Indaba's Webtech Research report covering Online Recruitment space. This report will help Portfolio Managers make investment decisions regarding the online recruitment sector.
* We are structurally positive on the outlook of social-passive recruitment models.
* We expect the businesses to outperform with the elements of a) user engagement; b) client retention; c) focused target market
The companies we cover in depth include LinkedIn (LNKD), Monster (MWW), Dice Holdings (DHX). We have initiated coverage with Buy ratings on each of these because of their evident strong points.
2. Disclaimer
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WebTech is not a legal, tax, or accounting adviser and makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of any data
or information gathered or prepared by WebTech hereunder. Your company should therefore consult with its own tax,
accounting, legal, or other advisers and make its own independent analysis and investigation of any proposed transaction, as
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This document is not intended to provide the sole basis for any evaluation by you of the transaction, security, or instrument
described herein and you agree that the merits or suitability of any such transaction, security, or instrument to your particular
situation will be independently determined by you including consideration of the legal, tax, accounting, regulatory, financial,
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Commission, FINRA, Financial Services Authority, and/or any other regulatory body having proper jurisdiction) to exercise any
judgment on your behalf as to the merits or suitability of any transaction, security, or instrument.
-‐ 2 -‐
3. WebTech Research Overview
WebTech Research produces a research product tailored specifically for investors
searching for an investment edge in emerging web-‐based technology companies.
We are distributed exclusively through Indaba Global Research.
We enable clients to:
EFFICIENTLY NAVIGATE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNTIES IN WEB-‐BASED TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES
Concise Communication: Large amounts of data distilled to the most important pieces of
information.
Actionable Items: Investment ideas with catalysts for realization of our thesis. We know our clients
INVEST WITH CONFIDENCE
No Conflict of Interest: Our only clients are investment firms.
companies we cover
Buy Side Experience: Our ideas are generated by investors who cut their teeth with hedge fund
investment teams and remain active investors
-‐ 3 -‐
4. Investment Universe + Report Focus
Our Universe of
Web Technology
ADVERTISING
SEARCH MERCHANTS
E-COMMERCE
Platforms
MEASUREMENT CONTENT
Blogging
AGENCY /
DIVERSIFIED TRAVEL
Recruitment
GOVERNMENT
POLICY Networking
SOFTWARE &
IDENTITY SERVICES Gaming Content Sharing
LOCATION CONTENT
SERVICES DELIVERY
SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
DATA
CENTERS
PLATFORMS
Focus of this Report
Online Recruitment Value Chain
Consumers Online Recruitment /
Enterprises
Networking Companies
Online Networking: LinkedIn,
Viadeo, Xing, Chatter
Worldwide labor force = 3.3B; Traditional: Monster, Dice, 200,000 enterprise level
Professionals = 640mm Career-‐builder, etc. companies
-‐ 4 -‐
5. _____
1. Passive recruitment refers to the recruitment of candidates who are satisfied in their current positions and are not actively seeking new opportunities -‐ 5 -‐
6. Global Talent Acquisition Opportunity
The growth of the talent acquisition market will be largely contingent on a continued
recovery in the global economy.
Talent Acquisition Internet Underpenetrated Asian
Opportunity ($B)
USD B Penetration
Penetration economies will grow faster
than their developed peers
120.0 100.0%
86.0% 86.5% 87.0% 88.0% CAGR -‐ 9.4%
85.5% 90.0%
100.0
80.0%
CAGR -‐ 4.6%
70.0%
80.0
60.0%
60.0 50.0%
38.0%
35.0% 40.0%
30.0% 32.0%
40.0 28.0%
30.0% CAGR -‐ 4.8%
20.0%
20.0
10.0%
0.0 0.0%
2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
EMEA America
Asia/Pacific Internet Penetration -‐ US
Internet Penetration -‐ International
_____
Source: IDC, April 2011 -‐ 6 -‐
7. US Recruitment: Spending by Channel
US businesses will continue to use multiple channels to recruit talent
a winner-‐takes-‐all scenario is unlikely.
