1. CONSULTING TOOLKIT
Narrowing to a Recommendation
Proving your Recommendation
© 2007-2012 IESIES Development Ltd. All Ltd. Reserved
© 2007-2012 Development Rights All Rights Reserved

2. Hypothesis trees help you to craft a bullet-proof
recommendation
Hypothesis Tree
WHAT?
•A “hypothesis tree” is used to decompose a solution logically to everything
that has to be proven for it to be the right answer
•It starts with the answer and breaks it down in a tree
WHY?
•It highlights weaknesses in your logic
•It focuses your work on the important things you have to prove
•It provides a logical structure for your storyline
•It prepares you for any challenge in Q&A
Use a hypothesis tree when you are
ready to focus on 1-2 potential solutions
© 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved

3. Use brainstorming to kickstart your hypothesis tree
Hypothesis Tree
HOW TO GENERATE A HYPOTHESIS TREE
1) Write down your recommendation in one sentence (must be
specific)
2) Quickly brainstorm everything that has to be true for that to
be the right solution
3) Organise and Group logically,
4) Create your tree, moving between general and specific
thinking. Phrase each level as precise STATEMENTS
5) Analyse each statement carefully to identify missing branches
to your tree
6) Try to poke holes in the logic. Are the statements Necessary
AND Sufficient? Are there any other possible conclusions?
© 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved

4. Hypothesis trees build from a specific answer by asking what
would have to be true for that answer to be correct Hypothesis Tree
Tertiary Hypothesis 1a
Secondary Test these with
Specific Hypothesis 1 Tertiary Hypothesis 1b experiments and
Statement of the analysis
answer to a Tertiary Hypothesis 1c
problem
Statement 2.a.i
Tertiary Hypothesis 2a Statement 2.a.ii
Statement 2.a.iii
Primary Secondary Tertiary Hypothesis 2b
Hypothesis Hypothesis 2
Tertiary Hypothesis 2c
Tertiary Hypothesis 3a
NB/. If even one
Secondary Tertiary Hypothesis 3b Hypothesis is
Hypothesis 3 wrong, the Primary
Hypothesis is
Tertiary Hypothesis 3c
wrong!
Ask yourself – what would have to be true?
Every one Necessary; Collectively Sufficient
© 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved

5. Hypothesis trees build from a specific answer by asking what
would have to be true for that answer to be correct Hypothesis Tree
HYPOTHESIS TREE FOR A PARTNERSHIP
There is a $y m
The opportunity needs these skills/assets
opportunity
We should partner
We are missing these skills/assets
to pursue this
opportunity Partnering is a better way to get these skills/assets
than alternatives (e.g. hiring, contract, JV or
We should acquisition)
partner with
Company X is one of the best partners
Company X to with the skills/ assets needed
capture the $y m Company X is the
opportunity best partner for us There is likely to be a better “fit” with Company X
(e.g. Chemistry, shared goals)
They will want to partner with us
We will be able to We have the skills to negotiate a deal
execute a deal
We can manage a partnership
successfully
© 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved

6. In addition to the specifics, there are some generic things to
prove in every recommendation
Hypothesis Tree
EVERY RECOMMENDATION HAS TO PROVE……
• We can implement the recommendation
• The recommendation is better than all alternatives
• There will be a financial return
• We should do it now
© 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved