During the latest Brussels Briefing, organised by The Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation (CTA) in September, Sonja Vermeulen held a presentation on Smallholder agriculture under climate change: Challenges and outlook.

1. Climate change, agriculture and food security: proven approaches and new investments, Policy Briefing 29, Brussels, 27 September 2012
Smallholder agriculture
under climate change:
challenges and outlook
Sonja Vermeulen, Head of Research
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change,
Agriculture and Food Security

2. Impacts

3. 4 degrees by 2100 is likely

4. Impacts 1: Long-term trends
in temperature and rainfall
Length
of
growing
period
(%)
>20%
loss
To 2090, taking 14 5-­‐20%
loss
climate models No
change
5-­‐20%
gain
>20%
gain
Four degree rise
Thornton
et
al.
2010

5. Impacts 2: Increasing
frequency and intensity of
extreme weather events
Pulwaty 2010

6. Impacts 3: Major transitions in
ecosystems and livelihoods
2050 compared with 2005 in A1B scenario
Cheung et al 2010

7. Impacts 4: Poorest at risk
By 2050, severe
childhood
stunting up by
23% in central
Africa and 62%
in South Asia
(uses IFPRI IMPACT
model + socio-
economic models)
Lloyd
et
al.
2011
Environmental
Health
PerspecEves

8. Becoming
“climate smart”

9. GHG CO2-eq tonne
Food per capita
security
25
20
15
10
5
0
US Malawi
Adaptation Ecological
footprint
“Climate-smart agriculture” means building resilience,
balancing trade-offs, suiting the context

10. Adaptation

11. Adaptive capacity
Technology
Income & assets Infrastructure
Knowledge &
Governance skills Access
& to
institutions information
Social capital

12. Key adaptation strategies
Ø Incremental adaptation to progressive
climate change
• Closing yield gaps (i.e. sustainable intensification)
• Raising the bar – technologies & policies for 2030s
Ø Climate risk management
• Technologies (e.g. flood control)
• Institutions (e.g. index-based insurance)
• Climate information systems (e.g. seasonal forecasts)
Ø Transformative adaptation
• Changing production systems
• Changing livelihood portfolios

13. • Example: Climate Adapting to
analogue tool
long-term
• Identifies the range of
places whose current climate
climates correspond to trends
the future of a chosen
locality
• These sites are used
for cross-site farmer
visits, & participatory
crop & livestock trials

14. Example: Climate services
• Met services produce
forecast information
downscaled in space &
time Adapting
• Farmers & met services
to greater
work together to ensure
forecasts meet local climate
needs variability

15. To transformational adaptation?
• Relocation of growing areas & processing
facilities
• Agricultural diversification, or shifts
• Livelihood diversification, or shifts
• Migration

16. Summary points

17. Climate change impacts on
smallholder agriculture:
• Are more complex than often assumed – and
happening faster than often assumed
• Are unevenly distributed geographically
• Depend on household and national capacities and
contexts as well as on exposure to climate threats
• Pose major threats to nutrition, welfare, incomes and
health among poorer households

18. Responding with climate-smart
agriculture:
• Is foremost about development – addressing
smallholder concerns, building assets & resilience
• Adds new actions on climate to sustainable
development
• Deals with trade-offs, not only “win-win-wins”
• Must be “landscape-smart” too
• Will not solve future food security on its own (need
actions on distribution, diets, waste)

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