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   •   751 Likely General Election Voters in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District
   •   Sampling Margin of Error +/-3.6%
   •   September 26-28, 2012

Who would you vote for in the race for U.S. House of Representatives—Tea Party activist Kawika
Crowley, or former Honolulu City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard? [name order randomized]
                     CD2

          Gabbard                      70%
          Crowley                      18%
          Unsure                       12%
          Total                       100%



How do you currently feel about the country’s economy?
                  Economy

          Positive                     56%
          Negative                     42%
          Unsure                        3%
          Total                       100%



Many economists believe that making the U.S. economy healthy again will require some mix of
government spending cuts and tax increases. In the next two questions, I will first ask you how you
feel about government spending cuts, and then ask how you feel about tax increases….

In terms of cutting government spending, what strategy do you think the country needs to help fix
the economy? Do we need cuts across the board, including to programs ranging from social security
to the military? Do we need targeted cuts to programs like the military and corporate subsidies, but
not to programs like social security or healthcare? Or do we not need any major cuts to government
spending?
               Spending_Cuts

          "Tough" cuts                 26%
          "Easy" cuts                  54%
          No cuts                       6%
          Unsure                       13%
          Total                       100%
2



In terms of raising taxes, what strategy do you think the country needs to help fix the economy? Do
we need to raise everyone’s taxes to some degree? Do we need to raise taxes only on individuals
with income above $250,000? Or do we not need any tax increases?

               Tax_Increases

          "Tough" taxes                16%
          "Easy" taxes                 54%
          No taxes                     24%
          Unsure                        5%
          Total                       100%



Which of the following do you think is the best way to solve our national deficit and budget
problems? Is it to focus most on cutting government spending? To focus most on raising revenues
by increasing taxes and closing tax loopholes? Or is it to focus about equally on spending cuts and
tax increases?
                  Solution

          Cut spending                 33%
          Increase taxes                8%
          Both                         47%
          Unsure                       11%
          Total                       100%
3



In your mind, how good an education do Hawaii's public school students receive—excellent, good,
fair, or poor?
             Educ_Quality

          Excellent               6%
          Good                   31%
          Fair                   43%
          Poor                   18%
          Unsure                  2%
          Total                 100%




Oahu, 2nd Congressional District Only:
How do you feel about the Honolulu Rail project – do you generally support or oppose it?
                      Rail

          Support                       35%
          Oppose                        57%
          Unsure                         9%
          Total                        100%
4


Demographics:
                Gender

       Male                   42%
       Female                 58%
       Total                 100%



                  Age

       18-29                   8%
       30-39                   4%
       40-49                  12%
       50-64                  38%
       65+                    38%
       Total                 100%


            Race_Ethnicity

       Caucasian              49%
       Japanese               29%
       Filipino                6%
       Hawaiian                6%
       Chinese                 5%
       Hispanic/Latino         1%
       Other/Mixed             4%
       Total                 100%



                Politics

       Liberal/Progressive    28%
       Moderate               35%
       Conservative           23%
       Unsure                 14%
       Total                 100%
5



           Party_ID

Democrat                   55%
Republican                 18%
Independent                22%
Unsure                      5%
Total                     100%



          Education

No degree                   3%
High School Degree         31%
College Degree             43%
Graduate Degree            24%
Total                     100%



        Military_Family

Yes                        14%
No                         86%
Total                     100%


           Income

Less than $50,000          46%
$50,000-$100,000           35%
$100,000 or more           19%
Total                     100%
6



Crosstabs:

                      CD2 * Gender Crosstabulation
% within Gender
                                                   Gender
                                               Male    Female
CD2         Gabbard                              68%       72%
            Crowley                              24%       14%
            Unsure                                8%       14%
Total                                           100%      100%



                                           CD2 * Age Crosstabulation
% within Age
                                                                         Age
                                              18-29         30-39       40-49      50-64      65+
CD2         Gabbard                              64%           63%         66%        77%       67%
            Crowley                              22%           33%         23%        15%       17%
            Unsure                               14%            3%         11%         8%       16%
Total                                          100%          100%         100%      100%       100%



                                           CD2 * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation
% within Race_Ethnicity
                                                             Race_Ethnicity
                                    Japanes                                         Hispanic/Latin
                       Caucasian       e         Filipino    Hawaiian    Chinese          o          Other/Mixed
CD2      Gabbard            69%         69%          84%        73%          78%              60%           71%
         Crowley            23%         13%            7%       22%          13%              10%           17%
         Unsure              8%         18%            9%         5%          9%              30%           13%
Total                      100%        100%         100%       100%        100%              100%          100%