2010
2010 2015E
2015F
21% 7% 3%
10%
Recruitment spending
to remain fragmented
42%
15% 15% 43%
10%
3% 9% 23%
2010
Total Spending: $42B ~5.5% CAGR Total Spending: $55B
Staffing Services Executive Search Services
Online Recruiting Classfied Ads
Outplacement Services Others
_____
Source: IDC, April 2011 -‐ 7 -‐
8. US Recruitment: Positions Filled by Channel
Passive recruitment even in its nascent stage is the source for 10% of all
positions filled in the US.
Job Portals; 19%
Internal Candidates;
19%
Active
Candidates
We expect active
candidates to increasingly
Social Media; 1%
profiles on professional
Other Sources; 3% networking sites, driving
professional network
share gains.
Print/Newspapers; 3% Employee Referrals;
16%
University; 7%
Agencies; 9%
Company Website;
13%
Passive
Professional Candidates
Networking Sites;
10%
_____
For 2011. Source: Bersin & Associates, 2011
Passive candidates are those who are satisfied in their current positions and are not actively seeking new opportunities -‐ 8 -‐
9. US Recruitment: Macro Analysis
Revenues of the top 10 US recruitment companies(1) typically lag changes in GDP and
lead changes in unemployment.
USD B Revenue vs. Real GDP Rate
9.0 8.0%
Global Credit Crisis
8.0 6.0%
7.0 4.0%
6.0 2.0%
5.0 0.0%
4.0 (2.0%)
3.0 (4.0%)
2.0 (6.0%)
1.0 (8.0%)
0.0 (10.0%)
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q4 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Revenues of Top 10 US Recruiting Companies Real GDP -‐ %
USD B Revenue vs. Unemployment Rate
9.0 Global Credit Crisis 11.0%
8.0 10.0%
7.0 9.0%
6.0 8.0%
5.0
7.0%
4.0
3.0 6.0%
2.0 5.0%
1.0 4.0%
0.0 3.0%
Q1 07
Q1 08
Q1 09
Q4 09
Q1 10
Q4 10
Q4 11
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q2 10
Q3 10
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Revenues of Top 10 US Recruiting Companies US Unemployment Rate -‐%
_____
Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
1) Revenue of top 10 companies (by market capitalization) in recruitment industry operating in the US: MWW, MAN, KELYA, KFRC, HSII, HHGP, CRRS, CTP, LNKD and DHX -‐ 9 -‐
10. Consumer Media Consumption
Increased time spent online provides a significant opportunity for social recruitment
firms to drive both increased usership and engagement.
Hours/Week
121.0%
16.0 5.0%
14.0
12.0
10.0
(15.0%)
8.0
6.0
(26.0%)
(18.0%)
4.0
2.0
0.0
Newspapers Magazines Radio TV Internet
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
_____
Growth rates are absolute (not compounded)
Source: North American Technographics Benchmark Surveys, 2005 to 2010 -‐ 10 -‐
11. Competitive Analysis
Page Views / Unique Users Subscribers
Brand Description Pricing
Unique User (mm) (mm)
LNKD Recruiter: $8,200.00/ year/seat
Social professional network
Talent Finder: $99.95/ month
targeting both active and 27.53 92.0 >150.0
LNKD Jobs: $1,200.00 /year
passive job seekers
Job Seeker: $19.95 -‐ $49.95/month
Power Resume Search: $13,000.00/year
Traditional online job
Standard Search Product: $10,000.00/
posting sites with presence Job Posting: >1.0
year NA 46.0
in 55 countries for over a Resumes: >150 (2008)
Career Ad Network: ~$135.00
decade
$250.00/Job posting
Provides niche sites
Dice Job Posting Express: 495.00/month
targeting highly skilled NA 5.4 Job Posting: ~0.13
