The document summarizes research on threats to water security in the Amazon basin from climate change and land use change. It finds that land use change may negatively impact water quality more than quantity by 2050. Climate change is projected to significantly reduce rainfall and increase water stress in the basin by 2050 and 2080. This could undermine food production, energy generation and health. The document recommends establishing protected zones to safeguard water security, a regional platform to monitor securities, and incorporating securities into national planning.

1. Amazonia:
The Security Agenda
"Climate Change and Security at the Crossroads –
Pathways to Conflict or Cooperation”
Kristiansand, Norway
June 21th, 2013

2. Contents
I. The value of water in the Amazon
II. Threats to water security
III. Defining securities
IV. Methods
V. Results
VI. Discussion: interactions with food, health
and energy security
VII. Policy recommendations

3. I. The value of Amazonia’s water

4. The Amazon basin
Largest source of
freshwater on
Earth
~ 6,300 km3 of
water discharged
annually into the
Atlantic ocean
(15-20% of global
freshwater that
flows into the
oceans)
~ 6.4 million sq
km (44% of South
America's surface
area)

5. The Amazon: contributions to
national productivity and values of exports
39% of hydroelectric energy
41% of cattle
24% of natural gas
US$ 700 million from
soybean (2011)
US$ 3900 million from
natural gas (2011)
37 % of cattle
17 % of natural gas
US$ 7000 million
for soybean (2012)
US$ 1600 million
for beef (2012)
23 % of oil
24 % of fish
US$ 94 million from
oil - Alto Putumayo
(2000)
35 % of hydroelectric energy
99 % of oil
US$ 196 million for coffee (Amazonas and San Martin) (2011)
US$ 166 million for timber (2011)
73% of oil and liquid natural
gas
22% of hydroelectric energy
14 % of extracted gold
(Madre de Dios)
US$ 8900 million from
oil (2010)

6. Around 10 million
people in the
Amazon depend
on water for
household
consumption,
subsistence food
production,
health, electricity,
river
transportation,
etc.
Amazonia's water and livelihoods

7. II. Threats to Amazonia’s waters

8. Human pressures/ increased
demand driving LUC
• Deforestation (forest loss can accelerate CC)
• Expansion of the agricultural frontier
• Extractive activities (e.g. mining, oil and gas
explorations)
Climate extremes
Droughts in 2005, 2010
Affecting ~1.9 million and 3 million km² respectively
US $ 150 million of economic losses in Acre (Brazil)
(2005)
62.000 people affected in the Amazonas (Brazil) (2010)

9. III. Defining securities

10. Climate change and its possible
security implications
Climate security: “Protection
from the threat of disease,
hunger, unemployment, crime,
social conflict, political repression
and environmental hazards.”
Climate change: “threat
multiplier”, given its potential to
aggravate the risks posed by
“poverty, weak institutional
capacity, etc. (UNGA 2009).”
The growing security threats of
climate change are now part of
the international multilateral
agenda. A United Nations
Secretary General’ report,
addressed Climate change and
its possible security
implications, raising attention to
the implications that climate
change may have on food
security, human health, increased
human exposure to extreme
events, competition over natural
resources, migration and
displacement and international
conflict.

11. Water, food, energy and health
security
The capacity of a population to secure sustained access to adequate
and suitable water; depends on physical water availability, socio-
economic factors determining access to water, and the impact of
water-related hazards such as droughts and floods.
All people, at all times, having physical, social and economic access
to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and
food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO)
Access to a reliable and affordable supply of energy, and is
determined by physical, technical and economic factors. Energy
security is central to development and increasing quality of life.
Protection against threats of food insecurity, emerging diseases and
pandemics, including transborder spread.

12. IV. Methods (1)
1. Literature review – the state of securities in
the Amazon (including LUC and CC)
2. Assessing water balance, water stress index
and quality (Human footprint index) –
WaterWorld (Mulligan et al. 2010)
3. Assessing current pressures and future
threats to water security - Co$ting Nature

13. Methods (2)
4. Assessing land use change impacts on water
security
LUC scenario: recent rates up until 2050, where
protected areas are ineffectively managed and cannot
halt deforestation rates in these zones.
ACCEL scenario: recent rates of observed
deforestation were quadrupled but with no deforestation
in protected areas permitted (ie the PAs are effectively
managed).

14. Methods (3)
5. Assessing impacts of climate change on water
security (WaterWorld and the IPCC A2
scenario)
1st scenario: ensemble mean scenario for the 2050s of all
20 available Global circulation Models (GCMs)
2nd scenario: ensemble mean minus 1 ensemble deviation
(2050s)
3rd scenario: for 2080s to understand longer term water
security and the consistency of projected trends into the
future.

