Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results WITH DEMOGRAPHICS
1. 1
• 1,648 Likely General Election Voters
• Sampling Margin of Error +/-2.4%
• September 26-28, 2012
Who would you vote for in the race for U.S. Senate—Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, or Former
Governor Linda Lingle? [name order randomized]
Senate
Hirono 55%
Lingle 39%
Unsure 6%
Total 100%
Do you have children who are in Hawaii public schools now, or who attended public schools
within the last 10 years?
Kids_in_School
Yes 32%
No 67%
Unsure 1%
Total 100%
In your mind, how good an education do Hawaii's public school students receive—excellent,
good, fair, or poor?
Educ_Quality
Excellent 5%
Good 34%
Fair 44%
Poor 14%
Unsure 3%
Total 100%
2. 2
How much of a negative impact did Furlough Fridays, which closed public schools twice each
month from 2009 to 2011, have on the quality of education in Hawaii?
Furloughs
Major Negative 40%
Minor Negative 32%
Not Negative 15%
Unsure 13%
Total 100%
How much of a negative impact does the unresolved contract dispute—still ongoing after
teachers rejected an offer from the state earlier this year—have on the quality of education in
Hawaii?
Teacher_Contract
Major Negative 29%
Minor Negative 34%
Not Negative 13%
Unsure 24%
Total 100%
How do you currently feel about the country’s economy?
Economy
Positive 57%
Negative 40%
Unsure 3%
Total 100%
3. 3
Demographics:
Gender
Male 44%
Female 56%
Total 100%
Age
18-29 5%
30-39 7%
40-49 10%
50-64 34%
65+ 43%
Total 100%
Race_Ethnicity
Caucasian 40%
Japanese 36%
Filipino 7%
Hawaiian 3%
Chinese 10%
Hispanic/Latino 1%
Other/Mixed 3%
Total 100%
Politics
Liberal/Progressive 27%
Moderate 37%
Conservative 22%
Unsure 14%
Total 100%
Party_ID
Democrat 54%
Republican 17%
Independent 24%
Unsure 4%
Total 100%
4. 4
Education
No degree 2%
High School Degree 28%
College Degree 43%
Graduate Degree 27%
Total 100%
Military_Family
Yes 12%
No 88%
Total 100%
Income
Less than $50,000 37%
$50,000-$100,000 39%
$100,000 or more 24%
Total 100%
CD
1 54%
2 46%
Total 100%
Island
Oahu 76%
Neighbor 24%
Total 100%
8. 8
Senate * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender
Male Female
Senate Hirono 52% 59%
Lingle 42% 35%
Unsure 6% 6%
Total 100% 100%
Senate * Age Crosstabulation
% within Age
Age
18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+
Senate Hirono 49% 51% 54% 56% 57%
Lingle 40% 25% 42% 40% 39%
Unsure 11% 24% 3% 4% 4%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Senate * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation
% within Race_Ethnicity
Race_Ethnicity
Japanes Hispanic/Latin
Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/Mixed
Senate Hirono 51% 67% 46% 54% 43% 58% 52%
Lingle 46% 29% 38% 42% 44% 42% 38%
Unsure 4% 4% 17% 4% 13% 10%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Senate * Politics Crosstabulation
% within Politics
Politics
Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ
e Moderate e Unsure
Senate Hirono 88% 59% 16% 47%
Lingle 7% 37% 81% 36%
Unsure 5% 4% 3% 16%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
9. 9
Senate * Party_ID Crosstabulation
% within Party_ID
Party_ID
Republica Independen
Democrat n t Unsure
Senate Hirono 85% 5% 34% 16%
Lingle 11% 92% 60% 40%
Unsure 5% 2% 6% 44%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Senate * Education Crosstabulation
% within Education
Education
High
No School College Graduate
degree Degree Degree Degree
Senate Hirono 58% 55% 54% 61%
Lingle 33% 40% 40% 34%
Unsure 9% 5% 6% 5%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Senate * Military_Family Crosstabulation
% within Military_Family
Military_Family
Yes No
Senate Hirono 58% 56%
Lingle 36% 38%
Unsure 6% 6%
Total 100% 100%
Senate * Income Crosstabulation
% within Income
Income
Less
than $50,000- $100,000
$50,000 $100,000 or more
Senate Hirono 61% 54% 55%
Lingle 33% 42% 40%
Unsure 7% 5% 5%
Total 100% 100% 100%
10. 10
Kids_in_School * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender
Male Female
Kids_in_Schoo Yes 33% 31%
l No 66% 68%
Unsure 1% 1%
Total 100% 100%