Resume Access Express: $995.00/month
employment
Private horizontal job site
Resume database: $6000.00/year Job Postings: 1.0
like Monster. Based in NA 24.0
Single job posting: $419.00/month Resumes: 40.0
Chicago, USA
Listed in Germany, 2nd
Xing largest professional Premium Membership: starting @ 5.55
33.60 7.0 >11.4
network with 88.0% of ($7.50)/month
users in Europe
_____
Source: Company websites, Annual Reports, comScore, Google
-‐ 11 -‐
12. Competitive Analysis [CONTINUED]
Page Views / Unique Users Subscribers
Brand Description Pricing
Unique User (mm) (mm)
Based in Paris, a private
Most Expensive Plan: $3.95 (3 months
professional networking NA 5.0 40.0
subscription)
website
Private company with Basic collaboration plus added
Access of 0.07 (June
platform to form a customization and CRM features for $15.00 NA 2.0
2010)
professional community /user/month
Operates as a private online
search engine for jobs in US, NA NA 50.0 NA
Canada and UK
A startup company using
Facebook Apps to build 25 Job Postings: $250.00/ month 14.40 1.0 3.0
professional network
_____
Source: Company websites, Annual Reports, comScore, Google
-‐ 12 -‐
14. Online Recruitment Comps
Takeaways Key Statistics
Company LinkedIn Monster Dice Holdings
Comps Selection Ticker LNKD MWW DHX
Share Price $100.57 $9.49 $9.53
o Considering the changing business dynamics in Market Cap $9,946.4 $1,168.2 $621.6
Less: Cash $577.5 $250.3 $55.2
recruitment, we have focused on both Plus: Debt -‐ $188.8 $15.0
Enterprise Value $9,368.9 $1,106.7 $581.3
emerging professional networking (LNKD) and
traditional online portals (MWW, DHX) Revenue
2013E $1,209.0 $1,028.0 $219.4
Key Metric(s) Y/Y Growth 38.3% 4.9% 11.5%
2012E $874.2 $979.9 $196.7
Y/Y Growth 67.4% (5.8%) 9.8%
o Subscribers + Corporate Customers/Bookings: LTM $522.2 $1,040.1 $179.1
2013 EV/Sales 7.75x 1.08x 2.65x
Can company further penetrate addressable 2012 EV/Sales 10.72x 1.13x 2.96x
LTM EV/Sales 17.94x 1.06x 3.25x
relevant vertical/segments to attract
Key Growth Metrics (1) Corporate Subs Bookings Customer Pckgs
incremental corporate clients? 2013E 74.8% (1.9%) 8.6%
2012E 39.3% 5.3% 3.5%
Can company attract additional subs / users
EBITDA
to generate incremental revenue from 2013E $293.4 $180.1 $90.7
Y/Y Growth 72.5% 16.2% 15.7%
advertising? 2012E $170.1 $155.0 $78.4
Y/Y Growth 146.7% 11.6% 7.6%
LTM $68.9 $138.9 $72.9
Market Valuation 2013 EV/EBITDA 31.9x 6.1x 6.4x
2012 EV/EBITDA 55.1x 7.1x 7.4x
o Based on 2013E P/E, we believe LNKD trades at LTM EV/EBITDA 135.9x 8.0x 8.0x
a premium to its peers due to a) focus on social EPS
2013E $0.58 $0.45 $0.69
relevancy in a professional medium; and b) high Y/Y Growth 248.8% 94.8% 20.0%
2012E $0.17 $0.23 $0.57
growth opportunity. Premium of MWW over Y/Y Growth 50.9% (46.0%) 17.1%
LTM $0.11 $0.43 $0.49
DHX is primarily on account of recent 2013 P/E 173.7x 21.0x 13.8x
acquisition rumors 2012 P/E 605.8x 40.9x 16.6x
LTM P/E 914.3x 22.1x 19.4x
_____
Source: Company Filings, Company Press Releases, Bloomberg Estimates and WebTech Research Estimates
(1) Key Growth Metrics: a) corporate subscribers for LNKD; b) bookings for MWW; and C) customer packages for DHX -‐ 14 -‐
15. Stock Price Analysis
Stock performance follows trends in customer acquisition and bookings.