15. Methods (4)
6. Identifying water security hotspots
7. Discussion of implications of LUC and CC
impacts on food production, energy
generation and health in the region
8. Recommendations for regional cooperation

16. V. Results and discussions
V. Results and Discussion

17. Amazonia’s Water Basin
The Amazon boundary (ATCO sensu latissimo), watershed (derived from HydroSHEDS) and
countries. The map also shows tree cover 2000 based on MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields
(Hansen et al., 2006)

18. LUC impacts more on water quality
than on water quantity
Change in HF index in LUC (left) and ACCEL (right) scenarios for 2050s

19. Changes in HF index and concessions for
extractive activities
Pixel-scale (left)
and sub-basin
scale (right)
increase in HF
pollution index
resulting from
operationalisation
of 1% of oil
and gas
concessions
Converting only 1% of the oil and gas concession area in Ecuador and
northern Peru to oil production, indicates that this would increase the HF
pollution index by between 0.5 and 2% for all catchments on a
sub-basin level

20. Changes in HF index and concessions for
extractive activities
Pixel-scale (left)
and sub-basin
scale (right)
increase in HF
pollution index
resulting from
operationalisation
of 10% of
mining
concessions
converting 10% of the mining concession area in Ecuador and northern Peru
(only some of which is within the Amazon watershed) to mining, indicates that this
would increase the HF pollution index by between 5 and
10% for many of the upland catchments on a sub-basin level

21. Climate change: more significant changes in rainfall than
in temperature at the basin level by 2050s and 2080s.
Change in rainfall with AR4 A2 mean of all models 2050s (left), AR4 A2 mean of all (20)
models minus one sd 2050s (middle) and mean of all (20) models 2080s scenarios

22. Climate Change and changes in water
stress (2050s and 2080s)
Change in water stress with the three scenarios, % of industrial and domestic (blue water)
demand not supplied in months at which supply<demand across the year (not including
future population growth or agriulture change)
2050s 2050s 2080s
Changing water stress index => changes in hydropower potential, multiplier effect on fires and droughts,
affect water quality

23. Climate Change and changes in
water quality
Change in human footprint on water with AR4 A2 mean of all (20) models 2050s (left), with
AR4 A2 mean of all minus one standard deviation models 2050s (middle) and witth AR4 A2
mean of all (20) models 2080s (right)

24. Water security hotspots
Sensitivity of
water
balance to
rainfall
change
(mm/mm), at
sub-basin
scale

25. Water security hotspots
Sensitivity of
water stress
index to
change in
tree cover
(%/%)
associated
with
conversion
to pasture

26. Water security
underpinning other securities
• Water quantity and quality Agriculture and fisheries
Yields of soy will diminish 28% by 2050
• Seasonality of water supply -> food production
• Poor water quality and availability Risks in
hydroelectric plants
• Poor water quality oil refining and mining

27. Water security
underpinning other securities
• Water quantity riverine transport (liquid fuels
transportation, local access, transport of agricultural
products; access to health services)
• Climate regulation impacts on the range and transmission
of climate sensitive diseases. Poor water quality leading to
health insecurity, water regulation impacting on waterborne
diseases and water flow affecting spread of infectious
diseases
• Extreme events impact on health security through infectious
diseases, outbreaks, damage to food production, fires, etc.

28. Policy Recommendations

29. 1. Zones for sustainable
interventions to safeguard water
security (ZES)
The ZES would be established in areas neighboring the Amazon
Region to limit the expanding agricultural frontier, as well as in
zones critical for sustaining the Region’s water security.
Likewise, the most vulnerable areas shall be identified and
prioritized. Such areas are those whose climates and land use
are undergoing changes that generate considerable risk to
natural resources, human welfare, and economic activities in the
short, medium, and long term.

30. ZES: Key activities
ZES
Guaranteeing
the provision
of ecosystem
services
Safe
technology
Resilient
transport
Tax-exempt
economic
activities
Promotion of
inclusive markets;
Micro-credits
Strengthening
mechanisms of
institutional
support
Regional or
international
funding

31. 2. Regional platform for monitoring
and exchanging knowledge on
different securities
The growing threats to water, food, energy, and health
security in the Amazon Region (and particularly their
interactions) are not efficiently monitored at either the
regional or national level.
Quality information of a scientific nature is needed on the
status of the different securities and on the regional threats
to water security. Such information would provide input into
the formulation of strategies and public policies for effective
adaptation.

32. Purposes of a knowledge-sharing
methodology
Defining a methodology, agreed upon by the Amazon countries, to
monitor and report on indicators for the different securities.
Promoting the exchange of research and information to foster
increased knowledge on the interdependence between securities and
the possible impact of changes in climate and land use.
Generating information on regional securities in near real-time,
emphasizing key economic areas.
Defining and geo-referencing “zones of high risk to securities”
Exchanging successful experiences (South-South exchange)

33. 3. Incorporate the provision of
water, food, energy and health
security into national planning
Climate change (including extreme climatic phenomena)
multiplies threats to securities provided by the Amazon Region.
Many Amazon countries have recognized the importance of
including climatic variability and climate change for the long term
in public policies, and have incorporated them into national and
regional development plans and into national adaptation plans,
among others.

34. To ensure that these
public policies respond
adequately to the needs
of safeguarding water,
food, energy, and health
(and their interactions) in
the Amazon Region and
beyond, some activities
are recommended: Design action plans that
strategically incorporate
securities while reducing
inequity, inequality, and poverty,
and strongly focusing on
promoting the fundamental
rights associated with the
securities needed by the
inhabitants of the Amazon
Region (e.g., the right to a
standard of living that is
adequate for ensuring health
and access to food, potable
water, necessary social
services, etc.)
Promote regional
dialogue and
differential
approaches for
specific regions,
recognizing the strategic
role of the Amazon
Region in maintaining
securities.
Recognize the
interrelationships
among securities
through interventions
that are strategically
centered on multipliers
of opportunities

35. Thank you!
More information
www.dapa.ciat.cgiar.org/
www.ciat.cgiar.org
c.navarrete@cgiar.org
a.jarvis@cgiar.org
a.c.nowak@cgiar.org