1) The document discusses predicting the impacts of climate change on coffee and mango growing areas in Haiti. It uses environmental niche modeling with bioclimatic variables to model the future suitability of these crops under climate change. 2) The modeling results indicate that coffee production may decline in some lower elevation areas due to higher temperatures and lower rainfall, while mango and other crops like cocoa, sorghum, and yams may become more suitable in other areas. 3) The document recommends diversifying crops in areas where coffee production is expected to decline significantly, and investing in climate-resilient varieties and management practices to maintain coffee production in areas with smaller expected impacts.

1. Prediction of the impact of climate change on
coffee and mango growing areas in Haiti
Anton Eitzinger, Carolina Navarette, Stefanie Neno
Peter Laderach, Stephania Carmona, Carlos Navarrow
August, 28th, 2014, Hotel Montana, Port au Prince, Haiti

3. Decision and Policy Analysis (DAPA)
• Multidisciplinary team, we think that better decisions can be
made with the power of information
•We have a supporting function for other CIAT research areas,
globally we are leaders in different themes, among them
climate change in CCAFS
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4. Principles for Effective Adaptation
• Adaptation is site and context specific
• A first step is reducing vulnerability and exposure to present climate
Source: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/
variability
• Planning and Implementing are contingent on social values, objectives,
and risk perceptions
• Decision support is most effective when it is sensitive to context and
decision processes
• Constraints can impede adaptation planning and Implementation
• Maladaptation, because of poor planning, overemphasizing short-term
outcomes, can increase vulnerability
• Exists co-benefits, synergies, tradeoffs between adaptation & mitigation,
different feedbacks of adaptation measures and regions

5. Climate-Resilient-Pathways
1
• Present Vulnerability
• Perceptions (climate
risks & adaptive
capacity)
• Decision making
process
2 3
• Participative
Prioritization of
adaptation measures
• Analysis of benefits
and tradeoffs
• Implementation
• Evaluation and
Monitoring
• Spatial Scaling CRP

6. Towards climate adapted sustainable
agriculture: Bringing together
Resilience
Technology
adapted
Technology
adapted
+
Site specific
management
Technology
adapted
+
Site specific
management
+
Agro climatic
forecasts
Technology
adapted
+
Site specific
management
+
Agro climatic
forecasts
+
Politics to
facilitate
adaptation and
mitigation
Simple
Agriculture
climate adapted sustainable production

7. Prediction of the impact of climate change on coffee and
mango growing areas in Haiti

8. Modeling Earth climate system
Observe climate Model climate

9. B
9
Research tools Predict impacts on crops
Predecir los impactos a los cultivos
1. How can we predict future crop climate suitability?
By Environmental niche modeling using bioclimatic variables.
Suitability of crops: MaxEnt model
Suitability of crops: Ecocrop model
(EXPOSURE)

10. Bioclimatic variables for suitability modeling
derived from monthly temperature & precipitation
• Bio1 = Annual mean temperature
• Bio2 = Mean diurnal range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp))
• Bio3 = Isothermality (Bio2/Bio7) (* 100)
• Bio4 = Temperature seasonality (standard deviation *100)
• Bio5 = Maximum temperature of warmest month
• Bio6 = Minimum temperature of coldest month
• Bio7 = Temperature Annual Range (Bio5 – Bi06)
• Bio8 = Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter
• Bio9 = Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter
• Bio10 = Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter
• Bio11 = Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter
• Bio12 = Annual Precipitation
• Bio13 = Precipitation of Wettest Month
• Bio14 = Precipitation of Driest Month
• Bio15 = Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)
• Bio16 = Precipitation of Wettest Quarter
• Bio17 = Precipitation of Driest Quarter
• Bio18 = Precipitation of Warmest Quarter
• Bio19 = Precipitation of Coldest Quarter

