1. Memo
To:
From:
Re:
Date:
Interested Parties
Schatz for Senate
State of the Hawaii Senate Race
October 14, 2013
I.
OVERVIEW
Since taking office on December 27, 2012, Senator Brian Schatz has assembled an
impressive team running an effective, modern, and winning campaign. Because of the
circumstances related to his appointment, Schatz now stands as the 85th ranked Senator in
terms of seniority, and he is one of only four freshmen with a subcommittee chairmanship.
Historically, Hawaii has never voted an incumbent Senator or any Democratic member of
Congress out of office.
Conversely, Congresswoman Hanabusa has struggled since day one to establish a
winning campaign or a coherent rationale for her candidacy. Hanabusa badly trails Schatz
in fundraising and endorsements, and she has had a series of missteps evidencing that her
campaign is not up to the rigors of a Senate race.
II.
SCHATZ IS RUNNING A WINNING CAMPAIGN
A.
FUNDRAISING
In the first three quarters of 2013, Schatz raised an impressive $2.7 million, and he
has over $2 million cash on hand. Conversely, Hanabusa has barely raised over $1 million
in this cycle including nearly $230,000 that she transferred from her House campaign
account.
Schatz’s
successful
fundraising
has
drawn
national attention. National Journal
recognized Schatz as one of its campaign fundraising winners,1 while Roll Call noted that
Schatz had sent a strong message to any potential primary foe.2 On the other hand, The Hill
identified
Hanabusa
as
a
“Fundraising
Loser”
noting
that
Schatz
“again
hammered”
his
Democratic challenger in the second quarter of fundraising.3
In the third quarter of 2013, Schatz continued his fundraising dominance by raising
close to $700,000. As reported by the Honolulu Star Advertiser, however, Hanabusa
1
National Journal, 4/17/13
Roll Call, 4/11/13
3 The Hill, 7/17/13
2
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2. “struggled through a subpar quarter”
raising
an
“underwhelming”
$440,000.4
Furthemore, during the third quarter, Hanabusa spent approximately $323,000 of the
$440,000 she raised, meaning that her campaign had a staggering 73% burn rate.5
B.
ENDORSEMENTS
In a Hawaii Democratic primary, endorsements from labor unions, environmental
groups, and progressive organizations matter, and Schatz continues to dominate this aspect
of the campaign. Hawaii has one of the highest percentages of unionized workers in the
country,
and
Schatz
has
already
received
early
endorsements
from
28
unions.
Schatz’s
labor
endorsers
include
Hawaii’s
largest
union, HGEA (AFSCME) as well as the Hawaii
Building & Trades Council, the Teamsters, the State of Hawaii Organization of Police
Officers, the Hawaii Fire Fighters Association, the Hawaii Nurses Association, the National
Association of Letter Carriers, the Seafarers, and the University of Hawaii Professional
Assembly.
In addition to labor endorsements, Schatz received key endorsements from the
League of Conservation Voters, the Sierra Club, and MoveOn.org (which has nearly 40,000
members in Hawaii). To date, Schatz has received endorsements from 34 groups and
Hanabusa has only received 7 endorsements.
Most significantly, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has publicly
endorsed Schatz, and Senators Reid, Durbin, Schumer, and Bennet as well as 26 other
Senate Democrats have made campaign contributions.
C.
A WINNING TEAM
Schatz has assembled an all-star consulting and campaign team with a history of
winning races in Hawaii.
Mark
Mellman
served
as
the
pollster
for
Senator
Akaka’s
winning
primary
campaign
in
2006
as
well
as
Rep.
Tulsi
Gabbard’s
successful
primary
campaign
for
Congress in 2012. Rich Davis of Dixon Davis Media Group led the media team for Senator
Mazie
Hirono’s
successful
primary
and
general
election
campaigns
in
2012.
Ed
Peavy of
Mission
Control
served
as
the
mail
vendor
for
the
successful
Honolulu
mayor’s
race
in
2012.
Honolulu native Clay Schroers has returned to Hawaii where he is serving as the
campaign manager for Schatz. Schroers successfully managed hard fought Congressional
campaigns for Rep. Bill Owens in 2010 and Rep. Dan Maffei in 2012.
In 2007-2008, Schatz, together with his Chief of Staff Andy Winer, initiated and ran
President
Obama’s
successful
caucus
and
general
election
campaigns.
In
the
process,
4
Star Advertiser, 10/13/13
5
OpenSecrets.org (checked on 10/13/13); Civil Beat, 10/14/13
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3. Schatz and Winer added over 30,000 new Democrats to the Democratic Party of Hawaii.
