1. Global impact of climate change
on Coffee and Cocoa Suitability
O. Ovalle, P. Laderach, C. Bunn
IIASA, Laxenburg.
December 2011
Pic by Lenareh Pic by N. Palmer

2. Outline
• Methodology
• Results
- Coffee
- Cacao
• Next step
Pic by N. Palmer

3. Methodology
Pic by N. Palmer

4. Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
Climate base line
Precipitation: 47,554 locations Mean temperature: 24,542 locations Min – Max temp.: 14,835 locations
19 bioclimatic variables.
Data base Worldclim: www.worldclim.org

5. Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
Global Climate Models (GCM)
• 21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basing in science
atmospheric, chemical, physical, biology
• It runs from past to future.
• There are different scenarios of gas emissions.
POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY (EMISSIONS), AND
SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY (MODELS)

6. Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
Global Climate Models (GCM)

7. Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
Process: Database
• Data base CIAT for 2030 and 2050
• For the elaboration of adapting paths
http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/
Data Base

8. Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
GCM: scenarios
Scenario A2
• Heterogeneous world
• Increasing global
population
• Economics development
is primarily regionally
oriented
• Technological change
area more fragmented.

9. Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
Summary methodology
Current climate
• 19 bioclimatic variables (worldclim)
Climate change
• Downscaling
• Generation of 19 bioclimatic variables
Future climate
• Current climate + change = Future climate

10. Methodology. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
Modelling coffee and cocoa
Geo-referencing coffee and cocoa farms.
Climate data
 Training of technical assistants.
MaxEnt

11. Results
Pic by N. Palmer

12. Coffee
Pic by N. Palmer

13. Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability
Global coffee distribution

14. Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability
Future climate in coffee – growing Areas
(mm) Precipitation Temperature (ºC)
300 25
24
2050 23
22
250 2030 21
20
current 19
200 - - +
18
17
16
- - 15
150
+ + 14
13
12
+ 11
10
9
100
+ + + + 8
7
6
5
50 4
3
2
1
0 0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

15. Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability
Global coffee suitability map

16. Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability
Global coffee suitability map

17. Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability
Suitability vs altitude

18. Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability
Coefficient of Variation (CV)

19. Result. Global impact of climate change on coffee suitability
Measure agreement

20. COCOA
Pic by Christine4nier

21. Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability
Global cocoa distribution

22. Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability
Future climate in cocoa – growing Areas
(mm) Precipitation Temperature (ºC)
250 30
29
2050
28
2030 27
200 26
+ + + + current
25
24
+ + 23
150
+ + 22
21
+
+ +
20
100
+ 19
18
17
16
15
50 14
13
12
11
0 10
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

23. Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability
Global cocoa suitability map

24. Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability
Global cocoa suitability map

25. Results Global Cocoa suitability map
Suitability vs altitude

26. Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability
Coefficient of Variation (CV)

27. Result. Global impact of climate change on cocoa suitability
Measure agreement

28. Next step
Pic by N. Palmer

29. Next step. Global impact of climate change on coffee and cocoa suitability
Relationship Suitability vs production
• Objective:
– Improve Impact assessments on perennial crops
• Problem:
– Alternative approaches are often unfeasible
– The models assume constant economic conditions
• Question:
– How can we link Ecological Niche Models with partial
equilibrium models to assess climate change impacts on
the coffee industry and similar production systems?
• Hypothesis:
– Ecological Niche Models assign a „suitability“ score. From
this score we can infer economic proxies to model future
price conditions.

30. Thank you!!!