                            CD2 * Politics Crosstabulation
% within Politics
                                              Politics
                      Liberal/Progressiv                 Conservativ
                               e           Moderate          e          Unsure
CD2     Gabbard                     82%        75%              45%       78%
        Crowley                      7%        16%              41%        6%
        Unsure                      11%         8%              14%       16%
Total                              100%       100%             100%      100%
7



                           CD2 * Party_ID Crosstabulation
% within Party_ID
                                             Party_ID
                                      Republica      Independen
                           Democrat      n                t         Unsure
CD2       Gabbard              83%         39%               63%       77%
          Crowley               8%         44%               23%        4%
          Unsure                8%         17%               15%       19%
Total                         100%        100%              100%      100%



                           CD2 * Education Crosstabulation
% within Education
                                               Education
                                            High
                                  No       School       College    Graduate
                                degree     Degree       Degree      Degree
CD2        Gabbard                 60%        72%           68%        72%
           Crowley                 27%        13%           23%        15%
           Unsure                  13%        14%            9%        13%
Total                             100%       100%         100%        100%



            CD2 * Military_Family Crosstabulation
% within Military_Family
                                  Military_Family
                                  Yes         No
CD2         Gabbard                 60%         72%
            Crowley                 34%         16%
            Unsure                   6%         12%
Total                              100%       100%



                      CD2 * Income Crosstabulation
% within Income
                                           Income
                                 Less     $50,000-
                                 than     $100,00      $100,000
                                $50,000       0         or more
CD2        Gabbard                  69%        71%          73%
           Crowley                  17%        20%          20%
           Unsure                   14%         8%           7%
Total                             100%        100%         100%
8



                     CD2 * Economy Crosstabulation
% within Economy
                                           Economy
                                Positive   Negative   Unsure
CD2       Gabbard                  85%         50%       38%
          Crowley                     7%       35%       10%
          Unsure                      8%       15%       52%
Total                             100%        100%      100%



                     Economy * CD2 Crosstabulation
% within CD2
                                            CD2
                                Gabbard    Crowley    Unsure
Economy   Positive                 69%        22%        36%
          Negative                 30%        77%        51%
          Unsure                    2%          1%       13%
Total                             100%       100%       100%



                         CD2 * Spending_Cuts Crosstabulation
% within Spending_Cuts
                                             Spending_Cuts
                                "Tough"     "Easy"
                                  cuts       cuts     No cuts   Unsure
CD2       Gabbard                   46%        82%       85%       58%
          Crowley                   40%         9%        4%       22%
          Unsure                    14%         9%       11%       19%
Total                              100%       100%      100%      100%



                   Spending_Cuts * CD2 Crosstabulation
% within CD2
                                             CD2
                                 Gabbard    Crowley    Unsure
Spending_Cut    "Tough" cuts        17%        57%        31%
s               "Easy" cuts         65%        26%        42%
                No cuts              8%         2%         6%
                Unsure              10%        15%        20%
Total                              100%       100%       100%
9



                           CD2 * Tax_Increases Crosstabulation
% within Tax_Increases
                                                 Tax_Increases
                                    "Tough"    "Easy"
                                     taxes      taxes     No taxes   Unsure
CD2        Gabbard                      65%        84%        43%       71%
           Crowley                      18%         8%        44%        5%
           Unsure                       17%         8%        13%       24%
Total                                  100%       100%       100%      100%



                     Tax_Increases * CD2 Crosstabulation
% within CD2
                                                 CD2
                                     Gabbard    Crowley    Unsure
Tax_Increases       "Tough" taxes       14%        15%        23%
                    "Easy" taxes        65%        24%        40%
                    No taxes            15%        60%        27%
                    Unsure               5%         2%        11%
Total                                  100%       100%       100%



                              CD2 * Solution Crosstabulation
% within Solution
                                                    Solution
                                      Cut      Increase
                                    spending     taxes     Both      Unsure
CD2        Gabbard                      51%         88%      81%        72%
           Crowley                      37%          9%       8%        11%
           Unsure                       12%          4%      11%        17%
Total                                  100%        100%     100%       100%



                        Solution * CD2 Crosstabulation
% within CD2
                                                CD2
                                    Gabbard    Crowley    Unsure
Solution   Cut spending                24%        69%        36%
           Increase taxes              10%          4%        2%
           Both                        55%        20%        46%
           Unsure                      11%          6%       16%
Total                                 100%       100%       100%
10



                              CD2 * Educ_Quality Crosstabulation
% within Educ_Quality
                                                     Educ_Quality
                               Excellent    Good         Fair       Poor    Unsure
CD2         Gabbard                91%        75%          71%        57%      62%
            Crowley                  9%       13%          18%        29%      23%
            Unsure                   0%       13%          11%        14%      15%
Total                             100%       100%         100%       100%     100%