President Obama continues to have favorability ratings well in excess of 70% in Hawaii,
and his in-state supporters closely identify Schatz with the Obama campaign. Conversely,
Schatz’s
principal
primary
opponent
served
as
the
lead
spokesperson
for
the
Clinton
campaign.
Schatz’s
ability
to
tap
into
the
Hawaii
Obama
campaign
structure
continues
to
the
present. Earlier this year, the Schatz campaign attracted over 500 people to an organizing
meeting,
and
these
supporters
are
poised
to
serve
as
the
backbone
of
the
campaign’s
field
operations.
II.
HANABUSA’S
CAMPAIGN
IS
UNDER
PERFORMING
Colleen
Hanabusa’s
campaign
has
failed
to
meet
nearly
every
expectation
and
benchmark it initially set, and it is badly foundering as we enter the fourth quarter of 2013.
From its inception, the Hanabusa campaign was propped up by outdated
conventional wisdom and a handful of shifting self-created arguments why it would
succeed. First, Hanabusa contended she would have the backing of labor,6 but that support
has not materialized.7
In fact, Senator Schatz, as noted above, has garnered support from 28 of the 33 labor
unions that have made endorsements –including influential endorsements from HGEA, the
Hawaii Building Trades Council, SHOPO, and the Hawaii Fire Fighters Association. In sum,
the unions endorsing Senator Schatz represent in excess of 75,000 Hawaii members, while
the unions endorsing Hanabusa have fewer than 22,000 Hawaii members.
Furthermore, 24 of the 28 unions that have endorsed Senator Schatz either
endorsed or contributed
to
Representative
Hanabusa’s
previous
campaigns,
demonstrating
that labor knows both candidates and have decisively chosen to stand with Senator Schatz.
Second,
the
Hanabusa
campaign
believed
it
would
inherit
the
lion’s
share
of
Hawaii’s
Democratic
campaign infrastructure, mostly in terms of local and national
fundraising operations as well as a campaign team. However, Senator Schatz has clearly
demonstrated he is a superior and more sophisticated fundraiser8 both in Hawaii and on
the mainland.9
Some have attempted to
brush
off
Senator
Schatz’s
fundraising
success
as
merely
a
Star Advertiser, 6/16/13, 4/23/13
Star Advertiser, 6/18/13
8 Civil Beat, 7/24/13
9 The Hill, 4/25/13
6
7
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4. consequence of his incumbency,10 while others have convinced themselves that Senator
Reid and the DSCC are responsible,11 but, while neither excuse accounts for Senator
Schatz’s
diligent,
disciplined
and
modern
approach
to
fundraising,
it’s
inarguable
that
the
Hanabusa campaign has utterly failed to meet even her modest expectations. To date,
Senator Schatz is closing in on $3 million raised, while Hanabusa will have raised barely $1
million.
Third, the Hanabusa campaign brazenly premised her candidacy on her claim to be
the
most
“experienced” candidate; but recent events have demonstrated that it is
Representative Hanabusa, not Senator Schatz, who lacks the modern political and
communications infrastructure to wage a successful Senate campaign.12 From
a
“low-key”
campaign roll out13 to
the
resignation
of
Representative
Hanabusa’s
deputy chief of staff14
after a Washington Post story exposed plans for improper coordination of an independentexpenditure,15 the clear indication is that Representative Hanabusa has failed to establish a
campaign structure capable of running a successful Senate race.
Fourth, from the outset, the Hanabusa campaign portrayed itself as the front-runner
with an insurmountable lead. In February, the Hanabusa campaign began touting a
dubious internal poll claiming a 20%+ lead on Senator Schatz.16 By June, however,
independent polling by Civil Beat showed Senator Schatz with a close lead,17 while internal
polling conducted by the respected Mark Mellman found Senator Schatz with a 1 point lead
and a 13 point lead among voters who knew both candidates.18
The downward trajectory of the Hanabusa campaign will likely continue as Senator
Schatz continues to amass a larger war chest as well as additional endorsements from labor
unions. The Hanabusa campaign faces an uphill battle with fewer resources and a lack of
institutional support.
III.
PROGRESSIVES WIN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES IN HAWAII
A.
2002-2012 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Since
2002,
Hawaii’s
electorate
has
become
more
progressive
and
more
Democratic-leaning as a result of: (1) an influx of progressive leaning voters who migrated
to Hawaii in the 1990s and; (2) the impact of President Obama.
