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The Peruvian telecom market




                                         Investor presentation


                                           Lima, November 20st 2008


Proyecto WiMax TISel: plan de negocios
                                                    1 de 26           1 of 26
Informe final. Setiembre 2007
Agenda



 • The Peruvian telecom market
                 • Economic overview
                 • Industry overview
                 • Trends




The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                      2 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Economic overview
                                                                                      Consistently stable growth
                                     Peru vs. Latin America. Key economic indicators 2005-2007
                       12%

                       10%

                         8%

    GDP real             6%
                                                                                                                                +5,9%
   growth (%)            4%

                         2%

                         0%




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                                                                                                                            x
                        20%


                        15%

  Inflation (%)         10%

                                                                                                                                +6,6%
         LatAm           5%
         2005-07 avg
  2005-2007              0%
  2007




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Source: World Bank, IMF, Central Banks
The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                                  3 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Desarrollos recientes
                                             Crecimiento consistente de las inversiones
                                      Perú. Inversiones 2002-2007e
                                             (US$m, % sobre PBI)


                                                                                  TCC1: +17%

          25 000                                                                              23%        25%
                                                                                                                   Impulso
          20 000                                                                  20%                          especialmente
                           18%           18%                                                             20%    fuerte en los
          15 000                                       18%          18%
                                                                                                               últimos 2 años
          10 000
                                                                                                         15%
            5 000

                  0                                                                                      10%
                          2002          2003          2004          2005          2006    2007e

                                          US$ miles m                           % sobre PBI
1 Tasa de crecimiento anual compuesta (TCC %) para el período
Fuente: BCRP, MEF
The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                                    4 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Agenda



 • The Peruvian telecom market
                 • Economic overview
                 • Industry overview
                 • Trends




The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                      5 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Industry overview
      Consistent growth, mobile and broadband services drive
      growth
                             Mercado telecom Perú                                                        Indicadores operativos 2T08
                                                                         US$ 3 835m
                           Ingresos por servicio                                                        Magnitud             Densidad
                                                                        (2,9% de PBI)
                        2005-2008e (US$m, % TCC)                                                        operativa           de mercado
                                                        TCC % 05-08         % del total
                            504
    Telf fija                                               1%                  13%                     2,7m líneas              10%
                            515

                   256
 Telf pública
                   239                                      -3%                 6%                     184 mil líneas      7 x cada mil hab.
                                  823
  Telf móvil                                               44%                  53%
                                                2 046                                                  18,2 m líneas             66%
     Larga       185
   distancia      231                                       9%                  6%                      1 542 m min          84 min/mes

    Internet    129
                                                           40%                  8%                  797 mil suscriptores          3%
     masivo           299

  Datos &       106
                                                           23%                  5%                    16,9 mil enlaces           n.a.
internet corp    178

                127
    TV paga                                                20%                  5%                  861 mil suscriptores          3%
                  199                   2005
                64                      2008e
       Otros                                               32%                  4%                          n.a.                 n.a.
                 129

      Fuente: SIT A. Latina                                       Ingresos totales 2008e del mercado telecom Perú
      The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                                          6 of 18
      Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Desarrollos recientes
                       Crecimiento consistente de las inversiones telecom

                               Perú. Inversiones telecom 2002-2006
                                  (US$m, % sobre ingresos telecom)

                                                                              TCC: +15%

           500                                                                                     20%    Superior
                                                                            17%         17%
                                           17%                                                           a estándar
           400           15%                               15%                                           A. Latina:
                                                                                                   15%
           300
                                                                                                          ~12-15%
           200
                                                                                                   10%
           100

               0                                                                                   5%
                        2002             2003              2004             2005        2006

                                 Inversiones telecom                     I / ing telecom (%)
1 Tasa de crecimiento anual compuesta (TCC %) para el período
Fuente: Osiptel, BCRP, estimaciones propias
The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                               7 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Industry overview
                                                                                              Market concentration
                     Peru & Latin America. Market share, by telecom service 2007 (%)

                                                       1% 1%                                                      3%
                                                                                                   33%            36%
                                 51%

                                                        98%                                        39%
        Fixed                    22%                                              Mobile
                                                                                                                  61%
                                 26%                                                               28%

