2. Some Facts About Guns in America
40-45% of all households have a gun.
About 300 million guns.
12,600 intentional gun homicides/year (4.2 per 100,000
people) (2007 data).
17,350 gun suicides/year.
600 fatal gun accidents/year.
Serious nonfatal injuries/year: 7000 accidents, 30,000
assault, 3600 suicide attempts.
300,000 nonhomicide gun crimes/year (25% of robberies, 5%
of assaults, very few rapes).
80,000-2.5 million defensive gun uses year.
3. Some Facts About the Important
Gun Laws in America
Home possession of rifles and shotguns legal
everywhere.
Home possession of handguns was legal
almost everywhere, except Chicago and D.C.
Now legal everywhere, given Supreme Court
decisions.
◦ but apparently a hassle in Mass., N.J., N.Y.
6. Asking the Right Question
Ask: What are the costs and benefits of a
proposed policy?
Not “What are the costs and benefits of
the regulated activity?”
Not “Would we be better off in a __-free
world?”
8. Considering Substitution Effects
What happens if you ban “Saturday Night Specials”
(cheap, small, mostly low-caliber handguns)? What would
criminals who would have committed crimes with SNSs
do?
◦ Naive view: They won’t commit gun crimes.
◦ Less naive view: Some won’t comply with the SNS ban,
but others won’t commit gun crimes.
◦ Sounder view: Some won’t comply with the SNS ban,
some won’t commit gun crimes, and some would switch
to other guns, which might be more lethal.
9. Counting Actual Behavior
Uniform Crime Reports (police data) vs.
National Crime Victimization Survey
(survey data).
Newspaper stories about gun crimes vs.
newspaper stories about defensive gun
uses.
10. Disaggregating Possible Effects
Don’t ask “how will handgun ban affect
crime and death?” Ask how it will affect:
◦ Gun accidents.
◦ Gun suicides.
◦ Gun homicides and crimes at home.
◦ Gun homicides and crimes in public
by small-time criminals
by serious criminals
by mass shooters.
◦ Homicides and crimes averted by defensive users
at home
in public.
11. Are Guns Effective for Self-Defense?
Defender injury rates, by defender’s weapon:
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0% Total
25.0%
20.0% No
15.0% defense
Knife
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Robbery Assault
Which deters more: “Protected by Armed Patrol”
◦ or “Protected by Unarmed Patrol”?
12. Who Are the Gun Killers?
80% of murder arrestees have adult
arrest records.
70% have adult conviction records.
Most gun killers are probably unlikely to
abide by gun control laws.
Gun robbers are also probably unlikely to
abide by gun control laws.
13. Comparative Evidence?
Killias et al., Guns, Violent Crime, and Suicide
in 21 Countries, 43 Can. J. Criminology 429
(2001).
No statistically significant correlation between
gun ownership and total
suicide, homicide, assault, robbery.
Correlation for suicide with gun, homicide
with gun (of women only), assault with
gun, robbery with gun.
14. Comparative Evidence–
Continental Europe
Country Homicide rate Gun Ownership
United States 5.4 40%
Hungary 2.22 2%
Finland 1.98 39%
Sweden 1.87 24%
Poland 1.79 2%
France 1.65 30%
Denmark 1.21 19%
Netherlands 1.2 2%
Greece 1.12 11%
Germany 0.93 30%
Norway 0.81 36%
Austria 0.8 17%
15. Comparative Evidence?
Confounding factors—culture, demographics,
etc.
Famous Seattle/Vancouver study:
◦ Seattle 11.3 homicides per100,000 people
◦ Vancouver 6.9
But among whites
◦ Seattle 6.2
◦ Vancouver 6.4
Other comparisons (2010/11 data)
◦ Manitoba 3.95
◦ Saskatchewan 3.4
◦ Alberta 2.45
◦ British Columbia 1.85
◦ Minnesota 1.4
◦ N. Dakota 2.5
◦ Montana 2.7
◦ Idaho 1.8
◦ Washington 2.35
16. Comparative Evidence?
Even if greater gun ownership caused more
homicide or crime,
does it follow that gun control would
decrease homicide or crime?
Gun control laws may be followed by the
otherwise law-abiding.
But less likely by criminals,
and where 300 million guns are already in
private hands, criminals are likely to get
them.
18. Regulatory Options—“What” Bans
Fully automatic weapons.
Semi-automatic “assault weapons.”
Handguns.