11/02/10: DHX Q3 10 beat, 1/28/11: MWW Q4 10 miss, 5/19/11: Listing of LNKD, 10/28/11: MWW Q3 11 beat, 2/02/12: DHX Q1 12 weak
guidance for Q4 exceeds guidance for Q1 11 below +109.4% from IPO price of and authorizes $250mm guidance. Bookings from eFC to
expectations expectations $45.00 buyback fall by 6-‐
12/10/10: DHX increased stock 2/01/11: DHX Q4 10 beat, 8/30/11: top 3 01/26/12: MWW Q4 11 miss, 2/10/12: LNKD
13.00 sale to 12mm (19.5% of float) guidance for Q1 11 exceeds executives reported buying a guidance for Q1 12 below
from 10mm @ $10.75/share expectations combined 87K shares expectations expectations
3/6/12: MWW hired
Stone Key Partners
11.00 and BOAML in
pursuit of strategic
alternatives
9.00
7.00
5.00
10/29/10: MWW Q3 10 beat,
3.00 guidance for Q4 10 exceeds
6/28/11: MWW announced the
launch of BeKnown
expectations
1.00
Oct-‐10 Dec-‐1 0 Feb-‐11 Apr-‐11 Jun-‐11 Aug-‐11 Oct-‐11 Dec-‐1 1 Feb-‐12
MWW UN Equity DHX US Equity LNKD US Equity
_____
Source: Bloomberg
Note: Stock prices have been benchmarked in multiples of $5.00 for comparison purposes -‐ 15 -‐
16. LinkedIn [NASDAQ: LNKD]
LNKD, with its disruptive recruitment model and focus on innovation/product
development, has seen shares rise over 100% from
KEY SEGMENTS
Hiring Solutions: Recruitment products for enterprises (corporate solutions, LinkedIn Jobs, subscriptions for recruiters/hirers
& job seekers). ~50% of revenues ($261mm in FY 11; +156% Y/Y). 9,200+ corporate customers
Marketing Solutions: Targeting solutions for direct marketers and advertisers (self-‐serve ads, display ads, social ads, and lead
generation). ~30% of revenues ($156mm in FY 11; +97% Y/Y)
Premium Subscriptions: For general professional identify management (enhanced search/communication capabilities, à la
carte premium features). ~20% of revenues ($105mm in FY 11; +70% Y/Y)
CONSENSUS CONCERNS
Lower User Engagement vs. Facebook [FB] will Impact Revenue from Marketing Solutions: Based on average time
spent/month (6.25 hours for FB vs. 0.25 hours for LNKD) and page views/user (655 for FB vs. 28 for LNKD)
Our view: We do not share this concern. Time spent and page views are not comparable given the differing nature of
each platform. For LNKD, we are more focused on user engagement momentum, evidenced by page view growth
(+63% Y/Y) outpacing unique visitor growth (+61% Y/Y) following the launch of LinkedIn Today, Signal and Platforms
Ability to Expand EBITDA Margins: Questions persist around ability to expand EBITDA margin from ~19% in FY 11
Our view: We do not share the concern. Favorable gross margin trends, combined with successful sales & marketing
investment, gives LNKD management increasing control over margin trends. That said, we believe SG&A and product
development investment is justified given the addressable market opportunity (penetration at ~4.6% out of ~200K
corporates)
-‐ 16 -‐
17. LinkedIn [CONTINUED]
Price Target = $134.03 (33.3% appreciation). Accumulate under $89.76.
