Presentation on German Elections Results 2009 by Rainer Heufers

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Diskusi Pemilu Jerman 2009 FNS Indonesia Jakarta 06 October 2009

German Parliamentary Elections 27 September 2009 Rainer Heufers 6 October 2009

Who was competing? Purple Black Red Yellow Green

Analysis by profession (in %) 5 (+1) 12 (+4) 13 (+5) 29 (-7) 39 (-3) Pensioners 19 (+5) 7 13 (+4) 25 (-5) 32 (-6) Officials 14 (+2) 6 27 (+8) 14 (-7) 33 (-9) Self-employed 14 (+3) 11 (+3) 16 (+6) 20 (-16) 32 Employed 7 (+2) 18 (+6) 13 (+5) 24 (-13) 28 (-2) Workers 10 (+3) 25 (+2) 11 (+3) 22 (-8) 21 (-2) Unemployed Gruene Linke FDP SPD CDU

Analysis by age (in %) 5 (+1) 10 (+3) 13 (+4) 27 (-7) 42 (-1) 60+ 12 (+4) 15 (+4) 15 (+6) 24 (-10) 30 (-4) 45 – 59 15 (+4) 12 (+3) 16 (+7) 21 (-13) 30 (-2) 35 – 44 14 (+4) 12 (+3) 18 (+6) 17 (-16) 28 (-1) 25 – 34 16 (+5) 12 (+3) 15 (+5) 17 (-21) 25 (-1) 18 – 24 Gruene Linke FDP SPD CDU

Politik Aliran? 12 (+3) 23 (+3) 14 (+4) 21 (-15) 22 (+1) No confession 9 (+2) 6 (+2) 16 (+6) 19 (-9) 45 (-4) Catholic 12 (+4) 9 (+3) 15 (+5) 29 (-11) 31 (-2) Protestant Gruene Linke FDP SPD CDU

Reasons for Voting Decisions 18 15 13 (+0) 24 Long-term sympathy 21 12 20 (+8) 22 32 (+16) Candidates 55 74 73 62 (-10) 49 40 (-18) Competence Total Gruene Linke FDP SPD CDU

Gains and losses (in %) - 350,000 - 110,000 - 2.1 million - 1.2 million Mobilisation of voters + 210,000 + 60,000 - 490,000 - 600,000 Generational + 860.000 + 1.3 million + 1.6 million + 870,000 From other parties - 130,000 - 3.7 million - 1.2 million To other parties Gruene Linke FDP SPD CDU

Coalition Building on the National Level “ Jamaica-coalition” “ Traffic light coalition” Black Red “Grand Coalition” (1966-69, 2005-09) Black Yellow (1961-66, 1982-1998) (currently negotiated) Red Green (1998-2005) “ Social liberal” (1969-1982) Red Red Green

Negotiations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

7 working groups discussing 2 ministerial portfolios each ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Issues Highly contentious Problematic Less problematic Easy Home Affairs / Internal Security Public health Taxes Stimulus packages Nuclear power Agriculture Unemployment welfare benefits Labour policies Foreign policy Security Defence

1 Chancellor 15 Ministers ,[object Object],[object Object]

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Presentation on German Elections Results 2009 by Rainer Heufers

1. Diskusi Pemilu Jerman 2009 FNS Indonesia Jakarta 06 October 2009

2. German Parliamentary Elections 27 September 2009 Rainer Heufers 6 October 2009

3. Who was competing? Purple Black Red Yellow Green

4. Election Results

5. Back to 1949…?

6. Voter turnout reduced

7. Geographic distribution

8. West and East Germany

9. West and East Germany

10. Analysis by profession (in %) 5 (+1) 12 (+4) 13 (+5) 29 (-7) 39 (-3) Pensioners 19 (+5) 7 13 (+4) 25 (-5) 32 (-6) Officials 14 (+2) 6 27 (+8) 14 (-7) 33 (-9) Self-employed 14 (+3) 11 (+3) 16 (+6) 20 (-16) 32 Employed 7 (+2) 18 (+6) 13 (+5) 24 (-13) 28 (-2) Workers 10 (+3) 25 (+2) 11 (+3) 22 (-8) 21 (-2) Unemployed Gruene Linke FDP SPD CDU

11. Analysis by age (in %) 5 (+1) 10 (+3) 13 (+4) 27 (-7) 42 (-1) 60+ 12 (+4) 15 (+4) 15 (+6) 24 (-10) 30 (-4) 45 – 59 15 (+4) 12 (+3) 16 (+7) 21 (-13) 30 (-2) 35 – 44 14 (+4) 12 (+3) 18 (+6) 17 (-16) 28 (-1) 25 – 34 16 (+5) 12 (+3) 15 (+5) 17 (-21) 25 (-1) 18 – 24 Gruene Linke FDP SPD CDU

12. Politik Aliran? 12 (+3) 23 (+3) 14 (+4) 21 (-15) 22 (+1) No confession 9 (+2) 6 (+2) 16 (+6) 19 (-9) 45 (-4) Catholic 12 (+4) 9 (+3) 15 (+5) 29 (-11) 31 (-2) Protestant Gruene Linke FDP SPD CDU

13. Reasons for Voting Decisions 18 15 13 (+0) 24 Long-term sympathy 21 12 20 (+8) 22 32 (+16) Candidates 55 74 73 62 (-10) 49 40 (-18) Competence Total Gruene Linke FDP SPD CDU

14. Gains and losses (in %) - 350,000 - 110,000 - 2.1 million - 1.2 million Mobilisation of voters + 210,000 + 60,000 - 490,000 - 600,000 Generational + 860.000 + 1.3 million + 1.6 million + 870,000 From other parties - 130,000 - 3.7 million - 1.2 million To other parties Gruene Linke FDP SPD CDU

15. Seat allocation

16. Coalition Building on the National Level “ Jamaica-coalition” “ Traffic light coalition” Black Red “Grand Coalition” (1966-69, 2005-09) Black Yellow (1961-66, 1982-1998) (currently negotiated) Red Green (1998-2005) “ Social liberal” (1969-1982) Red Red Green

17. Negotiating a Coalition

18.

19.

20. Issues Highly contentious Problematic Less problematic Easy Home Affairs / Internal Security Public health Taxes Stimulus packages Nuclear power Agriculture Unemployment welfare benefits Labour policies Foreign policy Security Defence

21.

22. Diskusi Pemilu Jerman 2009 FNS Indonesia Jakarta 06 October 2009

Presentation on German Elections Results 2009 by Rainer Heufers

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