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POLI 399 – Research Methods Week Four Causal Modelling

Today’s Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Establishing a Causal Relationship ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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What is a Causal Model? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Modelling Conservative Support in Canada X 1 Support for less government intervention Y 1 Support for Steven Harper + X 3 gender X 2 Region +/- +/-

Modelling Support for Private Health Care X 1 X 2 Duration of Canadian citizenship Education Y 1 Support for private health care + X 3 Income + X 4 Possession of “Canadian values” + – +

Things to include in your model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

In-class Example ,[object Object],[object Object]

Modelling Support for Same Sex Marriage Y 1 Support for Same Sex Marriage X 1 Age - Initial Relationships A negative sign can be interpreted like this: As a person’s age increases their support for same sex marriage decreases. (Positive X Negative = Negative) Education Level X 2 +

Modelling Support for Same Sex Marriage ,[object Object],[object Object]

Modelling Support for Same Sex Marriage Y 1 Support for Same Sex Marriage X 3 Religiosity Age - X 1 - Education Level X 2 + A positive sign can be interpreted like this: The higher one’s level of education, the greater their support for same sex marriage. (Positive X Positive= Positive)

Modeling Support for Same Sex Marriage Y 1 Support for Same Sex Marriage X 3 Religiosity Age - X 1 + Education Level X 2 - Religiosity acts as an intervening variable

Intervening Variable Model: Support for Same Sex Marriage Y 1 Support for Same Sex Marriage X 3 Religiosity Age - X 1 + Education Level X 2 - By including religiosity as an intervening variable, I am hypothesizing that religiosity is most important because young people, who are very religious are still less likely to support same-sex marriage than then young people who are not religious.

Source of Spuriousness Model ,[object Object],[object Object],Y X S/S

How to Create Models in MS Word ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

In-class Example ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

For Next Time... ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Learning Outcomes 1. Describe correlations and regression analyses. 2. Analyze the relationship between correlations and predictions. Introduction In contrast to Week Three where statistical tests focusing on differences were introduced, in Week Four, you will explore relationships in statistical tests. Correlations and linear regression techniques will be utilized and results will be evaluated and interpreted. The written assignments in Weeks One, Two, and Three prepared you for analyzing and evaluating research articles. In the written assignment this week, you will focus less on actual research and more on the report writing process. If you work in a social/behavioral sciences field, you will likely be asked to conduct research (i.e., conduct an experiment or study) and create a report based on your findings. Generally speaking, people who investigate a scientific hypothesis have a responsibility to the scientific community to share those results. This is particularly true when that investigation adds to/or contradicts previous research. The research report outlines each step that was done during the research and summarizes the results and conclusions. The goal is to give the reader enough information so that the methods and results can be accurately evaluated, and the conclusions can be replicated if necessary. Although the research report this week will be based on hypothetical and/or fictitious data, the process of creating a correctly formatted research report with all the necessary components will provide you with important skills as you progress through your degree and as you continue into the world of the social/behavioral sciences. Required Resources Required Text Read from the course text, Statistics for the Behavioral & Social Sciences: · Chapter 8: Correlation · Chapter 9: Linear Regression Recommended Resources Articles 1. Kirwan, J., Lounsbury, J., Gibson, L. (2010). Self-direction in learning and personality: The Big Five and narrow personality traits in relation to learner self-direction. International Journal of Self-Directed Learning, 7(2), 21-34. Retrieved from http://sdlglobal.com/IJSDL/IJSDL7.2-2010.pdf#page=25 · This is an article about personality, self-directed learning, and scale development and the major traits that may affect them. These include: agreeableness, conscientiousness, emotional stability, and openness. It incorporates correlation and regression procedures with tables that display the statistical results. 2. Stark, P.B. (2013). Chapter 9: Regression. Retrieved from http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~stark/SticiGui/Text/regression.htm · This website contains several video lectures and examples of how regression is used. 3. Trochim, W. M. (2006). Correlation. In Research Methods Knowledge Base. Retrieved from http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/statcorr.php · This website contains many tutorials and tools for statistical analyses and methods used in the social sciences. This pa ...