Star Advertiser, 5/08/13
Star Advertiser, 4/22/13; 4/23/13
12 Civil Beat, 9/27/13
13 Star Advertiser, 7/02/13
14 Star Advertiser, 8/08/13
15 Washington Post, 7/27/13
16 Schatz Poll, 6/13; Star Advertiser, 3/12/13
17 Civil Beat, 7/01/13
18 Star Advertiser, 7/02/13; The Hill, 7/02/13; Politico, 7/02/13
10
11
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5. In 2002, Democrats had a 31-20 majority among members of the State House, and in
2003, Democrats had a 20-5 majority among members of the State Senate. Now,
Democrats hold an overwhelming majority of 24-1 in the State Senate and a 44-7 majority
among members of the State House.
As
Hawaii’s
electorate
has
moved
to
the
left,
progressive candidates, regardless of
ethnicity, have won every major contested Democratic primary race since 2002. Although
some pundits have theorized that ethnicity determines Democratic primaries, recent
history clearly demonstrates that progressive ideology is the more dominant factor.
Major Democratic Primary Races Since 2002
2002
Mazie Hirono defeats Ed Case in the Democratic primary for governor.
2004
Dennis Kucinich wins Maui County in
Hawaii’s
Presidential
Caucus
2006
Senator Akaka defeats Ed Case in the Democratic primary for U.S.
Senate
Mazie Hirono defeats Colleen Hanabusa in the Democratic primary for
the Second Congressional District
2010
Neil Abercrombie defeats Mufi Hannemann in the Democratic primary
for governor
Brian Schatz defeats Norman Sakamoto and Bobby Bunda in the
Democratic Primary for lieutenant governor
2012
Mazie Hirono defeats Ed Case in the Democratic primary for U.S.
Senate
Tulsi Gabbard defeats Mufi Hannemann in the Democratic primary for
the Second Congressional District
B.
SENATOR SCHATZ IS THE PROGRESSIVE CANDIDATE IN THIS RACE
Although some pundits have posited that there are few, if any, ideological
differences between Schatz and Hanabusa, that viewpoint is simply untrue. Some of the
key ideological distinctions between the two candidates are set forth in the following table:
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6. Where They Stand
Brian Schatz
Colleen Hanabusa
Co-sponsored the Medicare Drug Savings Act to make
drug companies pay a rebate to the federal
government (supported by AARP, NCPSSM)
Opposed rebate to federal government
Has pledged not to raise the retirement age or cut
benefits for Social Security or Medicare. Co-Sponsored
Harkin-Schatz Social Security Enhancement Act
Voted
in
support
of
the
Simpson
Bowles
Commission’s
recommendations that raised the retirement age and
cut benefits for Social Security
Supported the public option
Had
“concerns”
about
the
public
option
in
the
2009
proposed House version of healthcare reform
Voted against the FISA extension (Dec. 2012); called
for an investigation into domestic wiretapping (June
2013)
Voted for the FISA extension (Sept. 2012)
Said
he
would
not
support
CISPA
due
to
its
“insufficient
Voted
for
CISPA,
calling
it
an
“effective
compromise”
privacy
protections”
and
had
“strong
use
limitations
for
any shared
data”
In 100% agreement with the League of Conservation
Voters’
issues
and
received
its
endorsement;
Supported
Gina McCarthy as head of the EPA; Signed a letter
urging Obama to choose a strong nominee willing to
“craft
bold
solutions”
Opposed the League of Conservation Voters and the
Sierra Club, and voted with the Republican Caucus to
delay implementation of new boiler rules
Unequivocally
supported
Honolulu’s
mass
transit
rail
project
Said she personally did not support
Honolulu’s
steel
on
steel mass transit rail project
Voted to allow clear-cutting of the Tongass National
Forest in Alaska
Consistently supported
marriage
equality
calling
it
“a
Voted for two amendments that were meant to derail
constitutional
right
for
all
Americans”
state civil unions legislation in 2009; Defined marriage
as between one man and one woman until applying for
Senate appointment in December 2012.
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7. IV.
CONCLUSION
With decisive advantages in money, endorsements, organization, and manpower as
well as an ideology more in tune with primary voters, Schatz is well-positioned to win the
Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate on August 9, 2014. Schatz is the only candidate in
this race to win statewide office, and the Abercrombie-Schatz gubernatorial ticket
significantly outpolled Hanabusa in 2010, when she was a candidate for Congress. At 40
years old, Schatz has the promise of serving many years in the U.S. Senate and accumulating
all important seniority for the constituents of Hawaii.
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