Elizabeth Baron's presentation at the 2010 annual meeting of the Association of American Geographers in Washington DC.

1. The role of pasture and soybean in deforestation of the
Brazilian Amazon
Elizabeth Barona – CIAT
Glenn Hyman - CIAT
Navin Ramankutty – McGill University.
Oliver Coomes – McGill University
AAG - Annual meeting 2010
Washington D.C..

2. Million hectares
Brazil’s territory ~ 850
Potential farmland 320
Cultivated land – all 60
crops
Source: Ministry of Agriculture - Brazil
“the increasing role of large-
scale agriculture and the
vast remaining potential
expansion of farming in
Amazon is causing concern
about deforestation and the
loss of ecosystem goods
and services “(Foley 2007;
Fearnside 2005; Morton
2006).

3. Deforestation in the Amazon
Agriculture
Agriculture
Roads
Roads
Cattle ranching
Cattle ranching
Logging
Logging
Fire

4. International debate
 Deforestation is related to growth of the cattle industry
Cattle, not soy, drives Amazon deforestation: News Report
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE53D65C20090414.
 Deforestation is related to the expanding soybean
sector
Expansion of cropland (mainly soy) into areas previously
covered by forest has become one of the main causes of
deforestation in southern Brazilian Amazon. (Morton et. al
2006)
 Soybean is expanding into land previously under
pasture, and not causing new deforestation (Mueller,
2003; Brandao et.al 2005)

5. Is soybean or pasture expansion the key driver of
deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon?
• Agricultural expansion
•Soybean versus Pasture
• Data at municipality level for the entire Amazon for 2000-2006
• Census/Survey from IBGE
• Estimated annual pasture (based on livestock data)
• Deforestation from INPE
•Relationship between agricultural expansion and deforestation
•Spatial patterns, statistical relationship, and potential
spatial shift in land use cover were analyzed over the
period 2000-2006

6. Agricultural Expansion

7. SOYBEAN
Main countries importing soybean products from Brazil
Source: FAOSTAT 2006.

8. SOYBEAN
Area under cultivation in Brazil in 2006
% harvested
CROPS Total harvested area (Ha) area change
1990 1995 2000 2006 1990 to 2006
Soybean 11,487,303 11,675,005 13,656,771 22,047,349 93.46
Maize 11,394,307 13,946,320 11,890,376 12,613,094 10.79
Sugar Cane 4,272,602 4,559,062 4,804,511 6,144,286 16.57
Beans 4,680,094 5,006,403 4,332,545 4,034,383 -5.71
Rice 3,946,691 4,373,538 3,664,804 2,970,918 -8.64
Cassava 1,937,567 1,946,163 1,708,875 1,896,509 -0.36
Wheat 2,680,989 994,734 1,138,687 1,560,175 -9.92
Cotton 1,391,884 1,103,536 801,618 898,008 -4.37
Sorghum 137,758 153,961 528,061 722,200 5.17
Source: IBGE (2006).

9. Livestock production
Animal Total animal units Percentage
category 1990 1995 2000 2006 2006
Cattle 141,584,610 155,753,722 164,077,786 197,861,606 93.17%
Horses 5,787,045 6,054,538 5,547,335 5,452,630 2.57%
Buffalos 1,629,052 1,922,237 1,291,130 1,350,129 0.64%
Donkeys 1,129,280 1,131,824 1,044,912 1,000,488 0.47%
Mules 1,866,668 1,819,162 1,217,851 1,253,296 0.59%
Goats 2,325,782 2,207,304 1,808,175 2,018,878 0.95%
Sheep 4,534,176 4,153,792 3,219,687 3,427,127 1.61%
Total 158,856,614 173,042,578 178,206,876 212,364,154

10. PASTURE
Crop and pasture distribution- 2006
in Legal Amazon

11. Large-scale forest conversion for cattle ranching along the
arc of deforestation

12. Data Source

13. Data Processing
Compiling census data on
land use for 2000-2006:
- Total harvested Area
(IBGE/SIDRA database)
- Estimated pastures (IBGE
Livestock data)
Deforestation
INPE (The National Institute for
space research in Brazil) /
PRODES (Amazon
Deforestation Project): Annual
deforested areas based on
LANDSAT Images

14. Developing consistent administrative boundaries

15. Estimated pasture area (from IBGE Livestock data):
1- Total Livestock unit
L ,t ∑i ,k A i )
T i )= N,t ) fU(,k
U( (
k
2- Livestock stocking density and linear interpolation
S( = i / i, = 2
L i) T( ) ( )t 1 ,0
Dt L , P
, Ut , t 9 0
9 6
6
S i2 −Di1
L (,0 ) L (,9 )
D 0 6 S 9
6
S it =Di1 +
L (, ) L (,9 )
D S 9
6 ( 1 ) t=0 ,0 . 2
t−6 ,
9
9 2 2 . 0
0 0 . 0
0 1, , 6
(0 −6 )
20 1
6 99
3- Estimated area under pasture for 2000-2006
T i)
L ,t
U(
P(,t
es
t i )= , t=0 ,0 ,. 2
2 2 ., 0
0 0 . 0
0 1 6
L (,t
S i)
D

16. Spatial and Statistical
Analysis

17. Statistical relationship between change in deforested area and change in
agricultural area
Outliers

18. MATO GROSSO
Deforestation
Deforestation
Pasture change Soybean change
Pasture change
Soybean change

19. PARA
Deforestation
Deforestation
Pasture change Soybean change
Pasture change
Soybean change

20. RONDONIA
Deforestation
Deforestation
Pasture change Soybean change
Pasture change
Soybean change

21. Mato Grosso
Para
Pasture change
Deforestation
Rondonia
Pasture change soybean change soybean change

22. Spatial Patterns: Changes in area of different land uses in the Legal Amazon
Deforestation Pasture
Total harvested crops area Soybean

23. Movement of the centroid of land use type

24. Land-use transitions between 2000 and 2006

25. Main findings
 Consistent with other studies, soybean
expansion is replacing pasture areas
 However, soybeans may have displaced pasture
further north into the forest areas, causing
indirect deforestation there.
 Even if the proximate cause of deforestation
were mainly ranching, it is likely that soy
cultivation is a major underlying cause

26. CONCLUSION
 Need for more large-scale studies and more field-based research to
test the land-use displacement hypothesis.
 Policy makers face important tradeoffs to satisfy the demands of the
cattle and soybean industries vs conservation interests: policies that
benefit one group, will likely work to the detriment of the others.
 The dynamics of land-use changes are complex, and simple-
minded policies to curb deforestation, without a full understanding of
the underlying dynamics, will not work

27. THANK YOU!