WHAT WE LIKE
Market Leader: 13x larger than the closest pure professional network Xing. Used by 82 of Fortune 100 companies
Growth Potential Recruitment: Low penetration rate (<1% for hiring and ~3% for premium subscriptions) offers room
for substantial growth in addressable market of ~$27B global recruitment and talent acquisition
User Engagement Upside Advertisement: Social element to platform gives it a significant opportunity to
penetrate ~$25B addressable advertising compared to other traditional online recruitment companies
WEBTECH RESEARCH RECOMMENDATION = BUY under $89.76, aggressively under $85.73
Price Target: We arrive at a price target of $134.03 based on an average of our DCF and subscriber growth models. For
our DCF we assume corporate client market share grows to 40% (from 4.6%) and EBITDA margin grow to 32.5%
(from ~19%) by FY 20, with a terminal year growth rate of 2.5%. In our subscriber growth model, we assume LNKD exits
2013E with 276mm subscribers (up from 145mm; adding 2 subs every second, per mgmt comments in the last
conference call) and an ARPU of $6.90 (up from LTM ARPU of $4.19), and a 65x P/E multiple (consistent with our view on
subscribers and EPS growth rates)
Price Support: We recommend closely watching $75-‐76 for downside support (just below 100 DMA)
Short: The risk reward ratio for a short trade becomes favorable (at >4.5x) above $118.96. We would consider a
fundamental short position if the long-‐thesis is -‐ (if shares rise above $147.43)
Stock a) positive employment numbers; b) Q1 earnings (5/9/12); c) comScore data releases; d) sale
of any part of ~48mm shares owned by CEO, Greylock or Sequoia
-‐ 17 -‐
18. Monster Worldwide [NASDAQ: MWW]
MWW, a traditional online recruitment model has been impacted by sluggish job
recovery and the emergence of LNKD and other forms of social recruitment.
KEY SEGMENTS
Careers: Connects employers with job seekers online through searchable job postings and career management
resources. Over 200,000 clients
o North America: ~47% of revenues ($485mm in FY 11; +15% Y/Y). Operating margin of ~15%
o International: ~43% of revenues ($445mm in FY 11; +23% Y/Y). Operating margin of~8%
Internet Advertising & Fees: Provides employers, educators, and marketers with media driven solutions. ~10% of
revenues ($110mm in FY 11; -‐16% Y/Y). Operating margin ~5%
CONSENSUS CONCERNS
Volatility in International Bookings + Soft Bookings Outlook:
Our view: We share this concern, as bookings in Germany (9% of revenue) grew 53% in 9M 11, but then
dropped to 6% in Q4 11 (making comps tougher). Additionally, management guided Q1 12 bookings to
decline of 6 10%, after flat bookings growth in Q4 11. We do not see a similar trend with competition
Competitive Threats: MWW has been unable to combat share gains from professional networking platforms (LNKD)
and or vertically focused job posting sites (DHX)
Our view: We share this concern, as networking elements and pricing advantage (LNKD recruiter
product ~$8K/user vs. MWW at ~$13K/user) will fuel share gains. Additionally, DHX continues to build its
presence in technology, energy and financial services verticles, at the expense of MWW and Careerbuilder
-‐ 18 -‐
19. Monster Worldwide [CONTINUED]
Price Target = $11.50 (21.2% appreciation). Accumulate under $9.00.
WHAT WE LIKE
Leadership in International Markets: Maintains a #1 or #2 position in most of key international regions (~55 total)
New Product Developments: MWW invested in new products such as Power Resume Search, BeKnown, Career
Ad Network and SeeMore through the down cycle, ensuring the participation in the next up cycle. These products
should improve the EPS quality by driving stickier and more predictable annuity like earnings
Incremental Margins: revenue leverage to an improved job environment will be complimented by 50%
incremental margins. Every 10% swing in bookings is worth ~$0.06 to EPS
WEBTECH RESEARCH RECOMMENDATION = BUY under $9.00, aggressively under $8.78
Price Target: We arrive at a price target of $11.50 based on average of a) 2013E EBITDA exit multiple of 5x (vs.