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you will access from a database of opinion and attitude questions posed to a representative sample of Americans (see below for details on how to do this). You will learn how to use this survey data base, report on the results of survey question(s) and analyze the relationship between the responses to the question and what these attitudes reflect about the changing nature of American values over time. Please read the entire instructions before you begin or you won’t know how to use the survey database, which takes a bit of time to learn. You will present your analysis following using the following organizational format: 1. Introduction: Briefly discuss the relationship between values and how they relate to attitudes about social institutions and societal concerns. 2. Body/Analysis: Describe trends or changes based on the example provided. Be sure to include the most recent data that runs up to 2016 (or later if available) in your report. See the section on "presenting the analysis" below for more specific instructions. 3. Consider the possible "contradiction" or tension in the data results (again, see below for details) in relation to American values we've considered and changes in American society related, for example, to sexuality, gender, rights, etc. Explain what underlying values may be in conflict here that account for the tension? Specifically, what principles of American values that we have covered may be at play in accounting for this? Look back at the Robin Williams list and especially the chapter assigned for Week 5 to help you (you should cite both). What historical events or other shifts in American society may account for the change in attitudes over time? Finally, compare your own values to survey findings from the SDA data. In what ways are these findings from a national sample of Americans relevant to your values? (not necessarily about the specific questions asked if you don't want, but in that case, explain them in relation to what the data may say about change in American attitudes overall). 4. Conclusion: Present the highlights of your analysis and what you consider to be the major implications of your analysis in terms of a connection to the real-world. Note: Remember from SOCY100 that a variable is any socially related phenomena that varies or changes or a category into which people may be grouped in ways that can be different from one another. For example, it may be an attitude, a belief, income, age, social class, etc. There are two major categories of variables: Independent Variables and Dependent Variables. The Independent Variable predicts or affects the value or level of a Dependent Variable. The Dependent Variable is affected by, or differs based on, the Independent Variable. In this assignment, the Year that the survey data was collected is the Independent Variable. You will be comparing changes in survey responses for specific issues, or beliefs from year to year. Therefore, time in this case, is the.

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BUS308 Week 4 Lecture 1 Examining Relationships Expected Outcomes After reading this lecture, the student should be familiar with: 1. Issues around correlation 2. The basics of Correlation analysis 3. The basics of Linear Regression 4. The basics of the Multiple Regression Overview Often in our detective shows when the clues are not providing a clear answer – such as we are seeing with the apparent continuing contradiction between the compa-ratio and salary related results – we hear the line “maybe we need to look at this from a different viewpoint.” That is what we will be doing this week. Our investigation changes focus a bit this week. We started the class by finding ways to describe and summarize data sets – finding measures of the center and dispersion of the data with means, medians, standard deviations, ranges, etc. As interesting as these clues were, they did not tell us all we needed to know to solve our question about equal work for equal pay. In fact, the evidence was somewhat contradictory depending upon what measure we focused on. In Weeks 2 and 3, we changed our focus to asking questions about differences and how important different sample outcomes were. We found that all differences were not important, and that for many relatively small result differences we could safely ignore them for decision making purposes – they were due to simple sampling (or chance) errors. We found that this idea of sampling error could extend into work and individual performance outcomes observed over time; and that over- reacting to such differences did not make much sense. Now, in our continuing efforts to detect and uncover what the data is hiding from us, we change focus again as we start to find out why something happened, what caused the data to act as it did; rather than merely what happened (describing the data as we have been doing). This week we move from examining differences to looking at relationships; that is, if some measure changes does another measure change as well? And, if so, can we use this information to make predictions and/or understand what underlies this common movement? Our tools in doing this involve correlation, the measurement of how closely two variables move together; and regression, an equation showing the impact of inputs on a final output. A regression is similar to a recipe for a cake or other food dish; take a bit of this and some of that, put them together, and we get our result. Correlation We have seen correlations a lot, and probably have even used them (formally or informally). We know, for example, that all other things being equal; the more we eat. the more we weigh. Kids, up to the early teens, grow taller the older they get. If we consistently speed, we will get more speeding tickets than those who obey the speed limit. The more efforts we put into studying, the better grades we get. All of these are examples of correlations. Correlatio.