                   Educ_Quality * CD2 Crosstabulation
% within CD2
                                            CD2
                                Gabbard    Crowley      Unsure
Educ_Quality    Excellent           6%         2%           0%
                Good               33%        21%          34%
                Fair               44%        44%          41%
                Poor               15%        30%          22%
                Unsure              2%         2%           2%
Total                             100%       100%         100%



                        CD2 * Rail Crosstabulation
% within Rail
                                            Rail
                               Support     Oppose      Unsure
CD2         Gabbard               81%         69%         50%
            Crowley               15%         26%         17%
            Unsure                 3%          5%         33%
Total                            100%        100%        100%



                        Rail * CD2 Crosstabulation
% within CD2
                                            CD2
                               Gabbard     Crowley     Unsure
Rail        Support               40%         25%         18%
            Oppose                55%         69%         45%
            Unsure                 5%           6%        36%
Total                            100%        100%        100%

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Civil Beat Poll September 2012 2nd Congressional District

  • 1. 1 • 751 Likely General Election Voters in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District • Sampling Margin of Error +/-3.6% • September 26-28, 2012 Who would you vote for in the race for U.S. House of Representatives—Tea Party activist Kawika Crowley, or former Honolulu City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard? [name order randomized] CD2 Gabbard 70% Crowley 18% Unsure 12% Total 100% How do you currently feel about the country’s economy? Economy Positive 56% Negative 42% Unsure 3% Total 100% Many economists believe that making the U.S. economy healthy again will require some mix of government spending cuts and tax increases. In the next two questions, I will first ask you how you feel about government spending cuts, and then ask how you feel about tax increases…. In terms of cutting government spending, what strategy do you think the country needs to help fix the economy? Do we need cuts across the board, including to programs ranging from social security to the military? Do we need targeted cuts to programs like the military and corporate subsidies, but not to programs like social security or healthcare? Or do we not need any major cuts to government spending? Spending_Cuts "Tough" cuts 26% "Easy" cuts 54% No cuts 6% Unsure 13% Total 100%
  • 2. 2 In terms of raising taxes, what strategy do you think the country needs to help fix the economy? Do we need to raise everyone’s taxes to some degree? Do we need to raise taxes only on individuals with income above $250,000? Or do we not need any tax increases? Tax_Increases "Tough" taxes 16% "Easy" taxes 54% No taxes 24% Unsure 5% Total 100% Which of the following do you think is the best way to solve our national deficit and budget problems? Is it to focus most on cutting government spending? To focus most on raising revenues by increasing taxes and closing tax loopholes? Or is it to focus about equally on spending cuts and tax increases? Solution Cut spending 33% Increase taxes 8% Both 47% Unsure 11% Total 100%
  • 3. 3 In your mind, how good an education do Hawaii's public school students receive—excellent, good, fair, or poor? Educ_Quality Excellent 6% Good 31% Fair 43% Poor 18% Unsure 2% Total 100% Oahu, 2nd Congressional District Only: How do you feel about the Honolulu Rail project – do you generally support or oppose it? Rail Support 35% Oppose 57% Unsure 9% Total 100%
  • 4. 4 Demographics: Gender Male 42% Female 58% Total 100% Age 18-29 8% 30-39 4% 40-49 12% 50-64 38% 65+ 38% Total 100% Race_Ethnicity Caucasian 49% Japanese 29% Filipino 6% Hawaiian 6% Chinese 5% Hispanic/Latino 1% Other/Mixed 4% Total 100% Politics Liberal/Progressive 28% Moderate 35% Conservative 23% Unsure 14% Total 100%
  • 5. 5 Party_ID Democrat 55% Republican 18% Independent 22% Unsure 5% Total 100% Education No degree 3% High School Degree 31% College Degree 43% Graduate Degree 24% Total 100% Military_Family Yes 14% No 86% Total 100% Income Less than $50,000 46% $50,000-$100,000 35% $100,000 or more 19% Total 100%
  • 6. 6 Crosstabs: CD2 * Gender Crosstabulation % within Gender Gender Male Female CD2 Gabbard 68% 72% Crowley 24% 14% Unsure 8% 14% Total 100% 100% CD2 * Age Crosstabulation % within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+ CD2 Gabbard 64% 63% 66% 77% 67% Crowley 22% 33% 23% 15% 17% Unsure 14% 3% 11% 8% 16% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% CD2 * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation % within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Japanes Hispanic/Latin Caucasian e Filipino Hawaiian Chinese o Other/Mixed CD2 Gabbard 69% 69% 84% 73% 78% 60% 71% Crowley 23% 13% 7% 22% 13% 10% 17% Unsure 8% 18% 9% 5% 9% 30% 13% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% CD2 * Politics Crosstabulation % within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressiv Conservativ e Moderate e Unsure CD2 Gabbard 82% 75% 45% 78% Crowley 7% 16% 41% 6% Unsure 11% 8% 14% 16% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 7. 7 CD2 * Party_ID Crosstabulation % within Party_ID Party_ID Republica Independen Democrat n t Unsure CD2 Gabbard 83% 39% 63% 77% Crowley 8% 44% 23% 4% Unsure 8% 17% 15% 19% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% CD2 * Education Crosstabulation % within Education Education High No School College Graduate degree Degree Degree Degree CD2 Gabbard 60% 72% 68% 72% Crowley 27% 13% 23% 15% Unsure 13% 14% 9% 13% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% CD2 * Military_Family Crosstabulation % within Military_Family Military_Family Yes No CD2 Gabbard 60% 72% Crowley 34% 16% Unsure 6% 12% Total 100% 100% CD2 * Income Crosstabulation % within Income Income Less $50,000- than $100,00 $100,000 $50,000 0 or more CD2 Gabbard 69% 71% 73% Crowley 17% 20% 20% Unsure 14% 8% 7% Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 8. 8 CD2 * Economy Crosstabulation % within Economy Economy Positive Negative Unsure CD2 Gabbard 85% 50% 38% Crowley 7% 35% 10% Unsure 8% 15% 52% Total 100% 100% 100% Economy * CD2 Crosstabulation % within CD2 CD2 Gabbard Crowley Unsure Economy Positive 69% 22% 36% Negative 30% 77% 51% Unsure 2% 1% 13% Total 100% 100% 100% CD2 * Spending_Cuts Crosstabulation % within Spending_Cuts Spending_Cuts "Tough" "Easy" cuts cuts No cuts Unsure CD2 Gabbard 46% 82% 85% 58% Crowley 40% 9% 4% 22% Unsure 14% 9% 11% 19% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Spending_Cuts * CD2 Crosstabulation % within CD2 CD2 Gabbard Crowley Unsure Spending_Cut "Tough" cuts 17% 57% 31% s "Easy" cuts 65% 26% 42% No cuts 8% 2% 6% Unsure 10% 15% 20% Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 9. 9 CD2 * Tax_Increases Crosstabulation % within Tax_Increases Tax_Increases "Tough" "Easy" taxes taxes No taxes Unsure CD2 Gabbard 65% 84% 43% 71% Crowley 18% 8% 44% 5% Unsure 17% 8% 13% 24% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Tax_Increases * CD2 Crosstabulation % within CD2 CD2 Gabbard Crowley Unsure Tax_Increases "Tough" taxes 14% 15% 23% "Easy" taxes 65% 24% 40% No taxes 15% 60% 27% Unsure 5% 2% 11% Total 100% 100% 100% CD2 * Solution Crosstabulation % within Solution Solution Cut Increase spending taxes Both Unsure CD2 Gabbard 51% 88% 81% 72% Crowley 37% 9% 8% 11% Unsure 12% 4% 11% 17% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Solution * CD2 Crosstabulation % within CD2 CD2 Gabbard Crowley Unsure Solution Cut spending 24% 69% 36% Increase taxes 10% 4% 2% Both 55% 20% 46% Unsure 11% 6% 16% Total 100% 100% 100%
  • 10. 10 CD2 * Educ_Quality Crosstabulation % within Educ_Quality Educ_Quality Excellent Good Fair Poor Unsure CD2 Gabbard 91% 75% 71% 57% 62% Crowley 9% 13% 18% 29% 23% Unsure 0% 13% 11% 14% 15% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Educ_Quality * CD2 Crosstabulation % within CD2 CD2 Gabbard Crowley Unsure Educ_Quality Excellent 6% 2% 0% Good 33% 21% 34% Fair 44% 44% 41% Poor 15% 30% 22% Unsure 2% 2% 2% Total 100% 100% 100% CD2 * Rail Crosstabulation % within Rail Rail Support Oppose Unsure CD2 Gabbard 81% 69% 50% Crowley 15% 26% 17% Unsure 3% 5% 33% Total 100% 100% 100% Rail * CD2 Crosstabulation % within CD2 CD2 Gabbard Crowley Unsure Rail Support 40% 25% 18% Oppose 55% 69% 45% Unsure 5% 6% 36% Total 100% 100% 100%