4 H2 + CO2 ↔ CH4 + H2O

[Specht et al, 2010, Sterner, 2009]

Role in a Future Energy System

Liquid

Der erste Schritt im Rahmen von Audi balanced mobility ist das e-gas Projekt
Entscheidung zum Kauf von vier OffshoreWindkrafträdern

Heutige Technologie

Vorstandsfreigabe im Dezember 2010
Vier 3,6 MW OWKA mit 53 GWh Strom
Gesamtleistung p.a.
Entscheidung des e-gas-Projekts
Bau einer 6,3 MW e-gas Anlage mit

Als geeigneter Standort für unser e-gas Projekt haben wir den Nordwesten e-gas p.a.
1.000t
Deutschlands ausgewählt
Layout Anlage Werlte

Kooperationspartner:

Windpark
6

Entscheidung für Werlte wegen:
Räumlicher Nähe zu OffshoreWindpark
Nähe zur CO2-Quelle (Biogasanlage der Fa. EWE)
Infrastruktur

Werlte

13

Japan
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パ
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Shikoku

Chubu

Source: Harry Lehmann et.al. (2002)


Intern.
Coop

Local
Autarky

Region
Coop


Centralized / big





Centralized / big


D-I

Intern.
Coop

Local
Autarky

Region
Coop
N-C



Steps... for 100%

Limits to growth


100% REN – Steps...
Binding emission targets and/or targets for renewable energy supply

Adjusting legal and economic framework conditions (e.g. FIT, MiC)

Efficient and intelligent use of energy

Alignment of spatial planning (Enough place for Wind)

Considering other environmental constrains (e.g. Biodiv)

Building infrastructure (adapted grid and storage systems)

Considering other constrains – Landarea and Ressources

Research & Development & Demonstration

Information & Training and Capacity Building

Information & Training and Capacity Building
Obtaining social support for the energy transition


Measures to accelerate the
transformation of our energy system
Atomic Energy Act (AtG)
Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)
Grid Expansion Acceleration Act (NABEG)
Energy Industry Act (EnWG)
Ordinance on the Award of Public Contracts (VgV)
Energy and Climate Fund
Building Code on "Climate-friendly development"
Key points on energy efficiency
Combined Heat and Power Act

101

„Energiewende“: A triple approach
100 measures in the three areas
1. Renewable

energy sources:

• Rapid, continuous expansion
• Cost-efficient and environmentally friendly
2. Future

grids:

3. Efficiency:

• Flexible and powerful

• Reduce energy consumption

• Integration of electricity

• Ensure efficiency

from renewable sources

100 % regions

Limits to growth



Active regions for REN

Über 50% sind aktiv, um die Weichen
in Richtung 100% EE zu stellen.

104

RES dynamic in Germany

More than 50% have set
off!

Dr. Peter Moser Ι Ι Folie 105

How can regions meet the target?
100% RES scenarios for the district of Osnabrück

3.900 GWh/a electricity from RES
(150%)

2.300 GWh/a heat from RES
(100%)


EnergieRegion Aller-Leine-Tal
1.

The A.L.T

−
−

Consists of 8 (joint)communities
75.000 inhabitants, 765 qkm

−
−

Target: get a 100%-RES+Region
107
Good-Practice example for participation of inhabitants 107
Dr. Peter Moser Ι Ι Folie

1. Development in the A.L.T.
−
−
−
−
−
−
−

2009/10: climate protection concept for 114 municipal
buildings
implementation of RES in touristical aspects:
„EnergieRoute“ for cyclists with 44 stations
2010/11: energy study for the hole A.L.T.
2010/11: initiation of an energy cooperative; not successful
2011: study of geothermal energy in the A.L.T.
Mayor is part of the „Echo-Gruppe“ (consulting group) of the
project 100ee-Regions
2012: Einstellung eines Klimaschutzmanagers
108

2. Datas for RES in the A.L.T.
plants
install. capacity
biogas
18
10,13 MW
wind
54
87,62 MW
water
5
5,39 MW
photovoltaic
710
10,21 MW
solarthermal
10.350 qm
sum of the last 15 years: around

investigations netto ca.
€ 42,0 Mio.
€ 127,5 Mio.
€ 0,1 Mio
€ 26,5 Mio.
€ 13,3 Mio.
€ 209 Mio. (estimation)

2.800 € for each inhabitant in the A.L.T.
109

4. Energy balance for the A.L.T.
Demand in
Electricity

Exess

(in 2010)

GWH
267,1*

supply by RES in GWH
Water
28,5 (10,7 %)
Wind
169,7 (63,5 %)
Biogas
80,1 (30 %)
Photovoltaic
8,4 (3,1 %)
Sum
286,7 (107,3%)

19,6 GWH

* Electricity demand in 2009: 251 GWH / in 2008: 261 GWH / 2007: 276 GWH

110

5. Energy study for the A.L.T.

Tagets of the study:
Answer the question if 100% RES are possible
Show the potentials for RES and energy savings in the A.L.T.
Contents of the study:
Actual status of energy demand in electricity and heat sector
Status of RES production
Regional value creation from RES and energy savings
Potential analysis of RES, geothermal energy and wood
Development of model projects
111

5. The study: first results

Energy demand in 2008:
Electricity: 261 GWH
Heat:
828 GWH
Mobility: 851 GWH
Sum:
1.940 GWH

112

Success Factors
Key participants
Strong partners in politics and
economy
On-site energy supplier
Networking with other participants
Mix of renewable energy sources
Sustainable use of resources
Sufficient financial resources
Competent process management
Regional energy sectors
Convince the centre of RES
Sources: Author‘s research, NOVA Institut, BAUM, u.a.

1 ton per cap and year

Limits to growth


greenhouse gas neutral Germany in 2050 - GHG emissions
in million tonnes of CO2-eq
Source category
1. Energy

1990

2009

Scenario 2050

1.048

820

1.1 Energy sector

428

342

1.2 Manufacturing
industries and construction

177

102

1.3 Transport

185

188

12

25

8

9

1.4 Other combustion
systems

208

143

1.5 Fugitive emissions

30

11

2. Industrial processes

95

75

13

3. Solvents and other
product uses

4

2

1

83

69

31-35

5. LULUCF

- 28

17

13

6. Waste

43

12

3

1,245

995

61-65

1.3.1 International air
transport
1.3.2 International
maritime transport

4. Agriculture

Total

0

greenhouse gas neutral Germany in 2050
1400

GHG emissions in million tonnes of CO2-eq

1200

1000

Waste
LULUCF

800

Agriculture
600

Industrial processes, Solvents and
ot her product uses
Transport

400

- 95%
200

0
1990
-200

2010

Scenario 2050

Energy (wit hout Transport)

Need for a Systemic Policy Approach
Climate Change Mitigation and Resource Productivity

Liquid

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„Elements of a greenhouse gas neutral society“
10th and 11th of October in Berlin, Germany
•How can an industrialized society sharply cuts is greenhouse gas emissions? We
will discuss diverse approaches and measures.
•The conference will include sessions on:
–
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Energy supply based on 100% renewable energy sources
Approaches in sectors such as traffic, agriculture and food, waste & resources
Industrial process related emissions
Concepts and challenges in civil aviation and maritime transport
Concepts and challenges: regional to local scale

•More information on www.ghgns.eu

100% and more ...
is possible

Limits to growth


Germany's Progress on Renewable Energy

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