The Civil Beat Poll June 2012 — Issues and Demographics
1. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 1
1,105 Likely August Voters – Margin of Error +/- 2.9%
RESULTS OF UESTIONS ASKED OF EVERY POLL PARTICIPANT
--How would you say things are going in the United States right now—are they
generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?
US
Right 43%
Wrong 47%
Unsure 10%
Total 100%
--And how about in Hawaii? Would you say that things in Hawaii are generally
going in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Hawaii
Right 41%
Wrong 51%
Unsure 8%
Total 100%
2. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 2
1,105 Likely August Voters – Margin of Error +/- 2.9%
--This August there will be primaries to determine the Democratic and Republican
Party nominees for Hawaiiʼs open U.S. Senate seat. [IN THE SECOND
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT ONLY--In addition, the Democratic primary will
select a nominee for U.S. Congress]. As you know, every Hawaii voter can choose
between voting in the Democratic or Republican primary.As you know, every
Hawaii voter can choose between voting in the Democratic or Republican
primary….are you likely to vote in the Democratic Senate primary, the Republican
Senate primary, or neither primary?
PrimaryScreen
Democratic 66%
Republican 22%
Neither 6%
Unsure 6%
Total 100%
PrimaryScreen * PartyID Crosstabulation
% within PartyID
PartyID
Democrat Republican Independent Unsure
PrimaryScreen Democratic 92% 30% 60% 42%
Republican 3% 64% 24% 16%
Neither 2% 3% 9% 16%
Unsure 2% 3% 7% 25%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
PartyID * PrimaryScreen Crosstabulation
% within PrimaryScreen
PrimaryScreen
Democratic Republican Neither Unsure
PartyID Democrat 62% 6% 20% 20%
Republican 9% 59% 13% 11%
Independent 24% 30% 46% 38%
Unsure 4% 5% 21% 32%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
3. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 3
1,105 Likely August Voters – Margin of Error +/- 2.9%
4. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 4
1,105 Likely August Voters – Margin of Error +/- 2.9%
--How do you feel about the Honolulu rail project—do you support or oppose it?
Statewide:
Rail
Support 41%
Oppose 48%
Unsure 11%
Total 100%
Oahu contrasted with other counties:
Rail * County Crosstabulation
% within County
County
Oahu Hawaii Maui Kauai Total
Rail Support 39% 45% 47% 54% 41%
Oppose 52% 41% 31% 36% 48%
Unsure 9% 14% 22% 10% 11%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
--Do you believe that same-sex couples should or should not have the legal right to
get married?
Marriage
Should 41%
Should Not 47%
Unsure 12%
Total 100%
5. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 5
1,105 Likely August Voters – Margin of Error +/- 2.9%
--When it comes to economic issues, would you be more likely to vote for a
candidate who would focus most on fixing the economy and creating jobs right
now, or for a candidate who would focus most on solving the country's long-term
problems with debt, social security, and Medicare? [Order of two alternatives
randomized].
Economy
Jobs/Economy 37%
Debt/SS/Medi 49%
Unsure 13%
Total 100%
--Do you generally approve or disapprove of Barack Obamaʼs job performance as
president?
Obama
Approve strongly 45%
Approve somewhat 17%
Disapprove somewhat 9%
Disapprove strongly 25%
Unsure 4%
Total 100%
Obama_Condensed
Approve 62%
Disapprove 34%
Unsure 4%
Total 100%
6. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 6
1,105 Likely August Voters – Margin of Error +/- 2.9%
WEIGHTED SAMPLE DEMOGRAPHICS
Congressional_District
1 50%
2 50%
Total 100%
County
Oahu 69%
Hawaii 15%
Maui 10%
Kauai 6%
Total 100%
County_CD
Oahu 1 50%
Oahu 2 19%
Hawaii 15%
Maui 10%
Kauai 6%
Total 100%
Gender
Male 46%
Female 54%
Total 100%
Age
18-29 6%
30-39 8%
40-49 12%
50-64 34%
65+ 40%
Total 100%
7. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 7
1,105 Likely August Voters – Margin of Error +/- 2.9%
Politics
Liberal/Progressive 24%
Moderate 35%
Conservative 27%
Unsure 14%
Total 100%
Party I.D.
Democrat 46%
Republican 20%
Independent 27%
Unsure 7%
Total 100%
Race/Ethnicity
Caucasian 40%
Japanese 22%
Filipino 10%
Hawaiian 8%
Chinese 7%
Hispanic/Latino 1%
Other/Mixed 13%
Total 100%
Education
No Degree 5%
High School Degree 29%
College Degree 40%
Graduate Degree 26%
Total 100%
8. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 8
1,105 Likely August Voters – Margin of Error +/- 2.9%
Religion
Catholic 28%
Evangelical/Born Again/Pentecostal 12%
Mormon 5%
Other Christian 21%
Buddhist 10%
Shinto 1%
Jewish 1%
Other 5%
None 19%
Total 100%
--Have you, or a member of your immediate family such as a spouse, sibling,
parent, or child served active military duty in Iraq or Afghanistan at any time in the
past ten years?
Military Family
Yes 16%
No 84%
Total 100%
Annual Household Income
$50,000 or less 38%
$50,000-$100,000 39%
$100,000 or More 23%
Total 100%