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The Elaboration Model Introduction The elaboration model refers to a protocol for analyzing relationships among variables for the purpose of testing theories.This protocol is common to all sciences.In some ways it is applied differently in the social sciences compared with the life and physical sciences because the social sciences:work more with abstract variables.cannot physically control social variables to analyze their effects on other variables. The Elaboration Model Introduction (Continued) Earl Babbie uses the term, “Elaboration Model,” to refer to this protocol for investigating cause and effect among variables.Other names:Interpretation model.Lazersfeld method.Columbia school.or simply, Scientific Method. The Elaboration Model Introduction (Continued) This presentation will:Describe the origin of the elaboration model. Explain the rationale for using the model.Explain the steps in using the model.Explain each type of relationship between variables that should be investigated with the model.Provide an example of an application of the model. Origin of the Model The American Soldier Stouffer et al. sought to understand how to increase the motivation and morale of soldiers in the U.S. Army. The researchers sought ways to explain seemingly non-rational behavior among U.S. soldiers during their training for duty during WWII. Origin of the Model The American Soldier (Continued) Consider these three hypotheses: The greater the promotions, the greater the morale. African-American soldiers trained in northern camps are more likely to have high morale than African-American soldiers trained in southern camps. Soldiers with more education are more likely to resent being drafted than soldiers with low education. Origin of the Model The American Soldier (Continued) Although each hypothesis seems intuitively reasonable, each one is not supported by observation. Therefore, research scientists require a protocol for finding indications of true cause or no cause and rejecting false indications of cause or no cause. Rationale for the Elaboration Model Introduction Scientists must be very careful when investigating cause and effect to accurately identify the correct cause of an outcome.Relying upon misleading results:wastes money.influences the development of flawed technologies or policies.might result in harm to individuals or societies. Rationale for the Elaboration Model Experimental Control In the physical and life sciences, it is possible to physically control most variables.In the social sciences, one cannot physically control variables (e.g., one cannot “take out” religious beliefs from a person to isolate the effects of education on income, controlling for religious beliefs).Therefore, the social sciences rely more so than the life and physical sciences upon statistical control. Rationale for the Elaboration Model Aggregated Data Social science research often must rely upon aggregated data because of co.

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Write a 3–4-page evaluation of gender and education in the United States. This assessment asks you to consider the ways gender may concretely impact a major societal institution. By successfully completing this assessment, you will demonstrate your proficiency in the following course competencies and assessment criteria: Competency 1: Critically analyze issues related to gender and communication. Explain how K–12 schools can intentionally or unintentionally enforce gender roles. Describe how colleges and universities either support or disregard gender issues on campus. Competency 4: Identify effective leadership strategies that promote effective communication between men and women. Summarize the role of gender in the student–instructor dynamic. Describe how to reduce or eliminate gender bias in the classroom. Competency 5: Communicate effectively in a variety of formats. Communicate effectively and concisely using APA formatting. To deepen your understanding, you are encouraged to consider the questions below and discuss them with a fellow learner, a work associate, an interested friend, or a member of the business community. For the following questions, refer to the Resources (under the Internet Resources heading) for links to the Lieberman resource and the Barr resource: Do mothers and fathers generally differ in their interaction with children? If so, then how? Do today's fathers spend more time with their children than their own fathers spent with them? Do you think males and females are growing up at the same pace today as they did in previous eras? Many experts believe that education in the United States is gendered. That is, boys and girls are educated and treated differently throughout their academic careers. For this assessment, write an evaluation of gender and education in the United States. Address the following in your evaluation: Are boys and girls taught gender in our public school systems? Are female and male college students given equal support? What differences are there in how college students evaluate male and female instructors? How can gender bias be reduced or eliminated in the classroom? If you use Internet sources, they must be credible. For example, Wikipedia and YouTube are not credible resources. Additional Requirements Written communication: Written communication should be free of errors that detract from the overall message. APA formatting: Resources and in-text citations should be formatted according to APA (6th edition) style and formatting. Font and font size: Times New Roman, 12 point, double-spaced. Use Microsoft Word. Number of resources: 4 or more. Length: 3–4 pages. The document reviews key findings from research on gender. You may wish to review the document for an overview of these key concepts and ideas: We enter a gendered society at birth and continue to receive messages about gender throughout our lives. (Wood & Bodey, 2011, p. ...