11. Expert validation of current suitability
• Table sectorielle Agricole du sud,
• Les Responsables du Ministère de l’Environnement
• le staff du programme & partenaires
• Table sectorielle Agricole de la Grand Anse
• Direction de protection Végétale (DPV)
• Institut National du Café Haïtien (INCAH)
• Programme de Mitigation des Désastres Naturels
• Staff du ministère de l’agriculture a Damien
1. For Coffee: The Island in the map named Corail must be replaced by Iles des
Cayemites and not suitable for coffee, this is marginal.
2. The coast of les Irois is not suitable for coffee
3. The coast of Anse d’Hainault is suitable for mango

12. Coffee and Mango in Haiti
Diversification crops
Results

13. Coffee & Mango vs. Altitude
Results

14. 3 strategies for adapting coffee systems
to future climate change
1. Invest in areas that will become more suitable
for coffee (conserve natural resources)
2. Maintain coffee production in areas that will
become slightly less suitable through targeted
measures
3. Start diversifying where coffee is likely to
decrease significantly, eventually switching to
cocoa

15. Common beans
• decrease quite substantially
• up to -70% of areas climate-suitable, available and without
limitations in soil capacity
• currently most areas are limited by maximum temperatures and
could benefit from heat tolerance resistant varieties
Results

16. cocoa
• possess excellent suitability for cocoa in many areas and this is not predicted to be
affected by changes from long-term climate patterns
• opportunity to benefit from an increasing global demand for cocoa production
• Main problems are small production volumes, low quality and continuing issues with
fragile producer organizations should be the main focus for development
Results

17. Maize and Sorghum
• maize yields have clearly indicated a strong negative yield response to
accumulated days above 30 °C
• specific response of maize to increased high temperature days, modeling
climate-suitability on a monthly timescale is highly uncertain
• sorghum will increase its suitability in Haiti between 4 and 8% in available
land with no or low limited soil capacity.
Results

18. Yam and Malanga
Results
• About 6 species (out of 600 species of yam) are
cultivated in the Caribbean
• we modeled 2 varieties (D. rotundata, D. trifida or
cushcush ) of yam and malanga (dasheen)
• Results show that cushcush yam is losing
suitability
• White and yellow yam is gaining suitability and
available areas remain more or less constant all
over Haiti by 2050
• Malanga is shifting its geographical areas of
suitability but generally losing suitability and
areas

19. Groundnut
• important secondary crop grown throughout most of
rural Haiti
• Our climate-suitability analysis reveals that climate
change could provide an opportunity for this crop
Results

20. Haiti's landcover (1:300,000 scale) - year 2008 and Haiti's soil use capacity for agriculture
(1:250,000 scale) - year 1998; created by the Haitian National Centre for Geospatial
Information (CNIGS); downloaded from: http://www.haitidata.org
• Intersect climate suitability with
– Land use restrictions
– Protected areas & conservation
– Soil capacity & erosion
– …

21. Results
Haiti
Danger for forests
New areas, need strategic
investment
In mid altitude zones ,
potentials for diversification,
but crops are competing
Less area for cropping

22. Key results
• Threat by sea level rise and climate variability
• Coffee yield/quality may decline at lower elevations as a result of lower
rainfall and higher night and daytime temperatures
• Risk of conversion of high-altitude forests and protected areas to cropland
• Ecosystem services provided by coffee must be protected through risk
management (short- and long-term)
• Areas where climate change will affect coffee only marginal, farmer should
adapt their production by investing (shade management, irrigation, new
varieties)
• In areas where coffee will be much less suitable in the future, landowners
should begin diversifying (e.g cocoa to maintain the ecosystem benefit of
agroforestry systems)
• Mango will remain highly suitable and could, therefore , replace in lower
altitudes coffee and dry beans systems
• Sorghum and yam are also good options for crop diversification, since its
likely that they become more suitable in the future

23. Further recommended actions
• Develop climate stress-resilient coffee varieties;
validate agronomic management; improve
market linkages
• Financial assistance (subsidies, insurance,
payment for ecosystem services)
• Promote diversification as short-term risk and
bridge to full crop substitution as long-term
strategy in respective areas
• Strenghen capacity and linkages with regional
and global networks to exchange knowledge and
climate-change adaptation expertise