Kids_in_School * Age Crosstabulation
% within Age
Age
18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+
Kids_in_Schoo Yes 48% 26% 43% 41% 21%
l No 52% 68% 57% 58% 77%
Unsure 6% 1% 1%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Kids_in_School * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation
% within Race_Ethnicity
Race_Ethnicity
Japanes Hispanic/Latin
Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/Mixed
Kids_in_Schoo Yes 31% 29% 50% 45% 24% 42% 43%
l No 68% 70% 46% 53% 75% 58% 55%
Unsure 1% 1% 4% 2% 1% 2%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Kids_in_School * Politics Crosstabulation
% within Politics
Politics
Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ
e Moderate e Unsure
Kids_in_Schoo Yes 28% 34% 32% 34%
l No 70% 66% 68% 62%
Unsure 2% 1% 4%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
11. 11
Kids_in_School * Party_ID Crosstabulation
% within Party_ID
Party_ID
Republica Independen
Democrat n t Unsure
Kids_in_Schoo Yes 30% 30% 36% 38%
l No 69% 70% 63% 50%
Unsure 1% 1% 12%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Kids_in_School * Education Crosstabulation
% within Education
Education
High
No School College Graduate
degree Degree Degree Degree
Kids_in_Schoo Yes 31% 33% 32% 31%
l No 64% 65% 67% 68%
Unsure 6% 1% 1% 1%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Kids_in_School * Military_Family Crosstabulation
% within Military_Family
Military_Family
Yes No
Kids_in_Schoo Yes 46% 30%
l No 53% 69%
Unsure 1% 1%
Total 100% 100%
Kids_in_School * Income Crosstabulation
% within Income
Income
Less
than $50,000- $100,000
$50,000 $100,000 or more
Kids_in_Schoo Yes 30% 38% 28%
l No 70% 61% 71%
Unsure 1% 1% 1%
Total 100% 100% 100%
12. 12
Educ_Quality * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender
Male Female
Educ_Quality Excellent 5% 5%
Good 31% 36%
Fair 44% 43%
Poor 18% 12%
Unsure 2% 4%
Total 100% 100%
Educ_Quality * Age Crosstabulation
% within Age
Age
18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+
Educ_Quality Excellent 7% 5% 4% 6%
Good 21% 28% 28% 30% 42%
Fair 49% 50% 49% 47% 37%
Poor 29% 11% 17% 17% 10%
Unsure 3% 1% 2% 4%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Educ_Quality * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation
% within Race_Ethnicity
Race_Ethnicity
Japanes Hispanic/Latin
Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/Mixed
Educ_Quality Excellent 3% 6% 13% 4% 4% 6%
Good 26% 42% 34% 33% 43% 38% 25%
Fair 47% 40% 39% 38% 44% 54% 45%
Poor 22% 8% 9% 22% 5% 8% 20%
Unsure 1% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Educ_Quality * Politics Crosstabulation
% within Politics
Politics
Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ
e Moderate e Unsure
Educ_Quality Excellent 6% 3% 6% 6%
Good 33% 36% 27% 41%
Fair 45% 46% 43% 37%
Poor 14% 14% 21% 6%
Unsure 1% 1% 3% 10%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
13. 13
Educ_Quality * Party_ID Crosstabulation
% within Party_ID
Party_ID
Republica Independen
Democrat n t Unsure
Educ_Quality Excellent 5% 4% 4% 9%
Good 40% 26% 27% 24%
Fair 43% 45% 43% 50%
Poor 9% 21% 23% 3%
Unsure 2% 4% 3% 14%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Educ_Quality * Education Crosstabulation
% within Education
Education
High
No School College Graduate
degree Degree Degree Degree
Educ_Quality Excellent 6% 7% 5% 3%
Good 51% 34% 32% 34%
Fair 23% 44% 45% 44%
Poor 11% 10% 16% 17%
Unsure 9% 4% 2% 1%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Educ_Quality * Military_Family Crosstabulation
% within Military_Family
Military_Family
Yes No
Educ_Quality Excellent 12% 4%
Good 33% 34%
Fair 28% 46%
Poor 25% 13%
Unsure 2% 3%
Educ_Quality * Income Crosstabulation
% within Income
Income
Less
than $50,000- $100,000
$50,000 $100,000 or more
Educ_Quality Excellent 6% 5% 3%
Good 34% 33% 31%
Fair 44% 46% 45%
Poor 13% 15% 18%
Unsure 3% 1% 4%
Total 100% 100% 100%
14. 14
Furloughs * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender
Male Female
Furloughs Major Negative 37% 42%
Minor Negative 34% 31%
Not Negative 20% 12%