                               L atA m                  P eru                                    L atA m         P eru

                                                     0,3% 0,4%                                                    13%
                                                                                                                   4%
                                 48%
                                                                                                   80%
                                                         99%
     Broadband                   26%                                              Pay TV                          82%

                                 26%                                                               15%
                                                                                                   5%
                               L atA m                  P eru                                    L atA m         P eru

                                                      TEF          TMX / AMX          Other
Source: TIS Latin America
The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                                8 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Industry overview
               Consistent growth, but still room for further expansion
                                                     Peru vs. Latin America. 2007

                      Penetration                                                                     Peru & Latin America
                          (%)                                                                              (% of GDP)
                                                                                      8%

                      69
                      %
                                                                                               Bol
                                                                                      6%              Par
                                                                                                      CentralAm




                                                                           % of GDP
                      56%                                                                                              LA 4%                  Chi
                                                                                      4%                                   Bra         Mex
                                                                                                     Ecu
                                                                                                                                               Ven
                                                                                                           Col                   Uru
                                                                                                           Per (3%)                          Arg
       15
                                                                                      2%
       %                             2,6              6,4
      10%                            %                %
                                       2%             3%
                                                                                      0%
      Fixed          Mobile       Broadband         Pay TV                             2,000                       8,000                     14,000

            Average LatAm                                                                            Per capita GDP (US$ PPP)

Source: TIS Latin America
The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                                                 9 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Industry overview
                                                                                      Regulation agenda (1 of 2)
       1.      Competition

       a.Pricing deregulation in LD (Automatic subscriber segment).

       b.Mobile operator obligations for number portability

       c. Revision of interconnection charges (capacity charge).

       d.New maximum pricing for leased lines (going into effect).

       e.Changes in the Quality Rules Manual (new indicators and administrative sanctions have
         been included).

       f. Infrastructure expansion: coordination with local governments to simplify administrative
          activities.

       g.Policy changes driven by the Peru-US FTA: infrastructure sharing, LLU, interconnection
         among others

       h.Minimize number of regulated services (“desclasificación”)

       i. Voice over IP
The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                            10 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Industry overview
                                                                                      Regulation agenda (2 of 2)

       1.      Universal access

              a.      Promote the development of a national backbone and broadband services.

              b.      Promote technological innovation

              c.      Payment of fees (“canon”) and contribution to FITEL according to minimized
                      classification of services

              d.      Obligations to the Emergency Communications System.




The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                            11 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Agenda



 • The Peruvian telecom market
                 • Economic overview
                 • Industry overview
                 • Trends




The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                      12 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Trends
                              Convergence technology, regulatory, commercial:
                                                            everything over IP
                          In 2010, la mayoría de los operadores globales
                  habrá concluido su migración hacia un mundo de convergencia.




Source: Pyramid Research
The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                      13 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Trends
                                                                                                 Key takeaways




The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                      14 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Trends
                                 Convergence strategies. Mobile telephony in LA
                                                                                                 Revenue from “data” representing
                                                                                                  approx 14% of total

                                                                                                 Revenue from “data” representing
                                                                                                  approx 12% of total




                TEF y AMX (11 countries)

                 Only TEF (2 contries)


                 Only AMX (2 countries)

                 None (2 countries)




      Deployment of 3G networks
Source: TIS Latin America
The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                      15 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Trends
                                   Convergence strategies. Fixed telephony in LA

                                                                                                 Convergence in services,
                                                                                                 Telefónica and Telmex
                                                                                                 drive competition




                TEF y TMX (8 countries)

                Only TEF (0 countries)


                Only TMX (1 country)

                None (8 countries)



           Triple play package

           Triple play package

Fuente: SIT América Latina, análisis propio
The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                      16 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Trends
                            Convergence strategies. Mobile telephony in Peru

                                                         Now                                    What comes next?




                                                                                                        Broadband
                                                                                                          mobile

                                                                                Smartphone
                                                                                  devices

                                                      Texting


                          Voice

                                                                         Time
Fuente: www.movistar.com.pe; www.claro.com.pe
The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                             17 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Trends
                              Convergence strategies. Fixed telephony in Peru

                                                         Now                                      What comes next?