Cheap, small “Saturday Night Specials.”
All guns except “personalized” guns.
19. Assault Weapons Bans
“The term ‘semiautomatic assault weapon’ means—
“(A) any of the firearms, or copies or duplicates of the
firearms in any caliber, known as—
“(i) Norinco, Mitchell, and Poly Technologies Avtomat
Kalashnikovs (all models); [other items omitted — ed.]
“(B) a semiautomatic rifle that has an ability to accept a
detachable magazine and has at least 2 of—
“(i) a folding or telescoping stock;
“(ii) a pistol grip that protrudes conspicuously beneath
the action of the weapon;
“(iii) a bayonet mount;
“(iv) a flash suppressor or threaded barrel designed to
accommodate a flash suppressor; and
“(v) a grenade launcher ….”
20. Assault Weapons Bans
“In fact, the assault weapons ban will
have no significant effect either on the
crime rate or on personal security.
Nonetheless, it is a good idea ....
“Its only real justification is not to reduce
crime but to desensitize the public to the
regulation of weapons in preparation for
their ultimate confiscation.” Charles
Krauthammer, Washington Post, Apr. 5, 1996.
21. Regulatory Options–“Where” Bans
Bans on concealed carry.
Bans on carrying in particular kinds of
places.
◦ churches;
◦ places that sell alcohol.
22. Regulatory Options—
“How”/“When” Restrictions
Requirements to keep guns locked.
Possibly only when young children are present.
The evidence “is insufficient to determine the
effectiveness of the laws in reducing violence or
unintentional … injury and other violent
outcomes.”
Waiting periods.
“*T+he evidence is insufficient to determine the
effectiveness of waiting periods.”
24. Treating Guns Like Cars
No federal licensing or registration for
cars.
Any person may use a car on his own
property without license or registration.
Any adult may get a license to use a car in
public places
◦ by passing a fairly simple test that nearly all
can pass.
25. The Second Amendment
“A well regulated Militia, being necessary to
the security of a free State,
“the right of the people to keep and bear
Arms,
shall not be infringed.”
Along with the rest of the Bill of
Rights, originally written to bind only the
federal government.
Fourteenth Amendment, in 1868, has been
interpreted as applying most of the Bill of
Rights to state and local governments.
26. “The Right of the People”
First Amendment: “the right of the
people peaceably to assemble.”
Fourth Amendment: “the right of the
people to be secure in their persons,
houses, papers, and effects”
Ninth Amendment: “shall not be
construed to … disparage other* rights+
retained by the people.”
27. “To Keep and Bear Arms”
“*N+o Papist … may have or keep in his
House … any Arms.”
“*T+he Prohibition contained ... in this Act, of
having, keeping, bearing, or wearing any
Arms or Warlike Weapons ... shall not extend
... to any Officers or their Assistants,
employed in the Execution of Justice ...”
Right of citizens to “bear arms in defense of
themselves *himself+ and the state.”
28. “Being Necessary”
“*T+he trial of facts in the vicinity where they happen, is so
essential to the security of the life, liberty and estate of the
citizen, that no crime ... ought to be tried in any other county
than that in which it is committed” (N.H. 1784).
“The freedom of deliberation ... in either house of the
legislature, is so essential to the rights of the people, that it
cannot be the foundation of any accusation or prosecution
...” (Mass. 1780).
“In suits at common law, ... the trial by jury, as one of the
best securities to the rights of the people, ought to remain
inviolate” (Madison).
“*T+he freedom of the press, as one of the great bulwarks of
liberty, shall be inviolable” (Madison).
29. “Well-Regulated Militia”
Militia Act of 1792: All free white male
citizens age 18 to 45.
Current Militia Act: All male citizens age
17 to 45.
“Well-regulated” = well-functioning, well-
governed.
30. Living Constitution
Described as individual right in Fourteenth
Amendment debates.
Described as individual right by
Congress, from 1866 to 2005.
Pre-Heller survey (2008): 67% (to 30%)
believe the Second Amendment protects
individual right, after being read the text of
the provision.
Without being read the text, support is 73%
(to 20%).
31. State Constitutional Rights
Blue: Individual right (KS likely starting Nov. 2010).
WI 1998: “The people have the right to keep and bear arms for
security, defense, hunting, recreation or any other lawful
purpose.”
Yellow: Unclear (HI, VA).
Red: No individual right (CA; IA, MN; MA, MD, NJ, NY).