Unsure 9% 16%
Total 100% 100%
Furloughs * Age Crosstabulation
% within Age
Age
18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+
Furloughs Major Negative 32% 56% 50% 40% 36%
Minor Negative 28% 19% 29% 35% 33%
Not Negative 19% 18% 17% 15% 15%
Unsure 21% 8% 4% 10% 17%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Furloughs * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation
% within Race_Ethnicity
Race_Ethnicity
Japanes Hispanic/Latin
Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/Mixed
Furloughs Major 40% 42% 40% 46% 31% 54% 39%
Negative
Minor 34% 31% 23% 28% 36% 23% 29%
Negative
Not 16% 13% 17% 15% 19% 8% 18%
Negative
Unsure 10% 15% 19% 11% 14% 15% 14%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Furloughs * Politics Crosstabulation
% within Politics
Politics
Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ
e Moderate e Unsure
Furloughs Major 55% 41% 23% 35%
Negative
Minor 29% 33% 39% 25%
Negative
Not 6% 16% 29% 11%
Negative
Unsure 10% 11% 9% 30%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
15. 15
Furloughs * Party_ID Crosstabulation
% within Party_ID
Party_ID
Republica Independen
Democrat n t Unsure
Furloughs Major 51% 22% 29% 31%
Negative
Minor 29% 32% 38% 22%
Negative
Not Negative 8% 31% 21% 17%
Unsure 12% 15% 12% 29%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Furloughs * Education Crosstabulation
% within Education
Education
High
No School College Graduate
degree Degree Degree Degree
Furloughs Major Negative 37% 37% 41% 41%
Minor Negative 17% 32% 32% 33%
Not Negative 26% 16% 15% 14%
Unsure 20% 15% 12% 12%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Furloughs * Military_Family Crosstabulation
% within Military_Family
Military_Family
Yes No
Furloughs Major Negative 49% 39%
Minor Negative 25% 33%
Not Negative 20% 15%
Unsure 6% 14%
Total 100% 100%
Furloughs * Income Crosstabulation
% within Income
Income
Less
than $50,000- $100,000
$50,000 $100,000 or more
Furloughs Major Negative 40% 40% 42%
Minor Negative 32% 30% 36%
Not Negative 14% 18% 14%
Unsure 15% 12% 8%
Total 100% 100% 100%
16. 16
Teacher_Contract * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
Gender
Male Female
Teacher_Contrac Major Negative 29% 29%
t Minor Negative 37% 31%
Not Negative 15% 12%
Unsure 20% 28%
Total 100% 100%
Teacher_Contract * Age Crosstabulation
% within Age
Age
18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+
Teacher_Contrac Major Negative 34% 36% 30% 31% 25%
t Minor Negative 18% 30% 38% 35% 35%
Not Negative 7% 11% 15% 12% 14%
Unsure 41% 23% 17% 22% 26%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Teacher_Contract * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation
% within Race_Ethnicity
Race_Ethnicity
Japanes Hispanic/Latin
Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/Mixed
Teacher_Contrac Major 26% 31% 33% 38% 26% 25% 32%
t Negative
Minor 37% 30% 27% 31% 43% 33% 26%
Negative
Not 16% 11% 7% 13% 12% 8% 12%
Negative
Unsure 21% 28% 33% 18% 18% 33% 30%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Teacher_Contract * Politics Crosstabulation
% within Politics
Politics
Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ
e Moderate e Unsure
Teacher_Contrac Major 32% 31% 30% 19%
t Negative
Minor 40% 35% 29% 25%
Negative
Not 10% 14% 18% 8%
Negative
Unsure 19% 20% 24% 49%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
17. 17
Teacher_Contract * Party_ID Crosstabulation
% within Party_ID
Party_ID
Republica Independen
Democrat n t Unsure
Teacher_Contrac Major 32% 26% 28% 12%
t Negative
Minor 36% 31% 33% 17%
Negative
Not 11% 16% 16% 7%
Negative
Unsure 22% 26% 23% 64%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Teacher_Contract * Education Crosstabulation
% within Education
Education
High
No School College Graduate
degree Degree Degree Degree
Teacher_Contrac Major Negative 14% 30% 33% 24%
t Minor Negative 25% 26% 33% 43%
Not Negative 22% 9% 13% 16%
Unsure 39% 36% 21% 17%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Teacher_Contract * Military_Family Crosstabulation
% within Military_Family
Military_Family