                                                                                                     Convergence
                                                                                                      tecnologhy

                                                                                Convergence
                                                                                 in services

                                                    Broadband


                          Voice
                                                                         Time
Fuente: www.telefonica.com.pe; www.telmex.com.pe
The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                               18 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
Industry overview
                                                                                                 Key takeaways
 • The last few years have been quite favorable for the economy and the telecom sector in
   Peru.

 • Service coverage and penetration rates have grown considerably and in a sustained
   manner. This is reflected in revenues. The highest growth services are broadband and
   mobile telephony, in that order.

 • Despite the growth of recent years, the penetration rates in Peru are still low, resulting in
   a high degree of inequality, particularly between Lima and the rest of the country.

 • Strong growth in the industry is foreseen over the next few years due to sustained
   economic growth of the country, technological convergence (giving rise to disruptive
   services: VoIP), and government policy promoting universal access and competition.

 • Such growth will come through convergent business models developed by operators and
   promoted by the government.

 • The arrival of these business models under the umbrella of a national broadband
   development model will contribute to the reduction of the digital gap in Peru, thus
   bringing about further development of the country.

The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective.
                                                                                      19 of 18
Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008

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Mercado telecom: tendencias

  • 1. The Peruvian telecom market Investor presentation Lima, November 20st 2008 Proyecto WiMax TISel: plan de negocios 1 de 26 1 of 26 Informe final. Setiembre 2007
  • 2. Agenda • The Peruvian telecom market • Economic overview • Industry overview • Trends The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 2 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 3. Economic overview Consistently stable growth Peru vs. Latin America. Key economic indicators 2005-2007 12% 10% 8% GDP real 6% +5,9% growth (%) 4% 2% 0% N C C B A P o P h B e o a c a U E g C v S V P o n u u M r E n r e a G r r H c l l i i s r n u o e a x 20% 15% Inflation (%) 10% +6,6% LatAm 5% 2005-07 avg 2005-2007 0% 2007 N C C B h o o P A P c e B a U E a a C g V o P u n u E n e H a M r r s c G r r l l i i s n o r u é a x Source: World Bank, IMF, Central Banks The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 3 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 4. Desarrollos recientes Crecimiento consistente de las inversiones Perú. Inversiones 2002-2007e (US$m, % sobre PBI) TCC1: +17% 25 000 23% 25% Impulso 20 000 20% especialmente 18% 18% 20% fuerte en los 15 000 18% 18% últimos 2 años 10 000 15% 5 000 0 10% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007e US$ miles m % sobre PBI 1 Tasa de crecimiento anual compuesta (TCC %) para el período Fuente: BCRP, MEF The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 4 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 5. Agenda • The Peruvian telecom market • Economic overview • Industry overview • Trends The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 5 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 6. Industry overview Consistent growth, mobile and broadband services drive growth Mercado telecom Perú Indicadores operativos 2T08 US$ 3 835m Ingresos por servicio Magnitud Densidad (2,9% de PBI) 2005-2008e (US$m, % TCC) operativa de mercado TCC % 05-08 % del total 504 Telf fija 1% 13% 2,7m líneas 10% 515 256 Telf pública 239 -3% 6% 184 mil líneas 7 x cada mil hab. 823 Telf móvil 44% 53% 2 046 18,2 m líneas 66% Larga 185 distancia 231 9% 6% 1 542 m min 84 min/mes Internet 129 40% 8% 797 mil suscriptores 3% masivo 299 Datos & 106 23% 5% 16,9 mil enlaces n.a. internet corp 178 127 TV paga 20% 5% 861 mil suscriptores 3% 199 2005 64 2008e Otros 32% 4% n.a. n.a. 129 Fuente: SIT A. Latina Ingresos totales 2008e del mercado telecom Perú The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 6 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 7. Desarrollos recientes Crecimiento consistente de las inversiones telecom Perú. Inversiones telecom 2002-2006 (US$m, % sobre ingresos telecom) TCC: +15% 500 20% Superior 17% 17% 17% a estándar 400 15% 15% A. Latina: 15% 300 ~12-15% 200 10% 100 0 5% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Inversiones telecom I / ing telecom (%) 1 Tasa de crecimiento anual compuesta (TCC %) para el período Fuente: Osiptel, BCRP, estimaciones propias The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 7 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 8. Industry overview Market concentration Peru & Latin America. Market share, by telecom service 2007 (%) 1% 1% 3% 33% 36% 51% 98% 39% Fixed 22% Mobile 61% 26% 28% L atA m P eru L atA m P eru 0,3% 0,4% 13% 4% 48% 80% 99% Broadband 26% Pay TV 82% 26% 15% 5% L atA m P eru L atA m P eru TEF TMX / AMX Other Source: TIS Latin America The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 8 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 9. Industry overview Consistent growth, but still room for further expansion Peru vs. Latin America. 