Presentation at IT Decisions Conference on Scenario Planning and IT

1. SAMI Consulting, St Andrews Management Institute 6/29/2011 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1 Scenario Planning And IT Decision Making Dr Chris Yapp Chris_yapp@hotmail.co.uk IT Decisions Conference June 2011

2. SAMI Our offer To enhance the capability to anticipate To transform emergent thinking into strategy and implementation Consulting, executive education and research to deliver “robust decisions in uncertain times” “You can never plan the future by the past” Edmund Burke, 1729-1797 6/29/2011 2 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

4. June 11 4 Futures Thinking Contingency planning Scenarios Systems thinking Complexity theory Ethnographic Futures www.samiconsulting.co.uk

5. Imagine 2011 in 1981 Technology WWW Mobile Phones iPOD/PAD/Phone DAB DTT,HDTV,3DTV Wii,Xbox360,PS3 BUT AI?, VideoConf?, Concorde 2,Bullet trains, FTTH,Flying cars… What about Chelsea FC owned by a Russian BRICs Global Terrorism Climate Change Bollywood HIV/AIDS

6. My Experience over 30 years 20% will happen as consensus 15% will happen but slower than consensus 5% will happen faster than consensus 15% will be superceded before it happens 10% stalls/disappoints 20% just doesn’t happen 15% is off Radar 6/29/2011 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 6

7. Three Horizons

8. Repeating Problems Standards Wars WIIFM Infrastructure lags Long-term capacity developments June 11 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 8

9. What type of future? Desired ( my plan) Desirable ( Plan B) Plausible ( time to rethink?) Consensus ( my contrarian plan) Unpleasant ( don’t want to go there) June 11 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 9

10. Beware… Modern Myths This time it’s different… Putting New in front of everything.. Everything has a history Revolution or cohort effects Roadblocks (IPv6?)

11. Unpicking Assumptions “The problem is that companies just don’t get Web 2.0. The benefits are out there and the tools are cheap. Planning is expensive and wasteful. Get on with realising the benefits” A Social Media guru While at the same time... Predicted 100% compound growth for 5 years All existing services would still be there and free Values of today’s teenagers would still be their values in 10 years Governments wouldn’t regulate... June 11 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 11

12. 1066 and All That June 11 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 12 Roundheads Right Cavaliers Wrong Romantic Repulsive

13. The Futurists Dilemma June 11 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 13 ? Focussed Theme High Credibility Broad Vision Low Credibility Right Wrong

14. Dimensions of the Current Challenge June 11 14 structural Economic Change Market Step Change Niche Portfolio Reactive Proactive Strategic Response Sitting Tight Mopping up cyclical www.samiconsulting.co.uk

15. Dynamics of the Current Challenge June 11 15 New Entrant structural Economic Change Market Step Change Niche Portfolio Reactive Proactive Strategic Response Sitting Tight Mopping up cyclical www.samiconsulting.co.uk

16. June 11 16 Problem Types Do we know where We are going? YES Best practice Scaling practice TASK: Operational Management TASK: Process Development NO YES Do we know How to get There? TASK: Direction Setting TASK: Concept Creation Next practice Emerging practice NO After Eddie Obeng www.samiconsulting.co.uk

17. Whose Problem? June 11 17 High Political System Think Tank Complexity Consultant Wisdom of The Crowds Academic /Expert Low Low High Uncertainty www.samiconsulting.co.uk

18. What value? June 11 18 High Political System Think Tank Track record Complexity Ideas Consultant Wisdom of The Crowds Knowledge Academic /Expert Low Low High Uncertainty www.samiconsulting.co.uk

19. During Step Change? June 11 19 High Political System Consultancy squeezed as limited track record Think Tank Complexity Consultant Wisdom of The Crowds Academic /Expert Low Low High Uncertainty www.samiconsulting.co.uk

20. Timing “In the Future blind People will Be able to drive cars” June 11 20 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

21. Results Probability 0.9 with some 0.2 Today with Resources: 1-3 years In practice: 3-10 years In reality: 10-100 years June 11 21 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

22. Why do we get it wrong? Today!!! Prisoners of Language Timing Unintended consequences Sources of Innovation Ask the wrong question/people? Culture Events June 11 22 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

23. Not understanding today… Societies taboos Bubbles Poor data for emerging trends Examples Police Paedophiles Education International/global interconnectivity June 11 23 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

24. Timing Inevitability-Predictability Risk and uncertainty Unforseen barriers Social factors Long-term skill developments June 11 24 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

25. Sources of Innovation Manufacturer Active Process User Active process Source: Eric Von Hippel, MIT

26. Innovation Open Innovation has a 200 year history Innovation with lead users preceded the internet Professional solve their own problems Big shift in computing is that consumers not industry in the driving seat.

27. A Rose by any other name.. Bouba Kiki June 11 27 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

28. Learning from the edge:Synesthesia June 11 28 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

29. Prisoners of Language 1,000,000 cars People will always want shoes Classroom of the Future Library with no books 5 Computers June 11 29 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

30. June 11 30 Who do you ask? “ What do you teach a child at 5 years old So that they will be IT Literate at 20? www.samiconsulting.co.uk

31. June 11 31 Core to the problem.. The different disciplines involved The hardware doesn’t exist The software hasn’t been written Some of the key companies haven’t yet been formed So who do you ask? www.samiconsulting.co.uk

32. June 11 32 Organisational culture Specialists and generalists Personal credibility Tolerance of uncertainty Story telling Leadership www.samiconsulting.co.uk

33. Events 9/11 BSE Coalition Government Middle East: Tunisia, Egypt...... BLACK SWANS June 11 33 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

34. Uncertainties Today Web 2.0 bubble? IPv4 to IPv6 transition Sustainability of Free/Freemium.. Impact of Regulation, e.g. EU Privacy, security Business models? Interdependencies... IPR regimes Everything has a history...? Demographics.... Energy Security Public/Private Clouds June 11 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 34

35. Overoptimism or hype? www.samiconsulting.co.uk

36. Hofstadter’s Law It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law 29/06/2011 36 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

37. Thank You! Any Questions? My BCS blog: http://www.bcs.org/content/conBlog/20 Twitter: @chris_yapp June 11 37 www.samiconsulting.co.uk