Yes No
Teacher_Contrac Major Negative 37% 28%
t Minor Negative 28% 34%
Not Negative 19% 12%
Unsure 16% 26%
Total 100% 100%
Teacher_Contract * Income Crosstabulation
% within Income
Income
Less
than $50,000- $100,000
$50,000 $100,000 or more
Teacher_Contrac Major 30% 26% 31%
t Negative
Minor 31% 36% 37%
Negative
Not 9% 14% 17%
Negative
Unsure 29% 23% 15%
Total 100% 100% 100%
18. 18
Educ_Quality * Kids_in_School Crosstabulation
% within Kids_in_School
Kids_in_School
Yes No Unsure
Educ_Quality Excellent 6% 4% 26%
Good 35% 34% 21%
Fair 43% 44% 5%
Poor 15% 14% 5%
Unsure 1% 3% 42%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Kids_in_School * Educ_Quality Crosstabulation
% within Educ_Quality
Educ_Quality
Excellent Good Fair Poor Unsure
Kids_in_Schoo Yes 39% 33% 32% 34% 7%
l No 54% 67% 68% 65% 75%
Unsure 6% 1% 0% 0% 18%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Furloughs * Kids_in_School Crosstabulation
% within Kids_in_School
Kids_in_School
Yes No Unsure
Furloughs Major Negative 39% 40% 21%
Minor Negative 32% 32% 21%
Not Negative 20% 13% 0%
Unsure 9% 14% 58%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Kids_in_School * Furloughs Crosstabulation
% within Furloughs
Furloughs
Major Minor Not
Negative Negative Negative Unsure
Kids_in_Schoo Yes 32% 32% 42% 21%
l No 68% 67% 58% 74%
Unsure 1% 1% 0% 5%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
19. 19
Teacher_Contract * Kids_in_School Crosstabulation
% within Kids_in_School
Kids_in_School
Yes No Unsure
Teacher_Contrac Major Negative 32% 28% 10%
t Minor Negative 31% 35% 30%
Not Negative 15% 12%
Unsure 22% 25% 60%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Kids_in_School * Teacher_Contract Crosstabulation
% within Teacher_Contract
Teacher_Contract
Major Minor Not
Negative Negative Negative Unsure
Kids_in_Schoo Yes 35% 29% 38% 29%
l No 65% 70% 62% 68%
Unsure 0% 1% 3%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Educ_Quality * Furloughs Crosstabulation
% within Furloughs
Furloughs
Major Minor Not
Negative Negative Negative Unsure
Educ_Quality Excellent 5% 4% 7% 4%
Good 35% 36% 24% 41%
Fair 45% 46% 42% 35%
Poor 13% 13% 26% 9%
Unsure 2% 2% 2% 10%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Furloughs * Educ_Quality Crosstabulation
% within Educ_Quality
Educ_Quality
Excellent Good Fair Poor Unsure
Furloughs Major Negative 42% 41% 42% 35% 23%
Minor Negative 25% 33% 34% 29% 20%
Not Negative 22% 10% 14% 28% 9%
Unsure 11% 15% 10% 8% 48%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
20. 20
Educ_Quality * Teacher_Contract Crosstabulation
% within Teacher_Contract
Teacher_Contract
Major Minor Not
Negative Negative Negative Unsure
Educ_Quality Excellent 2% 5% 9% 6%
Good 29% 43% 31% 30%
Fair 49% 40% 37% 45%
Poor 19% 9% 23% 12%
Unsure 1% 2% 1% 7%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
% within Educ_Quality
Educ_Quality
Excellent Good Fair Poor Unsure
Teacher_Contrac Major Negative 14% 24% 33% 38% 11%
t Minor Negative 35% 43% 31% 22% 22%
Not Negative 23% 11% 11% 20% 4%
Unsure 28% 22% 25% 20% 62%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Furloughs * Teacher_Contract Crosstabulation
% within Teacher_Contract
Teacher_Contract
Major Minor Not
Negative Negative Negative Unsure
Furloughs Major Negative 63% 40% 18% 24%
Minor Negative 25% 44% 30% 24%
Not Negative 8% 11% 47% 13%
Unsure 4% 5% 6% 39%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Teacher_Contract * Furloughs Crosstabulation
% within Furloughs
Furloughs
Major Minor Not
Negative Negative Negative Unsure
Teacher_Contrac Major Negative 46% 23% 16% 9%
t Minor Negative 34% 47% 24% 12%
Not Negative 6% 12% 39% 6%
Unsure 15% 19% 21% 73%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Senate * CD Crosstabulation
21. 21
% within CD
CD
1 2 Total
Senate Hirono 55% 55% 55%
Lingle 39% 38% 39%
Unsure 6% 7% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Senate * Island Crosstabulation
% within Island
Island
Oahu Neighbor Total
Senate Hirono 53% 64% 55%
Lingle 41% 31% 39%
Unsure 6% 6% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100%