2007 Penetration Peru & Latin America (%) (% of GDP) 8% 69 % Bol 6% Par CentralAm % of GDP 56% LA 4% Chi 4% Bra Mex Ecu Ven Col Uru Per (3%) Arg 15 2% % 2,6 6,4 10% % % 2% 3% 0% Fixed Mobile Broadband Pay TV 2,000 8,000 14,000 Average LatAm Per capita GDP (US$ PPP) Source: TIS Latin America The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 9 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 10. Industry overview Regulation agenda (1 of 2) 1. Competition a.Pricing deregulation in LD (Automatic subscriber segment). b.Mobile operator obligations for number portability c. Revision of interconnection charges (capacity charge). d.New maximum pricing for leased lines (going into effect). e.Changes in the Quality Rules Manual (new indicators and administrative sanctions have been included). f. Infrastructure expansion: coordination with local governments to simplify administrative activities. g.Policy changes driven by the Peru-US FTA: infrastructure sharing, LLU, interconnection among others h.Minimize number of regulated services (“desclasificación”) i. Voice over IP The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 10 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 11. Industry overview Regulation agenda (2 of 2) 1. Universal access a. Promote the development of a national backbone and broadband services. b. Promote technological innovation c. Payment of fees (“canon”) and contribution to FITEL according to minimized classification of services d. Obligations to the Emergency Communications System. The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 11 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 12. Agenda • The Peruvian telecom market • Economic overview • Industry overview • Trends The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 12 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 13. Trends Convergence technology, regulatory, commercial: everything over IP In 2010, la mayoría de los operadores globales habrá concluido su migración hacia un mundo de convergencia. Source: Pyramid Research The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 13 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 14. Trends Key takeaways The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 14 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 15. Trends Convergence strategies. Mobile telephony in LA Revenue from “data” representing approx 14% of total Revenue from “data” representing approx 12% of total TEF y AMX (11 countries) Only TEF (2 contries) Only AMX (2 countries) None (2 countries) Deployment of 3G networks Source: TIS Latin America The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 15 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 16. Trends Convergence strategies. Fixed telephony in LA Convergence in services, Telefónica and Telmex drive competition TEF y TMX (8 countries) Only TEF (0 countries) Only TMX (1 country) None (8 countries) Triple play package Triple play package Fuente: SIT América Latina, análisis propio The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 16 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 17. Trends Convergence strategies. Mobile telephony in Peru Now What comes next? Broadband mobile Smartphone devices Texting Voice Time Fuente: www.movistar.com.pe; www.claro.com.pe The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 17 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 18. Trends Convergence strategies. Fixed telephony in Peru Now What comes next? Convergence tecnologhy Convergence in services Broadband Voice Time Fuente: www.telefonica.com.pe; www.telmex.com.pe The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 18 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008
  • 19. Industry overview Key takeaways • The last few years have been quite favorable for the economy and the telecom sector in Peru. • Service coverage and penetration rates have grown considerably and in a sustained manner. This is reflected in revenues. The highest growth services are broadband and mobile telephony, in that order. • Despite the growth of recent years, the penetration rates in Peru are still low, resulting in a high degree of inequality, particularly between Lima and the rest of the country. • Strong growth in the industry is foreseen over the next few years due to sustained economic growth of the country, technological convergence (giving rise to disruptive services: VoIP), and government policy promoting universal access and competition. • Such growth will come through convergent business models developed by operators and promoted by the government. • The arrival of these business models under the umbrella of a national broadband development model will contribute to the reduction of the digital gap in Peru, thus bringing about further development of the country. The Peruvian telecom markets in the Latin American context: a “glocal” perspective. 19 of 18 Investor presentation. Lima, October 10th 2008