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© 2016 Laureate Education, Inc. 1 of 3 SOCW 6301: Week 10 Assignment Guidelines Quantitative Article Review and Critique In approximately 7-10 pages (including title page and references), address the following questions. Title  After reading the entire article, do you think the title adequately describes the study? Does the title catch your attention? Please explain. Abstract  Does the abstract contain the recommended content (see “Abstract,” pp. 314, in Yegidis et al.)? How difficult do you think it is to summarize so much information in 150–250 words? Please explain. Introduction  Why did the authors conduct this study and write this article? What was the problem of interest or concern? Be specific. Use quotes and paraphrases with citations. What audience might be interested in this study?  Do you feel the problem is significant enough to warrant a journal article? Did you have a “so what” reaction? If so, why do you think it was accepted for publication? Please justify your position.  To what extent does the literature presented in the introduction help you understand the problem? How does the literature reviewed put the problem in context? Be specific.  Does the researcher indicate how this research is different from and/or similar to earlier ones reported in the literature? Summarize what this article intends to add to the knowledge base.  Do the authors state their research questions and/or hypotheses? What are the hypotheses or focused research questions? Methods  What specific quantitative method is used? How does a quantitative research design correspond with the research questions or hypotheses? Can you determine whether the design was appropriate? © 2016 Laureate Education, Inc. 2 of 3 To what extent can the design answer the research questions or address the stated hypotheses? Elaborate.  What were the variables under study? If relevant, identify the main dependent and independent variables. If not relevant, why are there no dependent and independent variables? What instruments or observations were used in the research? Explain why you do, or do not, think that the methods used to collect the data are described clearly enough to allow for replication. Be specific and please elaborate.  Explain whether or not information was provided concerning the reliability and validity of these instruments or observations. Was this information adequate? How does the presence or absence of information about reliability and validity affect your confidence in the quality of the study? What have the authors done to address or strengthen internal validity? Be specific. Sample  How were the participants recruited or selected for the study? What sampling strategy was used? Is the sample large enough to address the hypotheses and research questions? Did the author(s) offer any justification for the sample size? Are you satisfied with the in.

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of this status were better off marrying and starting families. There were also legal constraints to women’s entry into higher education and the paid labor force. So while the women in our example might have individually argued and pushed to go to college and have professional careers, the dreams of this group were constrained by powerful normative and legal structures that identified women’s place as being in the home. Figure 1.1 Unemployment Rates Among Young College Graduates in the United States, 1989–2014 SOURCE: Shierholz, Heidi, Natalie Sabadish, and Hilary Wething. (2012). “The Class of 2012: Labor market for young graduates remains grim.” Briefing paper 340. Figure G. Washington, DC: Economic Policy Institute. Reprinted with permission. Consider the relationship between the class structure and individual agency as another way of thinking about social mobility in U.S. society. If, for instance, a young man today whose parents are well educated and whose family is economically prosperous wishes to go to college and become a doctor, his position in the class structure (or the position of his family) is enabling—that is, it makes it likely that he will be able to make this choice and to realize it. If, however, a young man from a poor family with no college background dreams of being an engineer and wants to study in college, his position in the class structure is likely to be constraining: Not only does his family have insufficient economic means to pay for college, but he may also be studying in an underfunded or underperforming high school that cannot provide the advanced courses he needs to prepare for college. His lack of college role models may also be a factor. This does not mean that inevitably the first young man will go to college and the second will not; it does, however, suggest that probabilities favor the first college aspirant over the second. Put succinctly, in order to understand why some students go to college and others do not, sociologists would say that we cannot rely on individual choice or will (agency) alone— structures, whether subtly or quite obviously, exercise an influence on social behavior and outcomes. At the same time, we should not see structures as telling the whole story of social behavior, because history shows the power of human agency in making change even in the face of obstacles. Agency itself can transform structures (for example, think about the ways women’s historical activism has helped to transform limiting gender norms for women today). Sociologists weight both agency and structure and continue to seek to understand how the two interact and connect in affecting social behavior. For the most part, sociologists understand the relationship as reciprocal—that is, it goes in both directions, as structure affects agency and agency, in turn, can change the dimensions of a structure (Figure 1.2). Figure 1.2 Structure and Agency https://jigsaw.vitalsource.com/api/v0/books/.

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POLI_399_tutorial_4

1. POLI 399 – Research Methods Week Four Causal Modelling

6. Modelling Conservative Support in Canada X 1 Support for less government intervention Y 1 Support for Steven Harper + X 3 gender X 2 Region +/- +/-

7. Modelling Support for Private Health Care X 1 X 2 Duration of Canadian citizenship Education Y 1 Support for private health care + X 3 Income + X 4 Possession of “Canadian values” + – +

10. Modelling Support for Same Sex Marriage Y 1 Support for Same Sex Marriage X 1 Age - Initial Relationships A negative sign can be interpreted like this: As a person’s age increases their support for same sex marriage decreases. (Positive X Negative = Negative) Education Level X 2 +

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12. Modelling Support for Same Sex Marriage Y 1 Support for Same Sex Marriage X 3 Religiosity Age - X 1 - Education Level X 2 + A positive sign can be interpreted like this: The higher one’s level of education, the greater their support for same sex marriage. (Positive X Positive= Positive)

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14. Modeling Support for Same Sex Marriage Y 1 Support for Same Sex Marriage X 3 Religiosity Age - X 1 + Education Level X 2 - Religiosity acts as an intervening variable

15. Intervening Variable Model: Support for Same Sex Marriage Y 1 Support for Same Sex Marriage X 3 Religiosity Age - X 1 + Education Level X 2 - By including religiosity as an intervening variable, I am hypothesizing that religiosity is most important because young people, who are very religious are still less likely to support same-sex marriage than then young people who are not religious.

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Spuriousness: Ice Cream is linked with drowning, but this relationship with linked by a third variable. The relationship is not logical! Must justify what you are doing, and how you are measuring things.
Must be able to justify relationships!
Best researchers are those who know the literature, and come up with really interesting ways to measure. In your paper, must have clear links between what you are measuring, and what you have developed.
This is a linear relationship. As you move right, you are moving forward in time. There is always some underlying idea of geography in Canadian Election studies. Where you are reflects what you want from the government. Concentrated areas have a lot of power! There are different attitudes between men and women. Different experiences create different attitudes toward the government. R egion should be X1, and support X2. X3 should also before X1. You cannot control where you live, nor can you control your gender. You are born this way.
This model starts with how long you’ve been a Canadian Citizen. Not all educated people support private health care, w hich is why ‘Canadian Values’ is also considered in the model. Would have a very tough time operationalizing ‘Canadian Values’. (Not obviously ‘kickable’ as a concept.) Would need an index to measure this.
This will be very useful for doing our research project! Keep this close. Use all the obvious variables. Build it knowing that certain variables happen before other Variables. May want to include intervening variables. Can’t measure everything! Surveys are not exhaustive, there are limits to time and money.
Age, can mean 3 things. Actual age. As we age, we have more of a stake in what the government does. More set. Also, the generation: values and expectations come with the generation you grew up in. Certain things have changed dramatically over time. Can be a period affect, something dramatic have happened while you were growing up. E.g. 911 is ours. When people are more educated, they better they translate their values into actions. The type of education might bring a set of knowledge, and tolerance. Urbanization is a big part of this. (This is one of the theorized ways that education affects tolerance.) This is an argument of a Liberal Science education. Not all Education is the same!
Can try to measure this by measuring how often they actually attend services. There is a measure of this in the Canadian Election Study.
Must talk about how you operationalize such a concept.
This is when you have to be tough on yourself when you are making a causal model. Is there something you are not considering? This is one of the most damning criticisms of research. You probably will not have to draw this, but keep this in mind! Can be latent, and hard to see. Can be found by being critical of yourself. If you think the relationship is wrong, and you can prove it, this is really good research.
This will be important when you are working with WORD and drawing your causal models. These instructions also work on the new word.

POLI_399_tutorial_4

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