5.8x LTM multiple) and b) average of acquisition rumors at $11.00 15.00. We assume bookings will
grow conservatively at ~2.4% in 2012E (based on management estimates for a decline of -‐6 to -‐10% in Q1 12 and
our estimate of a bookings pickup going forward) and ~10.0% in 2013E. We also estimate that incremental
revenue in 2012/13 flows to EBITDA at a 40% margin (vs. management estimates of 50%)
Price Support: Four insiders increased their stake in August 11 accumulating stock around $8.17
Short: The risk reward ratio for a short trade becomes favorable (at >4.5x) above $10.89. We would
consider a fundamental short position if the long-‐thesis is -‐ (if shares rise above $12.65)
Stock a) incremental information regarding strategic discussions; b) Q1 earnings (4/27/12);
c) share repurchase program; d) positive US employment numbers; e) negative EMEA employment numbers
-‐ 19 -‐
20. Dice Holdings [NASDAQ: DHX]
DHX, a vertically focused and niche recruitment service provider has been impacted by
uncertainty in the financial sector. We believe these concerns are overblown.
KEY SEGMENTS
Technology & Clearance: Operates Dice.com & ClearanceJobs.com. ~64% of revenues ($115mm in FY 11; +30%
Y/Y). Unique visitors: >2.7mm. 90K job postings
Finance: Operates eFinancialCareers.com. ~25% of revenues ($45mm in FY 11; +33% Y/Y). Unique visitors: 1.5mm.
8.5K job postings
Energy: Operates RigZone and WorldwideWorker. ~9% of revenues ($15mm in FY 11; +252% Y/Y). Unique visitors:
0.8mm. 8.1K job postings
CONSENSUS CONCERNS
Weak EBITDA Guidance: Expected EBITDA margin of 41% in FY 12 (43% in FY 11) as project development costs
increased by 50%
Our view: We do not share this concern, as DHX has been conservative with respect to EBITDA guidance
historically (exceeding by ~200-‐400 bps over the last three years)
Soft Bookings in Finance: Higher-‐than-‐expected slowdown in finance segment (management guidance of -‐12% in FY
12)
Our view: We partially share this concern. That said, note that this guidance was given during a period of
heightened concern regarding passage of Greece austerity measures. Additionally, we have seen improving
hiring trends in the finance vertical
-‐ 20 -‐
21. Dice Holdings [CONTINUED]
Price Target = $13.42 (40.9% appreciation). Accumulate under $9.84.
WHAT WE LIKE
Vertically Focused, Niche Player: Sector focus, via distinct web properties, provides a unique business proposition
to enterprises relative to other generalist players and also drives brand awareness.
Strong Cash Flows: Consistent FCF generation (avg of 27.5% from 09-‐ 11) facilitated by a) high client retention and
b) nimble business model (subscription-‐based revenue model enables management to quickly identify business
trend reversals via deferred revenue trends, allowing for the adjustments to variable cost structure)
Productivity/Efficiency: $0.5mm of revenue/employee compared to ~$0.2mm for MWW
WEBTECH RESEARCH RECOMMENDATION = BUY under $9.84, aggressively under $9.51
Price Target: We arrive at a price target of $13.42 based on our DCF model (given the stable FCF generation). We
assume revenue growth of 15-‐20% for tech and clearance (customer growth of 10-‐15% and ARPU growth of 3-‐5%)
and conservative growth of 5% for finance and energy from 2013E-‐ 16E. We also conservatively estimate EBITDA
margins to contract to ~37% (vs. 12 month rolling margin of ~43%)
Price Support: Average price of $8.64 based on the existing repurchase program of $30mm
Short: The risk reward ratio for a short trade becomes favorable (at >4.5x) above $12.55. We would consider
a fundamental short position if the long-‐thesis is -‐ (if shares rise above $14.77)
a) Q1 earnings (4/27/11); b) positive US employment numbers; and c) increase in share
repurchase program
-‐ 21 -‐
22.
For questions and comments, please contact:
Brian Murphy
Indaba Global Research
617-‐571-‐1550
brian@indabaglobalresearch.com
www.indabaglobalresearch.com
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-‐ 22 -‐